Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring 2022
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Looks like the Eastern half of the country best chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, maybe peaking in an area somewhere around North Leinster and the NE . CAPE readings not huge but if there are enough breaks in the cloud to provide heating then there could be a fair scattering of thunderstorms. With fairly cold pool aloft and a negatively tilted trough with decent amounts of DLS and LLS some convection could produce hail and heavy downpours and possible spot flooding. I reckon Met Eireann will wait to see how it develops much before making a decision if it warrants a warning. Will be interesting to see if any funnels are spotted or some brief tornadic activity. Looks to clear considerably early evening for much of the country.
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Yeah my place out by Ardfert had little of the big showers, very localized, got soaked and couldent move from wher I was sheltering for about 10 mins. My rain readings are gone wonky and unreliable atm, I see The spa had 7.3mm , Killorglin 10.4mm, Dooks 11.1mm all today, Castleisland 14.4mm
Killorglin coming in at 36.4mm last 7 days / Castleisland 35.1mm
Ballybunion coming in at 21.4mm.
Don't know how accurate these stations ae but North Kerry would get less rain then near the mountains.
All the activity today in the N NE, haven't seen much footage on line so take it rainfall was not too severe , haven't seen any reports of hail or funnels ? Pales in comparison to the weather in Germany / Europe today.
Some destructive footage coming out of Germany today. ESTOFEX were on the ball, ended up giving a level 3 forecast. Unfortunately quite a few people injured and some seriously, a lot of damage done.
Very high CAPE values, Temperatures in the mid to high 20's, Low's with strong winds, troughs and cold front going through, huge shear both low and deep , high Dew points in the high teens. Tons of fuel .
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Upper trough moving across Ireland with quite cold uppers giving a showery day on Monday with the slight chance of a few sporadic isolated thunderstorms possible, more so in the afternoon when a bit of surface heating gets going. Some scattered heavy showers with the risk of hail.
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A few hundred j/kg available tomorrow across Ireland, lapse rates fairly impressive given that there is not much DLS but there is some decent LLS, soundings below for near Limerick and near Clonmel, where the showers occur they could be quite heavy giving locally strong convective gusts , hail a possibility and would imagine big temperature drops where there are showers. KO index good for thunderstorms. Have the feeling there could be a fairly widespread storms breaking out.
Out of interest will be watching for areas of convergence in such places as along the S and SE coast later in the afternoon as convection peaks crossing the land on a NW'ly airflow, could see some big showers and Thunderstorms there where soundings are decent given that some convective clouds will be primed by the time they reach the coastal counties. Topography may play a part as well like in the W where there could be some activity. More interesting looking.
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Just seen Dan Hollys forecast on Convective Weather
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 23 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 24 May 2022
ISSUED 19:32 UTC Sun 22 May 2022
ISSUED BY: Dan
A rather messy pattern evolves on Monday as an upper trough moves slowly eastwards across the British Isles. The forward side will engage with a frontal boundary straddling East Anglia and SE England to bring renewed pulses of rain here, slowly clearing to the North Sea. Elsewhere a more showery vibe is anticipated, but as numerous showers develop they will likely morph into areas of showery rain due to a combination of either a shallow convective layer (and therefore convective infill) or due to rather moist profiles with weak cloud-layer shear. This will generally limit the risk of lightning, although a few isolated strikes may be possible just about anywhere (perhaps eastern Scotland most favoured). Meanwhile, Ireland will be located under the upper trough axis with the cold pool aloft creating an environment more favourable for deep convection and hence a greater chance of lightning. It seems plausible that 300-500 J/kg CAPE will be available by the afternoon, and a few thunderstorms will be possible. However, under the trough axis cloud-layer shear will be weak and forecast profiles yield tall, skinny CAPE. Nonetheless, in all parts of the British Isles the rather slack regime with areas of low-level convergence and/or topographical enhancement could aid the development of a few funnel clouds. Showers or longer spells of rain will persist in many places overnight, rotating around the main surface low over the North Sea, and hence there will be an ongoing (low) risk of lightning associated with this activity.
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Looks like most activity along coastal counties or just along the coasts, it would seem that convergence played its part in the end, not enough oomph for most parts overland for the convection to become electrified.
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