Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119813876#Comment_119813876

Untrained soldiers and conscripts have much higher casualty rates than trained motivated troops. The scrapings of prisons, retired cohorts and unenthusiastic ethnic regions will have an even shorter lifespan. Undernourished, ill-clad and ill-equipped soldiers will present a poor opposition. In addition western supplied weapons have shown themselves to be superior to their Russian equivalents, not to mention deficiencies caused by poor maintenance, ignorance and corruption.

pixelburp

Back to events as they happen. This morning Russia launched cruise missiles at electric dams and other infrastructure. The Russians are consciously, and constantly, attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure; on what planet should Ukraine sit with Russia while the latter is deliberately trying to kill ordinary people? Presumably this is all the brainchild of the new commander, bringing some of his Syrian expertise to the fore.

Fact is, you're the Ukrainian president. Do you beg for a sit down with a country actively trying to freeze your people to death as the winter encroaches?

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814167#Comment_119814167

Almost certainly never going to happen. Maybe and it's a big maybe, if there were an internal coup in Russia and "new management" came in it could have a few sacrificial lambs to point to the failings of the old regime, but international tribunals? Pie in the sky stuff.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814195#Comment_119814195

Both Ukrainian and Russian figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt. It's a near guarantee they're both wrong. Fog of war, optimism/pessimism, spin.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119813801#Comment_119813801

What they should have done IMHO was neither. Their biggest mistake was trying to take the capital(and country) and failing miserably and obviously. And that was before the western weapons shipments ramped up.

On the other hand if they'd done "An America"(or indeed Crimea Part II), go to the UN first and fire up the oul "reasons" on the back of the Donbas civil war, then invade and take Donbas/"independent republics", but not make a silly attempt for the whole country. I strongly suspect that they'd have been much more successful and more, would have come under much less of a backlash with fewer sanctions etc. Secondly how they reacted to sanctions. EG the seizing of their Boeing/Airbus fleets was incredibly stupid. That hurt The Money and that's never clever. Government backed sanctions are one thing, The Money decides to sanction you, that's much much worse.

That single move alone cut them off from international aviation(even their BFFs China and India closed their airspace to the Russian Boeing/Airbus fleet) and severly impacted their future access to leasing, investment, insurance. Even if sanctions were magically removed tomorrow international finance would be reticent to touch them. At best they'd get interest at firesale prices. And what did they gain? Nothing. A fleet of uninsurable slowly decaying and now worthless aircraft.

What has surprised me about this war is how unbeliveably clumsy, even stupid and kneejerk Russian command is. Zero subtlety, little foresight and a heap of hubris.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119812001#Comment_119812001

Apologies for the delay, I was on a bit of a bender yesterday. The vodka gives me a terrible headache! 😉

Ok I am not sure I have much of a posting history on this subject but I'll go with it.

First and foremost I am a realist and a pragmatist. I don't think the Ukraine will get Crimea back no matter they they do. I might be utterly wrong but that's my thinking.

Now let's say Ukraine and Russian enter into peace negotiations while Ukraine are on the front foot - I think that would be a huge blow to Putin and a turning point in many ways - little Ukraine forcing 'mighty' Russia to the negotiation table. His credibility would be damaged even further than it is. It would make it increasingly difficult to continue the war and he might even get replaced as a result. I imagine there are other senior/rich Russians sharpening their knives. Don't get me wrong, I expect the initial negotiations to utterly fail. Russia will come in with stupid demands and Ukraine will demand an immediate and full withdrawal and that will be that. Ukraine can walk out and promise more pain with superior NATO weapons arriving daily. Putin will look very weak and have no easy out. I expect subsequent rounds of negotiations to fail too and there will be loads of shite-hawking from both sides and lots of cowardly missile attacks from Russia to try and force the issue. The utility attacks are particularly nasty and cruel and will cause millions more to be displaced over the winter months. But somehow somewhere there has to be some kind of agreement that is eventually mutually accepted. (Perhaps Gatling could mediate and get loads of thanks) The ideal endgame is that Putin is removed and replaced by a sensible leader but I am sure there are other Putins waiting in the wings to make Russia great again. The Russians must be most stubborn pricks to deal with - who knows what they are thinking half the time. As I said before, a red line for Ukraine should be to be able to join NATO and EU to safeguard their future. I think there is a good chance that Ukraine get back to pre-2022 borders but the timing of the negotiations would be crucial for that to happen. Many are convinced the Ukrainian army can drive Russia completely out over the coming months and maybe they are right, good luck to them.

We could be back here when the clocks go forward in Spring wondering will it ever end after a tough/savage winter.

And for other readers, please don't analyse the post for 'items' to attack, try and understand the gist! I even put quotes around mighty so as not to cause outrage 🤣

Yours etc, Cluedo - non-Irish, peacenik, putin-bot, russkie, orc-lover...

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119813876#Comment_119813876

Russian causalities are widely believed to be higher, some estimates put them at significantly higher.

If we look at just the material losses, the Russians are losing approx. four pieces of equipment for each that Ukraine has lost (plus Ukraine is reconstituting many of the captured vehicles), it should give you some idea.

If, for example, we take Oryx's visually confirmed figures to compare:

Russia - 7552, of which: destroyed: 4625, damaged: 172, abandoned: 297, captured: 2458

Ukraine - 2131, of which: destroyed: 1224, damaged: 74, abandoned: 67, captured: 766

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

A Russian leak of logistical losses for one of the months showed that Oryx's figures for that month were off by only around 10% off the Russian leaked total

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119812688#Comment_119812688

Blah Blah Blah. Simplistic nonsense and macho anger.

I am looking for attention?? 🤣 The absolute state of you and your childlike thanks crew!

Point out the line where I said surrender. Go on, thrill me with your acumen. I said best outcome, in my humble opinion, is complete expulsion of Russia, except from Crimea. But go on, find where I said Ukraine should surrender (whatever that even means) and stop spoofing.,

gameoverdude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816457#Comment_119816457

Crimea is part of the Ukraine? No?

So surrender it?

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816473#Comment_119816473

They seemed to surrender it in 2014. If they can get it back now, more power to them - I don't see it happening.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816457#Comment_119816457

Why should Crimea remain with Russia?

gameoverdude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816476#Comment_119816476

Except from Crimea?

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816483#Comment_119816483

It shouldn't. Crimea is part of the Ukraine. The 2014 annexation and vote were bogus. Ukraine hardly fired a shot at the time or since to reclaim it. If you think that the negotiations that end this war will return it to Ukraine, then you are a better negotiator than I give you credit. More power to them if they get it back.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816500#Comment_119816500

It goes a hell of a lot deeper than that.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816526#Comment_119816526

In saying that when Kherson falls and is liberated Crimea won't be long for taking,the Ukrainans are repeatedly humiliating the russians occupying their territory, even today breaking though the Russian naval blockade off the Ukrainan coast

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816526#Comment_119816526

It always always does. I hate war personally. The little people always suffer the most. There are no winners.

Here is what I think, reposted. If you think there will be a better outcome then state your case. Nobody knows at this point, too many variables.

---------------------------------------------

Apologies for the delay, I was on a bit of a bender yesterday. The vodka gives me a terrible headache! 😉

Ok I am not sure I have much of a posting history on this subject but I'll go with it.

First and foremost I am a realist and a pragmatist. I don't think the Ukraine will get Crimea back no matter they they do. I might be utterly wrong but that's my thinking.

Now let's say Ukraine and Russian enter into peace negotiations while Ukraine are on the front foot - I think that would be a huge blow to Putin and a turning point in many ways - little Ukraine forcing 'mighty' Russia to the negotiation table. His credibility would be damaged even further than it is. It would make it increasingly difficult to continue the war and he might even get replaced as a result. I imagine there are other senior/rich Russians sharpening their knives. Don't get me wrong, I expect the initial negotiations to utterly fail. Russia will come in with stupid demands and Ukraine will demand an immediate and full withdrawal and that will be that. Ukraine can walk out and promise more pain with superior NATO weapons arriving daily. Putin will look very weak and have no easy out. I expect subsequent rounds of negotiations to fail too and there will be loads of shite-hawking from both sides and lots of cowardly missile attacks from Russia to try and force the issue. The utility attacks are particularly nasty and cruel and will cause millions more to be displaced over the winter months. But somehow somewhere there has to be some kind of agreement that is eventually mutually accepted. (Perhaps Gatling could mediate and get loads of thanks) The ideal endgame is that Putin is removed and replaced by a sensible leader but I am sure there are other Putins waiting in the wings to make Russia great again. The Russians must be most stubborn pricks to deal with - who knows what they are thinking half the time. As I said before, a red line for Ukraine should be to be able to join NATO and EU to safeguard their future. I think there is a good chance that Ukraine get back to pre-2022 borders but the timing of the negotiations would be crucial for that to happen. Many are convinced the Ukrainian army can drive Russia completely out over the coming months and maybe they are right, good luck to them.

We could be back here when the clocks go forward in Spring wondering will it ever end after a tough/savage winter.

And for other readers, please don't analyse the post for 'items' to attack, try and understand the gist! I even put quotes around mighty so as not to cause outrage 🤣

Yours etc, Cluedo - non-Irish, peacenik, putin-bot, russkie, orc-lover...

Fighting Tao

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816500#Comment_119816500

Nothing like driving the invading army out for resolving the Crimea issue.

jmreire

The fall of Kherson will be the main turning point, whenever it happens, but happen it will because it has to happen for Ukraine. That will trigger a domino effect on Russian defenses. After that happens, the negotiations will be pretty much one sided, Ukraine will talk, and Putin will listen, and obey. Unless of course, he decides to end it all, and take the world with him.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816544#Comment_119816544

I don't have, as of now, a potential outcome.

I cannot see Putin sitting down and being told by zelensky what will and won't happen.

Today for example, Turkey surprised me. I really didn't expect them to essentially give the finger to Putin but here we are and already reports are circulating that the Russians fired on a civilian tug boat and killed it's crew..

So for me, everyday seems to bring a new story and the Russians are getting worse and worse.

If Ukraine takes Kherson, I fully expect the Russians to blow the dam and throw every single missile it can at Ukraine and just to add, they've also got their puppets north of the Ukrainian border so there's still quite a bit to go before I see negotiations starting.

gameoverdude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816640#Comment_119816640

Only way this will end is if Putin is out.

Either through death or is overthrown. I'm not sure the next bunch will be better. A few years of chats and then back to square one.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816712#Comment_119816712

It's not that simple though. Putin is a stain but who takes over could be worse. A Putin shamed by Ukrainians could result in a violent swing towards ultranationalists out to restore wounded pride. The Communists still exist for one thing. Many talking heads in Russian media have spoken openly of nuclear weapons and declared war against the West. Including Putin's own Chechen lapdog in Ukraine right now.

growleaves

Okay so posters here really believe that Ukraine are soon going to push Russia back to 2014 borders?

I guess this at least explains why these posters consider peace negotiations totally out of the question.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816743#Comment_119816743

Putin may be stupid enough to want to go nuclear but he would have no support for it. I'm sure even China wouldn't entertain that (for their on selfish reasons of course) so it's a no-go really.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816789#Comment_119816789

If they retake Kherson between now and say the new year, Crimea will rapidly follow ,why do you think they won't go and take it

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816800#Comment_119816800

Putin won't, and some rumours question how many working nukes they have now, but the Next Guy may not be so cautious. Until 2022 I'd have thought of Putin as a shrewd operator who know how to play the geopolitical game. He almost had the EU eating out of his hand for Russia's gas then blew away all that with Ukraine. So anything is possible right now, Russia's a hot mess.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816789#Comment_119816789

Don't do that. Negotiations are out of the question right now because Russia continues to attack civilians and their infrastructure. Discussions can't be tabled until Russia stops launching missiles and drones at cities, otherwise Ukraine looks desperate and weak. Would be a different situation were the war solely restricted to the front-lines in the south and east ... but instead we're looking at the "Revenge Weapons" period with Putin.

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816816#Comment_119816816

I didn't say I think they won't go and take it.

I hadn't read anything negative or positive about re-taking Crimea and it hadn't occured to me. It clarifies for me where people are coming from.

The Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan so maybe the Russians will withdraw from all of the Ukraine.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816743#Comment_119816743

Yes, that cannot be ruled out of course, but what kind of Russia will Putin leave behind him? For sure, whoever takes over will only inherit a fraction of what Putin had back in 2014. It will be economically broken, financially strapped, with an angry home population, and for sure, this anger will not all be aimed at the west, a large % of it will be aimed at the Kremlin. The present population is not the same as the one Putin took over 20 years ago. And you will have an EU, US and lots of other Country's that Putin crossed who will go out of their respective ways to make life hard for Russia. Personally, I'd say that the new incoming management will have an uphill struggle to rebuild their military to the stage where it would pose the same level of threat that Putins 2nd best army in the world posed, and at a time when Europe, having been caught with the pants down once, will not be caught a 2nd time. Plus, you will have a Ukraine that by then will be in the EU, and quite possibly in NATO also. So basically, let them do their worst.

growleaves

@pixelburp 'Don't do that. Negotiations are out of the question right now because Russia continues to attack civilians and their infrastructure. Discussions can't be tabled until Russia stops launching missiles and drones at cities, otherwise Ukraine looks desperate and weak. Would be a different situation were the war solely restricted to the front-lines in the south and east ... but instead we're looking at the "Revenge Weapons" period with Putin.'

There would have to be a ceasefire first. I don't think Zelensky should beg for peace. But "total victory" is only good policy if its achieveable.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816844#Comment_119816844

Crimea is only a question for us armchair generals; Zelensky would have the info in front of him just how buttressed the region is in reality. I want Ukraine to regain all its territory but realise that it might be a literal bridge too far. Not least because I suspect once, if, the 4 regions are regained Biden and others will have quiet words about Making Do. Aside from the fact even Ukrainian sentiment might cool over driving onwards into Crimea. A degree of resignation could exist about its status.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816842#Comment_119816842

Perhaps. It's possibly the world's largest political Question Mark and an ultranationalist nightmare is probably as likely as a West-friendly centrist eager to have the sanctions removed. All are on the table cos who really knows what happens when Putin croaks.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816891#Comment_119816891

Why do you think taking Crimea is a step too far,this has been mentioned on the other thread in CA ,oh Biden won't allow this and Biden won't allow that , but at the same time the same people were saying it's ok for putin to nuke Ukraine for threatening Russian territory aka occupied territory of Ukraine.

I've had the strong belief for the last 8 + years of this when ukraine had the ability to do so they would take back all of their territory including Crimea,it would make zero sense allowing Russia to hold Crimea when it has naval bases and air bases ,and in theory giving Russia the ability to launch another invasion several years down the line to reclaim kharkiv, Kherson and elsewhere they decide they want a piece of .

Ukraine must be supported and backed all the way to the kirsch bridge,

Anything else is suggesting Ukraine shouldn't have a say

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816789#Comment_119816789

I think the key point is not that we believe it. After all, as many have pointed out, most people on this forum are just a bunch of people on the other side of the continent, who have no skin the game beyond a keen interest in the conflict. No, the key point is that the Ukrainian people believe it. At the end of the day, they're the ones whose country and people are being destroyed. They're the ones that are shouldering most of the hardships. They're the ones who would have to give up their territory forever. They're the ones who will have to live next to Russia forever. They're also the ones who will have to have the final say on any agreement reached by their politicians. They currently see any agreements where they have to cede their territory to Russia as out of the question.

If that's their stance and they continue to win back territory on the battle field then I see no reason not to doubt them.

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814971#Comment_119814971

Well, then they can stew in their juice in Russia, unable to put a foot outside the country for fear of arrest. No more shopping trips to Paris, no more properties in London, no more soaking up the sun in Monaco, no more skiing in Switzerland. Some of the lesser offenders might slip out of Russia, but they will eventually be apprehended. The practice by which war crimes and crimes against humanity can be tried in third countries will make sure none of them feel safe except in Russia.