Softening house market?

callaway92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119827928#Comment_119827928

Yes, but have the asking prices been reduced over time in those areas, for similar properties?

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119827531#Comment_119827531

You're dead right, but at the end of the day you need somewhere to live. Buying a house is a myriad of factors. Financials ultimately decide IF you can buy, but it's your life, work, and family situation that dictates the what where, and when.

By rights, the past 3 years at least are a bad time to buy a house, no matter where. You're buying at a peak and the house price may never reach this peak again. Fair enough.

But if you have a family, your rent is extorsionate, you're moving for a job, etc etc etc, then the actual cost of the house might not be important in the grand scheme. And like all bad decisions, we'll just lie to ourselves and say it was a good decision.

Cllr_Dermod_Fahy

Anyone have the month on month price growth?

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119827478#Comment_119827478

This is the fallacy; Ireland is genuinely unique with its housing issues.

Remember, there are effectively zero rentals now available. Just go on Daft and see this. At least in the so called "other expensive countries" there is supply of housing available even at a higher cost.

Cristianc

I'm in the process of buying a 400K+ apartment right now and I don't like what's happening. But it might be worse if I don't buy.

If prices do go down due to less affordability with higher and higher interest rates and people will be squeezed out (higher living costs and loss of employement could also hit) they will add more pressure on the rental market - especially first time buyers which I understand are a large proportion of buyers.

On the other hand more and more buyers could probably turn to the government scheme where they pay less but don't own their home entirely.

if the rental market goes up and selling prices go down it could also turn into a feast for vulture funds and anyone with large amount of cash.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119829504#Comment_119829504

Yeah your in the the rock and hard place scenario. I dont know what I would do if I was you. I think it will turn into a feast for vultures and anyone with large amount of cash but I cant see it happening for a good 12 months with the lending limits increased I can see prices staying around the same rate for the foreseeable.

Donald Trump

Stripe letting go 14% of its worldwide workforce

https://www.independent.ie/business/stripe-to-cut-jobs-and-costs-in-major-shift-to-build-differently-for-leaner-times-42116243.html

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119829564#Comment_119829564

"The planned 14pc workforce reduction will cut the total employee numbers to 7,000 – around where it was in February this year."

"They were “much too optimistic about the internet economy’s near-term growth in 2022 and 2023”, underestimated the likelihood and impact of a broader slowdown and had increased operating costs too quickly, he said."

They hired 1000 people in 9 months for work that hasn't appeared, so they fired them. Is it bad business or reflective of the broader economy?

tom_murphy112

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119830082#Comment_119830082

Do you not think over 70% of the MNC based here will be part of the "Internet Economy" ?

I guess it is all speculation for now. They said the same thing in 2007 as well, but so have people been saying it for the last 8 years too..

Time will tell how we get along.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119830082#Comment_119830082

None of these things individually amount to anything. But if a pattern begins to appear then it becomes reflective of the broader economic situation. Stripe laying off 1000 people worldwide does not prove anything, nor is anyone saying it does. It might well turn out to be an indicator though.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119829564#Comment_119829564

They look like they've been caught doing something behind the sofa. Very odd picture....

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119830375#Comment_119830375

Well no.

Majority of MNCs in Ireland are medical, pharma and hardware, which are going nowhere any time soon. Something like 13 of the top 15 medical device companies have offices in Ireland, and not just a brass plate on the wall for tax reasons.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119831251#Comment_119831251

It will be another nail in the coffin of Dublin though as I don't think many of these bricks n mortar MNCs are in the city of Dublin, which is generally geared more towards big tech companies that are, unsurprisingly, implementing hiring freezes and even cutting jobs. Good to take some heat out of the demand side for rentals after many years of far too much demand pressure when supply was so muted.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119831391#Comment_119831391

I don't think celebrating job losses because property and rent prices might fall is a good thing.

gaming_needs90

Looking at houses now and its so difficult to know what to do. Has anyone done an analysis on the possible effects of the 4X lending rule combined with higher interest rates? I presume its another one of those "too many variables" to properly say.

On a general point, its very hard to also know when to stop house viewings and pick one or aggressively start bidding. There are always more/better houses potentially on the horizon 😅 We have viewed three houses in person so far and have almost jumped at all three, which seems far too quickly now that I think about it in the light of day.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119831574#Comment_119831574

Why? If you think an economy with rents and house prices doubling in ten years is something to celebrate than I would say that is not a good thing so should not be celebrated.

The housing situation has made further economic growth unsustainable as there are zero rentals available so companies cannot expand and hire more employees until supply picks up. Muted growth and some job losses in a few companies will hurt demand for rentals and allow supply to catch up. This is necessarily a good thing.

The lost revenue to the State is irrelevant as we can all see that balanced books is a myth and in fact the State runs the country on borrowing, which is evidently limitless.

The last thirty years, FF and FG have done their best to squander the wealth that came into this country. There is a fallacy that somehow FF and FG were responsible for opening up Ireland to this FDI model, but in reality, all Western countries experienced the similar economic growth trajectories over the same time period so in fact FF and FG just happened to be in power when it happened. However, FF firstly in the build up to 2008 utterly squandered all of that wealth, leading to a devastating recession and post 08 FG have done their best to scare off this foreign derived wealth from the country by making the whole economic situation unsustainable in the long run. They are two parties that have individuals that should be tried for treason for squandering the wealth of the last thirty years and setting us up for a second crash in the last 15 years by not being competent enough to invest any of the wealth. The country will reap what it sows for voting in these criminals and into next year it won't be pretty in Ireland.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119831652#Comment_119831652

So if I don't celebrate job losses cooling the market then I must be celebrating doubling house prices?

I'm not going to bother replying to the rest of the waffle.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832113#Comment_119832113

I am celebrating job losses though?

I am merely commenting on its impact to the property market as this is the property market forum. This news will alleviate some pressure on the demand side for rentals as will the general slowdown in big tech MNCs and, considering we are in a devastating housing crisis, that will go a bit of the way to starting to correct the imbalances in our housing demand and supply factors. In that regard, I think it is good to see demand for €2k+ pm rentals take a hit.

callaway92

Just in regard to a town/village like Clarecastle

Generally properties available ranged from 19-25 this year

At 16 now which is the lowest I remember in a long time - Many there (that I'd have considered ok pricing and look good) are stagnant on the site

Either people have calmed down on trying to cash in, or people have reigned back on buying (or both)

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832170#Comment_119832170

I've noticed a slowing in listing alright. It could be mostly seasonal factors though.

At this point in the year, anyone wanting to sell (particularly for inheritance reasons) would surely hold out till new year for the increase in borrowing limits.

JohnnyChimpo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119831391#Comment_119831391

Many of them are - Novartis, Regeneron, Amgen, Pfizer, GSK, BMS, Alexion, Janssen ... the list goes on including lots of CROs and diagnostics and medical equipment companies etc. Doesn't sound like you know the field

Dante

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119827946#Comment_119827946

Not really, no. Asking prices are still high as is demand judging by the various bidding wars I'm finding myself in.

callaway92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832233#Comment_119832233

That's a bit of an anomoly of an area so

Morzadec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119831595#Comment_119831595

It's hard to know what to do, I imagine each area is different too in terms of supply/demand. My experience of trying to buy in D12 (mainly Crumlin/Walkinstown area) recently is showing that a softening has definitely already happened, with it being unclear if there's going to be a big fall to follow but certainly some signs pointing that way in terms of the seeming supply/demand dynamics. We've ultimately gone Sale Agreed on a place at asking price (475k). If you had told me 3 months ago we'd get this place at asking I'd have been delighted as all I was hearing from friends trying to buy in the area was multiple bidders and properties going above asking. I think 6 months ago this place may have gone over the 500k mark, so we're feeling satisfied, though definitely wary that we could perhaps have waited a bit longer. Since we started looking there's been a massive increase on the supply side.

There are still some ridiculous bidding wars going on, for any turn-key/stylish property. We were bidding on a 2 bed in Crumlin (albeit a very big one at over 100m2, with a front room that could have been a 3rd bedroom) - it was very very nice, but ultimately a 2 bed in Crumlin and it ended up going for 490k.

There are 3 properties in this area priced at 475k that we viewed that we thought were decent enough and at the time seemed reasonably enough priced that have all now gone down to 450k - interestingly one is in fact a turn key newly refurbed property. I thought it would have fetched at least the 475 asking. There's another one at 475k that we registered to big on but never ended up making an offer - and afaik there's no offers there yet as I would have got a notification. Lots of properties are getting underbids - talking to friends looking in this area 6 months ago, the idea of an underbid was unthinkable. Didn't see a huge amount of viewers in each place we were looking.

There's a feeling now that perhaps we could have waited and maybe got our place for 5-10% cheaper in 6 months or a year. But ultimately we like the house, like the area and we feel that it's an "up and coming" area of sorts (so that any drop in the market might be counterbalanced by the area being seen as more desirable in the next 5-10 years). We also think we have already benefitted form the softening market - there's a house a few doors down that went at almost the same price as what we're paying that needs a full refurb, whereas ours is ready to move in and has been recently insulated and rewired. Then you add in the rent you're paying. If we wait a year we'd need prices to come down around 5% to break even, if we wait 2 years 10%. And that would be 1 - 2 years living in a smaller house. We like the house/area, it's a bigger house for cheaper than our current rent, and we're 35 with a baby on the way so we can't keep waiting forever. So for us it makes sense to pull the trigger, though I can understand why some might be waiting.

I think my advice would just not to get involved in a bidding war that goes over asking. There are options now, getting a place at asking (or even below) is possible. Bidding wars are never going to lead to value - a few months ago we might have said you have no choice but to engage in one, now there's a lot of choice.

Dante

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832239#Comment_119832239

Seems like it, its mainly around Malahide in the 400-600k mark.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832242#Comment_119832242

Focusing on ‘value’ as being relative to asking price is very odd.

We bought our place at €50k under asking. We missed out on a place that ultimately went €300k over asking. The one that went €300k over asking, in hindsight, was probably better value.

Asking prices are largely a complete nonsense.

Morzadec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832271#Comment_119832271

True, asking prices can be arbitrary but are usually a decent enough guide. And the places I saw going considerably over asking were ones that seemed poor value. A 2 bed mid-terrace around 70m2 that went for 440k, listed at 360k for example. On the other hand saw one listed at 330k that went for 380k and I think the buyers got a fair price there. I agree with you that it's not always going to correspond but it will usually be a decent guide. I'd say the exact example you mention is rare enough. But definitely any buyer should assess if they feel the asking price seems reasonable to begin with, relative to other properties they've viewed. I'd actually advise the poster I initially responded to to go view as many properties as possible for this reason (even ones you think you won't be too keen on, or that might be a bit beyond your budget), as you should be able to gauge it better having seen more properties.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832196#Comment_119832196

Novartis are cutting jobs in their Dublin 4 office, Regeneron just hadvea corporate office in Dublin city, Pfizer, GSK and BMS are out at the edge of the countryside in West Dublin, not Dublin city. I was specifically referring to Dublin city, around where the large offices would be in Dublin 2, a bit of Dublin 1 and Dublin 4.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832242#Comment_119832242

You also have to factor in that you have probably fixed now at sub 2.5% for five years. If in a year or 18 months time you take out a five year fixed you will probably pay 1% more for it. On 400k that is about 4k per year or 20k over the term of the fixed period. That is near 5% of the value of the house.

If you are renting at present you would need prices to drop 7-10% every 12 months( over the next 2 years anyway) to break even in the present environment. And that is to break it even. To make it worth your while you would need another 4-5% on top of that. Will houses drop 20-25%+ in the next couple of year's,???

GoldFour4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832413#Comment_119832413

Pfizer have a large office in Ringsend.