Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123223935#Comment_123223935

Nothing is really being added by you being contrarian, but anyway, to humiliate your position further:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/russian-troops-rely-on-donkeys-to-move-ammunition-supplies-amid-equipment-shortages-101739386870074.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-polish-forest-was-russian-missile-media-2023-05-10/

Numerous sources reported for each, I'll await the apology.

BorneTobyWilde

Trump cutting ties with Europe, Executive Order to rename French Fries to American Fries coming soon

BorneTobyWilde

https://youtu.be/D3JzvP87Zu8?si=5ok_7WrXobpWdbPX&t=2322

Georgy Porgy

Putin's Boy

Will kiss his ass until he dies

When Zelensky came out to play

Georgy Porgy ran away

mulbot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224093#Comment_123224093

You'll be waiting - that's not a source ffs

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123223860#Comment_123223860

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123223935#Comment_123223935

As always you keep stating opinions and fail to back up anything with any information beyond "I say so". Now for a change how about you answer with some actual links to your views backing them up for a change?

Let's break it down why once again you are wrong and there are actual links with facts to back that up (unlike your constant claims without anything backing them up beyond "trust me bro" as you pivot to something else rather than respond):

Donkeys & lack of vehicles

Russian soldiers have been compensating for a shortage of military vehicles by using donkeys on the front lines in Ukraine.

“The fighters were given a donkey to transport the ammunition to the front. But what did you expect? Cars are in short supply these days!” Kirill Fedorov, a pro-war Russian blogger, wrote.

Donkeys are the newest mode of transportation some Russian military units have begun using on the front lines of eastern Ukraine, according to Moscow’s soldiers and pro-war bloggers.

The use of braying quadrupeds to deliver ammunition and supplies is “normal”, retired Russian Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev reportedly said.

“It’s better to have a donkey killed instead of the two men that deliver cargo in their vehicle,” he told the Gazeta.ru website on February 6.

Last year, Russia began using motorcycles, dirt bikes, electric scooters and civilian cars for frontal attacks on Ukrainian positions.

Observers say the downgrading reflects a growing trend that significantly hobbles Russia’s already slow advance on the war’s main theatre – the southeastern Donbas region.

Feel free to counter that one for starters since production

Now; let's talk about tank production that as you say have ramped up; well that's a truth with modification…

T90 production

These figures suggest an average annual T-90M production rate of about 40 prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to Military Balance+ data, Russia had around 67 T-90Ms in active service when it launched its assault.

Since the invasion, at least 13 batches of T-90Ms have been delivered. Reports from the Russian defence sector and think tanks suggest that company-sized batches of between 11–15 tanks are being delivered. Insofar as this reporting is accurate, the overall output of T-90Ms amounts to at least 231 built and modernised since April 2020; but it could be as high as 267 if all batches included 15 tanks.

This would suggest an increase in annual output from about 40 before February 2022 to a wartime output of 60–70 for 2023, with possibly even more to be produced over the course of 2024. Based on this pattern, the production rate from 2025 could be more than 90 annually.

We can all agree that Russia is losing more than 90 tanks annually; so where does the difference come? Well, it's tank reserves of course which is not new news.

The British International Institute for Strategic Studies [IISS] corroborated these challenges, suggesting that while Russia might sustain the current loss rates temporarily by tapping into Soviet-era stockpiles, such efforts have a clear limit. As of early 2024, IISS estimated Russia could continue this pace of losses until about 2026, depending heavily on refurbishing older vehicles from storage.

However, the quality and combat effectiveness of these older vehicles are questionable, as many have been stored under suboptimal conditions for decades, potentially compromising their reliability on the battlefield.

Satellite imagery and analysis from a social media source tracking Russian military depots provided further insight into the depletion of Russian reserves. By late December, assessments indicated that Russia had about 47 percent of its pre-war tank reserves, 52 percent of its IFVs, and 45 percent of its APCs remaining in storage.

These dwindling reserves and the escalating loss rates, nearly triple those from the initial years of the conflict, suggest a critical tipping point. The IISS’s early 2024 projection that Russia could maintain its armored vehicle losses through 2025 may no longer hold.

But once again; you can take a look yourself and do your own counting from the satellite images shown here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8CcuVCDEUw&t

So yes; Russia can be beaten by Ukraine by simply outlasting their equipment in the war and are not able to not only produce new tanks but are running out of their historical equipment to pull and send into war as well. Or do you think they are sending in T-62s etc. for the funzies instead of their modern equipment that you think they are producing at replacement rate? Worse for Russia however is that if they would go into a second war in some form they will no longer have their stockpiles of equipment to rely up on; at 90 tanks per annum we're talking decades to get their battalions restocked with an outdated tank that's clearly not fit for purpose. If we go for IFVs etc. their production once again are decade+ away for replenishment if we're being generous and the same goes across the board.

Now finally let's talk about the "nuclear" threat of Russia. To date since the war started Putin has given 15 different red lines that would bring nuclear retaliation. Remember how Russia would use nuke if their land was invaded? Or if Ukraine got western weapons? Or if they were used on Russian soil? How many nukes have flied so far? Oh yea, none. Why is that with even Russia itself invaded not a single nuke has flown? Simple; because they can't. Now; to be clear I'm not disputing Russia has nuclear weapons; I'm talking the real intercontinental stuff here that's suppose to hit London, Paris etc. You see the basis for a nuclear strike is the MAD discipline; if you nuke me I'm going to nuke you back so hard you'll glow for decades. The problem is Russia don't know what missiles actually work because a) they have not been maintained and b) corruption. Putin could order a nuclear attack but they don't know if it would launch sufficient missiles that actually deal enough damage where as the USA and Western Europe are very much up to speed on their end meaning retaliation would 100% be worse than their own strike. And anything short of outright nuclear strike on London etc. on a local level in Ukraine can be handled by conventional artillery instead. Hence, why no nukes? Because the cost for Russia to launch a single nuke, even a localized tactical one on their own soil, would cost them more than the benefit from it. And that's assuming they could actually find a nuke to launch, the people to launch it and it would actually be somewhat working as a nuke when it goes off (Russian maintenance being what it is…)

mulbot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224240#Comment_123224240

Well that's an interesting load of bullshit

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224252#Comment_123224252

Care to actually refute anything or is that to much to ask that you actually back up your claims with an actual source for a change instead of general statements and hand waiving?

mulbot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224255#Comment_123224255

I really am not bothered, the level of stupidity being displayed is bit worth my time

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224256#Comment_123224256

Thank you for confirming that you are yet another Putin kool aid drinker; you've managed to follow the exact standard process. Which is make general statements, fail to back up any of them and then throw the toys of of the tram and leave when challenged on it. As I said; seen it in this thread before and I'm sure we will see it again in the future. We saw it in the Brexit thread; I've seen it in the Chinese threads as well and of course in this thread so the pattern is not exactly new for the people using "alternative news sources".

mulbot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224260#Comment_123224260

I'll just leave a short reply, what you've written above is the same absolute nonsense that has been written or spoken about for 3 years now by "experts", you must remember the washing machine and shovels etc, yet the reality has proven,yes PROVEN, to be vastly different,. And this nonsense will continue to be spewed by gullible less educated people such as yourself, so no, I won't engage with that level of stupidity,.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224267#Comment_123224267

If it is proven, then show us the proof.

mulbot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224274#Comment_123224274

Show you proof that they don't use washing machines and shovels? Seriously?

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224301#Comment_123224301

That’s what you understood from my post? Really?

How about showing proof of that reality?

Seth Brundle

Mod: @mulbot won't be able to answer your questions

Count Dooku

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123223364#Comment_123223364

The main problem for the Ukrainian army is the shortage of soldiers.
So the best thing Europe can do is to send back as many Ukrainian men of conscription age as possible to Ukraine so that Zelensky can restore army units.

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224256#Comment_123224256

Feel free not to bother.

The most obvious proof that Russia is up sh!t creek is the undisputable fact that Russia has gained less than 8% of the territory of Ukraine in 3 years. It already held the Crimean Peninsula, which accounts for most of the territory of Ukraine it currently holds.

That's all the supposed second best military in the world has to show for 3 years of war against a country a fraction of its size and fighting with one hand tied behind its back (no permission to use western weapons to fire deep inside Russia). That's an absolutely pathetic showing and despite anything you write, you know it too.

Edit: Just saw the post that he or she is banned now. Thanks mods.

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224635#Comment_123224635

There is an argument to be made in that direction alright and Ukraine has asked for these men to be returned. How effective such men would be on the front line I don't know but that should be Ukraine's decision. I've been thinking about this on a personal level. If NATO went to war with Russia, what would I do? I could flee to Ireland, maybe even renounce my German citizenship to get out on a technicality. I'm not sure they'd be interested in a nearly 50 year old man anyway but I would fight if it meant younger men like my son were spared. I would hope that I would not flee and let other do the fighting.

Russia has a real problem when it comes to weapons. They need to export weapons to make money because they don't really export a lot of manufactured goods that aren't weapons. But they need those weapons in Ukraine now, so they can't export them to earn hard currency. They export very few services. They do export raw materials, mostly fossil fuels (at discount prices these days) but as the world reduces its reliance on fossil fuels and Russian weapons are shown to be less effective than advertised, Russia is at risk of its economy shrinking even further and fast. It's smaller than Italy's now. Europe also exports weapons but they form a much smaller part of European GDP so we can afford to not sell them to third parties for the forseeable future as we buy them ourselves and supply them to Ukraine. Europe can continue exporting "other stuff" to keep our economy ticking over. That's what will win the war. Our Economy is much bigger than Russia's. They can't nuke us, because even with our limited nuclear arsenal, we can still destroy every large Russian city too. Europe becoming independent of the US defence umbrella will be seen to have been a positive in a generation.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123223860#Comment_123223860

Leave Moscow and St. Petersburg and you will get to see the real Russia, in the republics, and they are completely different to each other…even in Moscow and St Petersburg now massive breakdowns in the infrastructure, rail and tram lines failing through lack of maintenance, ditto city heating systems, and during the Russian winter at that. All over Russia dams breaking, flooding occurring, roads disentegrating. But what else can you expect when Putin choose war over the economy, and he can only choose one? Yakutia, Russia's wealthiest region. Not that the locals see any benefits…still using buckets to slopout their toilets into a common hole in the ground. Thats Russia for you.

https://x.com/i/status/1797348744209268807

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123224635#Comment_123224635

That would be against nearly every treaty and law covering asylum seeking or emigration. These people ran away precisely because they do not want to fight and to round them up and sent them back to die would be literally criminal.

And even if EU would try to engage in something this idiotic, result will be most likely armed coup against government as these unwilling soldiers may decide that removing current ukraine government may be easier than fight russians.

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123226758#Comment_123226758

In fact in the current discussions between Ukraine and Germany, the Ukrainian government is prepared to give guarantees, that men who return home to work in critical industries will be spared the front line:

Rückkehrer aus Deutschland vom Militärdienst zurückgestellt
Angesichts des Bevölkerungsschwunds würden vor allem in der Rüstungsproduktion, im Energiesektor und beim Wiederaufbau Arbeitskräfte in der Ukraine benötigt, sagte Tschernyschow. Dies seien "kritische Branchen". Rückkehrer würden vom Militärdienst zurückgestellt, wenn Sie dort arbeiteten.
Wenn Sie also in einem Kraftwerk arbeiten, werden Sie nicht einberufen. Sie haben eine Garantie.

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ausland/personalmangel-deutschland-fluechtlinge-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html

At the moment a number of so-called "Unity hubs" are being opened here in Germany, to connect Ukrainians living here with potential employment in these critical sectors. Ukraine needs manpower in its wider economy, not just soldiers at the front. It needs workers to manufactire weapons in its rapidly growing defence sector.

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123227135#Comment_123227135

Well hey, why don't we return every migrant from country with military conflict? Are ukrainians any special compared to somali, drc or afghani refugees? They too fled from a war and we sure can find a side they can support.

Even talking about this create dangerous precedent not to mention that ukrainian refugees simply wont trust their own government guarantees. They are not worth the paper they are written on when they see military commissars pulling people going to work out of their cars or buses.

Count Dooku

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123226758#Comment_123226758

It is unfair to those who stayed and are fighting against Russia. Europe provides weapons but refuses to provide the men who will fight with those weapons because European businesses profit from these men being part of the economy.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123228200#Comment_123228200

Europe has provided shelter for people fleeing the war. Some people don't want to fight. It's a brutal war. Many posters in here have stated they wouldn't fight for Ireland if we were invaded by Russia.

The challenge is more on Ukraine's side, they have used carrot and stick approaches to get people back. Latest is that Ukrainian men abroad could lose passport status. Yes some of this stuff is controversial but the country is at war, the situation is difficult and unfortunately needs men at the front.

saabsaab

How many unemployed healthy men could be conscripted here? Ditto across the EU.

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123228558#Comment_123228558

Thankfully enough we do live in democracy and not some tyranny where armchair generals dream about conscripting unemployed people to be sent to a war they clearly do not want to be a part of.

By the way, they still do accept volunteers so maybe it is the time for some real help and go all in instead of trying to force people who clearly do not share your enthusiasm.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123228775#Comment_123228775

We do for now how long will that last? Democracies have conscription too and I would be willing.

Those who are in positions of gainful employment are already contributing to their countries efforts and shouldn't be the first to be 'volunteered' not that it should stop at that.

J Mysterio

Interesting Irish Times article here which runs with the appointment of a general to a new expanded role, which is significant and unprecedented, but buried further down is the fact that the current top ranking military person is due to become head of the European Union Military Committee (EUMC) – the highest military body within the union – later this year.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2025/03/03/army-general-to-become-new-head-of-defence-forces-under-expanded-role/

"It is a three-year, full-time role and is the first time that the committee will have an Irish chair.

"The EUMC is the forum for military consultation and co-operation between the EU member states in the field of conflict prevention and crisis management.

"It directs all military activities within the EU framework, in particular the planning and execution of military missions and operations under the Common Security and Defence Policy and the development of military capabilities."

CiboC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123226758#Comment_123226758

It's not actually illegal or against asylum law to send someone back.

Fleeing legitimate conscription in your native country is not considered a grounds for an asylum claim, not is a fear of being sent to war if one was to be conscripted.

Seth Brundle

Mod: I'm just going to add a reminder that this thread is not to be a discussion on immigration or who has or does not have the right to stay here.

rock22

With military support for Ukraine now ending it is really down to how Macron and Starmer can navigate some sort of peace deal with Russia. It is now clear that Ukraine are fighting a Russian and US alliance . Somehow, a dialogue will have to begin with Russia .

Any deal will have to involve security for Ukraine but it is unclear what Russia will demand in return. It would be foolish to now rely on US for any more support, they just cannot be trusted anymore. The problem is if Russia believe that the withdrawing of US military aid changes the military reality on the battle fields and that they can again will a great war. There is no doubt that for now, with US halting all military aid, the military situation will swing to favour Russia.