Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

McGiver

Orbán should shut up and disappear. Absolute disgrace. Putin's mate and trojan horse in the EU.

https://www.rferl.org/a/orban-ukraine-war-us-russia-talks/31956804.html

Szijjarto, Hungarian Orbán mafia Foreign Minister was in Moscow last week, buying more gas and talking "peaceful solutions in Ukraine". Absolutely spineless traitors who should bé thrown out of the EU immediately.

https://www.rferl.org/a/hungary-to-drop-energy-price-caps-high-consumption-clients/31953528.html

Just look at the picture! This is highly disturbing...

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119386887#Comment_119386887

Yes, that's the only thing that will ever work with this mafia state.

Now, the thugs are trying to blackmail us all with gas, as expected from the mafia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-works-resume-grain-exports-flags-russian-strikes-risk-2022-07-25/

The EU collectively needs to bridge this winter at all costs and starve them out. There's no way back. It has to happen.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119387058#Comment_119387058

The EU collectively needs to bridge this winter at all costs and starve them out.

Starve who out? The Russians? Last time I checked, they were net exporters of food, fertiliser, energy etc.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119386904#Comment_119386904

I don't understand how Hungary, of all countries, would have a leader this obsequious towards Russia. Hungary. Unless locals simply don't see these comments from Orbán mind you; this is a country where in the run-up to the recent General Election, the opposition parties got 5 minutes airtime - combined.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119388098#Comment_119388098

Quelle surprise, the voters like when their own needs are put first. Hungary would be screwed without Russian oil & gas, so rather than throwing their economy into oblivion for a country they really arent that dependent on, they prioritise their own economy and peoples livelihoods instead. Who would have thought that would be popular 🤔

beggars_bush

Russia still have plenty of customers for gas, oil and other natural resources

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119386904#Comment_119386904

Lavrov looks like he might just eat the Hungarian FM in that photo his grin is so wide! Hungary have made a monkey out of the EU and all of us though, I cannot deny that.

They have slowed down and obstructed adoption of sanctions, tried to make delivery of weapons to Ukraine more difficult and its looking like they will keep their Russian gas flowing + smirk and cock a snook at the other countries scrambling to sort out energy supplies, all the while availing in full of advantages of their EU membership.

There's also the optics element of it, where Órban utterly humiliated the EU commission and the other 26 leaders, made them crawl and beg to him to get the previous oil sanctions through - e.g. throwing in special exemption from sanctions for Patriarch Kirill at the last minute as a favour to Putin!

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/06/02/patriarch-kirill-excluded-from-eu-sanctions-after-hungary-s-objection

Hopefully there'll be a showdown with them at some point. Don't see how it can carry on as it is. Unfortunately Polish govt. are (as far as I know...haven't read anything to contrary) still committed to acting as their prop and preventing any serious EU action against them. I do worry this may not change, even if they are unhappy with Órban's friendship with Russia.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119388203#Comment_119388203

And historically Hungary has been bet into a corner and treated like a vassal state by both the Allies and the Soviet Union over the last 100 years. So yes a selfish attitude really does pay off. And running with the hare and hunting with the hound during world war 2. Hungary is not a country to be held up as an example of anything.

yagan

Hungary like Russia has a revanchist ambition towards areas in Romania.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389529#Comment_119389529

Hungary has a revanchist ambition towards areas in Ukraine too. Transcarpathia has many Hungarian speakers in parts

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119388040#Comment_119388040

How long do you think that situation is going to continue, under the sanctions regime?

Russians are completely dependent on the West for their technological needs in most areas of production, and already long out of spares for most of their (mostly German) machine tools and other means of production. That was the flipside of Germany’s self-developing (but hardly altruistic) dependency on Russian energy.

All well documented already, including their desperate attempts to hire out software devs for updates and patches for that western equipment (because, again, sanctions: they’re not getting them form western manufacturers any more)…in the face of a brain drain of properly epic proportions.

They may well be warmer than Europeans this winter. Fat lot of good that’ll do when they can barely feed themselves, with their agri-food sectors in production stop for lack of equipment.

Meanwhile, about Orban…

https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1551908898575196160?s=20&t=MhCuvDnxZCsBCtk78VXXJA

…some Hungarians are starting to smell the wind, looks like.

nigeldaniel

Not sure if this could go in the Ukraine thread or the Russian thread but I will drop it in here.

Poland is buying a shed load of heavy gear from South Korea.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/27/asia/south-korea-poland-tanks-howitzer-ukraine-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

Quote from the above link.

will see Warsaw purchase 980 tanks based on the South Korean K2 model, 648 self-propelled K9 armoured howitzers, and 48 FA-50 fighter jets,

I am not suggesting it will all end up in Ukraine at all!!!

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389363#Comment_119389363

Didn't know that! Utterly despicable and traiterous behaviour, disgusting. I don't support this from my taxpayers money. This doesn't belong to the EU or NATO, it's a serious vulnerability and Russian trojan horse. I'm pretty sure they are allowing KGB operating there too! Very very bad.

"Patriarch" is a gangster and removing him from the sanction list is just plain wrong.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119388203#Comment_119388203

Bollox, you don't have any idea about Hungary or the CEE.

Czechia which was, thanks to its stupid inaction akin to the German one, a country most dependent on Russia gas (100% dependent) has just negotiated a gas contract from the Dutch LNG terminal and that replaced 33% of the consumption. Czech government is amongst the most hawkish towards Russia now and prefers fight for human rights & freedom and against the terrorist Russian state even at the cost of some domestic hardship.

Bulgaria also extremely dependent on Russian gas and criminally disconnected from the supply by Russian gangster state breaching contracts, has also diversified gas supplies from Azerbaijan and by getting US LNG gas.

Where there is a will there's a way.

Hungary regime is an authoritarian regime in bed with the Russian mafia regime and is dependent on it for its survival. They are traitors of the EU and not friends of Hungarian people as you try to frame them into. In fact, they are enemies of the Hungarian people by not isolating Russia as the rest of the EU attempts...

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389434#Comment_119389434

Nonsense.

Historically, Hungary was kicking the ball way above its league and ability. Very high ambitions but much lower ability. They acquired some Ottoman imperialistic habits due to being occupied by them which linger to this very day and are unusual for the region. Austrians and Hungarians were both imperialists but Austria moved on and Hungary didn't. Hungarians are still very resentful and frustrated by the loss of the "empire", the narrative and feelings are similar to the Versailles Treaty situation. There are no bigger whiners, complainers and resenters in the region than Hungarians.

Don't forget that Hungary was on the wrong side in both WW1 and WW2, was a fascist state in the interwar period, had (and still has) border and ethnic conflicts with most of its neighbours.

Hungary is no saint in the CEE region. Long way to go for them to draw the line with the past and become a democratic non-nationalist (aka not chauvinist) EU country.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389316#Comment_119389316

Yes but no easy way of delivering the products.

And all the customers are much poorer and want serious discounts.

Higher delivery costs + lower selling prices = less money for the Russian mafia.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/g7-aim-have-price-cap-russian-oil-place-before-dec-5-2022-07-27/

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398503#Comment_119398503

Why Nonsense my post agrees with everything you say. They were chastised by the allies post world war 1 and were brutally oppressed by the Soviets post world war 2. And always seem to have a habit of backing the wrong horse and picking the wrong side. Not a country I would have any great sympathy or admiration for with their misplaced imperialistic tendencies bar maybe the brief period around 1956. Where they were led to believe help might be forthcoming from the west.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398409#Comment_119398409

Yes, am just hoping it is coming towards an end-game here quite soon (like, this year) where Orbán (put the accent in right place this time!) is faced down by the EU, the money gets cut off completely and say in the European council removed.

I'd speculate the NATO (& EU) countries who are supplying Ukraine with various kinds of aid and weapons must have to keep them (and possibly Turkey too?) firmly out of the loop about certain things. It's not ideal in a military alliance I'm sure.

edit: There have been some protests there recently too, so it makes me unsure if the election results/electoral system flatter the ruling party and Orbán + make them look much more popular and in firmer control in Hungary than they really are. If the outside pressure goes up (starting with a loss of all the EU funding) maybe the govt. will crack and be ousted, you never know.

bobowen

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukraine-president-first-lady-pose-for-vogue-photo-shoot-receives-mixed-reactions-3198892

A Vogue photoshoot while Ukrainian wives and mothers bury the thousands of men that he conscripted and sent to the trenches.

A man of integrity.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Bobowen, no trolling please. Banned for a week. Other posters, please do not reply or comment @ him until the week has passed

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398717#Comment_119398717

Sorry, your post was a bit ambiguous. We're in agreement then.

My point was that their chastisement post-WW1 was of their own making. All of it. And as I said they were an Axis puppet state in WW2.

Back to Ukraine, it was not reported upon much but Orbán regime actually made a u-turn in policy because there were large protests in Hungary over the regime stance on Ukraine, so they quietly allowed some arms transports which they were posturing about and refusing before.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389529#Comment_119389529

Indeed. In fact, it has revanchist ambitions and/or border conflicts with all of its neighbours maybe except for Austria...

So Hungary is not only buying more gas from Russia but also is exempted from the EU oil embargo. I don't know the details, is they exemption temporary?

If so I hope the EU won't extend it. We can't have a situation like this when we all (the EU states) prop up a regime that ignores essential EU rule of law principles and ignores rulings of the EU Court and the Commission on breaching the said principles while also undermine our security and foreign policy objectives by supporting our adversary (which happens to be a mafia rogue state).

And then we have this....

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62313579

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/despite-help-for-putin-and-nazi-talk-viktor-orban-remains-an-icon-for-the-post-trump-republican-party-1764509?ico=more_from_this_author

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Bobowen is now unbanned. Please post constructively.

nigeldaniel

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/28/zelensky-vogue-annie-leibovitz-smart/

This is a fair and just report/story on the Vogue episode. I saw no harm at all in it myself.

Quote from the story...

That’s because if the American public is not presented with a celebrity or an influencer or a model of some renown in conjunction with a story, it is likely to stop paying attention.

that explains things well enough. The Zelensky's are keeping Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the spotlight.

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400872#Comment_119400872

Hungary was a partner with Austria in the AH Empire and a full and willing participant in the First World War. But after the collapse of the Central Powers in 1918, Hungary suddenly discovered that it had been an oppressed subject of the Habsburgs all along just like Czechoslovakia, Croatia, western Ukraine and Southern Poland and tried to weasel out of it's responsibility.

bear1

Hard to see how much longer this can go on. The Russian economy is forecasted to contract less than expected, their currency is one of the top performers of the year and they are well stocked with resources.

It seems as of now that we may have totally screwed ourselves with the sanctions route.

How much longer can the west hold out? With Pelosi now planning a trip to Taiwan, surely now is the time to make friends with China and not piss them off?

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405004#Comment_119405004

Business journalists think it is not the case that the sanctions aren't seriously affecting Russia. The regime will never admit to it and they have no independent media. The place could be on the verge of collapse / anarchy and they and their state media would be assuring you that all is well.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405004#Comment_119405004

Russian economy will get into serious issues by Q1 23.

Now sanctions are just starting to work and you want to andondon them? It takes time....

The big deal is EU oil ban. Combined with the G7 oil cap on Russian oil this will have disastrous consequences on Russian budget. The lower the oil price the worse. We're now at $100 per barrel.

Russia budget gets into very serious issues at $60 per barrel. Now, this modelling is for a normal economy not at war. Financing war on top will become extremely difficult at this oil price.

Now G7 want to cap the price at $50-60. So go figure.

And before you tell me - Russia can sell the oil to other customers. Yeah sure it can but those customers are cheapskates expecting a serious discount, they are not rich or reliable customers and more importantly Russia has limited ability to deliver the volumes previously sold to the EU by pipelines by other means to these more distant customers. It will cost much more or Russia can't do it at all (how many warm water ports and how extensive oil tanker infrastructure Russia has?). Note India was buying at $35 earlier this year.

In terms of rouble being strong - that's actually bad for a country that exports only commodities paid in $€ = less roubles to use for like....everything... domestically.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405349#Comment_119405349

Hold on, I never said abandon the sanctions. We are in it now and to give up would essentially be throwing the keys to the continent to Putin.

With regards to the oil price cap, is this solely on russian oil? Because otherwise I can see OPEC getting antsy about it.

It's the same with China, the one country we shouldn't be trying to irritate at the moment. Pelosi should be told not to go and start removing tensions between the west and them. We'd need them on our side now more than ever.

You may well be right about q1 2023 and I hope you are but will the war be on by then? I can't see the Russians striking out week in week out and I can't see the west throwing more and more ammo at them, we'd only be weakening our own defenses.

At which point can the west say they've won and when can Russia say they've lost? Putin has totally fucked up.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406020#Comment_119406020

Ukraine is effectively defending us(not in first instance of course but that is how it has worked out)

We must provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself and make up whatever military hardware shortfall that may cause us on our own account.

Omelettes ,broken eggs etc.

No pain ,no gain .

Do I need to go on?

Not sure about Belarus ,if the Russians are using their territory to bombard Ukraine

Are they active combatants?

Will their regime fall if their support for Putin does not reap dividends?

Will we give it a push?