Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

I think the narrative that claims that Putin is "insane" or "mad" is not useful or helpful to the discussion. I don't claim to know his mind, but I doubt that he is literally insane. Putin had been testing the waters for expansion for years with Georgia and Crimea (with little or no consequence to him, thus emboldening him), his actions in Syria, reported cyber warfare from Russia, etc, so it's not as though this invasion is completely out of nowhere.

I mean, it's certainly reckless perhaps especially considering how haphazard the planning seems to have been, but not literally "insane".

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718340#Comment_118718340

I think people have their areas of competence and Putin is very good at his meaning people think he is good at everything. This open war and organising the military does not seem to be his.

I remember someone mentioned that Putin might not be happy with this strategy not because he wants peace but because he is more confident with poisonings and getting people pushed out of windows.

The Ukraine is also well equipped, well trained and has top of the range intelligence services at its command thanks to the international community making it a tough task to begin with. Maybe they were overconfident. Maybe they decided Ukraine voting for closer Western relations was losing too much control over "their" land.

Economics101

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2022/0302/1283859-poland-refugees/

Interesting report from the Przemysl crossing point between Ukraine and Poland. The Polish effort at catering for the huge refugee arrival looks truly impressive and very efficient. There also appears to be a really good effort from ordinary Polish citizens. Any quarrels between the EU and Poland over judicial matters looks very secondary for the time being.

And no, I'm not Polish or a PiS supporter!

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718425#Comment_118718425

I dont think its an exaggeration to say that the Invasion of Ukraine has strengthened both the European Union, and NATO. Even if Sweden and Finland dont join NATO, the fact that it is being discussed is serious. For god sake, Switzerland is even on side in terms of condemnation, and sanctions (for the most part) -

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-west-eu-nato-f810a6d94524b804730a9704ad4f0a87

From a few days ago, and Western Unity has grown stronger by the day

myfreespirit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718216#Comment_118718216

From the history of Nuremberg War Crimes Tribunal:

"The indictment lodged against them (German military and government officials) contained four counts: (1) crimes against peace (i.e., the planning, initiating, and waging of wars of aggression in violation of international treaties and agreements)."

...

I am no legal expert, but it seems plain that the Russian invasion of a sovereign independent state is analogous to the indictment above.

You claimed "Not a lot of evidence of actual war crimes"?

Topgear on Dave

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118717950#Comment_118717950

I have to laugh when I hear that court mentioned. It's for two bit African warlords not countries that consider themselves world power's.

Russia, US, UK China etc etc won't give a monkeys about it. They're quite proud of their ability to kick over small countries at will, and invest a lot in it.

They've been doing it for hundreds of years.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718476#Comment_118718476

Most people dont mean crimes against peace when they say war crimes - there are plenty of exceptions to when a state can "declare war" also that do not breach that, no doubt the Russians will try and twist definitions to fit into that criteria.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718516#Comment_118718516

Azov battalion publicly announced they were recruiting there (not their wisest move) so there were arguably military targets there. Again, not a war crime. Horrible as it is, civilians dying in war is not a defacto war crime - if they are deliberately targeted then it absolutely is.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718340#Comment_118718340

It's possible. I suppose it's potentially more accurate to say that while Putin is a crafty internal operator, his desire for power manifest through boilerplate authoritarianism, Ukraine is perhaps demonstrating his geopolitical & strategic nous is lesser than we might have anticipated. His smarts extending no further than an ability to manipulate those transparently stupider or more easily led than him (as you say, Trump and Johnson being the standouts). He seems to have wildly misjudged the Ukranian invasion to an almost baffling degree - unless we had simply fallen for a crude "scheming, inscrutable Russian" stereotype.

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718546#Comment_118718546

Azov battalion is a volunteer unit and are part of the national guard, not the military. "Technically, I suppose you could argue it's a military target" is what Israel says when it's bombing hospitals.

If you have to explain why a civilian target could be a military one on a technicality, then you've already proven it wasn't a legitimate target.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718666#Comment_118718666

Azov battalion are absolutely a military target - in what world would they not be?

Most of Ukraine's current fighting forces are made up of "volunteer" units, all of which are part of the greater National Guard. Azov, Tornado, Donbass battalion, Dnipro battalion. They are all active combatants, and if they are recruiting/training/arming people its still a valid target. It's a tragedy that civilians got killed in the strike (I presume they did anyways), but its not indiscriminately targeting civilians either.

Podge_irl

All armies ultimately end up committing war crimes in a war - though the scale will obviously differ. Nor, frankly, are the kind of things we are seeing likely to ever face justice except for strong political reasons.

However, Russia are indiscriminately bombing cities that they have surrounded after an invasion for no reason under then vanity of their leader. Whatever you want to call it, they are acting horrifically and deserve every ounce of condemnation they will get.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718783#Comment_118718783

That link is subscriber only.

eastie17

Realise this is a complete keyboard warrior question but I'll ask it anyway. I wonder why US forces dont carry out one sortie with drones or B-2 stealth bombers on that large convoy. They could do significant damage in one run which would give the Ukranians some breathing space and then just go "nah boss, wasnt us"

The other more extreme view would be to just be brazen and target destruction of most of the convoy. Its a great opportunity to do significant long term damage to Russian ground forces. Its mad in this day and age that they even set themselves up like that, they are either completely sure that Nato wont do it or incompetence.

Despite all of this mess and the support against him, if he takes Ukraine, which in theory would be holding Kiev, and some other key cities, removing the Government he will always have a level of insurgency against him and wont hold the whole country. But it allows him to regroup, resupply, bide his time and go again. Hes going to have to be dealt with at some stage, I dont understand why they just dont do it now. Plus the Western support will waiver over time, we're good when things are in the headlines "thoughts and prayers" and all that, change the facebook profile to the Ukrainian flag, but we get bored and give it a week or two and we'll move on to something else. And he knows that

Yeah I know, nukes, but you would hope mutually assured destruction might prevent that

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718996#Comment_118718996

To do so would cause a third world war. Mysterious unexplained bombings of convoys are hard to dismiss as "it wasn't me, I swear".

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718996#Comment_118718996

I guess the US doesn't want to rick mad Vlad lopping a few missiles on US cities, so indirectly helping the resistance is the more realistic option. And it's not just the US, Russia is unhappy with Turkey for supplying Drones to Ukraine.

Vlad's attack, like the US in Afghanistan relies on conventional weapons, whereas the resistance like in Afghanistan can be asymmetrical. The old powers can win every battle, but struggle to win wars.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718996#Comment_118718996

One word, satellites. Yes, the B-2 stealth bomber is hard to see from a radar perspective but the planes being prepared, armed, flying over etc. don't make them invisible from a satellite or spotting in person.

Detritus70

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718783#Comment_118718783

When China thinks what you did was not right it's bad. My geuss, Putin had anticipated complete isolation from the West. And I'm speculating that he thought to China it wouldn't matter, sure they don't care about human rights, genocide, invading other countries, so everything is fine and dandy with them as long as you don't go criticising their own human rights abuses. No worries there from Putin.

So, Iron Curtain to the West and happy trading to the East. No more stern lectures from western partners about "you can't do that!".

I further speculate that China criticising Russia is a major upset to Putin, because since when does the Chinese government care about him "reclaiming" what's his (in his mind)?

I say it isn't that the Chinese didn't suddenly become great, big softies, they just thought standing by Russia would hurt their business with the West and further higlight their own human rihgts problems.

So money talks and Putin walks.

Headshot

Just watching CNN and they are showing the Ukraine plant workers on the street outside the Nuclear Power plant stopping the Russians from advancing

Such heroism

Retr0gamer

Getting the feeling this could be Russia's Vietnam win or lose. Once the russian people start seeing through the propaganda it's going to be deeply unpopular, what with many russians having Ukrainian heritage and/or relatives. There has been some anti Ukrainian sentiment built up in Russia but a lot of them identify with them and would be horrified if and when the truth about it starts to filter through.

Quin_Dub

##Mod Note##

Just a reminder , please don't link dump.

By all means feel free to post links to content , but please add your own comments/opinions.

Links here are to be used to support a posters arguments , not just "take a look at this" posts.

Thank you.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118719308#Comment_118719308

That "once" part is doing a lot of heavy lifting though. There's no indication that public attitudes towards the invasion or Putin are at a critical mass that they might have vaulted beyond the institutional censoring and gatekeeping of truth.

AMKC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718996#Comment_118718996

What Ukraine need to take that convey out is a few mad ready to die for there county Ukranians. Maybe some Ukranians in Russia or Europe could hijack an airliner and use it as a missle. Yes I know it would be hard to do they would have to have an idea where the convey is first and then they need to hit it right. Besides it's probably to late now anyway maybe they would not get there on time. Alternatively they could hijack a few fighter jets from Poland or one of the under country's and just bomb the convey themselves. Security however would probably be very tight around any fighter jet.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118719915#Comment_118719915

Surely the convoy has mobile AA and maybe a fighter escort too.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118719915#Comment_118719915

Realistically it's probably more a case of taking out key bridges etc. to make it really difficult for them.

All the information thus far seems to indicate that the Russians are struggling badly in terms of supply lines etc.

I'd also be looking to find where they are stockpiling fuel and hit those locations.

On some levels less attacks on the actual Russian soldiers might be beneficial - There are reports of Russian troops sabotaging their own vehicles etc.

If they grind them to a halt by removing fuel and bridges those conscripts are going to be less and less interested in fighting.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118720015#Comment_118720015

I dunno about a fighter escort, the russian airforce seems to be MIA and nobody knows why

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-happened-russias-air-force-us-officials-experts-stumped-2022-03-01/

pjordan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118719614#Comment_118719614

As I said earlier , when you have a situation in the USA with a free press, where the majority of Republicians still idolise Trump over a year after his loss, what hope is there for the Russian people turning against Putin anytime soon?

Alkers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118718128#Comment_118718128

You were doing so well until the last paragraph. "Paltry and likely obsolete hardware" - stick to the points you know about.

pjordan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118720251#Comment_118720251

So do you think we should send on our vast stockpile of modern weaponry? We should probably send our Pilatus PC Turboprop airplanes too to attack the 40km Russian convoy by dropping bags of flour on them!

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118720026#Comment_118720026

Certainly slowing down the Russian advance is Key. There are many historical examples from both the east, and the western fronts during WW2. There is some satellite imagery available which shows that the Ukrainian forces have damaged Bridges and roadways. Which makes perfect sense.

<From the BBC NEWS LIVE COVERAGE - Early hours tuesday morning - i can find link if required>

But you can see even in this one picture damage in several places of this dual carriage way - most notably around the bridge, but even before, and after it. Obvious tactics involved here. My honest opinion: Russian convoy has moved very slowly (be it for political, military or logistic reasons) - Ukrainian forces can slow it down further, while also conducting short sharp attacks on the advancing force itself. Therefore these troops are being attacked before they have even engaged the city of Kiev.

Link below - hope mods are ok with it but referenced here, and genuine sources

https://www.airforcemag.com/pentagon-ukraine-resists-russian-momentum-slows-but-kyiv-siege-continues/

EDIT: Link for picture above - its buried deep toward end of article

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-40-mile-russian-military-convoy-nearing-kyiv-satellite-pictures-show-12554623

Alkers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118720293#Comment_118720293

Your entire comment referred specifically to any tank missiles actually.