Is it time to join Nato

Polar101

I'd be quite happy if there was a credible European defensive pact, but everyone who has interest in defending their country has already joined NATO. EU defence won't work with the UK not in the EU any more, Germany's military will take years to rebuild, Italy has no money and the French are busy with domestic issues. So at the moment "EU defence" is a concept for those who don't really want to do anything about collective defence.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456258#Comment_120456258

Very accurate.

A woolly notion of EU collective defence (minus the US and probably Turkey, an incredibly important lynchpin militarily and geographically, and likely the UK outside of it) is for the moment for the birds. It's shorthand for letting Russia away with murder and rewarding their prickery for no particular reason besides some sort of watery Chomsky-lite nonsense.

And even at that, a lot of the thoughtless left would spit the dummy at the prospect of collective EU defence with Ireland involved as well.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456258#Comment_120456258

And even if they got it off the ground they would spend the next few decades deciding who's the biggest dog therefore calling all the shots ,

Germany despite it's military being a **** show would want to be in total control followed by the french,as it stands in the next few years Poland will be the most powerful military force in Europe and they will want a big say , along with the UK

We would likely try to demand a say despite not being able to defend our own island and not willing to spend on the defense forces,

Let's put it to the citizens assembly ,no time the government grew a pair of Balls and put forth a real defense overhaul and strategic planning for the next few years

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456291#Comment_120456291

I can't recall where it was written, but the notional NATO minus US was put as this:

Paid for by Germany, commanded by French officers with French military doctrine and national interest at its core, and Eastern states providing the rank and file getting lectured to. And everyone scratching their heads why they let the US go home with the decreased ability to respond to threats.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120455936#Comment_120455936

That may have been the situation 10 years ago. It isn't now. There is a line in the sand. It was put there at Russia's provocation. All interests and assets of NATO members and their allies, friends and associated nations, are a legitimate casus belli for conventional military action beyond the borders of those same nations in response to any attack, of any scale, on those interests and assets.

Kermit.de.frog

I would prefer us join NATO, and personally find our neutrality embarrassing and offensive (being aloof between good and evil, not a good look), but if we are going to remain "neutral" we need to have some ability to defend that neutrality like Switzerland. Otherwise it's a load of nonsense.

greencap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456258#Comment_120456258

France Germany and Poland have all announced big boosts in defense spending.

The UK not being involved is the very reason why EU security is making progress.

EU collective defense missions are happening right now, 21 civilian and 9 military according to one source, incl Ukraine, Georgia and Africa. Irish personnel are involved.

Pesco integration and procurement projects are well underway, pretty much all EU members are involved (Malta and Denmark excluded - Denmark set to re-decide). (UK and Norway are associate members too).

EU seems pretty set on strategic autonomy.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456532#Comment_120456532

The notion of "European Strategic Autonomy" as an alternative to NATO unified command comes straight out of the Élysée from 2017 or so.

It doesn't and won't work because:

• The French want someone else to pay and lead it
• The Article from the Lisbon Treaty that provides for collective security is p*ss weak as a sop to states like Ireland and Austria
• The Germans don't want to pay and despite what Scholz said still don't. Evidence of the Bundeswehr pulling its weight and modernising is thin on the ground. Scholz can make all the announcements he wants, until the money gets spent and procurement starts happening it means nothing
• Eastern states with a bit of muscle like Poland and the Baltics who are directly in the firing line know the Franco-Germans are talking nonsense so have fully thrown their lot in with the US and the UK who are actually putting their money where their mouth is. NATO is the only show in town for the states with the most pressing security concerns
• If EU collective defence meant anything, Sweden and Finland wouldn't have joined NATO. Article 5 provides iron security guarantees underwritten by the most powerful country in the world, not the whims of the likes of "on the other hand" Macron who is currently doling out handjobs in Beijing and seemed to think he had done a great job when he went to Moscow when Putin was p*ssing down his leg.
• European collective security means f*call without Turkey. If NATO atrophies and Turkey flips to a pro-Russian or pro-Chinese stance, Europe is in a world of sh*t. Toy with this outcome at your peril

It's a Macron press release and very little else with no political buy-in from anyone.

Thankfully, the above is nothing more than a brainfart from Macron, and NATO has never had as much buy-in since the fall of the Berlin Wall. It's centre of gravity has firmly shifted east and it's here to stay.

greencap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456567#Comment_120456567

"Strategic autonomy is a policy objective of the European Union under the von der Leyen Commission.[3]

A first reference to strategic autonomy in the discussions of the European council of ministers can be dated back to December 2013. The European Council called for the development of European defense capabilities to enhance the strategic autonomy of the European Union.[4]" - Wiki

I mean you say it won't work, but a decade of planning by professionals in the field of such matters, and billions in investment by the EU would seem to suggest that maybe those in the know disagree with your take.

Theres nato, and theres the most powerful military in the world and all that good stuff, but the most powerful country is the world is way way way over there doing its own thing and electing unpredictable presidents, often isolationist ones. So yeah, EU's building a backup over here, thats the reality. And has been for some time. I think it will supplant nato in good time. Thats the EU's intention. Ameriboos won't like it. But thats where our taxes are going. You pay taxes in the EU right? 😄

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5xdielChdU

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456596#Comment_120456596

You can say Ameriboo all you want, but believe it or not, any EU state with a serious security concern emanating from the East is an Ameriboo. Denmark retains its opt-out for instance precisely because it doesn't want NATO supplanted. Every state east of of the Elbe is an Ameriboo. They trust Article 5 and it's the cornerstone of their defence.

You'll be waiting on EU collective defence becoming a credible reality, because between states not wanting NATO undermined (beleive it or not, many states place a hell of a lot of stock in the Trans-Atlantic alliance) , opt-out countries, and à la carte participants, it doesn't mean anything.

The legal reality of the Lisbon Treaty means that "mutual assistance" can mean anything any state wants. An attack on your sovereign territory could be met with a bouquet of flowers and a nice poem from your EU allies and it's the "mutual assistance" box ticked.

NATO's Article 5 means whoever attacks you gets Tomahawk missiles on their head and F35s crawling up their ass. That's collective defence, not what the EU is offering up and Macron or beurocrats in Brussels jealous about the NATO boys across town are daydreaming about.

TL;DR: The US as a security garuntor of Europe send sh*t sliding down the leg of people like Putin, and that's why it works and makes Tankies spit fire.

greencap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456603#Comment_120456603

Yeah but I dont mind waiting. Brussels is already a good few years and many billions in. Early projects in development. Missions completed. I really dont foresee a change of mind at this point. Europe will have strategic autonomy well within your natural lifetime, and youll help pay for it. Its set in regulation stone.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456612#Comment_120456612

Now I know you don't have a breeze.

The limits on EU defence is guided by Treaty, not Von Der Leyen or Commission policy or pet procurement projects, and EU Treaty is explicit on what "mutual assistance" means. You threw out the word "regulation" as if you know what you're talking about and now you're in deep waters.

Under Treaty, no country can rely on anything approaching Article 5 protection, it's a legal impossibility. It was weakened to such an extent (we as a country had a lot to do with it actually) that it's meaningless. Under attack, an EU member could concievably recieve a care package and thoughts and prayers, and that's it.

I'm aware the EU is involved in standardised procurement projects (with very very limited results btw, because national defence contractors don't like it) - it is not in the same solar system of what NATO offers in terms of actual credible defence and the scope of countries that make it work.

Like I said, EU strategic autonomy in the defence realm is a press release. You've obviously swallowed it in your credulity. NATO is here to stay, which is to say, the US is here to stay as security garuntor for the continent, which you really ought to be grateful for, because there is no credible alternative.

helimachoptor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120455931#Comment_120455931

Fwiw, i live in Georgia and unsurprisingly there’s a generational device with how they view themselves.

anyone under 35 or so would be very much pro Europe, they learn Georgian, English and normally German.

as you get more removed from that age group, the more mother Russia they become tbh.

Also most Georgians know that they are on the extreme periphery of Europe.

greencap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456616#Comment_120456616

Cool. Youre still funding the EUs eventual nato replacement. Every month. And it seems youre in denial.

The regulation bit was a joke, as in an EU regulation joke. EU regulation stone.

Natos defense in Europe is chiefly (and unsurprisingly) made up of Europeans, who are EU citizens of EU member states spending EU funds from EU taxes and being guided by EU laws and EU policies from EU councils. This town aint going to be big enough one day. Its only a question of when.

You say common defense is a press release, but many years and many billions have gone into it. What do you think is really happening, come on now. The funding of this "press release" is continual, theres no mention of any end date, large bureaucratic branches dedicated to its long term goals have been formed. Its integral. Its enmeshed with multi billion euro national defense budgets. And this is early days. That looks a lot like something in the ascendancy.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456632#Comment_120456632

Ok, let's indulge you for a moment. What "regulation"? The word regulation actually has a legal meaning in EU terms.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456345#Comment_120456345

As bad, and arguably worse things happened during the much more fraught times of the cold War without escalation to military action. I do not for a second believe NATO would seriously risk nuclear war over some cables or pipelines (I also think this is a good thing). It would lead to more and more economic pressure and more pressure and threats put on other nations to commit to them also. Military action is an utterly gigantic step and we are all very lucky a number of calm and sensible people over the decades realised this.

Nato is vital for those at risk of direct Russian aggression and collective Western defence in general is a good thing. But it historically has not and likely will not deter general Russian fuckwittery.

greencap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456759#Comment_120456759

Didn't I already explain this? Am I talking to a bot?

"EU regulation stone" was a bit of a joke, a lighthearted jest. A reference to Brussels tendency to place regulations on stuff.

You can just read it as ' definite decisions have been made' or 'they are very determined' if it helps.

Jesus.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120457264#Comment_120457264

No you didn't explain it.

You dropped in the word "regulation"(thinking you had a gotcha) which has a definative legal meaning in EU and regulations are binding on member states.

You were asked to pony-up what regulation amounts to member states being compelled into anything resembling an EU collective defence. You're running away with the ball now claiming you were "joking" because you've been caught out talking nonsense.

Nothing "has been determined" because member states are not compelled to do anything in this sensitive space which many many states don't agree with the direction of travel.

greencap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120457275#Comment_120457275

Regulations are clearly no joking matter for you.

You're German, arent you.

Hallo.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120457285#Comment_120457285

I read that as a litte white flag conceeding you've been caught out talking pony.

greencap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120457290#Comment_120457290

Everyone else sees a wee pun. A bit of fun.

You seem a bit stressed.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120457322#Comment_120457322

Everyone else sees a wee pun

No they don't. They see someone out of their depth posting about things they know little about.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120452686#Comment_120452686

Well I guess we will have to agree to disagree so. I find I like living in the for all its warts free open and democratic society that Ireland is and have no desire to live in a world dominated by the kind of nasty authoritarian regimes that China and Russia are.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120454067#Comment_120454067

I never said that NATO is protecting us in Ireland from the authoritarian regimes in Russia and China. Ireland is not part of NATO so obviously NATO would not be protecting us at least directly at any rate. That is the point of this thread in general, should Ireland join?

greencap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120457349#Comment_120457349

Ok so wheres the press release you mentioned in post 3391.

PS. we're never joining nato, and your tax is going to the EU defense fund, and theres nothing you can do about either.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120455663#Comment_120455663

I agree with you that our lack of defense capability is being exploited already by the Russian dictatorship. Not to mention that while the authoritarian dictatorship in Russia may not be about to invade Ireland any time soon the fact is we are still suffering significant economic damage with the large sums of money we are having to spend to house the approx 80,000 Ukrainian refugees in the country plus the money it will cost our vital tourism industry with the hotel bed capacity that will be lost this year as a result.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120454677#Comment_120454677

Then you have Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia 3 very small countries all of whom are NATO members and have not been invaded by the Russia dictatorship.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120455787#Comment_120455787

I know I certainly like living in the for all our warts free open and democratic society I do and the way we are behaving as members of a collective in terms of the EU while not pulling our weight in making a contributing to defending that collective despite the significant benefits we gain from being part of the EU is incredible selfish and wrong IMHO.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120457531#Comment_120457531

Wow, just wow. The US defends this continent, not Europe. Just a fact of life.

brickster69

Interesting interview with Macron after his visit to China.

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview/