Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

fash · 01-09-2022 2:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119553898#Comment_119553898

It's weird the way the Americans keep putting their oh-so-important bio-labs in countries that Russia threatens to invade - & they keep them & the material there there even when certain that Russia will invade.

I'm just imagining the conversation somewhere in the US:

"Hey Bob, where should we set up this bio-lab- and remember, the last time you suggested we set up in Crimea and the time before that in Georgia and the time before that in Moldova and times Russia invaded and took them every time- this time we really need somewhere secure"

"Hear me out, hear me out- Russia will never think to invade Ukraine - a second time, I mean, we should definitely put it there, they'd never find it"

[Months later]

"Goddammit Bob, this is the 4th time - you're fired"

bobowen · 01-09-2022 3:13pm

I'm constantly amazed at the mental gymnastics performed by some posters to explain away any US or Ukrainian dodginess as Russian propaganda.

Victoria Nuland admitted they exist to congress and then proceeded to say that she is worried that the Russians will use them against the Ukrainians. If the US/Ukrainian labs weren't producing biological pathogens that could be used as weapons why would they be worried that the Russians could use them as such?

Chips Lovell · 01-09-2022 3:17pm

Mod Note

@bobowen It's been debunked. Drop it and move on.

The charter states:

"Deliberately misleading posts or posters aiming to spread misinformation will be sanctioned. We do not expect posters to be experts in all areas, however, the onus is on all posters to fact check their information. If a poster is corrected, or information corrected in a thread, any poster who continues to relate misinformation as fact will be sanctioned."

Chips Lovell · 01-09-2022 3:29pm

Mod Note

A a mod instruction is just that. It is not an invitation to continue that line of discussion or to start complaining about moderation.

Gatling · 01-09-2022 3:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119554741#Comment_119554741

Hahaha.

I'm posting the facts not make believe.

If you have a problem take it up with the mods .

Gatling · 01-09-2022 3:35pm

It was confirmed earlier Russia has Lost over 60% of it's entire tank fleet in Ukraine,in 7 months of the invasion,the biggest tank losses by a military since WW2 and to think it's not an actual war according to the Russians , just to compare America lost less than 15 tanks in combat in 20 years from the invasion of iraq and Afghanistan despite American forces facing daily combat for two decades

pixelburp · 01-09-2022 3:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119554840#Comment_119554840

Still got the source for that? That's a truly astonishing amount. Is there any sense of Russian factories trying to restore the losses .

And Russia are lucky their Eastern & Southern borders don't have as hostile neighbours as they themselves prove to be: 'cos it's getting to the point a belligerent nation would begin to consider expansion into Russia, and fancy its chances n' all.

paul71 · 01-09-2022 3:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119554937#Comment_119554937

I would say more than "fancy their chances". The Pakistani, Indian or Chinese armies would cut through the joke that is the Russian army like a knive through butter. They are quite lucky that the Taliban are there to protect them from Pakistan.

pixelburp · 01-09-2022 4:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119554960#Comment_119554960

Is that a realistic geopolitical scenario though? We're long past the days of wars over royal succession et al: unless there's some runway for a Reverse Russia, and they're invaded by a hostile power looking to "protect" a phantom oppressed community, I don't see Russia's neighbours licking their lips.

Gatling · 01-09-2022 4:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119554937#Comment_119554937

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1565324938235547648?s=20&t=SuNvOANd77-FwBXa3W3riw

Former US naval seal and conflict correspondent .

To expand on your question, Russia has always relied on using the other occupied countries in former Soviet union to build and repair it's vehicles and aircraft,but since the Fall of the Soviet union and the Baltic states becoming independent and members of Nato, they have lost all access to these countries military industries,and they never replaced themselves, they can rely on Belarus for some stuff but for how much longer is anyone's guess,

And yes Russia can build its own tanks which to replace their current losses could take decades in the current economic situation,all the while everyone else is modernising their defense abilities Russia is relying on designs from the 60s and 70s ,

They have been talking about the T14 armata tank for 20 odd years ,the most feared and deadly tanks ever conceived(their words) yet in that time they built 6 and lost to anti tank missles in Syria,they also happen to cost similar to the American F35 jet .

bobowen · 01-09-2022 4:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119555057#Comment_119555057

One former Navy Seal writing for a Pro Ukrainian publication is not proof.

timmyntc · 01-09-2022 4:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119555057#Comment_119555057

According to Oryx, an online investigative project documenting equipment losses in Russia’s war, Russia has lost at least 994 tanks as of Sept. 1.

However, according to estimates by the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent Russian online armed conflicts monitor, the Oryx database covers nearly 70% of the total equipment lost in combat by both sides, as it includes only fully-verified losses -- not every single captured or destroyed vehicle is pictured and documented.

Based on these estimates, Russia has lost nearly 1,300 tanks – an impressive 40% of its total operational tank fleet.

...

Official figures provided by Ukraine’s military are higher. As of Sept. 1, six months into Russia’s full-scale war, Ukraine has reportedly knocked out 1,997 Russian tanks, which is nearly 60% of Russia’s operational tank fleet.

3rd parties verify at least 1000, or up to 1300. Ukrainian DoD claim 2k, which is a stretch

That former US navy seal just retweeted it, and had nothing to do with the article.

Gatling · 01-09-2022 4:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119555135#Comment_119555135

I know which I don't believe .

And which I've been following the losses since day one .

Ukraine actually has more tanks than it started with 7 months ago .

From your own article.

"This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."

Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.

timmyntc · 01-09-2022 4:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119555189#Comment_119555189

ahem

However, according to estimates by the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent Russian online armed conflicts monitor, the Oryx database covers nearly 70% of the total equipment lost in combat by both sides, as it includes only fully-verified losses -- not every single captured or destroyed vehicle is pictured and documented.

Based on these estimates, Russia has lost nearly 1,300 tanks – an impressive 40% of its total operational tank fleet.

From your article. The only source for 1999 tanks is the Ukrainian MoD who of course will be biased, just as the Russian MoD is the same. The independent 3rd parties verified 1000 gone, and then based on estimates of what they could not verify push that number up to 1300.

Gatling · 01-09-2022 4:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119555267#Comment_119555267

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."

What part is difficult to follow ,

Equipment destroyed is significantly higher than is recorded,so your Taking one piece of opinion and another then saying it's only this percent,

Despite the article saying the losses are significantly higher.

Your clearly trying to find something here

timmyntc · 01-09-2022 5:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119555312#Comment_119555312

Re-read your own article, I quoted it verbatim. Its really very simple.

The Oryx database has verified ~1000 destroyed vehicles/tanks, with the caveat that many more are likely undocumented and cant be verified. The 2nd group "Conflict Intelligence Team", estimate that Oryx database is only 70% of the destroyed, and that a further 30% are unverifiable due to lack of photo/video evidence.

Hence, approx 1300 destroyed/damaged.

ilkhanid · 01-09-2022 7:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119553560#Comment_119553560

Apparently caused by sailors smoking near sensitive equipment or munitions, just like the stray cigarettes that caused the disaster at the Saky airforce base. It's been reported that a pack of cigarettes was found in Ravil Maganov's room. Coincidence? I think not!

jmreire · 01-09-2022 7:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119552432#Comment_119552432

Sure. Just like they held Afghanistan. Taking and holding are two different thing's. Putin has given it his best shot, and now he is scraping the bottom of the barrel in every sense, resorting to shelling from a distance and conscription. By next year, he will be in an even weaker position both militarily and economically, and Russians will start turning against him in increasing nrs when the full effects of the sanctions have kicked in, and the cash from the west dry's up as they will no longer be dependent on his oil / gas. For sure I would not be sharing your optimistic outlook for next year, on the contrary, I think that it will be a very bad year for him.

01-09-2022 7:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119556042#Comment_119556042

Remind me again how well the US and their allies held Afghanistan? Oh that is right. They spent 2 trillion dollars to replace the Taliban with an even more heavily armed Taliban while at that same time murdering innocent civilians.

Gatling · 01-09-2022 8:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119556090#Comment_119556090

That's fight your not going to win

Gatling · 01-09-2022 8:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119555369#Comment_119555369

It was your article I quoted .

The losses are significantly higher than posted according to your article which you then said it only equates to 40% ,

I haven't seen any experts on the ground say it's only 40 % ,

so far only you

bear1 · 02-09-2022 7:37am

The only country I can think of that would want some Russian territory is China.

I bet they'd love Vladivostok back, yet I don't think any one is stupid enough to launch an invasion of Russia.

Sam Russell · 02-09-2022 8:48am

I think Finland, Georgia, and Ukraine would like their sovereign territory, taken by Russia, back.

Kaliningrad might go into play as well.

Podge_irl · 02-09-2022 8:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119557988#Comment_119557988

I don't think Finland holds much of a latent desire to take back the Karelian isthmus. Whatever about Crimea, talk of internationally accepted sovereign Russian territory being re-appropriated is a bit silly.

Sam Russell · 02-09-2022 9:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119558008#Comment_119558008

Well, yes.

It is nearly no longer in living memory, but given the chance .....

Pete_Cavan · 02-09-2022 9:32am

Some parts of the Russian Federation may push for independence if Russia is sufficiently weaked. It could shrink a (tiny) bit without any invasion.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see China pushing for Vladivostok. They had their bluff called on Taiwan recently and didn't do anything, and the rest of the world is fairly united against invasions now, particularly anywhere west leaning, so can see them focusing elsewhere. They have domestic problems too so a nice flag-waving distraction could be nice for them. They'd have Russia over a barrel, if they threatened to stop buying Russian resources and stop selling Russia all sorts of things, Russia would have nowhere to look.

Brussels Sprout · 02-09-2022 10:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119553521#Comment_119553521

I went and watched a few videos from that YouTube channel last night.

Yeah that's not objective or even fact based. Basically the guy is taking "Russian sources" or the word of the Russian Ministry of Defence and just uncritically taking it as gospel. In every instance he's amplifying Ukrainian losses, minimising Russian defeats and basically staying on Kremlin message

There are other clues too. On each video he has a series of links. One of which is this google drive spreadsheet.

Two things you will notice if you open that up:

It's titled "Results of Special Military Operation", i.e. the official approved Kremlin term for it that nobody outside of Russian uses
This "results" spreadsheet has a tab for "UA losses" but doesn't track Russian losses at all (not very objective for an "analysis" channel)

Also the comments are chock full of people cheerleading for Russia and reveling in the supposed defeat of the Ukrainians (with particular bile being reserved for Zelensky)

Long story short. This is a channel for people who want to get their Russian propaganda with a veneer of analysis. It should not be used as evidence for anything though.

Brussels Sprout · 02-09-2022 10:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119558217#Comment_119558217

I don't see it happening. That would basically be an "existential threat to the Russian state" which is one of their criteria for using nuclear weapons. I think the Chinese are playing the long game with the far east. There has been a large migration of Chinese to the region. Give it a few generations and they might perhaps have the numbers for an "independence" movement.

As for the various Republics pushing for independence currently - most of them have been heavily russified. The only ones I could see making a push for it would, maybe, be some of the states in the Caucuses. That could only happen if Moscow was extremely weak and I don't see that happening any time soon.

Gatling · 02-09-2022 10:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119557821#Comment_119557821

There's been an ever growing Chinese population in Siberia, with locals saying the numbers far exceeds whats being officially recorded last year local officials raised concerns china could do a putin and place Chinese troops on the ground to protect their citizens and migrant workers ( pure paronia) from the local officials

amandstu · 02-09-2022 2:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119558571#Comment_119558571

Just what we need

A Russo-Sino conflict.

We would not be spared the fallout.

timmyntc · 02-09-2022 2:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119558571#Comment_119558571

With Sino-American relations quite strained, the Chinese would likely reluctantly stay friendly to Russia than have to stand 'alone' against NATO. Between BRICS and SCO, a war or separatism movement between Russia and China would leave both incredibly isolated and ruin all the geopolitical work they have both been doing to create alliances to counter us in the West.

Would be great for us having Russia and China infighting amongst themselves, as together they are a much more difficult collective power to handle.

Brief_Lives · 02-09-2022 5:38pm

i know ye don't want a news dump... but there are some very interesting stuffs happening...

Brussels Sprout · 02-09-2022 5:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119561074#Comment_119561074

It's ok to post something as long as you give your opinion on the matter as well. (At least that's my understanding of the rules)

Count Dooku · 03-09-2022 9:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119558571#Comment_119558571

Any better proof rather than Soros paid "locals"?

Gatling · 03-09-2022 9:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119563652#Comment_119563652

Soros paid.

Oh how original.

Count Dooku · 03-09-2022 9:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119563666#Comment_119563666

So no proof as usual

Fighting Tao · 03-09-2022 10:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119563652#Comment_119563652

Are you attempting to implicate George Soros? If so, there is a conspiracy theory forum for that sort of nonsense. But be prepared, as you will be questioned on your odd beliefs.

jmreire · 03-09-2022 11:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119558069#Comment_119558069

It may no longer be in living memory of tghe Finn's, but it has been passed down through the generation,,,I worked with a good few Finns, not of the war generation, but they are very knowledgeable about the winter war, and if Putins Russia ever disintegrated ( which is not beyond the bounds of impossibility , things being the way they are) I would not rule out a military or diplomatic operation to restore Finlands pre Russian invasion borders. And not just Finland, they are back bombing Idlib in Syria again, ( possibly in retaliation for increased attacks on Assad due to weakened defense position linked to the departure of Russian military assets? ? and rumors of skirmishers in Chechnya. Can Georgis be far behind if Putins war in Ukraine fails, and not only fails, but fails spectacularly?

Sam Russell · 03-09-2022 12:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119563960#Comment_119563960

You could add Kaliningrad to that list as well, plus Transnistria in Moldova as well.

I would imagine quite a few places will seize upon a Putin defenestration - six floors appears to be average.

Podge_irl · 03-09-2022 1:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119563960#Comment_119563960

Fair enough, attitudes will differ but I work in a Finnish company and am there a lot and this very much not my view. Its not even like the people stayed behind either, we are literally talking land will a fully Russian population.

Gatling · 03-09-2022 1:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119563799#Comment_119563799

Gotta love these guys who make a single post using a conspiracy theory and then run off never to be seen again

jmreire · 03-09-2022 2:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119556090#Comment_119556090

And your extensive experience of Afghanistan comes from what? or where? Newspapers ?. TV?, You Tube etc? Or did you actually live there at some stage? Or have you ever even actually been there??? The vast majority of Afghans would welcome back the US with open arms, and the welcome mat. Now you cannot say that Russia would get the same reception. In the history of Afghanistan, the 20 years the US were there, were the best years Afghanistan ever had. Most Countries are invaded to be robbed and plundered ( see Rusia / Ukraine conflict currently) And it's what the Russians did during their time in Afghanistan too, and used pretty much the same methods that are now being used in Ukraine. But I don't see you mentioning the trail of death and destruction they left behind them. To this day, Afghanistan is littered with the rusting hulks of Russian tanks, APC's and aircraft, Land mines kill and maim Afghans ( and others ) on a daily basis, many year's after they were planted in their thousands by the Russian's before they left. You forgot to mention either how many of these selfsame mines the US and its Allies removed, and lost many lives in the process.

The US left behind a good foundation for Afghans to build a modern society on. That they failed to succeed was not for the want of trying by the US. Yeah, but go on, blame the Good Ol US of A for all the worlds ill's. If Russia or the Chinese ever got as far as Ireland, you would be damn glad to move to the US. And while you and everyone else are free to criticize the US, try the same thing in Russian or China ( and many other Country's as well) Presently, I'd recommend criticizing Putin publicly while in Russia, or even outside it as recent events have proved for proof of this statement.

jmreire · 03-09-2022 2:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119564585#Comment_119564585

Talk to different Finns, get different opinions...but put it in this scenario. Putin Loses, and Finland Sweden etc. get full NATO membership, safe from further Russian ( or any other) depredations. If this happens, on one side ( Finnish) you will have a safe and secure Country, doing very well economically. On the other side, Russian side, what will you have? An economically defunct County, in bad standing with the rest of the world ( or the most important Country's therein) Now tell me after a few years of the planted Russians looking across the border at their successful Finnish Neighbours, while they try to survive on what's left of the Russian economy, and if a reunion referendum were to take place, what would the outcome be do you think ?

Count Dooku · 03-09-2022 2:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119564719#Comment_119564719

So moving attention from the number of Chinese in Russia to Saint George is effectively admitting that you posted a lie from Soros funded propaganda sources

In reality, numbers are declining and even reputable Western sources can see it

https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/the-myth-of-a-chinese-takeover-in-the-russian-far-east/

Gatling · 03-09-2022 2:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119565058#Comment_119565058

Sorros again.....

Your clearly posting tripe and likely has nothing to do with what's currently happening in Ukraine, likely one of these who denied the invasion of Ukraine actually happened

Podge_irl · 03-09-2022 3:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119564880#Comment_119564880

I talk to plenty of Finns - I'm there 3 or 4 times a year. I'm sure some feel strongly about it, but literally none I have ever talked to do.

Finland has been a better country than Russia for a very long time, and whatever about being "planted Russians" they are Russian and have been there for close to 100 years at this point. I think if there was a referendum in the area to join Finland (and why on earth would there be?) it would fail dismally, and Finland would not have much interest in welcoming 100s of thousands of Russians as Finns. The fact that the local population more or less completely evacuated changes the landscape quite a bit - there is basically no local populace looking to rejoin.

jmreire · 03-09-2022 5:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119565191#Comment_119565191

You could well be right,,,I was looking at a different scenario. And if Russia as an entity goes belly up after their Ukrainian mis adventure, things might conceivably get worse for them than they already are ( especially in Rural Russia ) In this case, a small Nr of nationalistic minded Finns might start a movement to reclaim their annexed property. It may not be very much on the agenda at the moment, but times and opinions change. Will be interesting to see 10 years down the road, what changes Vlada's adventures ( or misadventures , if you prefer) caused worldwide.