Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

lulublue22

Japan joins in on SWIFT sanctions and pledges 100m in aid to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1497915605026025474?s=21

Zelensky has also filed a lawsuit against Russia at the Hague.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1497920771259351043?s=21

Zelensky and his gov are playing a blinder - a personal favourite of mine ( one of many to be fair.) their minister for IT tweeted Elon Musk last night re access to starlink - Elon Musk said yep no problem.

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702442#Comment_118702442

Connecting the Kalliningrad Oblast to Belarus would definitely pass through NATO territory though? Unless there is a corridor of some sort (which i am unaware of)

If true, this is all sounding horrifyingly like Danzig at this point

beggars_bush

Putin has a huge trained army to put into action yet.

Lots more advanced weaponry too

He has barely put one army group into ukraine

I don't know how this is all going to turn out but I'm starting to feel like we're living through the start of a huge historic event. Not a "Ahhh yeah that was that year" when you see it on Reeling in the Years but one that everyone knows the year it started. The escalation in the last 7 days has been absolutely huge. This kind of trajectory for another week or two and we'll be on the precipice.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702241#Comment_118702241

I think the point you're missing is that I was responding to a post about neutrality.

peterofthebr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702454#Comment_118702454

correct that would be a move into nato. imo that won't happen UNLESS China moves on Tiawan consuming USA..with the currents in the tiawan straight China would only do this during certain times of the year.

Russia central bank said (relating to sanctions) ..we don't care...

sanctions are likely a bit more then just a bee sting to a wild bear...

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702120#Comment_118702120

I think you will find a hell of a lot of armies have neo-nazis in them. There was some very uncomfortable revelations in the UK and US armies not that long ago.

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702125#Comment_118702125

I remember a cyber-attack on EU oil facilities at the start of the month. Was there any update on whether that was Russian organised or not or is it still under investigation?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702519#Comment_118702519

I'm well aware. Another item for the post-conflict list.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702499#Comment_118702499

Even if it goes no further than Ukraine I think we are already looking at something 9/11 scale which led to 20 years of occupations further wars a massive refugee crisis and a complete change to the makeup of an entire region

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702499#Comment_118702499

Id be worried about this too....

I might buy the line that Putin wasnt necessarily expecting this (even though I find it surprising)......but thats potentially not a good thing (especially if he is unhinged)

He hasnt broken out about half of the troops that were massed on the border, No concentrated use of really heavy artillery/ as far as I can see...........He still has long range artillery capable of firing tactical nukes, rocket launchers for thermobaric weapons, no real use of fast jets firing air to ground missiles............at least not on the scale they are capable of....

If this isn't part of the plan for Putin (and if it is then that too would be scary) and he has miscalculated badly/has lost it somewhat then what comes next could very well be truly historic (in a terrible way) ..... a guy like that when he is cornered, who knows what happens next.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702475#Comment_118702475

And the $100 question is - is Putin in full control of his armed forces? Will they do anything he commands?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702261#Comment_118702261

I get that. And 90% agree. But we can do both.

Also, I will say it again, the people and organizations that control our narratives (to the best of their limited abilities and with varying degrees of success) want us to live in the moment, while they strategize decades in advance. They want us to be emotional, while they remain calm. They want us to have the memories of goldfish, while they scour massive archives for insight. They want us to abandon reason, while they apply all their critical faculties. That in itself is dangerous, on a personal individual level in terms of what one can get swept up in, and on the national level (for the same reason). The madness of crowds and mobs is real.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702510#Comment_118702510

Russian central bank has also sold 15% of their foreign currency reserves. Strange behavior for people who "don't care".

MFPM

So talks without preconditions are going to take place at the Belarus border....interesting development.

lulublue22

They care - they just can’t admit it. Putin has just reacted by putting his defensive weapons including nuclear on special duty alert. His invasion of Ukraine was announced as a special duty. His response is being sold by Russia in typical alternative reality as a response to unjust sanctions against Russia and against threats said by member states of NATO.

lulublue22

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702510#Comment_118702510

They can act tough all they like but these sanctions are different (and they know it). Watch what happens with Russian banks tomorrow.

As for the Chinese, there's not a hope that they're doing anything right now, apart from watching this all play out and learning from all the mistakes the Russians are making. They always move slowly and cautiously. They would never have taken such a risk as Putin did.

peterofthebr

The third empire, Russia as it should be by Mikhail Yuriev deputy speaker of the Dyma. Published 2005 in Russian. .. basically Russia nukes England and EU surrenders

https://twitter.com/PCOwen_a/status/1497931105386868736?t=9F_arWgmQwysDsNsyX_-ig&s=19

Brussels Sprout

You'd wonder how experienced the Russians were. Georgia was a long time ago now and Crimea was taken without a shot being fired. Some of them may have experience of fighting in the Donbas but that's a very different type of war to this:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497940431040098309

I read last night that a lot of conscripts, who were serving their mandatory army service, have ended up in Ukraine, without their families even being informed of it.

kksaints

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702695#Comment_118702695

Does seem that a lot of specialist Spetsnaz have suffered casualties also. That could be very dangerous to Putin if his elite troops get severely damaged.

peterofthebr

Russia has being sending in poorly trained solders. with a poor backing support. The problem is he's building up real heavy artillery towards Kiev. he will starve them out 1st cut supply chains and burn the sky etc... Ukraine are amazing warriors but I feel unless they surrender Russia could unless he'll on them

peterofthebr

us sent war ship through Tiawan straight to remind china.. yesterday

peterofthebr

it seems Russia is going to try and fight at night and try and hold positions during daytime

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702722#Comment_118702722

Who knows , but a siege could be double edged, if Russian forces are spread out around a large city and their supply lines are tenuous , then they're at serious risk themselves ..and the Ukrainians will keep picking off supply lines ..

How much food is in the city ? , power plants ,water works ,sewage works and obviously fuel and munitions all will be critical -

But if the Russians start to run out of fuel their retreat is fucked ... And they're going to be very aware of that too ..

Markcheese

https://youtu.be/3wnRxZu7_Qw

Don't know how completely true it is , but the Ukrainians have retaken kharkiv ,

Another report I saw predicted this this morning , the Russians are charging into the centre of towns , and getting stuck .. with little support - being compared to Finland and the winter war .. except with mud instead of snow and high rises instead of forests

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702884#Comment_118702884

Rasputitsa-like conditions are more of a problem with unpaved roads. I'd give Ukrainian resistance the lion's share of any success over General Mud. If reports are right the Russians have screwed this up pretty spectacularly.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702841#Comment_118702841

The West should start humanitarian flights into the city. Which of course should be accompanied by armed escorts.

lulublue22

Turkey have recognised the invasion as a war under the montreux convention.This would allow them to close the Bosphorus straits. Reports vary between they will and they have so not 100 % certain which it is. There was another issue there today with two Ukrainian merchant ships - whether this or International pressure or both combined was the cause Who knows but they’re moving further away from Russia with this.

https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1497946283918729220?s=21

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118703075#Comment_118703075

I think the Russians have the airports - so it'd need to be food drops ,from the back of a transport -cant see the Russians being too thrilled to allow this - especially if they're feeling a lack of supplies due ambushes

Let's hope it doesn't come to that ..