Is it time to join Nato
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To clarify my earlier post.
Ireland must improve its military capability given the current world order since 24th February 2022
Like most people I remember where I was when I heard about the 9/11 attacks. I could not believe what was happening. It was a game-changer for international affairs. Similarly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a game-changer for the world order and a wake-up call for everyone.
I mentioned Finland as the Finnish have been historically neutral, like Ireland. In the last few weeks, they have made the difficult decision to join NATO. They have similar population and GDP to Ireland. Any argument that Ireland cannot afford a significantly bigger military is no longer applicable. This may have been an argument in earlier decades. It is true that the Finnish have a large land border with Russia. The Finnish , also, have a history with Russia and fought bravely in the 1930’s to fend off a full invasion. But they still lost territory to Russia. Ireland is an island, however, and could be attacked from the sea.
It is the responsibility of any government to put in place procedures to protect its people. Ireland must assess the current world order, as it is, and it must upgrade its military accordingly. This is regardless of neutrality and regardless of whether that involves joining NATO or not. For many Irish people a move to join NATO would be distasteful. However, Ireland joining NATO must be debated.
I mentioned the Russian fleet that travelled 18,000 miles to try to secure a warm water port from Japan in 1904 . The fact is that a warm water port has always been a significant strategic benefit to Russia, hence their attempt to take Mariupol in Ukraine and form a land corridor to Transnistria in Moldova, controlling the Sea of Azov. We still do not know what the Russians were doing off the coast of Cork in February 2022.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/warm-water-port.htm
America currently holds Guantanamo Bay on the island of Cuba for its fleet. There is nothing that the Cubans can do about this. At the current time Russia could invade Southwest Ireland and colonize the area for their fleet. They could also go through the country up to the border like a knife through butter.
This would give Russia an easy victory after the embarrassment of the sinking of the “Moscow” and the mauling they have taken in Ukraine
This would also give Russia a strategic position to control the North Atlantic, The Baltic and the Mediterranean against NATO from a warm water port in the Southwest of Ireland. The USA, the UK, France, and the EU would make significant speeches and noises but would do nothing.
Putin does not care how many of his military gets killed. He will cover it up back home. He would care even less about Irish neutrality or how many innocent Irish people would get killed and maimed along the way. This has already been demonstrated in Ukraine, Chechnya and Syria.
The strategic significance of a similar scenario was discussed between Churchill, Roosevelt, and De Valera during the Second World War for the Allies. A United Ireland was discussed with De Valera as payment. But he declined.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/britain-offered-unity-if-ireland-entered-war-1.281078
There is nothing Ireland could do were this to happen at the current time. Ireland does not have the strength, currently, to even discourage such an attack. This is with all due respect to the Irish soldiers who have an exemplary record serving in the British Army, the US army and, latterly the UN since 1960. There is not enough of them, and they do not have the right equipment.
Irish politicians must also be careful in their speeches. Many of them are making bold speeches against Russia with nothing to back it up.
A frightening and alarmist scenario? In January 2022 I would have agreed. Now I am not so sure. “Group-think” got Europe into the position where they are so dependent on Russia for oil and gas, when everyone has known for years what kind of a tyrant Putin is.
Right now Russia has its hands full in Ukraine and I fear for the people of Moldova. We must significantly improve our military capability in any case, whether Ireland remains neutral or not. We must start this now!
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We need a whole new restructuring of the defense forces first and foremost ,we recently bought 2 new patrol vessels (2nd hand) that will need to be crewed ,the Navy are struggling to crew what few vessels we have let alone frigates and cruisers.
We need advanced radars for air and shipping, we need medium lift helicopters , possibly gunship type or at least helicopters armed something with more than a FN mag for defense ,
While we now have 2-3 pc12 ISR aircraft they don't exactly have advanced avionics such as Long range sensors/radars for tracking aircraft and ships ,
It's looking like they are replacing the camouflage currently used by the army for something most nato countries use multicam .
It's not going to cost 10 billion ,it's going to cost multiples of that based off spending 2-3 billion per year every year going forward
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Further to my earlier posts, concerning Ireland’s lack of defence,
The 24th of February 2022 was a game changer for the world order. The big issue was that the invasion of Ukraine did not make sense. It has brought the world back to the 1930’s. Russia lost all leverage and credibility on the diplomatic world stage at that time. Sanctions, isolation, and Western support for Ukraine has made things, and will continue to make things, quite desperate for Russia. Now Russian actions are quite unpredictable. The Russian generals and admirals are in fear of a purge by Putin, like Stalin conducted before in the 1930’s. They are not unlikely to grasp at anything for any sort of victory and this situation is extremely dangerous. They may well be looking for an easy victory, with impunity, to strike back at NATO for their logistical support given to Ukraine.
https://www.history.com/topics/russia/great-purge
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/956656/russian-generals-turning-on-one-another-avoid-purge
Another look at the NATO map of Europe is necessary. Russia has its hands full now and getting mauled by the Ukrainians. Sweden and Finland are about to join NATO and go blue. Switzerland is landlocked inside NATO countries and safe. Russia may invade the former Yugoslavian counties, formerly under Soviet control. But Ireland is a safer bet. Ireland has no defence whatsoever. An easy victory.
Russia has a huge Navy, the third largest after the US and China.
https://www.edudwar.com/top-10-strongest-navies-in-the-world/
The US does not have access to the whole island of Cuba, only Guantanamo Bay. They have been there since 1898. Cuba is a non-aligned ally of Russia. Ireland is a non-aligned ally of the USA. Joe Biden, President of USA, claims Irish heritage!
If Russia invades Ireland, then nobody would intervene, just like Ukraine. We are on our own. The difference between now and WW2 is the existence of devastating nuclear weapons. It is worth looking at Mark Felton’s six-minute video on Russia’s Satan 2 missile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjrPS8Lzs2g
NATO will not come to Ireland’s aid, directly, because of this, just like Ukraine. Ireland is not in NATO.
So, Ireland is on its own. It has no defence. Finland spends 1.5% of GDP on its military, Ireland currently spends 0.29%. This is incredible. Being on its own, Ireland should spend significantly more on defence, as a deterrent. This is regardless of considerations to join NATO. Joining NATO is a separate discussion. Far more important is that Ireland should be able to defend itself in any case. Currently Ireland cannot!
Ireland has battled for nine hundred years, against its near neighbour, for independence. Why would Ireland risk throwing that independence away now by putting up no defence? Neutrality should not mean weakness!
Ireland is “blinkered” into thinking that our near neighbour is the only potential enemy. This is outdated “group-think” mentality.
Irish Politicians like Claire Daly MEP and Mick Wallace MEP would probably not agree with this scenario. Claire Daly MEP misguidedly believes that it is possible to negotiate with Putin. “It’s peace, and peace isn’t delivered by the barrel of a gun. It’s delivered by diplomacy. By dialogue.” Claire Says. Such dialogue with Putin, and people like him unfortunately, can only happen from a position of strength.
https://www.thejournal.ie/clare-daly-sanctions-russia-european-parliament-5731540-Apr2022/
If the Russians get into Ireland, it will be impossible to get them out like the US in Cuba, unless they want to leave. They will cause carnage and misery and wanton destruction, just like they are doing in Ukraine. I do not even want to think about such a thing in Ireland. We must mitigate against it.
What I have outlined is a potential scenario. It is possible to criticize it certainly. But, the Irish military Defence Chief, Lieutenant General Seán Clancy, and his staff, should be modelling such scenarios all the time and producing contingency plans on how to deal with them. Then General Clancy should be knocking on the defence minister Simon Coveney’s door demanding more assets to defend the country. Then the Taoiseach’s door.
Why is he not doing this?
What were the Russian Navy doing off the West coast of Ireland in February 2022?
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@robindch Yes, spend more money, but things like coast guard and search and rescue. Don't join NATO and spend money on expensive planes and armaments though as it won't be enough to make a difference, and just puts a target on your back..
But if you don't invest in defense sitting with your head in the sand makes you an even bigger target because your weak and cowardly .
Spend money on the coast guard yeah , but first and foremost we need to invest in the defense and increase capabilities across the board for all of the defense forces Air , Ground ,Naval , Intelligence .
No point waiting until another flag gets raised over buildings and then crying if only we did this and did that we wouldn't be in this position
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