Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120840055#Comment_120840055

Well so far there doesn't seem to be enough of an economic downturn for the oligarchs to get together and put a bullet in him. Or maybe some were going to and started falling out windows in tragic accidents.

Once over the initial shock have probably managed to stabilize the economy a little by finding new trade outside the west. India re certainly helping prop them up in the economy and battlefield but at what cost in the long run who knows.

At this stage even winning the war leaves them way worse off.

odyssey06

UN report documents Russian atrocities against the civilian population in Ukraine, including sexual violence and abuse of children.

@grumpyperson I'm tagging you so you won't be able to post in a few days pretending you know nothing of Russian atrocities. Is this enough to bring condemnation without reservation from you of such Russian actions that actually calls Russia out for such conduct.

Last month, a UN Commission documented what it described as “patterns” of rape and sexual violence inflicted on Ukrainians throughout the war. “Victims range from four to over 80 years old,” it said, detailing a series of appalling accusations in October’s report.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/how-russian-soldiers-terrorise-ukraine-sexual-violence/

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120842845#Comment_120842845

And to make things worse this has been public knowledge for over 12 + months

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120840055#Comment_120840055

Yes, now and then there are glimpses that all is not going well for Russia as a state. Not so much direct information ( Putin has seen to that!!! ) but by inferring from "visible " indicators. According to the Russians, the economy is set to grow by 5% this year, and since May when it was announced that the entire 2023 budget had been spent, they have returned to budget surpluses' (according to Russian figures). All in the face of a Ruble which has dropped in value to 1 Ruble = 0.011 usd. No, all is not well in the Fatherland, the question is just how bad it really is. Fromm a personal contact, who tells me that the city he lives in has been flooded with Russian refugees ex Ukraine / Crimea, which has driven house/apartment prices sky high. And of course put pressure on services etc. Same as we are experiencing here. Sudden increase in Population, without corresponding increase in services etc. For sure ordinary Russians are feeling the brunt of Putin's war. Question is how much?

grumpyperson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120842845#Comment_120842845

I have called out both Russia and Ukraine for the atrocities commited against civilians. I even called out the US which has committed horrific acts around the globe especially in Cambodia when the Viet Cong hid there.

If there are other countries you'd like me to call out, I'm happy to do it too.

For anyone interested RFK gives context on the war from 24 minutes here https://open.spotify.com/episode/3Dsyl0Y5oAwZ35Zus98ntc?si=Q-vILPAsSsWUj5q3bzKqvw

E says WW2 was like every city on the east coast of USA was destroyed to Chicago for Russia. Russia kept saying no to NATO but nobody would listen.

You can say that Russia was evil to invade but you cannot deny that Russia has been attacked previously by Europe e.g. Napoleon & Nazis. At least RFK has some level of empathy and such empathy could end the war.

Stirring up endless hatred for Russia seems to perpetuate the war. It seems pretty certain Russia has committed terrible war crimes but if both sides refuse to sit down together and only focus on the war crimes and atrocities of the other side the cycle of hate perpetuates.

There are countless stories both factual (Good Friday agreement) and fictional (Romeo and Juliet) where the topics are discussed. Why not read a book on history such as the one I suggested or even a novel? It may be that something else in your life needs attention and is clouding your objectivity.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120845980#Comment_120845980

Quelle surprise. No actual condemnation of the vile Russian atrocities. Just whataboutery and entirely false attempts at both sides equivalence between the conduct of Russia and Ukraine. And insulting nonsense about Romeo and Juliet. Desperate desperate stuff. Anything to avoid shedding your pro-Russian partisan position.

RFK is a wing nut conspiracy theorist. No wonder you defend him.

Did you miss the bit where you actually condemned the specific Russian atrocities in the UN report ??? Otherwise it is reasonable to presume that your silence is your tacit support for such Russian conduct and Russian sexual abuse of children.

You aren't being asked to read a history book. All you seem to want to talk about is ancient history. Romeo and Juliet.

Anything so that you can maintain your "hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil" pro-Russian stance.

Because let's be clear, to draw a false moral equivalence between Russia and Ukraine in this conflict is to be pro-Russian.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120845980#Comment_120845980

It's not true that Russia kept saying no to NATO. In 1994 they said yes to NATO's partnership for peace. In 1997 they said yes to the NATO-Russia founding act. In 1999 they said yes to a joint peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. In 2002 they said yes to the NATO-Russia council. In 2007 they said yes to the invitation for the Russian President to address the NATO summit in Munich. In 2011 NATO and Russia said yes to holding joint naval and air force exercises. In 2012 Russia say yes to NATO airplanes transiting through Russia en route to Afghanistan.

Granted, there were a few nos through in there too, such as "No we will not abstain from invading Georgia" or "No, we don't agree with your policy on Lybia". But the disagreement only really started in 2014 when Russia said "Yes, we will take a bit of Ukraine for ourselves". Ever since then, Russia have said "Yes, we will rewrite history and get well meaning people who don't approve of NATO to believe that we have always been against NATO".

grumpyperson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120846015#Comment_120846015

I condemn atrocities committed by Russian's and especially vile atrocities committed by Russian's.

are you happy now?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847124#Comment_120847124

Again with the vague evasive language. You condemn atrocities committed by Russians is a meaningless comment, as it has no implication any have actually taken place.

Do you condemn the specific atrocities of sexual abuse documented by the UN as actual acts having been committed by Russian forces in Ukraine?

Stop dodging the questions.

breezy1985

Someone asked why this thread was "dead" and now I remember why.

Just becomes the CA thread all over again.

grumpyperson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847137#Comment_120847137

I wonder if you read the report yourself,

During this first phase of its investigations, the Commission has found that war crimes, violations of human rights and international humanitarian law have been committed in Ukraine since 24 February 2022. Russian armed forces are responsible for the vast majority of the violations identified. 

Ukrainian forces have also committed international humanitarian law violations in some cases, including two incidents that qualify as war crimes. 

The 8 acts documented under 'Sexual and gender-based violence' are particularly disturbing. I condemn those acts as I assume everyone would.

Moving on.

Given the extreme harm incurred by ethnic Ukrainian's and Russian's and the propensity of both corrupt sides to commit war crimes, it would be a good idea to have a ceasefire.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847594#Comment_120847594

You posted this yourself:

Russian armed forces are responsible for the vast majority of the violations identified. 

Vast majority.

The false equivalence you attempt is to draw about 'propensity' is refuted plainly by the report. Vast majority. Not ethnic anyone.

This is what the report said. You are misrepresenting it:

Russian armed forces are responsible for the vast majority of the violations identified. 

Even within the same post you cant keep your story straight as you keep up your see no evil hear no evil pro Russian position.

If you seek to deny the fact of Russian war crimes in future this post will be cited - you accept that the vast majority are committed by Russian armed forces.

Check mate.

I would further add - this is why a ceasefire that leaves Ukrainians subject to such abuse by Russian armed forces is no peace

grumpyperson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847666#Comment_120847666

I do not seek to deny war crimes community by Russian's. I have no idea what you think you won.

The report documents war crimes committed by Ukrainian's too. It says the majority investigated were assigned to Russia.

Prior to the war Ukrainian's committed heinous acted in the donbas and we're jailed for those acted although released during the war.

https://thegrayzone.com/2022/07/30/zelensky-militants-convicted-child-rape-torture-military/amp/

It seems very similar to Northern Ireland where both the IRA and UDF committed terrible crimes.

I think both sides should stop raping children etc. and stop the war. Russia should withdraw from Ukraine, perhaps the four oblasts Russia claimed could become a new country like Kosovo and UN peacekeepers used to stop the ceasefire violations and rapes.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847751#Comment_120847751

It says the majority investigated were assigned to Russia.

No, it says the vast majority were Russian. That is not a lightly used term.

It seems very similar to Northern Ireland where both the IRA and UDF committed terrible crimes.

No it isn't. Its similar to WW2 where the Allies committed multiple well documented war crimes, whereas the Nazis committed the bloody Holocaust.

perhaps the four oblasts Russia claimed could become a new country like Kosovo and UN peacekeepers used to stop the ceasefire violations and rapes.

You realise this includes large swathes of territory that Russia never once controlled, and it has lost even more of it since?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847751#Comment_120847751

No is not like that at all and the report you quoted disproves it. Too late for whataboutery and both sidesism when you literally posted this:

Russian armed forces are responsible for the vast majority of the violations identified. 

Russian. Armed forces. Responsible. Vast Majority. Violations. Identified.

grumpyperson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847779#Comment_120847779

Agree, I've no interest in whataboutery.

Whataboutism" is the distress-cry of an exposed hypocrite

Stop the war☮️☮️✌️

Auntie

I've been interested in WW2 since I was a kid and one of the things I learned early on is that in war, the first casualty is indeed the truth.

I recall a book on the Battle of Britain detailing actual vs. reported at the time aircraft losses. The British reported double the actual Luftwaffe losses and the Germans reported half the actual Luftwaffe losses.

So, I suppose everyone's opinion as to the course of this war depends alot on where they are getting their information. And both sides are probably lying. I mean, how else would anyone know what's going on 'cept for their info streams. Let's face it: we can hardly suppose the same people that brought us WMD are going to be reporting accurately this time round. Pravda ain't the only propaganda machine in town

Me? Having followed war and the mechanisms of same, I simply can't but see Small Ukraine being squashed by Big Russia. I'm in the equipment maintenance management game and there isn't a hope in hell that a hodge podge of Western equipment, with huge logistical distances and practical problems of sustaining that hodge podge force .. can stand up against an integrated Russian force who are fighting in their logistical back yard. It simply isn't possible - no matter what the will wants.

I was listening to an American tank commander talk about the practicalities of maintenance. Apparently 1 hour's operations requires 3 hours maintenance for tanks. And anything like an engine or gearbox change (with those element not lasting very long) means picking the tank up and shipping it to Poland where they can carry out that kind of maintenance.

Which means overcoming the Russian's attempts to prevent you getting it to Poland and the Russians attempts to prevent you getting it all the way back to the front. Good grief!

Auntie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812149#Comment_120812149

I'm not sure that a Ukrainian slow grind does anything else but grind Ukraine slowly. They haven't gotten anywhere with their "summer offensive" and seem to be hurling themselves against prepared defences. With the huge disparity in resources, that can't end well for Ukraine.

Anyway, the pro Russians seem to think Vilnius is a watershed and that the Russians will "take gloves off" so as to finish this thing off. We'll no doubt see - I don't think I've read a commentator (and I've read both sides) who's called it globally right thus far!

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847928#Comment_120847928

And yet Russia lost in Afghanistan.

This is a war of choice for Russia.

A war of necessity for Ukraine.

But oh look whataboutery about WMDs and bizarrely not a mention of Afghanistan despite your supposed deep knowledge of military history.

Obvious much?

Auntie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847594#Comment_120847594

Could you tell me by which means you suppose the Commission (who presumably didn't blush when a group of Western nations decided to declare their opponent, Putin, an "international" war criminal, subject to arrest where ever soil he set foot on) are a neutral agency? Like, they are headquartered in The Hague, for crying out loud!

It's a bit like falling for the notion that the "Citizens Assembly", a grouping formed by the Irish Government to spray a veneer of "it's the citizens will" over their plans, actually represented the will of the sheeple.

Auntie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847955#Comment_120847955

Lost after a fashion. Like the US lost in Iraq or Vietnam or indeed in Afghanistan. Both Russia and the US could have nuked their enemies but opted to withdraw rather go down that route.

You can argue the toss about wars of choice/necessity all you like - it really depends on what you include in the mix of considerations (one man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter).

Suffice to say that this is David vs Goliath (relative size-wise and logistical distance). And unless you are a true believer, David vs Goliath is a fairy story.

Auntie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847955#Comment_120847955

War of necessity? Obvious much?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848052#Comment_120848052

Yes a war of choice for Russia. At any time they can pack up and leave. Like they did in Afghanistan. And there is no serious dispute that the level of casualties and losses in men and material in Ukraine vastly exceeding the losses in a decade in Afghanistan.

Was that a fairy story? Nope. Even within the space of a single post you contradict yourself. That's what happens when your argument is without foundation.

On top of that, the level of assistance to Ukraine dwarfs that to Afghanistan. Ukraine entered the war with one of the largest armed forces in Europe. And Russia is placed under huge sanctions which combined with the war effort cripples its economy. Note that it is Russia. Not the USSR which had a far larger military base to draw upon.

Auntie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848098#Comment_120848098

Obviously everyone can cite sources for their opinion. And then argue themselves to death about the validity of their sources.

A few things are self evident however.

• Energy is a commodity that the world is hungry for. Russia has it in spades and can sell as much as it wants. The world is bigger (far bigger) than the West). The discount on Russian energy only need be enough to compete.
• Germany, the hub for European economic wellbeing has lost it's access to cheap energy. If you think that doesn't matter then you've your head in the sand
• Russia has far more resources than Ukraine in the key area of manpower. Even the West recognises the artillery advantage and how that saps manpower
• Russia has short logistic lines / Ukraine has, in comparison, a logistical nightmare to navigate.
• Russia has air, air defence, missile and artillery superiority. They are putting all those stolen washing machine computer chips to good use (rolleyes)
• You don't seem to be paying attention to the Russian economy, which hasn't been much affected at all by the war. Could you cite any mainstream Western propaganda source (BBC, The Gourdian, The Irish Times (haha) who say, at this juncture, that the Russian economy has been crippled?)

grumpyperson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848011#Comment_120848011

The ICC and UN are different entities.

One might expect that if two armies are equally matched the invading one would be more likely to commit war crimes or at least it would be more likely for the Ukraine administration to investigate such allegations than the likes of the Wagner group. I see no reason to doubt the UN but also note there seems to be little investigation on the donbass Lugansk sides.

Regarding the ICC, the US is not a member.

At least 6,000 Ukrainian children are thought to have been held in a vast system of camps and other facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea and within Russia itself, according to a report released last month by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health

That research was sponsored by the US government iirc. Russia could have left the orphans behind to die as the US might have done in somewhere like Vietnam, etc. but chose not to. The crime of genocide by relocation is not a US crime, they prefer droning children etc.

It just so happened that the ICC chose to issue an arrest warrant for that crime. I remember looking at the panel and thinking it wasn't really coming from a selection of people from neutral countries.

Hope that goes somewhere to answering your questions. I don't have any inside track, I'm just a person hoping they'll stop killing each other.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848302#Comment_120848302

So Russia has to face sanctions, loss of its major energy customers, so selling energy at great discount plus war spending - and the economy is grand and sustainable? Or racking up huge deficits? What is consumer spending doing?

Stripped of military spending... "last year’s recession was twice as bad as official figures suggest... Spending in shops has fallen 10%... showing that the real economy has suffered a dramatic contraction."

IMF suggests invasion spending is pushing up GDP but academics argue non-military economy is foundering...

Analysts like Mamonov and Itskhoki suggest this combination of falling oil revenues, a sliding rouble, restrictions on borrowing from foreign banks and a fearful Russian public creates a financial shortfall this year that will be difficult to replenish, supporting Deripaska’s prediction that by 2024, the funds to fight the war will already be spent.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/10/is-the-ukraine-war-boosting-or-damaging-the-russian-economy

According to you... Russia has advantage in resources, manpower, logistical lines. Plus superiority in air, missile, artillery.

Must be baffling to you why they havent won yet?

Is it Ukrainian naval superiority holding them back???

Its a military mystery... or maybe your claims are bogus.

Auntie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848395#Comment_120848395

I've already pointed out that there's a tiny issue of believing what you/I read.

We have to parse things/apply a bit of rational thinking. And what I find you get when you parse things is that nobody is really talking about sanctions as crippling Russia.. I tried pointing out a reality (Russia won't be shy of customers for its energy and doesn't have to sell at much below whatever their customers were previously paying (i.e. commodity rate apply - there is no need to firesale).

You'll cite your sources and I'll cite mine (licked off the web at first click). I look and I see that Russian consumer spending has decreased from 17,000 billion rouble in last quarter 22 to 16000 billion rouble in first quarter 23. Not disasterous but definite decline. Pity though (for your point of view) that the 16,000 in first quarter 23 is quite a tick up from the 12,000 billion rouble spend of first quarter 22 (or about when the war started)

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/consumer-spending

Point is: whose data do we believe. Or do we row back and look at basic principles - such as Davids don't beat Goliaths, except in "fairytales".

As for winning yet?

Well, there are again all sorts of ideas for that. But again I would point to the obvious: relative size of the combatants / logistical distance/ maintenance & training issues (not least the mishmash of unfamiliar equipment Ukr is faced with having to field) / the fact that that attack is far harder than defence and the spring>summer offensive has come to nought / air superiority / etc. etc.

These are issues that propaganda can't defy. And when we lay down our dreams and wishful thinking, these are the kinds of things (failing Rommel-esque turn) that can't be argued with.

Auntie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848369#Comment_120848369

I understand the ICC and the UN are different entities. I would have imagined, for instance, that had a vote been put to the UN re: hauling Putin up for war crimes then the vote would have gone nowhere on account of vetos. Which isn't to say anything other than objectivity is an illusion.

I don't understand the basis of "invading army more likely to commit war crimes". No argument is given. I would agree that Wagner appear to be a bunch of knaves. Then again, I've seen a lot of SS patches on the Ukr side.

I've an uncle who was a very high flying guy in NASA. He'd have a lot to do with the military/government machinations. I recall his saying that he looks at the News to find out what's NOT going on.

Suffice to say, I don't believe a word of what's said on MSM

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848532#Comment_120848532

You asked for evidence. You cited the Guardian as an accepted source.

Figures and quotes from a 2023 Guardian article were provided showing the impact of the war on the Russian economy.

Why ask for data if you are just going to ignore it with a "whose data do we believe" ?

When you even asked for Guardian as a source.

Clearly demonstrating it to be entirely bad faith line of argument.

Auntie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848567#Comment_120848567

I did not cite the Guardian as an acceptable source. Indeed, I would hope you wouldn't take the source I cited showing an uptick in Russia domestic spend as an acceptable source. I just Googled and that was the first positive-to-Russia thing that came up.

Point; you'll find a source for whatever you want to find

My point was that to find "Truth" you have to look toward common sense.

• Does David typically beat Goliath?
• Would Russia have trouble unloading fuel to a fuel hungry world?
• Does a country with long logistical lines beat a country with short logistical lines (in this I would ask you to think of Hitler and Napolean - as I think of them)
• Does a country with an integrated military have a distinct advantage over a country thrown equipment from all corners (remember the scrabble to get countries with Russian stocks of aircraft / artillery ammo / tanks to fess up because that could be easily deployed)

I'm really not sure where the substance of your position comes from...