Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

mikewest

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120039677#Comment_120039677

So, can you summarize this load of fertilizer for us that could be called hard of thinking. Are the Russians the good guys or the bad guys??? Just so we know like???

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120039705#Comment_120039705

jmreire seemed to be attempting to correlate birth rates in Russia with corruption. The stated correlation does not appear to exist looking at the numbers.

Russia is the 44th most corrupt country and the Ukraine the 58th most corrupt country out of 180.

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021

If you drew a line at a transparency score of 30 and said anything below was a bad guy then maybe that could help classify Russia as bad guys??

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120039637#Comment_120039637

And why do you think they can charge a premium for shipping Russian oil? Because a) there's a healthy big market of ships available or b) there's a lack of ships on the market and the ships who are willing to ship Russian oil are few and far between and can charge a premium?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5c_oN9HLII

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120039902#Comment_120039902

I suspect the ships willing to ship Russian oil are a subset of the whole. There may be extra complications too. However, bear in mind Russia produces around 10 million barrels of oil a day, so there are likely still a lot of shipping companies willing to work with them.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120039719#Comment_120039719

Quote "Syria, South Sudan and Somalia are ranked as the three most corrupt countries in the world yet have higher birth rates than top ranked Denmark.Your notes on Afghanistan appear to be misleading. Birth rate was 7.4 in 2001 and dropped to 4.8 by 2020 by the time the US left. The damage the US did there is hard to measure."

OK mcsean we go with your figures, so what's you explanation for the global fall in birthrates?

And as for " The damage the US did in Afghanistan is hard to measure" Could you explain further?

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120041882#Comment_120041882

On the first, I'd say it could be related to a western malaise. I'm constantly seeing stuff where people are saying they're choosing not to have kids as if it's a badge of honour and also, others wanting everything perfect before getting married/ trying for kids. Time runs out especially when someone is focused on university and then career.

Us invaded Afghanistan because Taliban didn't or couldn't say where bin Laden was located. The estimate is 176,000 dead but the evil of murdering civilians at wedding parties etc via drone bombing has likely created violent waves throughout the world. It must be greatly upsetting as an Afghan to read of such things, the final drone bombing of children before the USA left was appalling.

https://time.com/6099377/afghanistan-drone-strike-counterterrorism/

Brookings latest is on Afghanistan from before the Ukraine invasion by Russia.

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/02/23/what-is-the-current-state-of-afghanistans-economy/amp/

There's a good history of USA's appalling overseas record here.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_interventions_by_the_United_States

We're lucky because they like the Irish. We have the right ethnicity to avoid slaughter.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120042414#Comment_120042414

First the birth question, according to you its a "Fashionable western Malaise which has spread, like a badge of honor" Well I've lived in cultures where large family's are the norm, two wives etc. Yet they too are reducing the size of their Family's ( and as proved by your graph's) now why is that? They can't be all be followers of western fashion, for sure. Here in Ireland and in the west, the population is dropping because of one single thing, the cost. If you have family yourself, this will be self explanatory. So cost definitely has a bearing on birthrates, anywhere in the world. But not all places are poor in the same way. What's happening in Russia at present the state sponsored terrorism etc. how many other Country's are like that? Where women choose abortion over bringing a new life into the world. This is not normal.

Afghanistan, and for all your Brookings etc statistics. Well I lived there, so I'll tell you what my Afghanistan was like.. under the Taliban and then, the Americans. And guess what, which life do Afghans prefer? How come so many tried to leave with the Americans? What would happen if the US returned do you think? They would be met with Kalashnikovs etc or flowers and feasts.??? The Americans rebuilt Afghanistan's infrastructure, roads, bridges Hospitals, Mosques, and they repaired dams and restored deep wells to restore clean water, they started major agriculture projects, and modernized farming methods, They restored education for women and girls. Women went to universities for maybe the first time ever. Then you had the Famines, every year, thousands of men, women and children died, but many less died after the Americans arrived, and while they were there.

Now under the Taliban, none of the above was happening,,, no reconstruction, no women schools, hospitals barely functioned, if at all. They were then as they are now a brutal terrorizing force. You mention giving back money which belongs to Afghanistan, sure go right ahead, and see how quick it will vanish in Taliban hands. The best way to restore that cash so that Afghans get to benefit from it is by using to fund verifiable projects, with out Taliban interference, if that's possible. I wonder what the Brookings Institute have to say about Taliban atrocities' ?? Because trust me, there were many many. And now again, the worst form of Sharia Law is back, same as it had never left. The regional areas have been ordered by the Taliban leadership, to reinstate full range Sharia Punishments.

Yesterday evening I spoke with an old Afghan friend of mine, a Lawyer. And what he had to say was not encouraging, to say the least. The gist of it was, it's bad. bad and very bad, and getting worse. Now maybe you might just want to look back in history, and compare what the Americans did for Afghanistan, compared to what either the Russians or the Taliban did in the past, and are doing now. Welcome back, Americans, we miss and need you. But Russians we neither want or welcome. Or Taliban either.

Drone bombings, sure there were, and at wedding's etc. Completely indefensible,, but one comment from me, Afghanistan is a patchwork quilt of different clans and ethnic groupings, ( one of the reasons the Taliban walked in and took over) and it was far from unusual or even rare, that selected information would be given to the the US or Afghan authorities about "Terrorists" being in a certain location at a certain time. And so vendettas were settled. And as for the last attack on a line of vehicles trying to reach the airport, there were several attacks on US and Afghan forces around that time, at the airport. There was even one which was later credited to ISIS K. So sure, they were jumpy and trigger happy. and a mistake was made. i'm not condoning it, just pointing out the circumstances.

As for the oft portrayed Big Bad ol' US of A, they are not perfect, but I'll tell you or anyone who cares to listen, when or if the sh*t hits the fan in this world, I'll be packing my bags and heading for the US. Because bad and all as the US is painted, its still head and shoulders above any other country in the world, this side of heaven.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120043326#Comment_120043326

I suggest you reread what I said because you misrepresented it. As you may know, Russia's abortion numbers peaked in the 1960s and have reduced considerably in recent years.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Russia

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/abortion-statistics-for-england-and-wales-2021/abortion-statistics-england-and-wales-2021

There were 214,256 abortions for women resident in England and Wales, the highest number since the Abortion Act was introduced. In 2021, there were 624,828 live births.

Both have similar birth versus abortion ratios.

Interesting thoughts on Afghanistan. I don't share your view.

USA has the highest incarceration rate in the world. It's a shithole of inequality and I wouldn't be running away to it. It seems to be spiralling downwards in the 21st century. An aggressive global power. I lived in the States, it's great in many ways but also backward in many others.

Anyway, maybe you're right. Maybe cost is the reason for declining birth rates in eu. I think it's multifactorial.

I don't know why you're continuing this discussion. I used sources to show low birth rates were not unique to Russia as you implied and showed more corrupt countries had higher birth rates. I also cited figures on Afghanistan.

Just maybe check the accuracy of your statements first.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045482#Comment_120045482

If here in the affluent west, we have such high abortion figures ( and this in with very good birth control ?) how do you explain this? With very good pregnancy and baby support, all the way up to adulthood? Could cost still be a factor?

Russia, 2020:- 1436,510 Live Births, 554'000 Abortions. Having lived there, I can fully understand Families limiting themselves to one or max two children, or indeed, to not having any at all. And Cost is the primary reason, they do not have anything like the family supports we have here, and this is because Putin and his henchmen have drained the coffers dry. Ordinary Russians have a hard life.

Afghanistan: I lived there for 4 years, first under the Taliban, and then under the US. Chalk and cheese do not even remotely describe the diference.

America: Yes I know about the high incarceration rates, But I'll take my chanced with the law abiding part.

So to boil it down, in the west, high abortion figures, as a matter of choice. Russia, high abortion figures as a necessity.

mcsean2163

Duplicate

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120047256#Comment_120047256

You seemed to have lived in a lot of countries. Nevertheless, N of 1.

I suggest you collate your research properly and submit your findings to a suitable journal for publication. I keep finding errors, e.g. peak abortions in 1960s in Russia not 21st century, could communism have been an issue? Things got worse after communism collapsed as demonstrated by the high abortion rates according to you but those rates peaked in the 60s implying things have got better after communism collapsed. Putting all your research together might help resolve these inconsistencies.

Anyway, this is not the causes of abortion thread. Time to move on.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120047614#Comment_120047614

Yes mcsean, I have indeed lived in many Countrys, over many years and I'm happy with my own experiences and opinions thereof, without ever feeling the need to have to prove or justify them to anyone. But if you would like to research and submit anything yourself, feel free to go ahead.. And I'm still convinced that economics and financial status play a major part in abortion rates world wide. Anyway, off you go, if you are so inclined, and Good Luck to you !!!

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048246#Comment_120048246

I've little interest in doing such a study. Happy to do an early review if you wish to proceed. I'd suggest doing a regression analysis to show a valid correlation.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048461#Comment_120048461

Really? That's interesting, thanks. Care to show some of your recent reviews? ( PM if you like)

Nody

Going back to the war in Ukraine... Looks like a new mobilization is coming up in Russia beginning of next year including stopping any men from leaving the country (learning from their first mobilisation).

Russian and Ukrainian sources continued to discuss a likely and imminent second wave of mobilization. Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov inadvertently confirmed an upcoming second wave of mobilization during a December 29 press conference about mobilization in which he stated that Chechnya overfulfilled its mobilization requirements by 254% and therefore Chechen residents will not be mobilized in the second wave of mobilization.[40]  Chief of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Kyrylo Budanov stated in an interview with BBC that Russian authorities have made the decision to start another wave of mobilization on January 5, or potentially January 9, because they lack manpower.[41] Senior Kremlin officials have denied claims of a second wave of mobilization as recently as December 21.

But of course, this is Russia where having to do pesky things such as hide corruption takes time so...

Putin approved a decree on December 29 that exempts all Russian officials, including members of the military and law enforcement services, from the requirement to make income declarations public.[8] The decree extends to military officials, employees of Russian internal affairs organs, those serving in Rosgvardia and law enforcement positions, employees of the Russian penitentiary system and Investigative System, and individuals seconded to positions in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[9] The decree also notably lifts the ban on military officials receiving “charitable” gifts in connection with their participation in hostilities in Ukraine.[10] Russian independent newspaper The Insider noted that this decree could theoretically allow Russian officials involved in the war to seize the private property of Ukrainian residents of occupied areas because such property could be legally classed as “charitable gifts.”

How to make looting legal why you simply make sure you don't have to tell anyone about it or keep records...

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120049152#Comment_120049152

And especially as Putin is the state's biggest looter. But whether Putin or his Oligarch's admit it or not, wars cost money and sooner or later those exempt will have to cough up, and then you will see big changes in support for his war. The recent spate of sudden death's amongst the hierarchy is most likely related to a reduction in support for the war, either verbally of financially. At this stage, the drop in income from oil / gas sales has to be hurting.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120049369#Comment_120049369

They are already expected to fund it as is but the new laws coming in will tax non domestic Russians for having the audacity of not being in Russia to keep funding the war.

WishUWereHere

Hi

I only found this thread yesterday. I make no apology in saying I support Ukraine 100%. I have a friend in Bucha. They tell me yesterday putin bombed the crap out of Kiev. He’s sadistic in his mission to wipe out the power infrastructure leaving those poor people with no heat or water.

SLAVA UKRAYINI

btw, I enjoy travel programmes. Yesterday I watched Michael Portillo do a train Journey from Kyiv to Lviv to Odessa. Truly a stunning country. So tragic what’s unfolding before our eyes on Tv.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120049152#Comment_120049152

Interesting source.

The Insider is a Russia-focused, independent media outlet. We're fully committed to investigative journalism and to debunking fake news. We're proud of our growing recognition, having received, among many others, The Council of Europe's Innovation Award, The European Press Prize and the Free Media Award.

https://theins.ru/en

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Insider_%28website%29

The editorial office of the website is located in Riga, Latvia.

It uses .Ru domain instead of the Latvian .LV

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120050575#Comment_120050575

If you bothered to check you'd find the Russian government statement here which is listed in the qoute for easy reference as well. Your attempted conspiracy about the fact there's independent Russian written media based in Latvia posting for Russians in Russia when no newspapers can be independent in Russia (see Novaya Gazeta and who also happened to set up in, guess what, Latvia). Then again seeing your additions to this thread I should not be surprised you'd try to cherry pick something as not being right to muddy the waters for Russia's benefit.

realdanbreen

A very happy and prosperous new year to all the Ukrainian people who have come to Ireland in recent months.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120050666#Comment_120050666

On 15 July 2022, the publication was banned in Russia alongside Bellingcat. Following this restriction, any Russian citizen who aids Bellingcat or The Insider may face criminal prosecution;

Bellingcat seems to be a state aligned group masquerading as investigative journalism.

https://thegrayzone.com/tag/bellingcat/

I know little if the insider but it does not list it's funding on the website which is unusual.

The stories I heard at the start of the war were truly shocking, however as the war wore on uncomfortable facts emerged. The 14,000 dead prior to the war, the reverence for Bandera, the general corruption in Ukraine. As time wore on I began to see two corrupt countries at war, huge loss of life and an urgent need for ceasefire. It is one of the most evil things happening in the world. There's enough misinformation going around.

The source which is interesting

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-30

cites the insider as a Russian independent newspaper but given it's banned from Russia leads me to query it. I couldn't read the source as I don't know Russian.

Anyway, happy New year all and hopefully an end to this brutal and heinous war.

Strazdas

People saying President Zelensky gave a fantastic New Year's Eve speech to the nation on TV tonight.....almost Winston Churchill like.

WishUWereHere

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120051195#Comment_120051195

Here’s the speech:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/world/europe/zelensky-ukraine-war.html

Gatling

@mcsean2163 The stories I heard at the start of the war were truly shocking, however as the war wore on uncomfortable facts emerged.

" The 14,000 dead prior to the war"

And how exactly did the 14,000 die exactly,

Let me see it Started with demonstration against a corrupt Russian puppet who was installed in Kiev ,then came the little green men into Crimea, then Russian attack helicopters, tanks,Apcs , anti aircraft missles, manpads,the shooting down of flight MH17 over ukraine by Russian forces see that where 14,000 dead came from the invasion of Ukraine 9 years ago by Russia.

Your looking for gotchas moments oh lads look at what I found,oh I'm going to try to wiggle out of claims demanding peer reviews ,

Your bringing absolutely nothing new to the discussion just another wannabe glory to the mother land ,

Ukraine is corrupt, ukraine has neo Nazi's, history will prove Russia right,

Yadda yadda.

Ukraine and all Ukrainians are fighting for their lives and their sovereign right to exist, speak their own language and to decide their own fate

,they are winning, this war ,they were winning yesterday, they are winning today and they will be winning until every last invader has retreated to Russia or every last Russian soldier has been slaughtered in the fields of Ukraine ,

You can't change that and neither will any of your opinions change that,

Slava Ukraini

pixelburp

Only one nation is currently engaging in a concerted attempt to destroy civilian infrastructure, to freeze the population to death.

There's no higher moral position when one army is behaving completely like terrorists. Funny how some so neatly try to sidestep that.

In other news, The Grauniad ran an article outlining Moscow's failed attempt to take Kyiv. An attempt that fadó fadó some users here tried to claim was merely a feint, in a historical attempt to gaslight reality.

Russia’s initial plan was so poorly organised and communicated that it proved easy to frustrate. While many troops massing at the border had little of idea of the invasion strategy, others, particularly in more elite units, were told to seize Kyiv within as little as half a day. Soldiers were, in some cases, issued with parade dress so they could march down Khreshchatyk, Kyiv’s main street, in three days after the attack, in the mistaken belief they were conducting little more than a policing operation against a docile population.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/28/the-battle-for-kyiv-revisited-the-litany-of-mistakes-that-cost-russia-a-quick-win

jmreire

..

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120051632#Comment_120051632

https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/fora93&div=111&id=&page=

A peer reviewed article by Mearsheimer which calls the revolution a coup. There's clearly a legitimate difference of opinion.

You seem intent on retaining a fantasy world lord of the rings style view of the conflict. Plenty of despots received support, just because you have supporters of a similar mindset, does not mean you are correct.

Enough, it's a new year. I recommend everyone as much as possible to push for peace. Too many people dead.

pixelburp

Peace is easy.

Russia leaves the country it invaded and attempted to take over.

See? Then there'll be peace.

I wonder what's stopping it

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120052414#Comment_120052414

There will be peace when the Russians leave Ukraine territories in full including Crimea,or they all die which ever comes first,

Option A.

Option B.

But Ukraine Will Ultimately be Victorious Russia lost the war 11 months ago, days to take Kiev with a victory parade on day 4.

100,000 dead Russian soldiers, similar number of casualties, thousands of Russian tanks , IFVs and hundreds of aircraft lost ,ships sank,

meanwhile ukraine has more tanks,men, aircraft and weapons and increasing weely then when they started out 11 months ago,

The whole nation of Ukraine is what putin is fighting,he expected to be welcomed as hero instead he's being made a total fool of ,

Ukraine can't be broken and Ukraine won't be beaten

As for your paper why the west is at fault keep it , print it ,it might make better use as toilet paper