What will happen in the North

skimpydoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031124#Comment_119031124

Thats what I was thinking.

O'Neill

I don't understand personally how people are suggesting that if Stormont breaks down again works on SF's favour. Personally, the SF voters I know want the assembly to get back up and running.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032815#Comment_119032815

A second election could work against Sinn Fein. They spent the whole election campaign saying it was nothing to do with a border poll and everything to do with the cost of living. They have spent every minute since the election result talking only about a border poll, and doing nothing about the cost of living.

People shouldn't fall for that twice.

mariaalice

What is interesting to me is the almost after though comments from the media about the Alliance, the rise of the Alliance party is a massive story yet conventional media are almost falling over themself to get their story out of the way so they can keep talking about SF and the DUP.

Sunny Disposition

Tbf a Catholic taking the top office is a very significant moment. Okay, there’s no more power, but it does show that nationalists aren’t permanent laggards now.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119038163#Comment_119038163

Centrism doesn't sell papers or generate clicks, firstly.

Secondly, that the Alliance party has been growing isn't really a new story, but Sinn Fein being the largest party in the NI Assembly is totally novel. A watershed moment in NI politics.

Zebra3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119038094#Comment_119038094

They’ve done nothing about the cost of living since the election? How many hours/days ago was that Leo/Micheál?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119038094#Comment_119038094

You've invented this because in your cups you can't think of another criticism.

MLMD gave her view in an interview in which she also covered other issues. They are not spending every minute or anything like it talking about a BP. They turned up for work today while the belligerents stayed away, sulking like yourself about a border poll.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119038836#Comment_119038836

Only thing we have heard from them is tired old stuff about a border poll. Nobody listening.

Sunny Disposition

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039652#Comment_119039652

Come on, SF got the most seats in the Assembly, some people are listening to them. A lot of people both north and south don't want to hear about a border poll, but it is a significant political issue. With so many people voting in favour of parties who favour ending partition a border poll is going to have to be held at some point, unless there is a collapse in those parties support.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039652#Comment_119039652

You are either unresearched or willfully misleading.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039724#Comment_119039724

It is a fallacy to think that support of 29% for Sinn Fein in Assembly elections leads to a border poll. The continued flatlining at best of the nationalist vote below 40% is a better indicator of the max of support for a united Ireland.

Ham_Sandwich

It's gonna be fantastic with Sinn Fein in charge in NI and a preview of when we get them in down here as well, free houses, free healthcare, free education, free bins they'll be well looked after up there same as we will when we vote them in.

Mad_maxx

SF only need to bide their time , with all that is going on in the world , beit inflation or Putin threatening all sorts , no one is going to indulge unionists on this issue , Labour have a good chance of winning the next british general election so even the London government wont indulge their nonsense , the world doesnt have time to entertain such trivialities in a tiny region of the UK

Sunny Disposition

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040415#Comment_119040415

Slightly less than 40% voting for parties that wants NI not to exist is huge, I'm not an SF supporter by any means, but no way can NI be seen as a normal country with such an electoral situation. Only a small number more voted for unionist parties. Realistically if a border poll happens anytime soon (in the next ten years) it'll be closely fought. As is the case with most referendums it'd only become apparent which way it'll go as the campaign progresses.

I can see why some people don't want a border poll at any stage, but saying there isn't significant support for a united Ireland is clearly not the case. It may not be enough to win a referendum, but it's definitely significant.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040557#Comment_119040557

Belgium is a normal country that exists with such an electoral situation. Catalunya, Basque and Scotland are other regions that exist in similar electoral situations.

Would be expecting 70:30 against unification in a border poll.

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032559#Comment_119032559

Exactly. The people banging on about a "border pool" appear to Unionists mostly. Shitting themselves over a bogeyman that's probably still many, many, years away. Can't see the Shinners pushing for it in the short term, because they know it'll move voters away from what they were voting for in the first place. The majority of people voting for SF are, more than likely, uninterested in a border poll at the present time, and are more interested in seeking a better future in economic and general living terms.

All of this "border poll" gibberish seems to be built on one side's fear and fearmongering.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040495#Comment_119040495

You need to understand that the system of government in the north is totally different to here. SF are not 'in charge' for a start. Maybe research is your friend here.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119038094#Comment_119038094

the evidence shows otherwise.

cost of living along with health and education have been the main talking points, a border pole in the long term has only been mentioned a couple of times and it's the minority talking point.

SF are only going to increase their vote, slow and steady, the DUP are finished, it's over, belligerent unionism is in it's death throws.

the people know SF can't do anything because the DUP won't work with them and get the assembly up and running and SF will not be blamed for that.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040637#Comment_119040637

So bloody transparent. Belligerent unionism are to blame for no languages act, for the RHI issue, for Brexit, for the Protocol, for everything that is wrong in Northern Ireland, but now, when the shoe is on the other foot.............SF are not in charge.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040570#Comment_119040570

" 70 - 30"

youre having a laugh ? , Id be amazed if the majority was any larger than in the scottish referendum if it was held next week , never mind in a number of years

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040557#Comment_119040557

As is the case with most referendums it'd only become apparent which way it'll go as the campaign progresses.

Is that really the case though? I'm not aware of any research evidence suggesting that any significant cohort from the PUL community would even contemplate voting for a UI. Do the nationalists really believe they could persuade them? If that still holds the only significant group genuinely up for grabs is those from the CNR community who say they would prefer to remain within the UK. I expect most of these to revert to tribal voting in the context of a border poll but I don't think that would be nearly enough to threaten victory.

The only scenario where I can envisage the result being genuinely close is if there is mass apathy and failure to turn out on the Unionist side, versus the opposite with the Nationalists.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040988#Comment_119040988

They simply aren't blanch. You need to do due diligence here.

RHI was caused by the incompetence of a DUP minister, The Irish Language Act was repeatedly blocked by the DUP. The DUP backed Brexit not the Executive, and the DUP are blocking the return of the executive because of the Protocol even though there is a clear majority in the Assembly in favour of retaining it.

Those are the facts. They managed all the above and they were 'not in charge'.

Listen back to Leo on the News At One, he explains the northern system very well on it. Maybe you'd listen to him, because god knows I'm sick, as I am sure others are too, of explaining the system to you.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041176#Comment_119041176

Well, if Sinn Fein are not in charge, then there is nothing to congratulate them for, so why are you whinging about that?

Edit: Oh, you have started listening to radio programmes now, or is that just the ones that Mary-Lou is not on?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040495#Comment_119040495

I am sure that many of their devoted aficionados on here will be packing their bags and moving north to the new paradise now that Sinn Fein have the First Minister post.

firemansam4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041031#Comment_119041031

I wouldnt agree much with what this poster says but I would say he probably wouldn't be too far off on this point.

If I was having an educated guess going by the election results, I would say a vote for a UI in the 6 counties now would be between 35 - 40%

Dont get me wrong, I would like to see a UI someday myself, but just can't see it happening in at least the next ten years unless something drastically changes.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041214#Comment_119041214

Jesus, somebody is in real pain...real pain. 😁

Do you accept that they are 'not in charge' blanch?

That it is not the same system as it is in the south?

The Executive is the 'ruling' party in the way the government is here. And the executive is made up of a cross section of the parties in the assembly. Totally different.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041225#Comment_119041225

The presentation of a plan would drastically change things. See what happened in Scotland where 32% favoured independence before the publication of The White Paper.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041176#Comment_119041176

It's a fact that Unionist posters keep seeming to skirt around. A majority of NI MLAs and the country's population are currently in favour of retaining the NI Protocol, at least until suitable alternative arrangements can be found ( I understand the AP's position to be that they will vote to strike down the NIP when the UK and EU can agree on something else). Neither a hardening of the border on the island of Ireland, nor the implementation of a customs border in the Irish sea is ever likely to garner support from a majority in both communities. That's the unfortunate position we arrive at because the UK crazily allowed Daily Mail readers to remain enfranchised and Nigel Farage to spout misinformation and half-truths. If Mr. Donaldson wants rid of the NI Protocol, he can either wait for the UK government to provide those aforementioned alternative arrangements or else hope the UK ditches the protocol altogether after yet another round of brinkmanship with the EU over trade, which, to be fair, is a story that is back in the news...

https://www.cityam.com/uk-has-given-up-on-brexit-talks-and-plans-to-kill-off-northern-ireland-protocol-next-week-as-trade-war-with-eu-looms/

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041271#Comment_119041271

If you are correct, that they are not in charge of anything, the position of First Minister is just a meaningless sinecure for politicians. You should be asking for Michelle to step down and not crying about people failing to congratulate her for getting a position as valuable as chairperson of your local busybody committee.

I mean, which is it? If it is as meaningless as you say, then there is nothing historical about achieving it.

You keep trying to have it both ways in a mumbo-jumbo of contradictory nonsense.