Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Pete_Cavan

So the Ukrainians have breached (and likely encircled) the Russian second line of defence over a wide front south of Kharkiv and are on the march towards Izyum. That apparently is a major rail hub and if the Ukrainians take control of it, they will hobble already poor Russian logistics in that region. Good map here showing big change in a short space of time;

https://twitter.com/m/status/1568026431028097024

In the last week or so, the Ukrainians have made huge gains, probably more then the Russians made in the previous two months. Ukraine had been talking of taking back Kherson, so Russia sent soldiers from Donbas to reinforce there but left Kharkiv exposed, the Ukrainians shouted "look over there" and the Russias fell for it. No doubt we'll have the usual suspects in soon to tell us this is all part of the Russian plan and that they have something in reserve. Russia could try to drag more antiquated Soviet materiel out of storage and intensify their recruitment of cannon fodder, but if there was any mileage in that for them, they'd have done it already.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119595474#Comment_119595474

Kharkiv [edit] IS opportunistic - it wasn't Ukraine's actual primary aim. Ukraine's aim was to trap as many Russians (especially their experienced guys) as possible in Kherson - destroy their escape routes and then slowly & methodically destroy them while losing as little manpower as possible.

It just so happened that in doing that, and a lot faster than expected, Russia depleted its manpower elsewhere enough that it provided Ukraine with a really tempting target in Karkhiv.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119595708#Comment_119595708

I wasn't suggesting that there is anything opportunistic about it. What we are seeing now was obviously well planned in advance, including letting the Russians believe something else.

pixelburp

Aside from the weapons being sent to Ukraine, we also know the US had been sharing satellite info to their military. But that's the stuff we can know about. You'd have to wonder how many consultations and quiet tactical training sessions various limbs of the Ukrainian military have been receiving. The poverty of Russian logistical and hierarchical infrastructure is well established and documented by now; I'd be shocked if the top brass in the Ukraine army weren't being given fast-track instructions on how to war better by those with more experience or skill.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119595885#Comment_119595885

It's well documented that Ukrainian soldiers are getting trained by other nations, the equipment they are receiving would be of no use without proper training.

You can also be sure that the US military are using all their intelligence resources and is treating this as if they were actively at war in all bar actually engaging in combat. They are collecting huge amounts of information, processing it, playing out scenarios, developing strategies and feeding the best tactics to the Ukrainians, along with follow up actions depending on how successful each action is and how the Russians react. Its this behind the scenes stuff that is so important, nothing is done without a specific purpose.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119595970#Comment_119595970

It might be a bit atypical in that NATO can use its full surveillance \ intel gathering against Russia, while knowing those (vulnerable?) assets can't be touched as they are outside Ukranian airpsace. In a wider conflict with a major power that wouldn't apply.

JL555

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588606#Comment_119588606

It seems you tend to cautiously agree in the most part. Although some of your paragraphs may have been in reference to a different post or something you read elsewhere?

paul71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119596832#Comment_119596832

No JL, he did not agree with you. He took your post into careful consideration. Clinically analysed it, dismissed the waffle and addressed the points you made. Then he clearly and eloquently shredded it as nonsense.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119595474#Comment_119595474

The Guardian is reporting that the Ukrainians have indeed taken Kupiansk and Izium, the latter you mentioned as a rail hub. The Russian puppet governor of Kharkiv told residents to flee for Russia as it had been retaken - will be interesting how many, if any, take him up on the offer off safe passage.

Pete_Cavan

Russia now claiming they are "withdrawing" troops from the Kharkiv region. The truth is their soldiers are getting the hell out of dodge as staying there means either being killed or captured. Moscow trying to claim they have any control over the situation is laughable. Well done Ukraine, they executed that counter-offensive brilliantly.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119601171#Comment_119601171

If the reports of disorganized Russian retreats are to be believed, coupled with the equipment lost in the failed assault on Kyiv, together with the naval and air losses during the war... Russia seem to be de-militarizing in Ukraine not the other way round.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119595998#Comment_119595998

US aircraft have been over ukraine and the blacksea since day one when russia invaded ,

The russians never had the testicles to do anything about them

@pixelburp forte 11 aka Global hawk a long with several Rivet Joint aircraft showed up on flight radar almost nightly and that's only the ones we are aware of

bear1

Seems we are watching a fantastically planned pinzer movement.

If the Ukrainians fully pull it off then I'd say that's close to game over for Russia.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119602215#Comment_119602215

Ah Russia still have considerable troops in the south and probably their best equipment too. They will be well dug in and the next counter-offensive will be completely different to this one.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ukrainians waited until after the worst of the winter for the next big push. Attacking in their winter will be extremely tough, they might take the opportunity to rotate their troops and give them some R&R. They could also plan and train for the next surge. Just bombard the Russians with long range artillery and drone while they suffer the harsh winter on crappy rations 100s of km from home.

Sam Russell

I get the impression the Russians are just lobbing their munitions in the general direction of Ukrainian troops - caring not a jot where they land. They appear to revel in collateral damage, and perhaps deliberately target civilian positions, hospitals and schools.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians appear to be targeting military positions, and particularly logistics and transport assets. They are making their accurate artillery pay big time.

Do you hit the tank, or the tank transporter? Do you target munitions dumps or nearby airplanes? If they are lucky they get both, but the logistics wins wars.

The Russians are far from home, short of rations, and the Russian soldiers expected the locals to be liberated, but the locals are not welcoming them with garlands of flowers - all of which affects morale.

beggars_bush

How long till the muddy season starts over there?

There won't be much movement after that

JL555

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119596942#Comment_119596942

I guess that's good about being allowed to have a conversation. We can agree, or disagree with each other.

Russia have started taking out Ukraine's electricity grid a number of non-nuclear power stations have been hit as well as substations, I don't think they have targeted the water network, although I did read of a pump out of action not sure if it was targeted or it was a result of the said targeting of power stations.

Pro Russian account with images and videos of the latest Russian attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure.

(https://twitter.com/mdfzeh?t=vlYNF4QgdfepQepIbf-1ng&s=09)

Unfortunately either Twitter or boards won't let me post an embedded link so you were going to click on it or copy and paste like old times.

Unfortunately this is no longer the case.

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1542459370633584640?t=KkqTRlrBBBayRKICaDAxjA&s=09

fergus1001

given that the lend lease act starts in october and the million strong Ukrainian mobilization will be well under way i cant see this ending well for Russia to be honest

pixelburp

It was unverified at the time I read it, but the Ukrainian push in Kharkiv was apparently so successful they found themselves only 30km from the Russian border. That's incredible, if true, and a real indicator at just how badly structured, equipped, and morale-infused these Russian forces are.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605606#Comment_119605606

Its all they have now. The population didn't great them as liberators, and the counter offensive has shown the occupation as incredibly fragile. It's clear that att this moment, Russia can't win this war conventionally so all they can do is swipe at Ukraine's infrastructure for some terror attacks.

Pete_Cavan

I don't think it can be overstated what a massive success this past week has been for Ukraine. They literally walked through the Russian lines meeting little resistance and liberated a big chuck of their country. They likely took more ground in three days than the Russians had in the previous three months. The Russians couldn't retreat fast enough, leaving significant amounts of equipment behind and having thousands of men killed/captured. Between new recruits from the liberated population and captured equipment/ammo, the Ukrainians are possibly stronger than before the attack!

It shows how little commitment Russian soldiers have to this war and how badly organised they are. Russian are unlikely to be able to launch any further offensives at this stage (they don't have the manpower, equipment or tactical nous to do so), they'll likely just try to hold what they have. The targeting of infrastructure as they retreated shows they have no intention of retaking these areas. The rest of the war will be fought on Ukraine's terms, they will decide when and where the next battles take place.

And, if more proof was needed as to how disastrous the past week has been for Russia, he Putin apologists have completely disappeared! In the most decisive week of the war so far, there has been very few posts in this thread, so much of the thread before this was devoted to dismantling their whataboutery.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606118#Comment_119606118

Well the more noted and obvious Soviet Apologists pleaded for peace with faux sincerity, so maybe they'll get it eventually: albeit on Ukrainian terms, when they offer to return the thousands of captured Russian troops increasingly cut-off and desperate. Whither those users now, playing the Both Sides angle, that Ukraine should surrender now, for the sake of peace. Peace, Pete! Peace! Snort.

As an aside, this counter-offensive has been instructive too at just how terrible the Russian intelligence network appears to be within Ukraine. Props of course for Ukraine keeping it all under wraps, but it speaks to a deep poverty of military nous and intelligence that the Russian Brain-Trust fell for the Kherson feint so completely - and over-committed troops in an ostensibly desperate attempt to prevent loss of territory. In doing so they now risk losing everything gained, bar Crimea. And even that might slowly find itself on the cards. Why not? The Russian Army is a paper tiger. The only limit might be the Ukrainian people's appetite for prolonged conflict to regain Crimea.

Much is spoken about the blackhats of Russian Hackers, or their disinformation prowess that informed Western elections of recent years. Clearly, that branch has no presence in the Military. The invasion might be a shambles - but perhaps too are their Cyber Divisions to have not found any forewarning of this offensive.

beggars_bush

I think people are overstating this Ukraine advance and Russian collapse. Lets see how it pans out over the next few weeks

timmyntc

Reports of Ukrainians having a force of up to 50k men involved in the Kharkiv direction, compared to Russian garrison there of <5k. Quantity obviously has its own quality so the Ukrainians can just storm the front with overwhelming manpower despite the losses incurred.

Russia obviously has its issues with military recruitment and wont mobilize fully for war, so it looks like they are being much more conservative with their limited number. Withdrawing to the banks of the Oskol to defend from there, and barely contesting most of those towns and villages in Kharkiv shows just how much they need to keep what little numbers of troops they have.

Also explains why their offensive tactic thus far has been weeks of endless shelling of Ukrainian fortifications before so much as attempting an advance - they need to go for the lowest risk advance for their own troops or they'll end up depleting their entire army very fast.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606335#Comment_119606335

Reports of Ukraine clearing minefields in the South on front in Zaporozhzhia oblast, so if they have a successful offensive there they could get to the coast, and split Russian forces in 2 between Kherson and Donbass. After that they could sit back and just go for logistics, the kerch bridge perhaps.

Russia have also announced the 'crack squad of chechnyan special forces' are back from their holiday and returning to the front. Coincident timing I'm sure.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606335#Comment_119606335

Wars ebb and flow of course: but like many things, morale and momentum are precious & invaluable. Here we have a high-technology, highly motivated Ukrainian army proving it can win confrontations and retake its land; versus a low-morale, logistically and technology challenged Russian army that crumbled upon the first proper aggressive action taken by the enemy.

100% there will be a response from Russia, it's coming. But suddenly, there's the smallest Question Mark hanging over the heads of Russian command about the validity in being there in the first place. The dogs on the street know the whole peace-keeping angle, protecting Russian speakers, is a facade - so what now? Does Russia let Ukraine become a meat-grinder, throwing bodies and inferior tech. at a problem that may not resolve itself?

It seems all Russia has right now are indiscriminate artillery strikes, and the hope the West caves come winter and the gas bills rise. It doesn't currently read like a particularly brilliant position; if Russia aren't careful it could be a repeat of the Ruso-Japanese War - or rather the aftermath thereof.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606365#Comment_119606365

Nothing I have seen suggests that the Ukrainians "just stormed the front with overwhelming manpower". The initial breach of the Russian defences seems to have been relatively small (at Balakliya and just north), not a major assault over a wide area designed to force the Russians to spread defences too thin.

There were a lot more than 5k Russian troops in the area, there have been suggestions of 5k killed and more captured. The Russians have lost so much in the first 6 months of the war that they can't maintain adequate defences along such a big front. They have a front line with little behind it, so once the front is breached there is nothing to stop further advances. They can't even mount a scrambled defence as the Ukrainians are moving forward faster than the Russians can retreat to a new position.

fash

At this point Russia has massive problems:

1. Ukraine is quite likely to gain the entire of northern Luhansk - they have the momentum and Russia lacks the equipment and manpower:

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1569056211676299269?s=20&t=TEHqJChZhCeEf1CY5_rWqQ

2. Russia doesn't have the manpower to protect all the places Ukraine can potentially attack, and has to worry about a strike south towards the Azov sea and Melitpol. There is also the issue that Russia has not reconfigured its plans based on its losses:

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1569174553179607042?s=20&t=ZQVWg-d1yYpH03PfDd-4HA

In addition, its (best) forces in Kherson are unable to retreat and are running low on ammunition and equipment. They cannot survive the winter.

Another problem: the forces that "cut and ran" - aside from the fact they have few weapons - are effectively unusable. Other troops cannot rely on them and they will spread bad morale if they are distributed amongst the existing Russian military population.

https://twitter.com/EliotACohen/status/1568928846006607873?s=20&t=RQ54YUey4WBKG012AUcAmA

In addition, mobilisation of the Russian population - aside from the fact it wouldn't be popular & would take a minimum of 6 months to even start (if the trainers were still alive and not killed in Ukraine) wouldn't address the fact that Russia lacks air superiority, sufficient armour, equipment, communications, intelligence etc. etc.

All in all, this is even worse for Russia than it currently looks like.

bear1

A massive blow to Putin.

The fact that more and more people in the Kremlin and in his own city are asking he be removed from his position must have him somewhat worried.

He spent the weekend opening up a Ferris wheel FFS. Beyond delusional.

Hats off to the Ukrainians, well played by them.

My question though, would they be as lucky if they tried to get to Donetsk?

amandstu

Talk that Russia is buying ammo from NK.Is there not an embargo on arms sales from NK

Can those deliveries be legally targeted in transit?