Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119616918#Comment_119616918

Even if Russia stuffed a huge earthquake their system would launch missles.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119616933#Comment_119616933

Not quite how the system works in that it takes in data from multiple sources. But still a human has to make the final decision but by all means, keep believing that Russians are subhuman idiots if it helps you feel better.

Gatling

@[Deleted User] although it is likely that once given the information about the incoming missiles, he's superiors would have made the same decision that the amount of incoming missiles was too small to be a real strike by America..

Unfortunately nobody is able to say that,I'm sure about the time at the height of the cold war it wouldn't have taken much for the russians to push a button

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119616957#Comment_119616957

They changed the system in the last 15 years or so ,if systems get cut off from command and control they can in theory launch,hence the idea of what would happen if an Large enough earthquake had damaged lines of communication.

Able Archer was the closest thing to MAD the world has ever faced

odyssey06

Copying from the CA thread... Reuters reporting that Putin rejected a deal prewar with Ukraine on staying out if NATO

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

Pete_Cavan

I suspect Putin and his opinions on a nuclear launch, and everything else, are becoming less relevant. Some are questioning him publicly and the rise in suspicious deaths suggests some may be moving against him in the corridors of power. I doubt an order from Putin to launch a nuke would be followed. Putin may be spiteful enough to do it but I'm sure most around him value their lives and the lives of their children more than they do Putin's legacy.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119617081#Comment_119617081

This was never about nato so the idea is nonsense,I'm sure people are trying to spin things so they look a safe bet if putins is pushed

beggars_bush

Russia still occupies the area with the natural resources, so I'd say they'd be happy to hold fast in any negotiations

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119618742#Comment_119618742

They will take Kherson and likely turn to the donbas region, straight after losing Kherson Will be a huge blow to the russians ,they won't hold donbas once the Ukrainans come with the numbers and artillery systems,they have never really gone all out to take the east back,now they have the numbers , firepower and drive to take all of Ukraine back the east and Crimea included

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119618742#Comment_119618742

What ever leverage they had in the beginning, they have little or none now...and as for Ukraine, giving up one of the mineral / agricultural rich areas in the Ukraine??? I can't see it, TBH.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119618742#Comment_119618742

Problem is, their largest card - look how big and scary the Russian Army is; Come and Have a Go - has been shown to be a bluff and the first test against a better equipped, better motivated force, the Russians collapsed.

Now, army's regroup, rethink and it's entirely possible Russia will launch its own counter attack in time ... but with what? The country is obviously running into basic ammunition problems if they're buying from Iran and North Korea; the sanctions presumably biting in other respects.

Suddenly at the negotiating table, the choice is whether Russia loses its Ukrainian steals by force or by discussion. Maybe give Moscow first dibs on Crimean resources?

nigeldaniel

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/14/europe/zelensky-car-crash-intl/index.html

Ukraine's security forces will need to ramp up protection for President Zelensky after this. Could well have been one of those things as the President's convoy might have been driving fast.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620707#Comment_119620707

Driving fast is essential for security - sitting still or moving slowly makes the target easier to attack.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621077#Comment_119621077

Depends on the circumstances, but in this case, it was the other driver ( civilian one ) who hit Zelensky's car, and was injured, which is no surprise if it is armored plated.

Inquitus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119616589#Comment_119616589

Nor is Mr Putin, despite his lurch to dictatorship, Russia’s only decision-maker in this regard. Three officials carry the Cheget, or nuclear briefcase, which transmits orders to rocket forces: Mr Putin, Sergei Shoigu (his defence minister) and General Valeriy Gerasimov (chief of general staff). Some accounts say that two out of the three terminals must send a code for an order to be valid. If such a momentous order were to be disregarded or countermanded, it might have a fatal effect on Mr Putin’s authority.

Much of this is simply unknowable. Arguments over whether Russia would or would not resort to nuclear use have acquired a theological flavour in recent months. One faction argues that the dangers are so great that the West must coax Ukraine’s government into negotiations before things get out of control. Another retorts that the exaggeration of nuclear risks plays into Mr Putin’s hands, deterring the West from sending its most advanced weapons and constraining Ukraine from liberating all of its territory. In truth, the only person in a position to know with any certainty is Mr Putin himself.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/09/14/do-russias-military-setbacks-increase-the-risk-of-nuclear-conflict

bear1

Seems the Chinese have some concerns over the war which Putin had to calm.

By no means is it a sign that China is about to walk away from Russia but I would love to have heard what was said.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625843#Comment_119625843

Worth mentioning also that China, as part of the Budapest agreement where Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons, gave 'security assurances' to Ukraine. Let's hope China mentioned this to Russia specifically in reference to any use by Russia of WMDs.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625875#Comment_119625875

I think it's clear to say that that agreement isn't worth the paper it was printed on.

Brussels Sprout

The Chinese tend to be risk-adverse who are always looking to play the long game. I suspect that they must think the Russians are a bunch of hot-headed cowboys.

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625554#Comment_119625554

And even Putin doesn't know if his order to fire a nuclear weapon would be carried out. Sure, his closest generals and ministers would surely say "of course I would carry out such an order" right now, but faced with actually carrying out an order than could result in a nuclear holocaust is a very different matter. Most people have family to consider over Putin's ego.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626834#Comment_119626834

I have never understood the mentality of the RAF pilots that were tasked to fly the V bombers, armed with nuclear weapons, on a course for Moscow or wherever, knowing they were to drop their lethal cargo over a highly populated area and that would result in massive deaths, annihilation, destruction, and worse, and then turn their aircraft back towards home, having done the unthinkable, knowing the the likely retaliation from the Soviets would result in similar missions, flown by Soviet pilots dropping equally devastating bombs, destroying their homeland and probably resulting them having nowhere to go home to, and the deaths of all those they know.

Who could partake in such a mission? Firing an ICBM like trident from a submarine at least puts one a bit removed from the MAD enterprise - though what they do when the rations run out is anybody's guess.

McGiver

Meet Alexander Dugin, the chief "spiritual philosopher" of Imperial New Russia and one of the top ideological "inspirations" of Putin. Not that Putin has any ideology but he uses a pretense of ideology to brainwash the people of Russia. In fact, Putin has no ideology, it's a mafia boss of a mafia state, and only wants money (through power).

Back to Mr Dugin:

https://wartranslated.com/aleksandr-dugin-in-his-article-calls-for-mobilisation-of-the-whole-russia-to-fight-the-antichrist-western-world/

The end of the SMO means the need for deep transformations of the entire political and social system of modern Russia – the transfer of the country to a military footing, in politics, economics, culture, and the information sphere. The SMO could remain important, but not the only content of the Russian public life. The war with the West subjugates everything.

Not that Russia already doesn't qualify as Fascist State (authoritarian dictatorship), but this goes much further, this is pure fascism/Nazism whatever you label it...

pixelburp

Putin's own comments have been interesting, in the sense they were as dismissive of Ukraine's success as one would expect. Not like anyone would ever say "we got our àrses kicked, we got outplayed", but of some interest was the assertion that the troops in Ukraine were merely "volunteers" and that the full might had yet to be turned towards the theatre.

If those troops were the ones who wanted to fight, what exactly does that leave Russia? Conscripts are not likely to fight harder or longer than those invested - quite the opposite and I wonder if the brain trusts know this. Emptying the jails won't improve your forces' quality - only numerically and we've already seen how overwhelming numbers haven't created instant victory. When's the last time a conscript army won, and it wasn't a meatgrinder?

Also of interest was Putin's other comments about how they'd escalate attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. It's kinda all they have at the moment, their ground forces stalled at best. But between this and the apparent war crimes in Izyum, they're only giving Ukrainians more will to fight.

odyssey06

Isnt Dugin the one whose daughter was killed in a car bomb the Russians laughably tried to pin on Ukraine with some photoshopped fake ID?

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626987#Comment_119626987

I'd say that even back then, any crew member on a nuclear bomber would be psychologically evaluated to the nth degree, and updated regularly, that they would not fail to carry out orders.

20silkcut

He’d be a peripheral figure enough according to some native Russian analysts. Putin wouldn’t take him that seriously. He seems to be a figure that western journalists have latched on to. The idea of Ukraine organising a hit on his daughter has been equated to using armed robbery to raid a cookie jar.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119629745#Comment_119629745

That argument about them not sending their full strength army is exactly the sort of nonsense that you see peddled by pro-Russian accounts on-line. I remember when this war started and Putin gave that speech sitting at the desk where he was positively furious and made reference to the Nazi regime in Kyiv - I thought: "My god, he really believes this". I think he has basically gotten high on his own supply of propaganda.

The Russians sent a lot of their best and brightest in the first waves, especially in the attack on Kyiv, and they were decimated. This was down to failures in intelligence, planning, logistics and execution. They then retreated out of the north and reverted to an old-school artillery dominated campaign in the south east. That worked well for them (in that they were slowly grinding out pulverised territories) until the point at which the Ukrainians started receiving long-range precision fires (most notably HIMARS). The Ukrainians were now able to pick off the ammunition dumps that the Russian artillery relied on at will and began to turn the tide.

That leads us up to today

As of right now the Russians are heavily reliant on:

• The Wagner group (mercenaries)
• Chechen forces (whose ultimate loyalty is to Kadyrov who has been vocally unhappy)
• LNR & DNR conscripts (many of whom were press-ganged into action)

The propaganda would have you believe that the Russians have some supply of crack troops waiting in the wings who are just waiting on the call to join the fray. That doesn't survive even the most cursory exploration:

• If that were true why haven't they been sent in already?
• Why instead have Russians been taking active duty troops away from places like South Ossetia, Tajikistan and Nagorno-Karabakh destabilising these areas?
• Why has the head of the Wagner group been scouring prisons for fresh troops in desperation?

In reality Russia have a large population of military age men whose only experience may have been completing their military service or they may have served in the army years ago. For many Russians, in the wealthy Moscow and St Petersburg regions, this "Special Military Operation" has their support purely because it's not their sons, husbands and brothers who are dying in it. Instead, the burden has fallen disproportionately on men from impoverished far away Republics like Tuva and Buryatia. If Putin calls this war a war and goes for a general mobilisation it will likely become this Russian generation's Vietnam in terms of its unpopularity in the public consciousness.

It's a sign of how bad his position has gotten in recent weeks that he might end up having to make that decision anyway - especially if he truly believes that it will lead to success.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626987#Comment_119626987

The mentality was different , they both sides have been trained and indoctrinated to Able to take off knowing it was a one way trip, during the height of the cold war I doubt any bombers would have gotten close to Moscow, London and Berlin,and even on the remote chance they did get close they wouldn't have been anything but a suicide mission with no way back,

Wasn't there a movie about a b52 crew who did go on such a mission but ended flying around after with nowhere to land because the retailition strikes wiped out everything before they could return..

Larbre34

Indeed there was, 'By Dawn's Early Light'.

Its not a bad movie, it also demonstrates the fragility of command and control systems over nuclear weapons release when communications break down. Good cast too.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119629754#Comment_119629754

Indeed he is. He was the likely target of the bomb...

bear1

Biden now warning Putin against chemical and nuke weapons.

Stating it would change the war completely, I guessing it's a warning the Americans would join the war if he does

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119634141#Comment_119634141

US wouldn't join - but it would designate Russia as a terrorist state (with legal consequences from that), result in unlimited weapons supply & loss of on the fence status from Africa, South America & India (& perhaps even China).

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630319#Comment_119630319

From what I remember, part of the doctrine was that the bombers would use nuclear weapons to fight their way to a target, then back out again.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119634379#Comment_119634379

They would never have much past the Russian borders before being intercepted at that stage nato and other countries were operating round the clock air patrols or interceptor squadrons who could be out of bed and super Sonic in a few minutes,

A lone bomber could have got lucky but the amount of escort aircraft needed to protect one would have attracted every combat Air for hundreds of miles

Unless your flying a stealth aircraft later into the cold war ,

Sam Russell

It is likely that a V bomber heading on a nuclear strike would not be a lone bomber but one of every bomber and fighter aircraft they had, al on the same mission - along with USA attack aircraft and ICBMs. All heading for pre identified targets, some would be to eradicate defence radar and gunnery, some to attack civilian targets. It would only take a few to get through to achieve assured destruction.

I see Biden has issued a warning to Putin - Do not use nuclear or chemical weapons in Ukraine. NATO must be prepared to enter this fray under some situations - this might be one of them.

mulbot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119640254#Comment_119640254

It's been happening heavily over the last 20 years.

pixelburp

Well there's a development. On Friday, there will be referenda held to decide if Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (the latter only partially controlled) wishes to become part of Russia. Announced only today, with the votes happening 3 days later? Haha, god. Only the wilfully obtuse would claim these votes are going to pass the smell test.

Perhaps that's the one card Russia had we didn't consider: with the army showing an inability to actually win a ground war, Russia force the sham-referenda to happen ASAP; they rubber-stamp the inevitable resounding "Yes", so the breakaway regions become technically Russia; then the Ukrainian army suddenly becomes the invading force into sovereign Russia.

I can't see any other point in this sudden fast-tracking of referenda in the first place. Perhaps Russia needed some excuse to trigger a full mobilisation of its forces - the hand-wave that they're now being invaded might suffice.

Chips Lovell

Yep, and if anyone is in any doubt about the motivation of this, Medvedev has pretty much spelled it out:

"Encroachment onto Russian territory is a crime which allows you to use all the forces of self–defence," Medvedev said in a post on Telegram. "This is why these referendums are so feared in Kyiv and the West."

The only question really is if they're bluffing or not.

Inquitus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119642445#Comment_119642445

This is clearly the reason for the lightning referendums, it allows, under Russian doctrine, the use of nukes and will be used as an attempt to scare the west into less support

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119642445#Comment_119642445

Well we're definitely going to find out because Ukraine will be calling their bluff, that's for sure.

nigeldaniel

Russia's compleat dependence on fear is more than evident in their latest acts of increasing madness.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-20-22/h_42e40bebd81d25e48dadf41d742e267e

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1572201219975692289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1572201219975692289%7Ctwgr%5Ef3379ba95d77d261bea48d21ae35cf05fb6b6447%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2Feurope%2Flive-news%2Frussia-ukraine-war-news-09-20-22%2Findex.html

Russia is losing the war and their latest act on referendums says it all.

TheValeyard

Putin will speak at 6pm our time.

Has to be some form of mobilisation coming. But what will you give them? I refuse to believe that Russia has been holding back on tanks, bombs, planes, etc.

Also their is very little chance of creating a credible disciplined fighting force in just a few weeks to join this war.

Also expecting the usual nuclear threats. Maybe this time with added spice.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119642615#Comment_119642615

Problem is what Russia does after the sham referenda pass. The question if it's just pageantry or an actual path towards escalation. How badly does Russia want to win or save face that it'll legitimise what the rest of the world will see as bullshít? Is the hope that Ukraine will go home and get its shinebox?

TheValeyard

What's the point of the sham he must know that nobody will believe it. Its beyond pathetic.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119642974#Comment_119642974

To officially claim it's changed from a special operation and now is war on the motherland as Russia has accepted the regions as being part of Russia followed by partial mobilization. It's about the only reason I can see for the charade to make Putin not have to lose to much face in the change of status. Not that it will change how the Russian people will view it and it will be far from popular and the only benefit I can see possibly is that there are some war related laws (i.e. they can steal more, move more equipment around in the military, throw more people in jail or things along those lines because more untrained bodies to the meat grinder will not do a whole lot).

beggars_bush

Very similar to sudetenland sham before WW2

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119642974#Comment_119642974

As Nody already said, the play has to be to suddenly turn contested Ukrainian land into "Russia", and so changing the whole nature of the theatre of war. Presumably the broader intent was this to happen across all of Ukraine, until the locals said uhm, no thanks.

bear1

It has just become even more dangerous now.

Turkey has even now said that Russia should leave Ukraine... Turkey!

India also voicing their displeasure.

Ukraine needs to get those towns asap. I fear once the votes pass and they absorb it into Russia then that will be end of it.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119643139#Comment_119643139

Why would that be the end of it? It's not like the Ukrainians, who are currently rolling back Russian gains, will care one jot what the Russians think is or is not part of Russia. Same goes for Ukraine's western backers.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119643139#Comment_119643139

It won't change Ukraine's resolve. The provinces are theirs to retake. The only thing that might happen - and it's a big "might" IMO - is the international community blinks and decides to strongarm a ceasefire and Ukraine to recognise the legitimacy of those referenda. Which seems unlikely, given how obviously sham the elections are going to be. It'd take some poker face for the West to suddenly pretend the referenda were legit.

Assuming they go ahead! It's also possible the remaining fight in those regions decided now's the time to react and interfere with the "election" process, making it impossible to conduct.