Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120152686#Comment_120152686

It continues to amaze me that German leadership can't see what everyone else does. They end up being dragged kicking and screaming into doing the right thing, do it quite well, but get zero local or international political credit for it because they are seen to have been dragged into it. Just baffling how stupid it is.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120153040#Comment_120153040

Externally stupid perhaps, but given in recent months German authorities quashed not one but two right-wing plots to overthrow the government, I also respect the continuing fear to being the belligerent force - even in more cut and dry cases like Ukraine. Takes its own kind of fortitude to stick to those principles (and the Germans did say they'd join an alliance, just wouldn't go it alone).

Germany's biggest ideological strength is its willingness to remember and build from its horrendous past - something still sorely lacking with ex colonial countries - but with that willingness can come a degree of myopia in its role as the liberal democracy it became. Fearful that the slow slide is only one bad decision away. I get it, even if as you say the rest of the world sees it as Germany having to be dragged into the decision.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120152883#Comment_120152883

That sounds a bit fanciful; and desperate for the Russians given that equipment wouldn't have any manuals or expertise to draw on. Indeed would there be ammunition to use as well?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120153143#Comment_120153143

More chance of the Americans turning all of that equipment to dust before they would let Russia get their hands on it

mcsean2163

Profoundly shocking review of arestovich interview.

https://youtu.be/wDfDnwM2M_k

Arestovich:. We say all Russian's are bad and there are no good Russian's but how the ethnic Russian's in Ukraine hear us? Or Russian speakers. What do they hear? You are the enemy.

Arestovich, the former top side to Zelensky says the thing moderates have been saying for nearly a year. He comes across reasonable and rational. No talk of orcs. I cannot believe we in the West have encouraged this crime against humanity.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120153325#Comment_120153325

Crime against humanity? Premise entirely rejected as without merit.

Big claims require big evidence.

You have provided none whatsoever while obviously having blinkers on to the attested crimes against humanity carried out by Russia.

Do you without reservation condemn both the act of Russias invasion and its conduct of the war as crimes against humanity?

Just so we can get a benchmark as to your standards for such an accussation.

mcsean2163

No

In addition to Russia, I also hold Ukraine and USA responsible as it seems so does former chief aide to Zelensky Arestovich.

The US got the conflict they wanted.

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/RB10000/RB10014/RAND_RB10014.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwirnPHboOH8AhUxmVwKHfPaDPYQFnoECA4QAQ&usg=AOvVaw20gfMooZk2oSGu4PL84GLT

I am not privy to enough information to attribute blame in exact proportions. The great tragedy was Boris Johnson's intervention that seemed to scupper peace last April. This war is an abomination. Rich people sending poor people to die.

At least we in Ireland are helping the Ukrainian refugees. After watching Arestovich speak, I was in genuine shock. The slaughter seems a game to some in Ukraine as well as Russia.

Gatling

It's now looking like Ukraine could have an Leopard tanks force of close to 200 backed up with American Bradley , Stryker, Marader, and swedish CV90s infantry fighting vehicles ,

Give it a few months and the Ukrainans will have the ability and equipment to really take the fight to the Russians,most of the footage coming from soledar and bakhmut showing the Russians are primarily fighting on foot with the off bmp and tanks thrown in ,

The momentum could well be flipped firmly flipped in favor of Ukraine in the coming months

saabsaab

At present the Russians are making incremental gains in a few areas. They look like encircling Bakhmut soon if this continues. Hope they get the tanks in operation soon as well as their higher capabilities they will be a huge morale boost.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120152883#Comment_120152883

Twice as embarrassing for the Americans, who left it behind😒

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120152595#Comment_120152595

They had been doing this job for some time, ferrying people and supplies to and from Soledar, basing each trip on available security reports, and it had worked up to this. Then there comes a day when a previous safe route goes bad. They died doing good work. RIP.

WishUWereHere

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120154034#Comment_120154034

Yea, May they rest In Peace.

Slava UKRAYINI

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120153655#Comment_120153655

Oh please, you know enough to spread blame on Ukraine for being invaded, but don't have enough information to attribute blame in exact proportions?

That's an intellectual and moral cop out and you know it. Perhaps therefore, you should delay until you've informed yourself, otherwise you are just casting aspersions without standing.

The war is an abomination and Russia willed it. Ukraine have every right to fight for their sovereignty and territorial integrity - which Russia recognised in formal treaties, and to decide their own future with regard to the EU and NATO. There would have been no true peace last April just a truce for Putin to re-arm and come back again as he did in Chechnya. Russia does not respect the treaties it signs and has demonstrated this time and again with Budapest agreement, Moldova, Chechnya, Georgia.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120154475#Comment_120154475

Worth noting that this user was banging on about "corruption" in Ukraine a couple of weeks ago, all as a means to cast aspersions on Ukraine's legitimacy as a victim in this invasion. But oh looky here: only yesterday we see Kyiv actively dealing with corruption, yet nothing from this user; instead pivotting to a new tactic - this time blather about prejudice against Russian Speakers. Mixed with the usual performative hand-wringing about this terrible war.

While to invoke talk of a "crime against humanity" ... on a battlefield that contained the depravity of Bucha, and the continuing assault on civilian targets & infrastructure by Russia? Yeeeeaaaaah. At the risk of skirting around the charter, this user cannot be taken seriously, and should be considered a Bad Faith Merchant and then some. Best ignored, which I see other contributors have indeed ignored the bait.

Podge_irl

Where did this absolute fiction of a potential peace deal in April come from? I've seen it mentioned multiple times.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120153143#Comment_120153143

I give Germany a lot of credit for how they have handled facing up to their history, and I understand why that engenders their current reluctance. Scholz, however, appears to be well behind the curve of even his own domestic constituency. Its squandering quite a lot of potential goodwill also, it just strikes me as bad politics.

Chips Lovell

Mod Note

If you're new here read the charter before posting. This is a fact-based discussion forum, where any contributions should be supported by evidence if required. If you're a fan of conspiracy theories, there is a forum for that.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120154746#Comment_120154746

It was never a tangible peace deal, it would have just been Budapest Mark #2 or a repeat of Russia's bad faith with Minsk.

Something along the lines of Russia retains Crimea and Donbas, Ukraine never in NATO and Ukraine back to relying on nebulous 'security guarantees'.

This article is a good summary about the realities and some of the myths that have grown up around it. To suggest there was a tangible peace deal somehow nixed by Boris Johnson is a gross misrepresentation, if not outright disinformation.

Britain’s prime minister hadn’t come to Kyiv to order a termination of the peace deal; this was advice at best, and as such, his scepticism about Russia’s trustworthiness wasn’t unique. There were strong concerns within Zelensky’s closest entourage that the Kremlin wouldn’t stick to an agreement for any longer than it suited its interests. The risks of signing the Istanbul agreement were high for Ukraine: key provisions, to do with the status of Donbas and Crimea, couldn’t be agreed until a later meeting between the presidents of the two states. Zelensky and his negotiators’ most important worry about the Istanbul agreement was, Romaniuk said, that “Ukrainian society might not accept such a deal”... With Ukrainian officials and commentators speaking out against the deal at the time, Zelensky must have understood that he had no mandate for territorial concessions to Russia.

https://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article7852

McGrath5

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120153983#Comment_120153983

I believe what was left behind was left in a state that made it unusable ie the kit was broken / destroyed by the Americans before they left Afghanistan.

pixelburp

So Germany confirmed it: Ukraine to receive 14 Leopard 2s from them, with (presumably) Finland, Poland et al to follow suit with their own supply. Logistics, ammunition, training etc. will also be included in the deal. The noise about America shipping Abrams hasn't gone away, and suspicion Biden may speak to exactly that today around 5pm.

Moscow of course hasn't been happy and spoken of provocation, without the language getting beyond the realm of petulance. A spokesperson merely sniped that "... these tanks burn like all the rest. They are just very expensive". From what little I know of this technology, that doesn't seem likely. Those Russian tank crews won't be happy.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120156128#Comment_120156128

Yes some but far from all of it,,,,what they could get at in Kabul mainly, and that was helicopters which they disabled, but thousands and thousands of rounds of ammunition and weapons, night vision googles ( very important item) multiple different kinds of transport,,,armoured vehicles, 4x4's desert-ready, fitted with machine guns, Helicopter Gunships... state of the art Communications systems etc. Its a very long list. literally billions of $USD worth of equipment. Of course what could be disabled over the internet, was done. When the US left Afghanistan after 20 years, they left behind a Country supposedly ready to stand on its own two feet, independently. With its own administration and civil service, including a full equipped army, equipped and trained to US standards. So yes, its a frightening thought where these weapons have or will end up. Of course, when it comes to maintenance, and these vehicles require a lot of it, give the harsh conditions they work in, that will take its toll. For sure, Pakistan, who supported the Taliban throughout the time the US was there, must now be having second thoughts about these weapons, and the large Pashtun population in Pakistan. Their actions may well turn and bite them in their ass's.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120156205#Comment_120156205

Poland has confirmed 14, USA is sending 31 Abrams while Norway (8) has confirmed they are sending but not how many yet. Spain (unknown) and Netherlands (unknown, would need to buy them from Germany as they are leased) and Portugal (4) are expected to chip in as well and Sweden has said they might send some in a future wave.

Germany and its European partners plan to “quickly” send two Leopard 2 tank battalions to Ukraine — suggesting about 80 vehicles — the government in Berlin announced Wednesday

Möller wrote that Ukrainian tank crews will undergo a six-week-training on the Leopards, in Germany which is supposed to start in early February. “This procedure should enable the Leopard 2 A6 to be taken over by Ukraine by the end of the first quarter of 2023.”

Above taken from here.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120157064#Comment_120157064

The Dutch tanks are in an interesting situation,

Currently they only have a lease for 18 tanks,so they would need to buy them from rheinmetall I believe and get permission to export before they could be sent to Ukraine

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120157064#Comment_120157064

That's some force to bring into this war; I'm guessing it'll be Spring before they'll be delivered and crewed? To be a fly on the wall of Ukrainian military planning, once they've got those tanks crewed and ready. Suddenly a raft of frontlines will look oh so very tempting. Every soft looking rump of the Russian line will have "drive at me" written all over them.

Pete_Cavan

I'm sure the Ukrainians are planning a major Spring offensive, once their crews are ready and the weather picks up. It could be their D-Day, although hopefully nothing like the level of casualties for them.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120157669#Comment_120157669

I'd like to think so, but the Russians are very dug in, the defenses down near e.g. Kherson are something else. No lack of spirit from the Ukrainians, but indeed very tough job ahead of them. Also the possibility of a renewed Russian assault soon, and the possibility of additional hundreds of thousands of Russians being called up.

murphaph

Scholz has clearly spent the last couple of weeks pushing Biden to commit Abrams tanks as well, so Germany isn't seen to be taking this step alone (notwithstanding the UK's announcement, the UK military is relatively speaking tiny and no match for Russia). The Germans needed the Americans (who are a match for and almost certainly a superior military force to the Russians) to be doing the same thing, even if it's largely symbolic. The Abrams M1 tank that the US itself owns will not be sent because they contain depleted uranium armour and the US has never allowed its export. Even NATO allies don't get that variant, so Ukraine definitely won't. This means the US tanks will have to be either manufactured or the US will have to ask other countries if they can wait for their orders and divert them to Ukraine instead, or buy tanks back from third countries for donation.

I see the Abrams being important in the medium and long term defence of Ukraine against the aggressors that almost surround it but on the battlefield this spring the Challengers and Leopards will play the bigger role. Hopefully the French will also send the Leclerc which is comparable to the British and German machines. All far superior to most of what the Russians have to field and all in Europe now. The latest Russian main battle tank is small in number and allegedly unreliable. It's still really a beta version. On the news last night one expert said a western main battle tank is worth three older Soviet designs.

I am obviously sad that battle tanks are needed at all in Europe in 2023 but we are where we are. Russia cannot be able to claim any sort of victory in this. That would be much more dangerous than the war itself. The next targets of an emboldened nationalist Russia might well be little bits of the Baltic states and then we escalate to WWIII immediately.

Podge_irl

notwithstanding the UK's announcement, the UK military is relatively speaking tiny and no match for Russia

Not sure that is a statement that can be made given the experiences of Russian military forces over the past year.

I'm also not sure there is any logic is "needing" US to commit as a force that could match Russia. It is quite clear at this stage that European forces alone would not only match but overwhelm Russian forces if it came to it.

murphaph

Ok let me be explicit. Germany wanted a nuclear power comparable to Russia to be "guilty" of the same crime (in Putin's eyes obviously) so that it wasn't Germany sticking its neck above the parapet in isolation (with the UK).

Russia are being taught a lesson on the ground and I agree that in a land war with the UK it would be up against it, but in an all out war between Russia and Germany/UK, Russia would win in minutes with its nuclear arsenal. It's not even clear if the UK is allowed to fire their US built nuclear weapons without US consent.

It was crucial to Scholz to have the US involved to get this through domestically. NATO article 5 is all well and good but the American isolationists could have argued that delivering tanks was an act of aggression and that article 5 didn't apply but now the US is "mitgefangen mitgehangen" as the Germans say, or in for a penny in for a pound though the literal translation captures the sense better: caught together, hanged together.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120159341#Comment_120159341

The US has 40 military bases in Germany.

If Germany was attacked by a Russian nuclear weapon, the US would respond.

The US are already in for a pound with the bases.

Plus they were already sending Bradley IFVs, which is capable of destroying most tanks, and is capable of performing offensive roles. There's no argument that stands up to a moment's scrutiny that delivering a Leopard was an act of aggression and not HIMARs and Bradleys.

Germany were just throwing out excuses to see if any would stick.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120159341#Comment_120159341

If Russia went nuclear then a)UK and France certainly have enough armament to cause serious devastation to Russia, and b)there is 0% chance the US is not involved in a (likely nuclear) response - whether they had sent some tanks or not.

It absolutely was not crucial for Scholz to have the US involved to get this through domestically. Domestic support for greater military aid has led the govt's response, not trailed it.