Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398717#Comment_119398717

Sorry, your post was a bit ambiguous. We're in agreement then.

My point was that their chastisement post-WW1 was of their own making. All of it. And as I said they were an Axis puppet state in WW2.

Back to Ukraine, it was not reported upon much but Orbán regime actually made a u-turn in policy because there were large protests in Hungary over the regime stance on Ukraine, so they quietly allowed some arms transports which they were posturing about and refusing before.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389529#Comment_119389529

Indeed. In fact, it has revanchist ambitions and/or border conflicts with all of its neighbours maybe except for Austria...

So Hungary is not only buying more gas from Russia but also is exempted from the EU oil embargo. I don't know the details, is they exemption temporary?

If so I hope the EU won't extend it. We can't have a situation like this when we all (the EU states) prop up a regime that ignores essential EU rule of law principles and ignores rulings of the EU Court and the Commission on breaching the said principles while also undermine our security and foreign policy objectives by supporting our adversary (which happens to be a mafia rogue state).

And then we have this....

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62313579

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/despite-help-for-putin-and-nazi-talk-viktor-orban-remains-an-icon-for-the-post-trump-republican-party-1764509?ico=more_from_this_author

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Bobowen is now unbanned. Please post constructively.

nigeldaniel

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/28/zelensky-vogue-annie-leibovitz-smart/

This is a fair and just report/story on the Vogue episode. I saw no harm at all in it myself.

Quote from the story...

That’s because if the American public is not presented with a celebrity or an influencer or a model of some renown in conjunction with a story, it is likely to stop paying attention.

that explains things well enough. The Zelensky's are keeping Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the spotlight.

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400872#Comment_119400872

Hungary was a partner with Austria in the AH Empire and a full and willing participant in the First World War. But after the collapse of the Central Powers in 1918, Hungary suddenly discovered that it had been an oppressed subject of the Habsburgs all along just like Czechoslovakia, Croatia, western Ukraine and Southern Poland and tried to weasel out of it's responsibility.

bear1

Hard to see how much longer this can go on. The Russian economy is forecasted to contract less than expected, their currency is one of the top performers of the year and they are well stocked with resources.

It seems as of now that we may have totally screwed ourselves with the sanctions route.

How much longer can the west hold out? With Pelosi now planning a trip to Taiwan, surely now is the time to make friends with China and not piss them off?

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405004#Comment_119405004

Business journalists think it is not the case that the sanctions aren't seriously affecting Russia. The regime will never admit to it and they have no independent media. The place could be on the verge of collapse / anarchy and they and their state media would be assuring you that all is well.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405004#Comment_119405004

Russian economy will get into serious issues by Q1 23.

Now sanctions are just starting to work and you want to andondon them? It takes time....

The big deal is EU oil ban. Combined with the G7 oil cap on Russian oil this will have disastrous consequences on Russian budget. The lower the oil price the worse. We're now at $100 per barrel.

Russia budget gets into very serious issues at $60 per barrel. Now, this modelling is for a normal economy not at war. Financing war on top will become extremely difficult at this oil price.

Now G7 want to cap the price at $50-60. So go figure.

And before you tell me - Russia can sell the oil to other customers. Yeah sure it can but those customers are cheapskates expecting a serious discount, they are not rich or reliable customers and more importantly Russia has limited ability to deliver the volumes previously sold to the EU by pipelines by other means to these more distant customers. It will cost much more or Russia can't do it at all (how many warm water ports and how extensive oil tanker infrastructure Russia has?). Note India was buying at $35 earlier this year.

In terms of rouble being strong - that's actually bad for a country that exports only commodities paid in $€ = less roubles to use for like....everything... domestically.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405349#Comment_119405349

Hold on, I never said abandon the sanctions. We are in it now and to give up would essentially be throwing the keys to the continent to Putin.

With regards to the oil price cap, is this solely on russian oil? Because otherwise I can see OPEC getting antsy about it.

It's the same with China, the one country we shouldn't be trying to irritate at the moment. Pelosi should be told not to go and start removing tensions between the west and them. We'd need them on our side now more than ever.

You may well be right about q1 2023 and I hope you are but will the war be on by then? I can't see the Russians striking out week in week out and I can't see the west throwing more and more ammo at them, we'd only be weakening our own defenses.

At which point can the west say they've won and when can Russia say they've lost? Putin has totally fucked up.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406020#Comment_119406020

Ukraine is effectively defending us(not in first instance of course but that is how it has worked out)

We must provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself and make up whatever military hardware shortfall that may cause us on our own account.

Omelettes ,broken eggs etc.

No pain ,no gain .

Do I need to go on?

Not sure about Belarus ,if the Russians are using their territory to bombard Ukraine

Are they active combatants?

Will their regime fall if their support for Putin does not reap dividends?

Will we give it a push?

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406020#Comment_119406020

I would turn that around, and say China should be a little bit more wary of provoking the US (and the EU) right now.

On the EU side of it, I just feel the Chinese relations with the EU and most European countries who oppose this invasion must be almost irretrievably damaged by the sneaking regarder stance they took on the war. The die is (probably) cast there.

Unless something else surprising or unexpected happens (on China's end), I kind of think we'll see this play out in a slow and steady worsening of China-EU relations over the coming years, as the economic ties that have been built up since China joined WTO are picked apart and unplugged.

Also think you are wrong about (military) support of Ukraine. I think if they still want to fight on + try to push Russia further back towards pre war lines and force a peace on much better terms, it could continue to increase till they are pretty much fielding a large NATO-standard army (and perhaps airforce) against Russia, and we'll see how Russia's military copes with containing that + avoiding the fate of being run out of Ukraine on a rail.

edit: in final paragraph I'm assuming Russia continues with what it is doing now (seems to be trying to take over most of the country and ruin the parts they cannot take over), and there's no honest effort made by Putin to negotiate a peace.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406088#Comment_119406088

Belarus are allowing Russians to use their country to bomb a sovereign state.

Yes i would consider them an active combatant.

Not sure what your point is with that?

As for the first part of your post, yes that is how it is being done. To the point Poland is literally becoming Europe's most powerful army, something that would have been laughed at not that long ago.

But that comes at a cost, how that cost is absorbed is going to get harder and harder. Again, I'm not advocating we stop sanctions but there needs to be some sort of other play here that doesn't drag us all bankrupt.

And we aren't in a war economy state of mind, like in ww2 when the Americans were pumping out mind boggling numbers of tanks and ships.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406123#Comment_119406123

Point about Belarus is what do we do to counteract its actions in favour of Putin?

On the other point ,who is suggesting that all measures should not be employed?

Military means seem to be the most necessary and urgent but what "other sort of play" do you have specifically in mind (one that doesn't reward aggression and unprovoked invasion of a neighbouring country )?

Strengthening the alliances against dictatorships would be a consideration of mine but that is not done in a fortnight and we are on the back foot on that regards anyway(reports that Russia may have precipitated the collapse of the Italian parliament)

McGiver

Regarding sanctions.

Good paper on it from Yale:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures.

Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.

Whereas Russian bots/trolls/agents and all sorts of Alt-right or alt-left players leveraging or helping Russian propaganda efforts are telling that sanctions don't work and that we should "talk to Russia to get peace" (Orbán is one of such)...

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406123#Comment_119406123

Belarus are a tricky one in that their dictator is acting against the wishes of their population in letting the country be used as a launch pad. Lukashenko lost that election a couple of years ago - it's essentially a Putin puppet regime, something along the lines of Vichy France in WW2.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407525#Comment_119407525

Seems to me that the Russian economy may be a big loser just from the transition to clean energy resulting from the climate emergency

Nobody has the option of opting out and Russia's economy may be high and dry in the medium term ,war or no war if they do not get with the program.

Ironically the basket case of Europe.

Now ,I realize this could well not play out that way at all but even this war is a bit player in the coming Climate Action scenarios.

(They are even losing their "nuclear privileges" as their bluff has by now been called to a degree and the new kids on the block are just as scary imo)

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407525#Comment_119407525

I was reading a separate Twitter thread a couple of days ago from an analyst / academic saying the Russians are lying on an industrial scale about what is really happening to their economy - every set of figures they release is bogus and misinformation and designed to mislead.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407567#Comment_119407567

Yeah I wouldn't consider Belarus a sovereign country. It is under Russian rule in all but name.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407626#Comment_119407626

Indeed, and its important to remember that many Belarussian people are probably dead set against the war. They have no issue with Ukraine or Ukrainian people at all - this is all Putin's doing.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407626#Comment_119407626

Which is the future Russia intends for Ukraine and was the purpose of their invasion.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407661#Comment_119407661

Will be nice to see that domino fall if that plays out.Make that very nice.

Again what can we do to help their population if there is an uprising?

Will it still be all on Ukraine's shoulders?

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407869#Comment_119407869

The exiled opposition leader Tikhanovskaya is playing a very strategic waiting game. She knows that it would be very difficult to bring down a Putin puppet regime by force (not without a huge amount of bloodshed and Putin could well send the Russian army in). She's probably waiting for Russia to become weaker or destabilised at some point and that could be the time to mount an uprising - probably a sensible strategy overall.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407915#Comment_119407915

Well timing is everything

Too soon and a defeat would be guaranteed even if only for the medium term.

Also too soon might be a signal of disregard for the population?

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407969#Comment_119407969

Exactly - an uprising at the moment would be too risky and Putin could respond by sending the Russian army in and killing thousands of civilians (claiming that they are all "Nazis" and a threat to Russia etc). The waiting game is more sensible. It's frustrating for the Belarussians of course but they will just have to bide their time.

pixelburp

Had missed this but Kyiv are buying 100 howitzers from Germany (for the small price of €1.7 billion, oof).

Wonder how long they'll take to be delivered, and if Ukraine will have the support to upskill on their use. Interesting decision to purchase such heavy hitting weapons; hopefully they're mobile enough to avoid counter batteries and airstrikes. 9 are already in service since June.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/29/germany-bridge-layer-tanks-ukraine-forces-howitzer-sale-authorisation

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409014#Comment_119409014

That'll be years before they're all delivered , hopefully all over by then ... But Ukraine still has a peace to " win" or protect as well as this war ..

McGiver

Mounting evidence that Russia simply murdered the Azovstal POWs.

Graves in satelite pictures before/after. Damage seen not consistent with HIMARS.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1553519171845103616?t=IZPYouC9WfvRn9-vKj2VQw&s=19

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1553346547739410432?t=jbUvnQBuPLvMMkVSkHesDg&s=19

Russia is simply lying as always and is a terrorist state. The EU and the US, plus global allies must double down on the sanctions. Something has to be done.

Note: Gazprom Bank which is used to charge EU gas deliveries and to pay Russian mercenaries (they're mostly not a regular army now) is not sanctioned!

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407684#Comment_119407684

And yet we get sabina Higgins urging Ukraine to cut a deal with the monstrous Russian state. And don't tell me that she didn't give Michael d a sneak preview of the letter.

nigeldaniel

I don't honestly think champaign posh socialists are going to bother Ukraine or indeed President Volodymyr Zelensky. He is more concerned with those people with authority and clout. Ireland and the Aras naaa. I doubt it [the story about that letter] gets any attention outside the Irish Times.

This is more of a concern to Ukraine.

https://nypost.com/2022/08/03/ukraine-president-zelensky-says-china-must-not-help-russia/

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119423515#Comment_119423515

Champagne old boy😁

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411016#Comment_119411016

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

Does Amnesty International lying too ? I just can't understand,why you didn't believe it when war started ?

So what Amnesty International report mean ? That Russian Propaganda was telling Truth ? When British and Irish propaganda was telling lies ?

So let's look what BBC and other will telling about it but something tells me that they will avoid speak about Amnesty International Report!

So what about Tweets been reposted here ? Does they was lies too ? And I been banned here because was calling Lies the Lies name ? And I been banned for telling Truth? So what about it Now Folks and Mods ?

Good to see for the moment. Amnesty international are standing by their report despite all of the criticism from Ukraine and their supporters.

Just because Ukraine has been attacked, doesn't give them the right to do anything that they want and they can hardly criticise Russia committing war crimes when they themselves are also committing war crimes of their own.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119435244#Comment_119435244

Did you read the report?

Compare what Russia is accused of v Ukraine.

You have no moral compass if you think they are equivalent in kind.

"Many of the Russian strikes that Amnesty International documented in recent months were carried out with inherently indiscriminate weapons, including internationally banned cluster munitions, or with other explosive weapons with wide area effects. Others used guided weapons with varying levels of accuracy; in some cases, the weapons were precise enough to target specific objects.

The Ukrainian military’s practice of locating military objectives within populated areas does not in any way justify indiscriminate Russian attacks.

Not every Russian attack documented by Amnesty International followed this pattern, however. In certain other locations in which Amnesty International concluded that Russia had committed war crimes, including in some areas of the city of Kharkiv, the organization did not find evidence of Ukrainian forces located in the civilian areas unlawfully targeted by the Russian military."

Russia hits these kinds of targets regardless of whether military is there or not

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083686606/ukraine-russia-civilian-casualties-syria?t=1659736366439

"Investigators for the United Nations would later conclude that Russia was responsible for multiple war crimes during the 11-month campaign in Idlib. In one attack, more than 43 civilians were killed when Russian aircraft launched a series of airstrikes on a market. Civilians and other rescuers soon rushed to the scene, but within minutes they were met by a "double-tap" airstrike on the same area, killing scores more. About a month later, a separate airstrike hit a compound for displaced civilians, killing at least 20 people, including six children."

Russia shoots at convoy evacuating citizens.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-seven-civilians-dead-after-russia-fired-evacuation-convoy-2022-03-12/

How can Ukraine protect its citizens except with its military?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119435363#Comment_119435363

How can Ukraine protect its citizens except with its military?

Using Ukrainian citizens,woman, children as live shields as Amnesty International says it's right thing to do ? Put tanks on hospitals and playschool yards is right thing to do you gonna say ? And blame Russia forces after ?

The things what Ukrainian army do is terrorist tactics widely used in North Africa, you know that ?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119435963#Comment_119435963

No terrorist tactics is indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets. Which Russia is documented as doing in multiple recent conflicts with or without military presence.

It is executing civilians in occupied settlements like Bucha.

Where does amnesty say they are using them as shields? Ukraines military is their shield from Russian occupation atrocity and Bucha writ large.

Russia attacks civilians with or without military presence in multiple recent conflicts. How does Amnesty suggest Ukraine protects such civilians in market places?

Russia shoots at civilian evacuation convoys. So how does Amnesty suggest civilians are safely evacuated?

Russua shoots unarmed civilians in Bucha. Thats what happens if ukraine military not there. How does Amnesty sugest Ukraine prevent such war crimes?

Russia attacked civilian Refuge Mariupol theatre. How does Amnesty suggest Ukraine could have protected them?

Amnesty is living in a fantasy land where both sides are gentlemen.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119435997#Comment_119435997

Amnesty International living in a fantasy land ? Well,if you think so ,so read this report again if you didn't read it

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

pixelburp

Right there in the third bullet point:

Such violations in no way justify Russia’s indiscriminate attacks, which have killed and injured countless civilians

Even amnesty acknowledges this scenario doesn't excuse Russia's response; while if the war is on the streets and at the city gates, where else does one stage one's armed forces? Only a moral absolutionist would try to draw equivalence between the imperfect defence against a foreign invader rather than question the morals of said invader. Though hard to respect a user's bona fides when named for the Soviet Revolution. Kinda tips the hat towards deep bias.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436036#Comment_119436036

The Ukrainian army must simple take them tanks and artillery and go outside hospitals and schools ,go to the fields and fight like a warriors not like terrorists hiding behind woman and children backs putting them lifes at risk ! Other words Ukrainian army must stop use Ukrainian citizens as live shields ! And when those woman and children get killed the Ukrainian president Zelenskij blaming Russian army !

Will we call a heroes terrorists which keep hostages in school ? No ! So why we call Ukrainian army heroes which keep hostages in whole village ?

Fighting Tao

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436071#Comment_119436071

I suspect that you want the Ukrainian army to surrender to the invaders rather than defend their country and people. Russia should withdraw to their own borders to save lives of innocent Ukrainians (both civilian and military). If they hadn’t started the war people wouldn’t be dying and Amnesty wouldn’t be writing a report on it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436092#Comment_119436092

No ! I want Ukrainian army stop using woman and children as live shields!

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436071#Comment_119436071

If you think wars are still fought by gentleman generals meeting in empty fields, you're a naive fool. And clearly missed the last 300 years of history

Simple solution. Russia removes its army from the borders. Then Ukraine won't have to put its citizens in harm's way. How do you feel about that?

You'd think someone openly supporting the Soviet regime would understand you don't get to pick your battlefield when the enemy are at the gates of your cities. We're not idiots, your username isn't subtle.

Fighting Tao

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436095#Comment_119436095

So you don’t want the Russian army to withdraw because they are the ones causing all the deaths and injuries?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436096#Comment_119436096

Russia will never pull them forces to the border because they came protect people which Ukrainian army was killing last 8 years.

And people like you was watching it and doing Nothing !

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436113#Comment_119436113

Absolute rubbish. You're a shameless Soviet apologist. We're done; don't bother replying you're on the ignore list

Fighting Tao

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436099#Comment_119436099

Lies. Russia invaded, took crimea, and some of the east. They are 100% for any death that occurred due to their invasion.

kernkraft500

while everyone is pissing and moaning about the Amnesty report....ever think the Russian's shouldn't be there in the first place?

An unfortunate part of urban warfare is that you are stuck in urban areas... if you want to secure land, you have to have boots on the ground there....

"lets move to that open field beside that huge town we're trying capture, the Russian's we'll know we've taken it and not go into it, even though we're not there"

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436071#Comment_119436071

Evidence of ukraine keeping people hostages in schools? The schools were shut

Zero.

Evidence of of Ukraine refusing to allow people leave?

Zero.

Evidence of russia preventing evac of civilians and shooting at civilian evac convoys - already posted to thread.

This is just ranting worthy of the Russian duma.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436130#Comment_119436130

Everyone here understands the Russians shouldn't in the country in the first place ... except those apologists clinging to the idea they're some kind of liberator / protector.

To suggest the Ukrainians move to open fields is so hilarious, so egregiously idiotic it's a wonder a grown adult typed it out. Cos as we have seen the Russians are a truly honourable, respectful fighting force who'd let civilians flee in peace, then meet the Ukrainians in open ground for a jolly civilised dust up. If anything ever deserved a derisive snort...

Jesus Christ. I can't believe the Soviet Quislings are now reduced to claiming military doctrine from the Napoleonic era and older is what should be happening and shame on Ukraine for not standing in an open field for the Russians to carpet bomb.

More fool us for rising to this crap.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436135#Comment_119436135

So what will happen when schools will be opened ? Will this change anything ? What about hospitals,does they shut too ? Playschools ? Apartments blocks ?

kernkraft500

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436147#Comment_119436147

I just simply call them mongos