Softening house market?

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799225#Comment_119799225

Vast vast majority are built to higher standards. Let me know if there are any new builds that are worse in terms of structural materials than 15 years ago. I get that buyers have to pay, but my point is that builders aren't building the same house and charging more. It's not just greedy developers gobbling up benefits and providing the same product.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799347#Comment_119799347

But your statement that there is no value in 2nd hand homes does not stack up as new homes the value like heat pumps and BER ratings your paying very high premium for.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799332#Comment_119799332

As i already said, if AIB or BOI come out and do the same i would be more concerned.

cubatahavana

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799347#Comment_119799347

Exactly. Bought a semiD A3 (nearly A2) in 2020. 170 sqm in south county dublin in a good location and near to good schools, pub, etc. it costs me the same to heat and maintain that heat, than my previous 2006 90sqm apartment (B3). Can’t hear the neighbor and he can’t hear me either. Fantastic sound and heat insulation. The garden is similar size than the older houses in the area. I went into a house nearby similar size to ours but built in the 90s-2000s and I could feel the dampness when entering. I don’t get the bad rep newly built houses get. Give me a brand new house anytime.

IWW2900

I predicted this rate hike would really kick into consciousness that property prices are going down.

Leo Varadkar today said prices may drop a little.

Understand, this is basically a warning, prices will drop more then a little. Central bank tried to slow drops but Varadkar slipping in a subtle warning there.

Drops will be sentiment driven and will gain momentum.

spudrick

So, I've a big decision to make. I've got money in the bank and am ready to buy a suitable house that is available to me (needs a small mortgage to cover the final 15% or so of the cost which I already have approval for), and I need to decide whether to go ahead.

It feels like the worst time to buy - at typical prices ~2 years ago I could have bought this house without any mortgage at all, and if interest rates rise I might find prices put me in that position again next year. I'm not paying rent in the meantime so there's no financial pressure to move from that either.

On the other hand, I've been looking for a year, I'm picky about my requirements and houses that suit are rare, so even if prices drop it may take a very long time for something I like to come available and I kind of want to make the move and get on with my life as I feel a little bit like I'm in limbo until I make the plunge.

What would you do? On the one hand I'm keen and on the other I'm a bit paralysed by the thought that I'm potentially buying at the very top of the market and how much I might regret it depending how things go over the next year or two.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119802410#Comment_119802410

A house is to live in not look at the value of it every month to see if it’s up or down. If your requirements are specific and something is available at a price you can afford I’d suggest going ahead.

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119802410#Comment_119802410

Look, obviously, no-one can tell you what to do, but as someone who has havered all year for reasons not dissimilar to yours, there's an argument for not putting your life on hold any more, and just getting on with it. I'd say the market has already slowed a little, just not feeding into the numbers yet, so you're not buying at the very very top, if that helps.

It's hard to tell what's going on out there - supply has stopped going up, and I don't see much sign of original asking prices dropping. There's been a tilt towards a higher ratio of price reductions vs price increases (except maybe in the last week, since the lending limits changed..?) On the other hand, after a few weeks off from searching, I booked a few viewings today and none of the properties have offers on them yet.

IWW2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119802410#Comment_119802410

Wait a bit longer.

IWW2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119802514#Comment_119802514

Thank me later.

mcsean2163

I remember someone here said Amazon stopped hiring...

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63421170

combat14

'Failing our children' - principals warn over teacher shortage

https://www.rte.ie/news/education/2022/1028/1331821-teacher-shortage/

the effect of lack of supply, uncontrolled immigration, unrealistic over priced rents and extortionate property prices on our economy and children's future or perhaps wages here are just far too low or taxes far too high.... maybe qualified professionals should stay and slum it in dublin city .. but why would they with much better options in dubai, canada, australia and on occasion down the country ... something has to eventually give in the economy or dysfunctional housing market here ..

riddles

If we see a downturn in the multi national workforce inflated salaries and ex pat leaving for different countries the current price of houses will seem a pipe dream. Added to increased borrowing costs.

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119802976#Comment_119802976

Interesting that you've taken "uncontrolled immigration" as a cause of the problem from that article when it isn't mentioned once and in fact the teachers they spoke to identified one of the reason for shortages is that there are too many controls on migration making it hard for foreign teachers to come in and have their qualifications recognised to work.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119802410#Comment_119802410

Spud I would look at what your paying for rent vs the new mortgage, IMO there is a correction coming but I can only see it happening after the war in the Ukraine is gone, we are getting more people in to house than ever before. So I would weigh up how much your paying in rent for the next 12 months compared to the mortgage. I would make the decision based on your own macro situation. As in do you need local access to schools, how far are you from work is their other cost saving benefits for you as in is there good public transport you can use. I would be wary of the Nostradamus like lads on here no one knows what way things are going. I do think there is a correction coming as wages simply can no longer compete with the house prices and I think the auld emigration release valve will kick in but only after the refugee crisis is gone and emigration will start to go in the opposite direction as young people in this country simply cannot afford to live anywhere either in renting or in buying.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119802410#Comment_119802410

If its the dream forever house, you have to buy when its for sale.

Flinty997

The problem is people aren't willing to buy with so much uncertainty due to Ukraine etc.

Maybe its peaked. Hard to know with high demand and little building. It had peaked before COVID but instead of causing a decline it boosted the market.

Once things stabilize with Ukraine people might be more willing to commit. Or things might be worse.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119787402#Comment_119787402

We have an apartment coming empty next month and we are selling it. A friend in work told someone else and now i have a torrent of emails begging me to let them live in it even just until its sold. But I cant do that because im hearing lots of cases where when it comes time to move out they change their mind and stay because they cant find anywhere else.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119801859#Comment_119801859

The houses built from around 2002 to 2007 are no better than what went up in the seventies and eighties, I sold a 2003 built house over the summer in Kildare, like a cave compared to my brother in laws 2017 built house in Castletroy Limerick

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119802127#Comment_119802127

A part of me suspects that the Government will intervene to try and protect mortgage holders from increasing interest hikes. The likes of FG and FF care more about home owners than prospective home owners. Any such intervention will have a knock-on affect on prices (propping them up)

byrne249

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119802410#Comment_119802410

Exact same boat as yourself. Back living at home. Really want to buy. Personally think things are slowing perceptibly. Been looking at Navan in particular and 3/4 bed semis do not seem to be selling, occasional asking price drops, one dropped 21k to 319k this week.

Same story on new builds across Meath, e.g. effernock trim, willows dunshaughlin, availability approx 4 months after going for sale. Selling out in no time this time last year.

Plan is to get mortgage approval in December, maybe 3x. Tentatively see where rates and whatnot stand in Jan, part of me is saying to wait till our rates hit 7% like in the US/UK or the EU indicate slowing rate rises, the risk here is that everyone with a bit of cash is waiting for the same thing. Aiming second hand, only underbidding, no new builds. 'If' the market falls over the couple years after purchase, I could dip my toe into the market again. Personally prefer having a mortgage and keeping my cash on hand.

On the other side of it, It's very unlikely anything close to 08 happens. Plus, there is no gaurantee that the house you are looking at goes on sale in the event of a crash. Very few sell when the market is low.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119803758#Comment_119803758

Another valid point, aside from those that are forced to sell, people are reluctant to sell in a low market.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119803400#Comment_119803400

there is a lot of veiled blame on immigration and the displaced from Ukraine in this thread.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119803777#Comment_119803777

Housing has been dysfunctional for decades. Ukraine adds more pressure. But hasn't fundamentally changed anything.

We've a boom and bust economic policy driven by successive governments.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119803773#Comment_119803773

We have an apartment coming empty that we have decided to sell. If prices drop we will just use it as a holiday home or let friends stay in it for a few euro and a few pints under the table. Only worth selling it if you get a good price for it. It will never be rented again though either way

byrne249

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119802445#Comment_119802445

Beginning to wonder if people aren't so much worried about the potential crash but are actually more worried about how expensive the initial outlay and cost are and the concern is manifesting in the wrong questions. It's almost like, I know I shouldn't be buying this, hopefully I can sell it again if needs be, it better not crash.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119803670#Comment_119803670

Paschal Donohoe was fairly explicity that the Govt has no such intentions yesterday.

"I, nor indeed any government, cannot bring in measures that can compensate for what's going to happen to changes in interest rates."

"Indeed, if we were to do so, it would be counterproductive and potentially a new threat."

https://www.newstalk.com/news/we-cant-protect-you-from-rising-interest-rates-paschal-donohoe-1396478

what_traffic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119803758#Comment_119803758

"

Tentatively see where rates and whatnot stand in Jan, part of me is saying to wait till our rates hit 7% like in the US/UK or the EU indicate slowing rate rises,

"

I think you could be waiting some time for this to occur for the ECB - more likely it would not exist any more in its current form if it had to raise rates this high.

Going to follow the German economy this winter and spring 2023 and if recession is severe and inflation rates fall then strong possibility ECB rates could stall.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119803832#Comment_119803832

I think it this market if you can afford to buy you must be doing ok.

Unlike during the Celtic Tiger when people could buy way above their means.

Though everyone takes the risk that their finances will be the same or better in the future. Which isn't always true.

lisasimpson

If its your ideal house , your renting and have a family go for it. Peace of mind worth do much in long run rather than worry of tryi g to find a placeif landlord gives you notice they want you gone