Is it time to join Nato

robinph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118765846#Comment_118765846

It's true that various norms have been ripped up by Putin. Still doesn't change the fact that Ireland has nothing of value for anyone to invade and doing so would leave any invading force wide open to being destroyed before they even got off their boats.

If Ireland have a substantial military that is then aligned to NATO then it changes and Ireland becomes a target.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118766773#Comment_118766773

But this based off the opinion the British army will come to our rescue ,if that's the case should we not request to rejoin the union , being were expecting them to defend us ,that way we already have nato security

robinph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118766863#Comment_118766863

The UK would be responding to an invasion of Ireland in order to defend themselves. Nothing more.

The only reason to attempt to invade Ireland is to then attack the UK. If Ireland has a significant military force then they become a target that needs to be taken out as part of the offensive against Western Europe.

shillyshilly

I don't think so yet, but it should be something that is at least discussed presently.

Russia have bigger fish to fry getting access and influence back into the Balkan's and Baltic's, but what happens, in the short term if that goes spectacularly wrong, or right in the long term ?

Ireland becomes quite the easy strategic target then for similar reasons Iceland is (and why Iceland joined NATO).

Neutral is great on paper, but plays into the hand of the aggressor.

robinph

Where are Russia invading Ireland from?

They can't manage to adequately back up a land based attack on their neighbour, how do they manage to attack from the sea and on the opposite side of Europe, in an ocean that is surrounded by NATO countries? And why would they attack Ireland? What would they gain from doing so?

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118765111#Comment_118765111

"It's naive to we will never be invaded"

The country most likely to invade us in the future is the UK.... which is an indication of how unlikely we are to be invaded.

shillyshilly

Putin's on a land grab, we're a very soft target with strategic advantages, like Iceland is.

We can't rely on others to protect us, as we'd be in the similar position as Ukraine, where people will send all the best wishes, but won't physically intervene, so not to be seen as NATO attacking Russia...

There is the EU, but I'm not sure how the defensive posture is projected in regards to:

a) countries which are neutral, but in the EU

b) countries in the EU and NATO also

i.e. could France/Spain intervene under a EU banner instead of NATO, or would it get messy where something like only the Swedish could give help (if they haven't already been invaded)?

Is there more to the super secret agreement in place with the UK Government to provide more than aerial interception facilities?

I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen, but from a strategic defence position, it's a bit naïve to just gloss over the idea of it from a "ah sure we've nothing Russia wants" , or "it's grand, we're in Europe"

I feel it should be something discussed now, rather than fumble about it last minute like the Swede's and Fin's are.

edit: and the fact they're contemplating joining shows being part if the EU means zero defensively

robinph

Russia invading Ireland and the UK doing nothing about it would be like USSR trying to setup nuclear weapons in Cuba and the USA doing nothing about it. And in that case Cuba had asked the USSR in, I don't expect Ireland to be inviting Russia over to setup any bases.

shillyshilly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767620#Comment_118767620

I'd like to think the same.... but without pen to paper and Ireland coming off the fence, it isn't a guarantee quite frankly

bob mcbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767620#Comment_118767620

I agree it would be a bit like a hostile power invading the Channel Islands. Like the Germans did in 1940.

robinph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767803#Comment_118767803

You don't need the UK to agree to anything to know that they will make moves to protect themselves. Unless there is some reason to think that someone else would want to invade Ireland, and then stop and go no further, then it's just about the UK protecting themselves.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767291#Comment_118767291

I don't think it (being in EU) means zero defensively. There is a strong collective defence clause in Lisbon Treaty (the one that Irish govt. and "morally superior" Irish public made a fuss over, and was watered down somewhat so it would not directly conflict with the old sacred cow neutrality).

However the EU militaries are mostly fairly weak, they have been run down and defunded since the Cold War ended. By contrast NATO has the US in it, & that is a giant stick that threatens very bad consequences on some country that might decide to attack a NATO member.

I would assume that would be why Finland and Sweden might (?) re-consider or re-examine joining in the new situation post Ukraine war (so the US would be bound by this to help them if Russia attacked). It may be less relevant to Ireland [IMO] (we don't border Russia, not as directly in their line of fire).

robinph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768107#Comment_118768107

And the Channel Islands then led to where for the Nazis? Just gave them a bit of a claim to have taken British territory, but the UK wasn't bothered to do anything about it as it wasn't a risk to the rest of the UK. Was just taken so that there wasn't anywhere for the UK to get back into France from. The Channel Islands were a risk to whoever held France, not to Great Britain.

If a hostile power holds Ireland then that is a risk to the UK. But anyone, other than the UK, trying to take Ireland and they have an impossible logistical barrier to deal with of needing to bring everything in by sea and remain supplied and without being noticed before making their move.

Trying to take Ireland, and only Ireland, is a massive task for anyone, and pretty much pointless as it doesn't gain you anything useful... Unless you are about to then attack the UK.

shillyshilly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768125#Comment_118768125

I'd like to think the UK would have the balls to do such a thing.

But by that logic also, Poland wouldn't have just been willing to pass MIG's indirectly to Ukraine, they'd be flying them in there themselves.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768573#Comment_118768573

This is all conjecture.

You have no idea what kind of response a serious hostile power threat to a neutral Ireland's maritime territory, airspace or indeed the island itself would generate from the UK.

Perhaps deep in the vaults of the British MOD in Whitehall there are various scenario plans with a suite of responses depending on the severity of threat to the UK, but you simply don't know, and pretending to know or predict the response and having that as your national defence doctrine is next to useless.

shillyshilly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768295#Comment_118768295

But the "sure we don't bother them, they won't bother us" excuse isn't a solid deterrent when someone is on a land grab.

Say Sweden and Finland join NATO, Russia make some ground with their "well these aren't in NATO so we'll invade them, and if any NATO country gets involved, we'll send nukes" approach elsewhere.... Ireland becomes quite an attractive strategic post to the Russians.

Anyways, not a decision for today, but definitely shouldn't be off the table imo, especially if the Swede's and Fins join and if they make any headway west into the Balkan's.

robinph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768974#Comment_118768974

Yep, it's conjecture. But so is thinking that anyone would want to invade Ireland for no reason other than to invade Ireland.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769025#Comment_118769025

I don't think you know what the definition of conjecture is.

One is a possibility (hostile interference to Irish territorial waters, airspace or land), whatever the percentage chance of it.

The other is you coming to a conclusion something will definitely not happen, and if it does "I can predict the UK military response with accuracy".

The latter is dictionary definition conjecture, the former is not.

bob mcbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768573#Comment_118768573

Do you realise what you are saying.

If a hostile power takes Ireland then the UK will put in place "an impossible logistical barrier" to the hostile state. This is more commonly called a blockade.

How many Irish civilians will starve as a result of your "impossible logistical barrier"

robinph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768951#Comment_118768951

Unless you believe the Russian claim about them only invading Ukraine to reunite Russian people, denazifiy, demilitarise Ukraine and other such nonsense.

robinph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769046#Comment_118769046

The impossible logistical barrier is called the Atlantic ocean and the continent of Europe. One of which you have to fly over without getting shot down by any of several other NATO nations, the other you have to sail past several other NATO nations and avoid any US ships which make their way over to join in.

Just to feed half the city of Berlin during that blockade required constant flights, and they weren't under fire at the time. Carrying out such an operation far from home and with your supply lines around and over hostile other countries just isn't something that can be done.

Do you think that Switzerland considers itself at risk of invasion from Russia ahead of any of the surrounding countries?

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769163#Comment_118769163

The Swiss state has always armed itself in a serious manner and took the notion of a possible invasion from any power, present or future seriously. That's the insurance they've decided to have against invasion and to backstop in so far as they can their long-held policy of political and military neutrality.

In the Cold War, the spectre of a Soviet invasion was indeed taken seriously. I think it was in another thread, but I posted about a senior Swiss military intelligence officer who converted an old 'big-house' in West Cork into an outpost for a Swiss government in exile after a possible Soviet nuclear strike / invasion.

That's the difference between Swiss neutrality and the Irish one. One country has spent centuries thinking about and investing in defence to protect its serious commitment to neutrality across the political and military domains. The other one's neutrality is a woolly residual sentiment inherited from WW2 when the leader of the time decided it would be an expensive business to be involved in that particular war, and we'll cross our fingers the Germans don't get around to us. That has carried over to the present day, where a national defence doctrine of "be sound" has prevailed.

National defence policy and planning is not about crystal ball gazing and conjecture like you seem to think it is - it's about risk planning and risk mitigation.

Talk of the Atlantic being "an impossible logistical barrier" and making presumptions about how the future of Europe will look is pretty dunderheaded and irresponsible. It's akin to the Swiss thinking the Alps are some sort of magical forcefield and turning swords into ploughshares just because they'd save a few quid.

robinph

If WW3 kick off in full then being a member of NATO or not really doesn't matter. You pick your side, or not, and get stuck in.

Spending more on defense is fine, but spending to make the standards of other NATO nations now isn't sensible use of money. There is a risk to all countries if WW3 kicks off, there isn't a risk to Ireland as being the starting point of WW3 though.

Improving things that are useful, such as marine patrol boats for dealing with smuggling for instance. No need to worry about getting fast jets to attempt to take out Russian aircraft though, they are not a risk to Ireland

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769274#Comment_118769274

Again with a conjecture heavy take on Russian fighter jets and the level of danger they pose, now and into the future. You have an astonishing faith that the Kremlin's military posture or indeed competency won't become a threat to either Irish airspace or Irish territory in all possible scenarios.

Few would share that faith after what we've seen the past few weeks. But hey ho, you've got the crystal ball on full power and a relentless optimism that the world and our neighbourhood will always remain like Teletubby land - so I guess we shouldn't even invest in defence never mind keep Nato membership on the boil as an option.

robinph

If you think that NATO will fall apart and it reverts to the situation from over 100 years ago with each European nation fighting it out amongst each other for taking over other parts of the planet, then sure it would make sense for Ireland to up it's defenses to protect against that.

Russia and China or whoever else are not a risk to Ireland though, at least not until after they have taken out NATO first, by which point Ireland having a slightly bigger couple of boats and a couple of fast planes isn't going to make the slightest difference. Being a member of NATO is also not going to help as that just makes Ireland higher up the target list of whoever is going for world domination.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769022#Comment_118769022

I didn't really hold that view of the world/our exposure to threats ("they won't bother us if we don't bother them").

We are in the EU. We are not really "neutral", certainly not when events like those in the news at the moment are happening, when other EU members are under a threat from neighbours with a proven track record of starting wars to conquer their neighbours.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine was of the opinion that Ireland was being negligent & lazy about defence matters and to extent dumping burden of thinking about and paying for such difficult things onto others (UK, other EU members).

I did not think Ireland should join NATO or needed to (because of geography, and the security guarantees implicit in EU membership) but if for e.g. there are more collective defence/military moves in the EU we should participate in those despite tradition of our "neutral" stance.

Still don't think our situation is at all comparable to those of Baltic states, or other (non NATO) neighbours of Russia under direct threat. That would really concentrate minds here & probably we'd have been in NATO long before now, neutrality and moral preaching etc. be damned. Agree though its something that bears watching + considering (when I assume it was a million miles of agendas of any politicians or the public before this war started).

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769317#Comment_118769317

You do realise that if Russian invaded Ireland a neutral country that they have no historical connection with they would have no allies left. China would even cut them off. They are getting away with this invasion from their allies as there is a connection and can convince their allies that they have enough interest in the Ukrain to invade (20% of Ukrainian population are part of the Russian nation).

Russia has no interest in us and there would be no excuse for them to invade us that would not inevitably cause them to be isolated by the world. Also I belive their nukes can reach the UK from Russia so again they don't need to put them on Ireland. The idea of russia invading us is comical and parniod.

Why didn't Hitler invade us given that we were a sitting duck.... because he had no interest in us and we were neutral. Perhaps if we have not been neutral a few planes may have bombed dublin.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118766294#Comment_118766294

The you didnt really look at the thread.

I posted tweets about this from a historian from DCU... again look a bit deeper. Irelands NATO Membership was on the table a few times.

markodaly

I think people need to look at the obvious stuff here.

Not so much about NATO, but more about a pan EU defence pact that will be kind of like NATO but without the American involvement.

We may not have a choice to opt out here, as we for one, we are part of the EU, we owe our wealth to the EU yet we are not going to support defending it, after the backing they gave Ireland during Brexit?

I can see it being put to us, we are either in or out of the EU and we need to make up our minds about this. The softly never neverland neutrality we try and carry on with is gone IMO.

end of the road

neutrality is going nowhere, no matter what blackmail is thrown at us.

it has served us well, it will continue to serve us well, anyone who would currently invade us has no legitimate reasoning they could rely on to do it and would have no support in doing so given our neutral status.

however, joining nato at least means that those countries in their eyes have now got legitimate reasoning.

also the often believed nato will protect us line is not actually quite so simple, it seems that in fact the only obligation and guarantee under nato is that they will meet to discuss an attack on a member, but there is no obligation or guarantee that they must step in or will step in.