Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119601171#Comment_119601171

If the reports of disorganized Russian retreats are to be believed, coupled with the equipment lost in the failed assault on Kyiv, together with the naval and air losses during the war... Russia seem to be de-militarizing in Ukraine not the other way round.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119595998#Comment_119595998

US aircraft have been over ukraine and the blacksea since day one when russia invaded ,

The russians never had the testicles to do anything about them

@pixelburp forte 11 aka Global hawk a long with several Rivet Joint aircraft showed up on flight radar almost nightly and that's only the ones we are aware of

bear1

Seems we are watching a fantastically planned pinzer movement.

If the Ukrainians fully pull it off then I'd say that's close to game over for Russia.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119602215#Comment_119602215

Ah Russia still have considerable troops in the south and probably their best equipment too. They will be well dug in and the next counter-offensive will be completely different to this one.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ukrainians waited until after the worst of the winter for the next big push. Attacking in their winter will be extremely tough, they might take the opportunity to rotate their troops and give them some R&R. They could also plan and train for the next surge. Just bombard the Russians with long range artillery and drone while they suffer the harsh winter on crappy rations 100s of km from home.

Sam Russell

I get the impression the Russians are just lobbing their munitions in the general direction of Ukrainian troops - caring not a jot where they land. They appear to revel in collateral damage, and perhaps deliberately target civilian positions, hospitals and schools.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians appear to be targeting military positions, and particularly logistics and transport assets. They are making their accurate artillery pay big time.

Do you hit the tank, or the tank transporter? Do you target munitions dumps or nearby airplanes? If they are lucky they get both, but the logistics wins wars.

The Russians are far from home, short of rations, and the Russian soldiers expected the locals to be liberated, but the locals are not welcoming them with garlands of flowers - all of which affects morale.

beggars_bush

How long till the muddy season starts over there?

There won't be much movement after that

JL555

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119596942#Comment_119596942

I guess that's good about being allowed to have a conversation. We can agree, or disagree with each other.

Russia have started taking out Ukraine's electricity grid a number of non-nuclear power stations have been hit as well as substations, I don't think they have targeted the water network, although I did read of a pump out of action not sure if it was targeted or it was a result of the said targeting of power stations.

Pro Russian account with images and videos of the latest Russian attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure.

(https://twitter.com/mdfzeh?t=vlYNF4QgdfepQepIbf-1ng&s=09)

Unfortunately either Twitter or boards won't let me post an embedded link so you were going to click on it or copy and paste like old times.

Unfortunately this is no longer the case.

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1542459370633584640?t=KkqTRlrBBBayRKICaDAxjA&s=09

fergus1001

given that the lend lease act starts in october and the million strong Ukrainian mobilization will be well under way i cant see this ending well for Russia to be honest

pixelburp

It was unverified at the time I read it, but the Ukrainian push in Kharkiv was apparently so successful they found themselves only 30km from the Russian border. That's incredible, if true, and a real indicator at just how badly structured, equipped, and morale-infused these Russian forces are.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605606#Comment_119605606

Its all they have now. The population didn't great them as liberators, and the counter offensive has shown the occupation as incredibly fragile. It's clear that att this moment, Russia can't win this war conventionally so all they can do is swipe at Ukraine's infrastructure for some terror attacks.

Pete_Cavan

I don't think it can be overstated what a massive success this past week has been for Ukraine. They literally walked through the Russian lines meeting little resistance and liberated a big chuck of their country. They likely took more ground in three days than the Russians had in the previous three months. The Russians couldn't retreat fast enough, leaving significant amounts of equipment behind and having thousands of men killed/captured. Between new recruits from the liberated population and captured equipment/ammo, the Ukrainians are possibly stronger than before the attack!

It shows how little commitment Russian soldiers have to this war and how badly organised they are. Russian are unlikely to be able to launch any further offensives at this stage (they don't have the manpower, equipment or tactical nous to do so), they'll likely just try to hold what they have. The targeting of infrastructure as they retreated shows they have no intention of retaking these areas. The rest of the war will be fought on Ukraine's terms, they will decide when and where the next battles take place.

And, if more proof was needed as to how disastrous the past week has been for Russia, he Putin apologists have completely disappeared! In the most decisive week of the war so far, there has been very few posts in this thread, so much of the thread before this was devoted to dismantling their whataboutery.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606118#Comment_119606118

Well the more noted and obvious Soviet Apologists pleaded for peace with faux sincerity, so maybe they'll get it eventually: albeit on Ukrainian terms, when they offer to return the thousands of captured Russian troops increasingly cut-off and desperate. Whither those users now, playing the Both Sides angle, that Ukraine should surrender now, for the sake of peace. Peace, Pete! Peace! Snort.

As an aside, this counter-offensive has been instructive too at just how terrible the Russian intelligence network appears to be within Ukraine. Props of course for Ukraine keeping it all under wraps, but it speaks to a deep poverty of military nous and intelligence that the Russian Brain-Trust fell for the Kherson feint so completely - and over-committed troops in an ostensibly desperate attempt to prevent loss of territory. In doing so they now risk losing everything gained, bar Crimea. And even that might slowly find itself on the cards. Why not? The Russian Army is a paper tiger. The only limit might be the Ukrainian people's appetite for prolonged conflict to regain Crimea.

Much is spoken about the blackhats of Russian Hackers, or their disinformation prowess that informed Western elections of recent years. Clearly, that branch has no presence in the Military. The invasion might be a shambles - but perhaps too are their Cyber Divisions to have not found any forewarning of this offensive.

beggars_bush

I think people are overstating this Ukraine advance and Russian collapse. Lets see how it pans out over the next few weeks

timmyntc

Reports of Ukrainians having a force of up to 50k men involved in the Kharkiv direction, compared to Russian garrison there of <5k. Quantity obviously has its own quality so the Ukrainians can just storm the front with overwhelming manpower despite the losses incurred.

Russia obviously has its issues with military recruitment and wont mobilize fully for war, so it looks like they are being much more conservative with their limited number. Withdrawing to the banks of the Oskol to defend from there, and barely contesting most of those towns and villages in Kharkiv shows just how much they need to keep what little numbers of troops they have.

Also explains why their offensive tactic thus far has been weeks of endless shelling of Ukrainian fortifications before so much as attempting an advance - they need to go for the lowest risk advance for their own troops or they'll end up depleting their entire army very fast.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606335#Comment_119606335

Reports of Ukraine clearing minefields in the South on front in Zaporozhzhia oblast, so if they have a successful offensive there they could get to the coast, and split Russian forces in 2 between Kherson and Donbass. After that they could sit back and just go for logistics, the kerch bridge perhaps.

Russia have also announced the 'crack squad of chechnyan special forces' are back from their holiday and returning to the front. Coincident timing I'm sure.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606335#Comment_119606335

Wars ebb and flow of course: but like many things, morale and momentum are precious & invaluable. Here we have a high-technology, highly motivated Ukrainian army proving it can win confrontations and retake its land; versus a low-morale, logistically and technology challenged Russian army that crumbled upon the first proper aggressive action taken by the enemy.

100% there will be a response from Russia, it's coming. But suddenly, there's the smallest Question Mark hanging over the heads of Russian command about the validity in being there in the first place. The dogs on the street know the whole peace-keeping angle, protecting Russian speakers, is a facade - so what now? Does Russia let Ukraine become a meat-grinder, throwing bodies and inferior tech. at a problem that may not resolve itself?

It seems all Russia has right now are indiscriminate artillery strikes, and the hope the West caves come winter and the gas bills rise. It doesn't currently read like a particularly brilliant position; if Russia aren't careful it could be a repeat of the Ruso-Japanese War - or rather the aftermath thereof.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606365#Comment_119606365

Nothing I have seen suggests that the Ukrainians "just stormed the front with overwhelming manpower". The initial breach of the Russian defences seems to have been relatively small (at Balakliya and just north), not a major assault over a wide area designed to force the Russians to spread defences too thin.

There were a lot more than 5k Russian troops in the area, there have been suggestions of 5k killed and more captured. The Russians have lost so much in the first 6 months of the war that they can't maintain adequate defences along such a big front. They have a front line with little behind it, so once the front is breached there is nothing to stop further advances. They can't even mount a scrambled defence as the Ukrainians are moving forward faster than the Russians can retreat to a new position.

fash

At this point Russia has massive problems:

1. Ukraine is quite likely to gain the entire of northern Luhansk - they have the momentum and Russia lacks the equipment and manpower:

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1569056211676299269?s=20&t=TEHqJChZhCeEf1CY5_rWqQ

2. Russia doesn't have the manpower to protect all the places Ukraine can potentially attack, and has to worry about a strike south towards the Azov sea and Melitpol. There is also the issue that Russia has not reconfigured its plans based on its losses:

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1569174553179607042?s=20&t=ZQVWg-d1yYpH03PfDd-4HA

In addition, its (best) forces in Kherson are unable to retreat and are running low on ammunition and equipment. They cannot survive the winter.

Another problem: the forces that "cut and ran" - aside from the fact they have few weapons - are effectively unusable. Other troops cannot rely on them and they will spread bad morale if they are distributed amongst the existing Russian military population.

https://twitter.com/EliotACohen/status/1568928846006607873?s=20&t=RQ54YUey4WBKG012AUcAmA

In addition, mobilisation of the Russian population - aside from the fact it wouldn't be popular & would take a minimum of 6 months to even start (if the trainers were still alive and not killed in Ukraine) wouldn't address the fact that Russia lacks air superiority, sufficient armour, equipment, communications, intelligence etc. etc.

All in all, this is even worse for Russia than it currently looks like.

bear1

A massive blow to Putin.

The fact that more and more people in the Kremlin and in his own city are asking he be removed from his position must have him somewhat worried.

He spent the weekend opening up a Ferris wheel FFS. Beyond delusional.

Hats off to the Ukrainians, well played by them.

My question though, would they be as lucky if they tried to get to Donetsk?

amandstu

Talk that Russia is buying ammo from NK.Is there not an embargo on arms sales from NK

Can those deliveries be legally targeted in transit?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607796#Comment_119607796

Where could they be targeted?

Route is likely NK - China - Russia

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607796#Comment_119607796

It is likely to go via train to China and then on to Russia; not really any suitable points of attack for that (besides I'd have some questions on the quality of the weapons & ammunition in the first place).

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607796#Comment_119607796

I would presume that if true, the Russians don't really care. What can the West do: put sanctions on Russia lol? Heck there was talk of Russia simply taking all the leased passenger jets currently grounded 'cos of international travel bans - as yet again, what can the international community do?

Anyway, this the same North Korea that (apparently) still uses 1950s submarines? Can't imagine the quality of weaponry Russia are looking at be much to strike fear in the hearts of its enemies. Speaks to a desperate situation that it's having to buy off NK of all places. In fact, is it likely Russia might be buying ammunition for Soviet knock-offs?

Larbre34

Thats exactly what it is.

We aren't talking about ships and planes, just bullets, shells and rockets, all of which in China and North Korea come from Soviet era specifications anyway.

Won't make any difference though, if the lads supposed to be tossing them are running in the opposite direction.

Pete_Cavan

I wonder could buying from NK just be a front for China to supply Russia but keep its hands clean?

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607796#Comment_119607796

Don't know, maybe some country can seize them if it's going by ship (given NK is basically a global pariah state whose trade is supposed to be totally restricted as far as I understand, even if China help it get around this)?

I am sceptical/cynical of these supposed/rumoured arms deliveries coming from likes of NK or Iran and am wondering is it a way for China to help resupply Russia a little by the back door (obviously it won't be as efficient and effective as China just doing it openly but still...).

I wonder are the events in Ukraine going to be concerning for Xi/CCP and maybe they will blow their cover more + "come out" a little further as open military enemies of the US/EU/West. Try to save the bacon of the "no limits" genocide-buddy/partner in Ukraine. Something that should be watched.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607950#Comment_119607950

Why would they waste time and effort trying to get them enroute? Wait and the Russians will bring them right to within Himar / other range. They will make a nice juicy target, and what a bang they will make when they are blown up!!☺️

pixelburp

The first loyalist speaks out against the current course of the invasion. The Chechen Barbarian in Chief Kadyrov not quite slamming Putin but also not staying diplomatic either. The first signs of discontent among the brass? I suspect Kadyrov is ultimately a fringe figure among Russian hierarchies, but where there's one dissenting voice, more will come.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/11/putin-loyalist-kadyrov-criticises-russian-armys-performance-over-ukraine-retreat

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608881#Comment_119608881

Every one that causes damage to the Ukrainian civilians or military personnel is a shame on us all. (even the Russian casualties should be deplored insofar as they could be avoided)

Ukraine should have better things on its agenda than repulsing the mad crimes of its neighbours.

Nody

Here's a thread with pictures of some of the equipment left behind in one of multiple local and regional depots.

https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1569202777406210049

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609554#Comment_119609554

Yes it's a shame all right, and for sure, the world would be in a much better place, if Ukraine could live a normal life, that would be great!!! But when it comes to shame, all of that belongs on Russia. And I hope that future generations of Russians will indeed feel so ashamed of what they have done, that they will be unable to face the international community.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609621#Comment_119609621

Shades of Dunkirk with the equipment just abandoned. Assuming the equipment is still functional, that's some accidental boon for the Ukrainians.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609743#Comment_119609743

It was said on a report that several were working and some were easily repairable.

pixelburp

File this with heavy mounds of salt: Ukraine officials are claiming russian bigwigs and their families are quietly evacuating Crimea. Maybe it's some psy-ops to sew doubt and panic in the region, because I'd have presumed that was the prize the Russians had locked down every inch.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/13/russia-ukraine-war-blinken-hails-significant-progress-as-ukraines-forces-reach-russian-border-in-north?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-632075448f08acdcb33f8fa9#block-632075448f08acdcb33f8fa9

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119613974#Comment_119613974

I wouldn't be surprised. When the Ukrainians hit the airport there a while ago many Russians left.

Inquitus

Personally I think the EU and us as a part of the EU need to suck up all the pain it is causing and will continue to cause to ensure a Ukranian victory and a vastly diminished Russia.

It will hurt our wallets and cause us economic pain, but it is a price we have to accept to pay.

Slava Ukraine

saabsaab

Saw a Russian video and! some comments !about the latest defeats. One said that the Ukrainians were 'cheating'! Do they have to tell them all their plans in advance?

One Russian presenter said that you can never defeat a nuclear power! Afganistan? Viet Cong?

Inquitus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119614591#Comment_119614591

Their last resort may be tactical nukes, but I think then NATO would have to act. No nuke has been dropped in anger in 73 years

Inquitus

Good twitter follow to see Russian media attitude changes

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119614608#Comment_119614608

The problem with "tactical" nukes is the same as strategic nukes; they only work against static defenses / locations and if there are static defenses then Russia can simply use ordinary artillery to blow it up in the first place. In short there's nothing to gain with their use against a force such as Ukraine short of going after a city to salt the land and at that point you'd need to figure out if a) your nukes actually works (rumours that over 90% of the nukes are not functional due to funding siphoned away by the commanders), b) delivery system that actually works and don't trigger Nato (i.e. can you really get a relevant bomb plane there easily let alone talking ICBMs) and c) actually go through with it knowing the fall out (pun intended) from said action for your country. Hence the normal bombing of electrical key points but I don't see where nukes would really make an actual practical difference short of Mad Ivan approach to warfare ("We're crazy, we'll bomb anything!").

Inquitus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119614837#Comment_119614837

I agree with you, but Putin is in a box, what does he do, he can't mobilize as his failing economy will collapse, Ukraine has 16 Himars, as a NATO comparison, Romania has 60. He doesn't have enough troops, his supply lines are being severed, he is not a man to back down. It's clear Ukraine will deal with all hardships, so what options does he have?

And his mad TV folksnarw advocating tactical nukes to sober up the Ukranian resistance.

Amd while a tactical nuke may notvrurn the tide if the war, it would certainly be a devastating psychological and ecological impact.

Sam Russell

I suspect NATO are ready to intervene - they are waiting for justification. Use of any nuclear weapon or nuclear 'accident' would be that justification.

They currently are supplying advanced weapons to Ukraine that are better than the Russian equivalent, and possibly the Russians are running short of their top technology stuff. NATO are supplying very good intel to Ukraine which is proving to be invaluable to Ukraine. The Ukrainian troops are being trained in NATO countries, while Russia are using untrained conscripts equipped with running shoes.

Now does Putin go all-in or does he get the knifed from behind? What happens then?

bear1

Is Putin's demand to use nukes enough or is there a process?

Inquitus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119616589#Comment_119616589

Putin gives the order, it goes through a chain and anyone in that chain could refuse.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119616649#Comment_119616649

Wasn't there the famous case of the Russian officer that refused what appeared to be a valid order back in the day (it wasn't it was a mistake) and his refusal meant we are all still here.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119616841#Comment_119616841

Look up operation Autumn forge and Able Archer in the early 80s is where things almost set off MAD

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119616841#Comment_119616841

I know that there was a case where a Russian guy operating some kind of tracking instrument was told by the machine that a nuclear attack was occurring. By rights he should have sent the message up the chain but he hesitated because he knew what that could likely lead to and he thought that it may have been a false positive. As it turned out it was - the instrument was defective.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119616841#Comment_119616841

That was different. He didn't receive a direct order from a superior. Instead he chose to ignore what was an error with an early warning system basically the satellite system misidentified high altitude clouds as being incoming missiles but the officer who ignored the warning ignored it because it was only a few missiles the system detected when he reckoned in reality if you were going to launch a first of strike you would send hundreds of missiles.

Chips Lovell

Possibly this guy?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119616888#Comment_119616888

Yes, that is the guy. Good thing he decided to ignore the system error, although it is likely that once given the information about the incoming missiles, he's superiors would have made the same decision that the amount of incoming missiles was too small to be a real strike by America.

Fortunately, after this they developed a system known as perimeter or dead hand and ensures that even if they command centres are taken out, Russia can still respond with a nuclear strike.