Russian warship, go f**k yourself!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120328809#Comment_120328809

Whether they do or don't the West ought to be sending enough anti ship and anti air missiles to sink Taiwan under their weight. china has to get across 70-100 miles of sea first.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120328823#Comment_120328823

The problem, as we have seen from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, does the West have the ammunition? Most, if not all war gaming sees China taking Taiwan even with the backing of the US.

The Taiwanese will do a Ukraine and fight for every inch of land. The other thing is that China cannot do a sneak attack on mainland Taiwan. There is strangely a part of Taiwan not far off the coast of China. The taking of that will be the first sign.

There is a distinct possibility of a US air craft carriers being sunk... where the war goes from there is anybody's guess.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120328841#Comment_120328841

I agree with a large part of what you say, I've said it myself previously. The war in Ukraine ought demonstrate to the West the need to ramp up existing weapon and ammunition production and also (as I believe is already being done in some areas) build new production facilities.

Regarding war games, remember official predictions of Ukraines fall in days once russia would invade? Men make plans, God laughs.

I'd think one of the biggest reason Xi could be pissed with putrid is the invasion and ensuing quagmire has alarmed the world. So a successful Chinese attack is far less likely to succeed given heightened tensions. The islands off China have been bombarded in the past.

I do believe aircraft carriers are vulnerable. Throw enough missiles at something..... But, China has yet to demonstrate three things, that their missiles are good enough, that any vessels or aircraft are good enough, and the human element and their tactics are good enough. Also we see ever deepening defense ties between the West and Taiwan's neighbours like Japan and The Philippines.

The economic hurt is the elephant in the room.

A lot for China to ponder, what's the rush.

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120328822#Comment_120328822

When it was a sure thing that this was Russia blowing up their own pipeline it was deemed an act of aggression towards the west.

But it's ok if a pro Ukrainian group does it, go figure...

It wouldn't even take much of a stretch of the imagination to wonder was this pro Ukrainian group receiving support from Western countries, maybe there wasn't even any Ukrainians in it...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120328912#Comment_120328912

Hang on.

I was as happy if russia blew it up as I was if martians blew it up. The point being it's a massive positive it was blown up. I never cared about the who.

AFAIR it was in intl waters, I don't see that pipeline sabotage as aggression towards the West. If our fibre optics are cut or North Sea or Norweigian oil production sabotaged, that definitely would be.

ginger22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120328809#Comment_120328809

Chinese economy in big trouble at the minute. Most of their ports backed up with empty shipping containers, exports way down on normal. Severe cut backs by factories, a lot of workers left go after Chines New Year. New car sales sales crashed.

kevthegaff

I'm wondering are the Chinese gona make a move north rather than south in the long run after Russia is severely weakened.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120332653#Comment_120332653

In the long run.

http://bbc.com/news/world-europe-50185006

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329360#Comment_120329360

They have a worse age demographic problem then Russia if its true they where over-estimating their birth rates the past 30 years with local governments inflating actual numbers to get more grant funding

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Society/Did-China-overestimate-its-births-Leaked-data-raises-questions

In 30 years time China will be a fairly desolate place by all accounts, their is estimates that 100m 20-40 year olds that where thought to be part of the Chinese population simply are made up, if this is the case their entire economic model is toast in the next two decades

I remember reading China's population is to half by 2100 🤔

Reggie.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335954#Comment_120335954

Yeah, the 1 child policy is coming home to roost. Also evidence of chinas population is 100 to 200m overestimated as local governors gave false birth numbers to get increases funding for thier area.

All the talk of the world's population getting unsustainable but many forecasted the earth's population to go in decline over the next 50 years or less.

We could be at max population in the next few years

yosemitesam1

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120357537#Comment_120357537

One of the greatest lies the Devil told the world was that he did not exist. Ukraine had been perpetuating this lie since the New Year or before even in Bakhmut.

We are nearly defeated here. You wonder why. They seem to be hold it quite comfortably. The cry we are nearly defeated has become more shrill the more we hear of Russian problems.

I suspect the Ukrainians are trying to keep the Russians engaged there as long as possible. If you are killing and maiming Russian's and in particular the Wagner group at a rate of 5 or even 7-1 you do not want the gift that keeps on giving to go away.

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120357813#Comment_120357813

Lol you're a glass half full man anyway bass... Time will tell...

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120357881#Comment_120357881

Time has been telling for the last year.

BAKHMUT is Putin and Wagner groups Stalingrad. They have absolutely being decimated there losing a thousand a day at times. In the last few months there they probably have had 50k dead and seriously injured in that killing zone.

bogman_bass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120357813#Comment_120357813

They are just doing another Stalingrad.

soviets kept fighting there and pouring in reinforcements to draw in German 6th army and hold. Them there long enough for them to be enveloped by Operation Uranus

older by the day

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120362155#Comment_120362155

My taughts exactly. Hitler taught invading Russia was "kicking down a rotten door". Napoleon taught the Russians would surrender if he went east. They just went east further. I would not go celebrating yet.

Of course there were people on here 12 months ago saying it was a done deal

Tonynewholland

Looks like Zelensky over ruled the army about pulling out of Bakhmut. Ukrainian soldiers been sent there now not to happy about it knowing their fate.

This guy does a good interview in general and he has a good guest here in relation to the war https://youtu.be/vNhSCF9i8Qs

He is of Ukrainian and Russian extraction as well

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120363729#Comment_120363729

Regarding Bakhmut, whether it's a good or bad decision, who made it, or why, won't I suspect be known for some time.

I've seen various opinions on the casualty ratio between the two sides. If they have narrowed, then withdrawing from Bakhmut seems sensible as it will have served it's purpose and isn't a prize in itself.

It may be a political decision to try to ferment further problems between the muscovy ministry of defense and the wagner orcs, and to generally frustrate the invaders plans to announce success of any kind.

Zaluzhnyi has proven himself an effective military leader and I believe recently has said Bakhmut will be held.

Regardless of any speculation about this town, the West needs to increase the pace, volume, and level of technical ability of the weapons it's sending to Ukraine to shorten this war of genocide.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120362630#Comment_120362630

Key difference is that it’s the best of what the French and Germans came up against (The Ukrainians) that are now fighting the terrorist state formerly known as Russia - Muscovy.

That’s a key difference

older by the day

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120364262#Comment_120364262

I hope your correct. I Know this will offend you. But there will have to be some cease fire and a treaty eventually to end the war.

Field east

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120364513#Comment_120364513

Would that include a two metre wide blue and yellow painted line showing where the border - as per 2013 and internationally recognised at that time- is between Muscovy and Ukraine?

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120363729#Comment_120363729

Once Russia take bakhmut, presumably there is 30-50miles of hard to defend land before they get to the next big town? Meanwhile they can focus on getting bakhmut up and running as a distribution hub, train line runs through and they'll have protected storage conditions from attack in all the salt mines etc. So attacking supply lines in that area is much harder.

Ukraine has to start showing some serious results over the next six months if it is going to hold support and convince the west it's actually possible for them to retake a big chunk if not all the land.

Their choices would seem to be attacking north of bakhmut and trying to drive Russia back or pushing towards the sea in the south.

Russia will presumably make either of those much harder if they succeed in pushing outwards a significant distance from bakhmut.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120364901#Comment_120364901

BAKHMUT HOLDS

We have been hearing this defeatists talk about Bakhmut falling for the last five months. It quite clearly a killing ground being used by the UA to great effect. The casualty ratio is 7-1 in the Ukrainians favor. It's the gift that keeps on giving.

4-5 months ago we were told it would fall and the UA should retreat. Three weeks ago it immiment fall was predicted. It was nearly surrounded. Probably 15k Russian have been killed and maimed there since. There is intelligence to suggest that 50k+ Russians have being killed or seriously injured there since last Autumn. And the lost of soldiers is only part of the story, There has been a serious loss of munitions and materials by the Russians army there.

If it falls the UA will have decided to withdraw. It's Putin and Wagner group Stalingrad similar to what destroyed Hiltler's Sixth army on that occasion.

Even if the Russian capture Bakhmut ( but remember BAKHMUT HOLDS) it will be a Pyrrhic victory for them.

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120364965#Comment_120364965

You might be getting carried away with the propaganda. The amount reported killed there varies massively. Might Ukraine be exaggerating the amount killed to justify sending thousands of poorly trained men to be slaughtered? I don't doubt it's possible...

Russia obviously sees something of value there. Either they're happy with their losses Vs Ukraine's there and/or it's strategic for them.

The majority of the losses there are convicts who were given as much training using a shovel as a gun and aren't viewed as any great loss.

But will Ukraine be able to pull back in an orderly manner? It will be very difficult. They should have looked to Russia's withdrawal from Kherson for some pointers

Out of this series of tweets #3 is 👌

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1636258087517536256?s=20

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120365092#Comment_120365092

Independent intelligence assessments by the British indicated a casualty rate of 5-1. Ukraine is getting 20-40k soldiers trained continuingly by NATO countries. The US as well is giving specialist training on specific armaments so it unlikely that the UA are sending in untrained conscripts in any great numbers.

The say cannot be said of the RA. I doubt if the majority of losses are Convicts. There is no doubt that the Wagner group used them as Cannon fodder. However recent Western intelligence analysis is indicating that the group has gone from 50+k before the war to about 20 k at present. It is now failing to recruit by all indications from ex/retired soldiers or from prison population due to casualty figures from the war

As well the RA has stopped them recruiting from the prison population as these are often used as a source of labour in it military industrial production. So what amount of the losses were Cannon fodder convicts probably in the 10-15k bracket. That would indicate that 2/3rd or more are Wagner recruits or ordinary RA soldiers.

I am sorry to break the bad news but even if the Wagner group capture it will be a hollow victory. They will not be able to capitalize on the victory as there losses are too high

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120366242#Comment_120366242

How do we know that they are telling the truth 100% reflecting the reality on the ground? We don't and never will but they will feed us the picture that they want us to have.

If Ukraine doesn't make any serious inroads into the Russians in the next few months they're not going to.

NATO wonder weapons plus NATO weapons Vs poorly trained russians who don't want to be there and only have old rusty guns, rotten shells etc. It will be an embarrassment for Ukraine if they don't succeed...

Reality though looks more like Ukraine is just hanging on.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120366512#Comment_120366512

Wow, so that's how this war looks through Muscovy tinted glasses. Bizarre.

Not only will Bakhmut hold out - but, the upcoming advance will drive the Muscovites back like they did in Kherson. Don't fret about the Ukrainian push... it will come. And your boys will be routed.