Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Larbre34

It's the only way out.

Some bodyguard is going to have to blow his head off.

liamtech

https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-invasion-eu-bans-russian-flights-and-media-funds-weapons-12553523

Eu to purchase and send weapons to the Ukraine

pixelburp

I'm not sure a violent coup would be an improvement for Russia. A nuclear civil war doesn't bare thinking about. I don't see any better way out for a post Putin Russia, but I'd prefer a peaceful nepotistic handover than yet another coup.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118703635#Comment_118703635

The thing is, there's no need to go on alert. It gains nothing in a world of submarine launched second strikes. Nuclear threats are an empty bluff, they are so unconscionable that they should be ignored in the decision making process.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

At some point, his own people are going to turn on him, I would have thought. They're not even in favour of the war and they are ones who will suffer most. Question then would be, how much would that achieve? They'd almost need to storm the Kremlin to get a result.

I doubt even he's unhinged enough to start a nuclear war, but if it was his last and only resort.

That said - as much dmaage as it wuold do, it would be a very short war.

Brussels Sprout

The threshold for the majority of Russians to consider a revolution would be enormously high. They still remember the one 100 years ago and also the chaos of the '90s. That being said it may come to a point if things keep spiraling where they hit that threshold.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118703840#Comment_118703840

True, but this will be for the long haul. Putin;s not going anywhere, which menas neither are the sanctions; and he's not going to lift a finger to help them out.

pixelburp

I'm reading that alongside sanctions against Belarus, the EU are now going to supply finance for arms to Ukraine; that's a huge moment, depending on how serious the commitment is. Obviously later than it ever should have taken mind you. Wonder now is that on top of Germany's commitment, or if the latter becomes part of this EU initiative.

Heraclius

What terms are Russia likely to offer if these talks go ahead? I assume it is a ruse to show the world that they "tried".

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118703870#Comment_118703870

From what I'm reading it's part of a general EU initiative, Sweden has announced less than an hour ago they are sending 5.000 anti tank shots (not specified which of the three different they got in store) along with body armor, military food rations etc. Sweden has, as with Germany, a previous rule of not sending weapons to fighting countries etc.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118703933#Comment_118703933

I've never once presumed Russian will attend the talks in anything resembling Good Faith. As you say it'll be a ruse, maybe trot out some insane demand like huge swathes of Ukraine to become Russia. Can't see Moscow having the maturity or self deprecation to just retreat and take their lumps.

kowloon

Does anyone know how well equipped the Ukrainians are with night vision gear? The Russians don't seem to be making a huge effort to take advantage of the night. If they're sending in poorly equipped forces they might either have older NV gear or too little. It would give the Ukrainians a huge advantage.

Headshot

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said: “Russia Today and Sputnik, as well as their subsidiaries, will no longer be able to spread their lies to justify Putin’s war and to sow division in our union. So we are developing tools to ban their toxic and harmful disinformation in Europe.”

Long overdue and good riddance

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118703977#Comment_118703977

So basically there is no hope.

Headshot

Reuters is quoting Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy saying he will use every opportunity to secure peace, ahead of talks planned between Russian and Ukrainian representatives close to the Belarus border.

“I do not really believe in the outcome of this meeting, but let them try so that later not a single citizen of Ukraine has any doubt that I, as President, tried to stop the war, when there was even a small, but still a chance,” Zelenskiy said.

What a war time president Zelenskiy is, Ukraine's should be very proud

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118703781#Comment_118703781

I doubt it would be a violent coup, somebody will blow Putins head off* with the full approval of the rest of his inner circle. If its a choice between killing him or him killing all of them, their families and everyone they know in a nuclear war, there will only be one winner.

*Yes I know that is violent but I suspect not what you meant.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118703977#Comment_118703977

Be interesting to see if there is a deal cut, whereby Ukraine would cede the smaller area that has been under rebel control, with a promise of immediate accession to NATO.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118703552#Comment_118703552

You would have to hope that Russian generals would give him the bullet at that stage to save their skins

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118704063#Comment_118704063

This is a definite possibility at this stage - it genuinely seems that he has bitten off more than he can chew. The choices he has now are limited.

He could hope/aim to try and extract a victory out of this (or claim that what ever happens is a victory). Probably try and extract concessions from the Ukraine. Try and get Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, or two a Russian Proxy state (Peoples republic of East Ukraine etc etc) Unlikely to work, IMHO. Ukraine wont surrender a blade of grass under these circumstances. Nor should they

OR- He could go all in and violently attack Kiev and Kharkov - This would result in victory (no point in denying it, this would succeed) - but the optics would be a disaster. There would be no way back for Russia. And this would amount to a full on War Crime. It would galvanize any remaining Ukrainian fence sitters, and he would have another Afghanistan on his hands. Diplomatically, i could see expulsions from all sane western states, full diplomatic isolation. More sanctions. Financial disaster for Russia. Especially if the rumors of Russians emptying ATM'S are true. Russia would become North Korea writ large.

The third possibility is that someone (as yet unknown to us), realizes that neither of the above scenarios is preferable - add to this the realization that what is at stake is no longer Russian Pride, or Honor. what is at stake is the Career/Life of Vladimir Putin. Conversations will be had, and decision reached. And putin will be in the Lubyanka basement shortly there after

All of this is my honest opinion/speculation btw - Earlier in the week Putin clearly wanted the Ukrainian military to come on side, kill Zelenskyy and Join Russia. We may see this scenario play out but back to front with Putin on the receiving end

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118704130#Comment_118704130

i doubt they would be offered so much - Russia will want them to guarantee they never join nato - which would be unacceptable -

If the above was offered - immediate Nato Accession. hum - i dont know - cant see it happening

Larbre34

Ukraine should cede nothing.

In the eyes of no nation on the face of this Earth, should Russia be allowed to benefit from this invasion.

The end of this matter should be the total and unconditional restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, including Crimea and the rebel Donbas areas. Then the determination and payment of unprecedented reparations by the Russian Federation to Ukraine. And finally the admission, forthwith of democratic Ukraine to the EU.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118704201#Comment_118704201

and/or to NATO

I;d be concerned abotu the reparations though, considering this isn't a war most Russians wanted.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118704130#Comment_118704130

Yes, presumably that's going to be the "reasonable" ask if it happens: given this whole tragedy started because of some waffle about protecting those supposed separatist regions (before turning into an apparent anti nazi crusade), you'd imagine someone will recall those regions might be useful tools again. But as another has said, why on earth would the Ukrainian cede an inch?

Does raise the awkward question of what the Ukrainian side can expect - or demand. GTFO and be glad we don't kill more of you probably won't work, and Russia has Sunk Cost this such that simply slinking out the back won't work. Hard to know what'll be read as fair - and we can't even hope for an honest broker cos the Kremlin has made enemies of everyone now

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118704201#Comment_118704201

I agree - certainly not under these conditions - having local referenda on cessation of separatists regions during peace time is one thing.

Having your capital and second city surrounded, is quite another - agree to nothing without a full russian withdrawl is what i expect from Kiev

Retr0gamer

They won't give up Crimea because of the navel base that will be off the table.

ShamNNspace

A thought came to my mind there, is our own Michael D ok? I would have imagined he would have been straight out of the blocks with a statement on the situation

Manach

To place the Russian nuclear alert in a historical context, Able Archer. This was the name of the 1983 NATO exercise which the Soviets believed that was a prelude to an attack on the USSR. So they planned a pre-emptive "limited" nuclear strike to decapitate it across Western Europe ( this is based on my reading from Lawrence Freedom who writes on Nuclear strategy) and this was one of the closest actions that resulted in a nuclear. My point is that if the Russians win in Ukraine, this would be a bad result but if they are pressed too far then it could be worse.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118703771#Comment_118703771

Well ****. That's one hell of a step.

I expect the core EU states to start bringing major pressure to bear around an EU defence force and expect Ireland to be under considerable diplomatic pressure

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118704282#Comment_118704282

I have actually been wondering on the legality of this TBH - it is rather astonishing -

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118702220#Comment_118702220

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118701981#Comment_118701981

The far right grow in a vacuum, the left and radical left, progressive politics have become achingly middle class and up, often contemptuous of their base, the working class, the wider electorate and each other.

It's might not be as personally satisfying but the wider left have a responsibility to be credible..