Thursday 24th March 2022

very quiet around here after t'big upsurge in interest for Cheltenham festival,, As I, number one poster 😝, am still here, i will try to get some picks up when i can,,, a confident enough pick at a likely short enough price is what i have for thee early doors,,

3.17 Sedgefield ZAFAR ~ 3/1 on the probable win NB

Looking at this race and i see the jolly is the ~ 11/8 shot Desaray Girl,, likely named by a Neil Diamond fan, if i had to hazard a guess,, am doubting this one is going to be getting any gold here (unlike Neil, who has many Gold and platinum accolades from album sales - possibly 'Diamond' too, but i'd need tae luke that one up) . DG teks part in Class2 Handicap here, on ground what atm is described as good,, may well be betterer than good come Thursday, and i aint so sure that good (or betterer) ground will suit Micky 'ammond's mare ere,, that's one negative,, negative number two: she's stepping up in grade significantly, on the back of three runs and three wins, and those were in a Class 5 lto, and a Class 4 the time before that, and a Class 5 to begin the 'atrick,, negative number 3: she likes to lead, and so does one or two more in this,,, On plus side, she has found a new level of form recently, and is a C & D winner from her last run in a race ran in a fast time, plus Emma Smith-Chaston is on top again, as she has been the last three times, so i wouldn't be laying Desaray Girl for millions here,,,

The top one Lord Torranaga has only had four hurdles' runs, and is a course winner over shorter,, he's stepped up in trip ~ 3fs more than what he's ran over before,, has been running on the flat as of late, but, back hurdling and notwithstanding the longer trip, i am hoping he will also try and lead and to keep jolly honest,, possibly will be held up here to see out trip, but can only guess re race tactics,,

Ashington, the ~ 4/1 third fav, won this renewal last year by making all, on good ground, though the time wasn't spectacular,,

Donald McCain's ~ 10/1 outsider Blakeney Point completes the opposing quartet, and the 9yr old son of Sir Percy looks a doubtful stayer here,,,

Could be that Desaray Girl will be way too good for opposition, and she doesn't have much weight to carry here; but it's a Class 2 on good ground, and not a Class 4 or 5 on good to soft, or heavy (which she won on in her 2nd and 3rd last runs),,, if she's trading at her provisional price of 11/8 on the day, then it might be worth place laying her for two places, just on t'offchance,,

I think my pick Zafar could be one to pick up the pieces here,, hard to make a proper solid case for Donald McCain's (he also has Blakeney Point, ridden by Hughesie here, but am not reading much into that, as the pick Zafar is a McCain - Mrs Sian McCain - owned beast, so no surprise Abs gets t'mount here, and will thusly draw a line thru Blakeney Point as being the stable's no 1 prospect in this) other horse for this 2m. 3f. 188yds. , and almost £10,000 to the winner, hurdles' handicap,,, plus points for Zafar: # he can chase the pace , # he has several win and place runs from similar trips, including a win at Kelso last September on good to firm,, negatives is he has never tackled a Class 2 before, and could well be caught for toe in this,, worth a bet at 9/4 or bigger imo,, if the fav flops here anything can win, and it's worth a go on ZAFAR at a reasonable price, to believe that he's capable of giving a good account under t'likely conditions,,

Gl all 😊

3.55 Cork

had a look at most of these and pen landed on three,,

SWEET WILL 6/1 Boyles/Lads e/w ,,, a bit bigger online, with Willie Hill going 13/2 and 365 going 7/1

think this one has best chance of those towards top o betting.. 2nd last run at Limerick, when coming 3rd over a similar trip and going, reads very well here,,,

2 at bigger prices that can go well too,,

APPIAN WAY 25/1 gen e/w

has an absence to o'ercome in this,, am liking his 2nd last run, which was at Gowran Park,, that sort of form is good enough to give him a chance in a race like this,, he came 2nd that day, but ran poor enough lto,, pretty inconsistent, but so are the majority of these in a race for maidens (over hurdles only? - i don't know,, am assuming maidens 'under rules' )

INAGH'S GIFT 25s gen e/w ,, 365 go 33s

usually runs on soft or heavy going,, came 6th over shorter on better ground lto,, that were back in November over 2m at Thurles,, she came 6th of 18 that day,, didn't scream stayer, but will give her t'benefit, as was pretty much her only hurdles' run on good ground, and there's no quality on show here..

might go down to ye shoppe ltr and do these, but am assuming most b&m shops are going 5plcs,, 365 going 6 best i can tell

Gl

j@utis

I wouldn't surprised at all if an "outsider" won that 3:17 race, Lord Torranaga hinted that he's good and fit on his reappearance in Wolves...

SonOfGoat

1.0 Huntington, cornicello, around 15/8 I've backed this to win. Not great form at all but in contrast to what's in the race it should be too good if trying and won't get much of a better opportunity to win.

It's a tricky looking race tbs the 3.17 ,, last year's winner Ashington (frontrunning performance, and in a poor time) , who opened up fav @ ~ 5/4, is now trading @ ~ 2s,, Desaray Girl is at 2s also, which is fair enough,, got 9/2 on Zafar early on, so happy enough with that,, is now BP 4/1 with 365 and ~ 7/2 generally...

Lord Torranaga has had 4 runs over hurdles, and all of them at ~ 2m , so staying is a ? for him imo,, best i can tell, horses sired by Planteur only really operate at around 2m, and not much further,, all guesswork tho 🙂

Honn ZAFAR! 😂

State of play as far as tomorrow's Ncs card goes, is a thundering disgrace imo.. had a look y'day, and there were ~ 14 - 20 runners in every race, and no draws/stalls allocated,, Was like looking at a card the day before final decs - almost,,,, tis the same today, at least according to my computer,,, maybe it was a late fixture or summit,, too many horses to look at, and it don't look that interesting anyroad. maybe Odd Socks Havana in t'first, who's in good recent form, though the apprentice Paula Muir aint great,, that's if t'horse even goes to post, and assuming there is any racing.

Zafar 2nd :( ,,, winner was a good fav so he was, Ashington,, strange race - horses were going almost different routes it seems 🤗 thought Zafar was going to win on a few occasions - til late on 😃 - as was travelling well in parts,,, long race tho 😁

that's enuf from me unless i have a go at Cork race

Posh Boy

Got lucky on Ratoute Yutty in the 15:40 @ Huntington

I m going for a little e/w flutter on Nells Well and Capilano Bridge in the next one @ Cork

Posh Boy

Get in Nells Well!!!!

Posh Boy

Next up is Heltenham @ Chepstow, followed by Mankool in the 16:55 in Cork