Softening house market?

paulieeye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814169#Comment_119814169

You dont understand the mentality because you're not understanding the situation.

Of course its better to buy at a lower price. The problem is Person A does not know if the price will be lower or higher a year or 2 later. So the general advice is to not attempt to play the market and wait for a crash and its better to buy when you can afford it and not dump cash into rent.

ionapaul

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119822860#Comment_119822860

Are you looking in Stepaside? Just aware of a house that might fit the asking prices! :)

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119823175#Comment_119823175

Hardly 20 Euro/hr Bass. That's accepting 800 Euro a week less to have less of a commute for a person doing an average 40 hour week.

Or to look at it another way, 5 lads could club together to get a house in Dublin for during the week and pay for it out of the extra 20k/month they'd be earning between them compared to working locally where they are from.

tom_murphy112

Looks like prices going up next year.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/1102/1332821-property-prices-cb/

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825127#Comment_119825127

I cant see any builder getting the hourly rates your talking about both of you. The recession has not kicked in yet wait till the new year you will have builders crawling over each other for work.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825214#Comment_119825214

Considering Ireland can't get the builders to build half as much housing as we need, why do you think there will be large redundancies?

There are no signs of the housing crisis easing, or prices falling. I'm not buying any "Daft shows X amount of price changes" posts. I mean actual PPR quarterly price drops across the country.

theboringfox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825203#Comment_119825203

I am shocked that some of these articles pass for journalism. He references simply that some expect price rises and doesn't bother to say sources. He qoutes one source for the downside. I've no idea if prices will go up or down but there is nothing new in that article and nothing that points to prices will definitely continue to rise. There is supply issues in all countries. The markets where house prices fell have seen huge rate rises. To date amongst the main Irish mortgage providers there has been little movement in rates. If they do move and prices do not fall it will be an outlier to most other markets.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825214#Comment_119825214

I am also skeptical of the figures. Which was why I asked about them

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825203#Comment_119825203

That article's two to three months behind the curve as regards asking prices at least. It's been about an average 3:1 steady decline in asking prices versus increases in the last two plus months.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825755#Comment_119825755

Asking prices are not sale prices, which are the only metric people should look at.

IWW2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825755#Comment_119825755

One minute this guy is writing a review on the Google Pixel, next hes analyzing the housing market.

Ignore these people or expect the opposite of their predictions. And no...I didnt read the article, the heading tells me everything I need to know.

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825829#Comment_119825829

Asking price decreases are an indicator of a slowdown/cooling of the market.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825214#Comment_119825214

The hourly rates I quoted are for trades that are subcontracted in. These guys are all self employed. Most self employed electricians are subbing at 70/ hour for small mid sized jobs.

Builders stopped paying most of these by the hour years ago. Productivity was away too low. 12 years ago I talked to QA about it. A unionised blockies was laying about 200 blocks per day a subcontracted lad would do over double that. When I did my house direct build back in the early nineties a fifty year old blocklayer laid 400 blocks per day.

There is no sorting safe pass, no holiday entitlement or pension entitlement nor manual handling courses, the subbie sorts all them themselves. They provide there own safety gear, tools etc. The builder actually only provides the materials.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825127#Comment_119825127

The 20/ hour is made up of two parts first is fuel. These guys mainly drive midsized or large vans. Fuel economy is usually around 25-30 mpg because there is often a trailer or material inside the van. A lad traveling 60 miles to and from a job is putting up 720/ week for a six day week. That's is 24 gallons or 108 liters. That is 200+/ week on fuel alone. Add in maintenance and van replacement 100-150/ week. Then you have the time factors, travelling that distance is taking 3 hours per day I'd not a bit with it. Different between that and local work is 20/ hour minimum.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825214#Comment_119825214

Electricians are top of the rate pay wise. They have to have to have expensive test gear, there public liability is more( the general site liability will not cover them completely which for the wet trades and carpentry is grand). Test gear alone can be 5-6k depending on work taken on.

Plumbers are the next most expensive. The bricklayer, plasterers and Carpenters all work on output.

Even a Tiler or a painter are now around 200/day maybe even a tad above in some cases locally and they were always the most reasonable by far.

The reason most do not rent in Dublin is various. Electricians or plumbers because of security for there vans. A electrician near the city backs the van up against an L shaped wall that blocks access to both his side and rear doors. He has an alarm on the van and one of there steering wheel locks. He has a ground steel security poke in front as well.

Most of these lads are now in there forties they are gone from roughing it in rented accommodation. You have to factor in meal costs as well. Very few are interested in coming back to rented accommodation and preparing a dinner, sorting out meals for breaks the following day. At home the better half will have cooked meat, and cheese in the fridge, some will go to the deli counter for morning break and lunch. All of them want a dinner in the evening. Some of these lads could be burning 4-500 calories an hour.

WhiteWalls

The money tradesmen are making a day in Dublin is criminal. Lads doing odd jobs in houses are really milking it, 500 euro a day cash would be common. Fair play to them in one way but greed is not a good thing either

WhiteWalls

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825214#Comment_119825214

The new year is less than 8 weeks away.. What's gonna happen in that time frame?

Things may slow down but there simply isn't enough tradesmen in this country, why would they just have no work overnight?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825970#Comment_119825970

It's great money if you are a Dublin based trades person. However if you are based outside Dublin take 60-80 away for transport costs. Then allow for your holidays and bank holidays ( 30 days) allow a couple of regulatory training days per years and a sick day or two. That is about 13-15% of your pay. If you are an electrician or plumber your public liability. Allow for tools and test gear as well not generally an issue for wet trades but carpenters have a good bit of gear as well.

Most are vat registered now as well, especially electricians and plumbers not an issue if you get cash but it is for all other work . On a 70/hour charge rate its 8.50/hour.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825952#Comment_119825952

The 20/ hour is made up of two parts first is fuel. These guys mainly drive midsized or large vans. Fuel economy is usually around 25-30 mpg because there is often a trailer or material inside the van. A lad traveling 60 miles to and from a job is putting up 720/ week for a six day week. That's is 24 gallons or 108 liters. That is 200+/ week on fuel alone. Add in maintenance and van replacement 100-150/ week. Then you have the time factors, travelling that distance is taking 3 hours per day I'd not a bit with it. Different between that and local work is 20/ hour minimum.

Wasn't the point of my post Bass. I wasn't even bothering to argue any of your figures. I think your figures are a bit off, but that is irrelevant to the point.

Which is that - if your argument is accurate - that person could decide to cut out all that expense and live in Dublin. Or to put that into reverse, and using your figures, a person working in construction down the country could be earning 800 Euro per week more if they rented a house in Dublin so that they didn't have all those bills you calculate.

WhiteWalls

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119826074#Comment_119826074

It's better than great money, it's outrageous. Look, I'm probably just jealous but something is not right for lads to be making a couple of grand in cash a week. Now they work hard no doubt

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119826090#Comment_119826090

Most of them are settled and living where they are. In Cavan, Louth, Meath, Carlow or Offaly they have a fairly decent house, the spouse could be working locally just like many others that commute in and out of Dublin.

Ya this discussion came up in another property thread 6+ months back. Its was another posters that said subcontracting trades people working in Dublin needed 1k/week to travel in and out.

If you stayed up there you would end up travelling up and down a day a week anyway. Nothing more boring than staying in a rented house, invariably you end up going for a few drinks 2-3 night a week, to watch a soccer match or to meet some other lad...or go chasing tail. Half the lads that do that end up separated.

If you are a sparky or a plumber, there is no way you will stay in rented accomdation. Some lads will stay in BnB or digs type accomdation for a day or two a week. But the reality is if you can earn X/week near home you will want X+Y to work in Dublin.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119826103#Comment_119826103

But Invariably they do not. They might get 4-6 weeks( some lads will do better) per year.youvwill seldom get 500/ day cash for a week or a few weeks work.

If you get all cash at the end of the day you need to lodge some of it.

I used to go to a doctor he used to charge me 40/visit, another lad used pay him by card and it was costing him 50/ visit. He changed to paying cash

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825854#Comment_119825854

Not a good indicator though. Property is seasonal. Few want to buy this time of year and drag a sale over Christmas. So are we seeing a seasonal dip, or a cooling off? Impossible to tell from asking prices.

If you want to believe we're in a downturn then go ahead. I said it before that I've haunted these forums for years and seen all the same fluctuations, while the average prices ticked higher.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825661#Comment_119825661

There is signs of prices easing/droping look on myhome house prices are not going up like they were and in a lot of cases priced drops are being implemented and this is with the shot in the arm from the Central bank easing the 3.5 times you salary limit. Also most commodities have come back down Iron, steal, Lumber all back down to normal price levels. The only one staying high is concrete and even that has turned a corner. U.S just gone to 4% in interest rates we will be heading there too. WE are going to see a lot of people emigrating again over the next 24 months. Young people have no chance of being housed if they play by the rules (as in working in a job) either by renting or buying. Why would you stay here? I think we will see our housing crisis sorted by the old release valve of immigration. Already tech is showing sign of struggling big time. Big shifts coming in the likes of Intel, Microsoft, Google and Alpha in this country and with people being able to remote work they do not need to be in the country. Now add in that once the Ukraine war has ended people will go back and I never thought I would hear an Irish government telling refugees we are full but that is what is happening. So what do builders do when supply jumps off a cliff and access to credit is 3/4 times more expensive to get that extension done than this time last year. Not to mention a cost of living crisis, energy crisis, Covid still around and the war still being fought all fecking up supply lines and the man on the street looking at what he has left in his pocket, I can tell you now (As it has been this way throughout the history of recessions) big ticket items as in the new car or the extension gets taken off the list first. We will have to wait and see but I can see a huge release of pressure on housing in the next 12/24 months. It will be interesting to get a snapshot later today of Ireland unemployment rate and actual property prices for Sept and Oct of this year.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119826034#Comment_119826034

Well energy prices are going to continue going up as will most other costs. Interest rates will also be going up in December. Already we are seeing a huge drop off over the counter sales and credit card sales and that was comparing to a last year when we were in lockdown. Ireland as a country are too open an economy to not feel the pain that is coming big style in the U.S , Germany and the U.K this all impacts us. Our tech sector has suffered horrendous losses over the last week or 2 and all the big guys Alpha, Microsoft, Intel and even Twitter (after Elon's brain fart) are talking about cutting jobs and Ireland will not be immune to this. Our boon of corpo tax will be a lot less next year than it was this year. I said in on here a month or 2 ago the rest of the year will be focused on the Xmas as being Irish having one last hurray before the bill has to be paid is ingrained in us. It will be the new year that you will see a huge shift in peoples spending (this is already happening) and in emigration reversing and us seeing less people living here.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119826674#Comment_119826674

which is why there is also a comparison to the same time as the previous year. Padre its coming the signs are there as I say we wont feel it till January as Xmas is blocking a lot of peoples view at the minute.

Marcusm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825661#Comment_119825661

Because they have been building lots of commercial projects from offices, hotels, student accommodation, logistics centres and factories. At least 3 of those are going absolutely backwards in the next 3-6 months (offices, hotels, student accommodation) plus BTR apartments. The latter in some cases because of the absence of funding and in some other cases because planningbhas been rescinded by the ABP scandals.

Marcusm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825755#Comment_119825755

Does anyone ever put price increases on individual houses?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119827345#Comment_119827345

id love to know where all those young folks will be heading, as the cost of living is pretty much a global problem now, and many countries, that have been a magnet for such folks, are on the cusp of a banking/housing crash!

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119827465#Comment_119827465

On top the normal supply of private sector housing will also be coming to a standstill over the next 12 months due to the costs involved, this was flagged as soon as the ECB started talking about increasing Interest rates. So what do all of these construction workers do, they can emigrate where the same issues are apparently global or they can compete for work domestically.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119827478#Comment_119827478

Well you can look at the US , Canada, UK and Oz (the countries that would be historically highest on our emigration list) where property prices are all dropping, so a young person's rent/mortgage to income ratio will be a lot lower than Ireland. So at the very least they will be able to live somewhere not to mention that our income tax rates in Ireland are punitive to working hard or longer due to the relatively low point our higher rate of income tax kicks in.

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119824819#Comment_119824819

I said pretty clearly that we don't know if prices are going to go up or down. I'm not saying people should / shouldn't wait or buy. What I'm disputing is when people justify their decision by saying that it doesn't matter if you pay more or less unless you're planning to sell later - it definitively does matter as the price you pay will affect your quality of life for decades.

Dante

I'm still finding that the houses I'm bidding on are going for at least asking price, often higher.