Softening house market?

getoutadodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119856161#Comment_119856161

I think you'll find that the post WW2 social contract is broken pretty much everywhere. It died in 2008. Check out the situation in Portugal from this article. They have the same uni party as here masquerading as choice. There's little by the way of livable property below 300k in Lisbon or Madrid where the average Joe is lucky to pull in 14K net per annum. Do the maths on multiples. Zero chance. Same applies in Sydney, Melbourne, Paris or Toronto etc . Meanwhile there's six Trillion in funny money being shuffled around the Docklands waiting to blow like a neuton bomb. At the start of the GFC Ireland had 70 B in debt...now supposedly tipping at 250B. Who knows the true figure? Where did the extra 180 B go?

https://medium.com/the-portuguese/the-portuguese-can-no-longer-afford-to-live-in-portugal-or-even-survive-eaa8fdffc4b9

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860582#Comment_119860582

I suspect that the only "reset" that the powers that be have in mind is the "eat zee bugz" type. That aside, I fully agree with what you are saying, and that was my point when I replied to the earlier poster. The choice seems to be either that things carry on as they are, in which case things will become ever more unaffordable or we get a crash and we start over. Either way, it's not exactly sunshine and roses...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860604#Comment_119860604

500k for an apartment in Lisbon! That genuinely did surprise me.

kevthegaff

Looked at myhome last week and there was 597 houses for sale in my county, looked again today 652. I wonder are landlords starting to move...

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852231#Comment_119852231

The UK is no more a “ failed state “ than Ireland or France is , it’s an extremely well functioning state and society

littlevillage

There was some discussion earlier in the thread about the CBI (effectively an arm of Government) loosening the lending rules.... as I see it this was for a number of reasons

- People up and down the country have plenty of savings (after the pandemic) and are well able to buy houses (if there were any available to buy).

- The Government wants its share (stamp duty etc.) of that money soo needed to incentivise the builders to build more (some) houses by bumping up the selling prices of houses

- The government had the ideal 'cover' for all of this by reasoning that people would be better off buying than renting.

This is the exact nonsense that was going on back in the Celtic Tiger times.... the only difference now is that the banks aren't lending the big money to builders, soo they are not building "ghost" estates in BallyGoBackwards. We will have a recession but no great house price collapse.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860454#Comment_119860454

I get it too. Property prices especially in Dublin are eye-watering.

But 2008 is not going to happen. The same conditions don't exist. I was talking to a colleague who was giving out at having to pay a deposit, and a second loan to furnish the house. In his home country, he would get a 120% mortgage. It makes me somewhat grateful that we have a x3.5 and 10% minimum here.

I'm in that mid-30's age bracket where people are buying houses, getting married and having kids, and all my friends are in the process. There is too much money in people's pockets, and too little supply. End of story. A few % of inflation, or a relative handful of job losses in a booming tech sector won't change this.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860643#Comment_119860643

Lets hope and pray its not an "eat zee bugz" global reset, it certainly would make you question it though. If I was to put my mad hat on, there is certainly a agricultural land grab world wide at the minute and I'm not sure its all to do with the control of food. The control of food is a factor but I honestly believe that carbon or CO2 will become a traded commodity down the line as companies go towards net zero. Land mass and seas are the largest sequester of carbon in the world, and in fact the bogland is the best at carbon storage. I think invested interests want to kill the off the non intensive farming in these regions to eventually farmers will sell up and land will be bought for penny's when in fact if the value of carbon was added to the land it would be a hell of a lot more. Anyone wondering if I am crazy, look at the EU Bio-diversity 2030 directive, it involves setting legally binding targets in terms or re wetting reclaimed land going back 70 years. They want this land to soak the carbon emitted by the major multinational companies of the world.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860582#Comment_119860582

There definitely will be no loosening of interest rates the US which is ahead of Europe with regards to QT are by all measures starting to turn a corner and this was only possible by increasing rates so Europe for the next 12 - 24 will have to higher interest rates. They may start coming down or stalling after that who knows. As I have pointed out to you repeatedly the reason why we have such high inflation is in a big part due to the longevity of low interest rates and returning to that scenario is like trying to fight a fire by throwing petrol on it. It wont work and the ECB cannot be seen to deviate from there main objectivity of keeping inflation at around 2%.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860677#Comment_119860677

Nah, the problem in the tiger was that people up and down the country did not have plenty of savings, it was the exact opposite. Everything was being bought on credit with no savings to back it up. Many people were only able to buy because the banks were throwing money at them.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860896#Comment_119860896

I find the way people claim the banks threw money at customers very odd. You didn't have to take it and you actually had to agree to taking a loan out. There were lots of foolish people who took out equity out of their properties to buy cars and TVs. They were to blame for their own circumstances not the banks. On my road during the tiger times every 2nd house had a 4x4 at least. All bought on credit or equity release. The blame on the banks is way overblown personal responsibility for your own loans you took out.

Never have I ever not paid off my credit card each month. Stunned me to hear people talking about huge credit card bills as if it was normal. People on good wages spending way above their means along with people on low wages doing the same. It always seemed to be people who grew up with things being on credit and thinking that is normal life.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861017#Comment_119861017

The banks absolutely did throw money at people. They would phone people up asking if they needed credit!

Yes, people had to accept it, yes it's their own fault for being foolish, but the banks were not blame free. Not everyone is great with money, when the bank is ringing these people up offering to lend them for a brand new car this was irresponsible. Offering people 100+% mortgages so they could buy a new motor or kit the garden out at the same time was irresponsible.

It does not negate the point being made that back then houses were being bought with no savings at all.

Whether the end result of a downturn on the housing market today is the same as 2008 remains to be seen, but the underlying situation in the housing market could barely be any different. It is chalk and cheese.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861028#Comment_119861028

The banks give you all the warnings about every loan you take. You as an individual are responsible for your own decisions. If you are bad with money then you are bad at being a grown up. One thing to not earn very much but another to buy what you can't afford on a good wage. How many business offer to sell you something in your life? Do you accept all their offers? No different to when the bank asks you do you want to buy a loan. YOU SAY NO. If you say yes then you are responsible completely. People made the decision to borrow the same way the bought something they couldn't afford.

There are a lot of people blaming the banks as if they tricked people. They tell you everything when you take out a loan. People acted foolishly themselves. I got the mailers about loans and I think one teller mentioned loans to me directly. I just didn't take up the offer. Nobody forced them they made a decision and many didn't think about.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861099#Comment_119861099

There was a climate or a culture of borrowing to the excess. This was heavily promoted by the banks on all media.

I get that people should have full awareness of their own situation, but you can't blame people 100% for getting carried away by the fever. Remember the loan ads that were run in the mid 2000s?

Need a place to get laid? Buy a house! (100% mortgages from Bank of Ireland)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_URy6gEijg

alwald

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861099#Comment_119861099

Consumer protection wasn't as big and as well regulated as it is now. The 08 crash resulted in a lot of regulations being put in place, including all the warnings you are referring to.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860730#Comment_119860730

I'm in the same age-bracket. Many of my cousins / friends / colleagues are trying to settle down. Some of them have, but others have not. I actually have two friends who are single again because their long-term relationship fell apart. Both of them have told me that an inability to find accommodation was a major factor.

Honestly, it does sometimes feel like we're a cursed generation. Speaking for myself, I graduated in 2010 and spend five years doing crumby jobs. I didn't get to earn good money until I was nearly 30. I happen to not want a family, but if I did, it wouldn't really be an option. How many people of our age have put their lives on hold (again)?

Anyways, there's little that we can do about it. The state and the older generations don't seem to care as long as their pensions are paid...

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861573#Comment_119861573

What is it that you think the state should do to help you? Other than say, affordable homes, help to buy, local authority home loans etc that allow people who would otherwise not be able to buy.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861730#Comment_119861730

I don't want anything from the state whatsoever. What I would like is to see the state stay out of the market, and cease its tinkering. It is relying on the state as if its some sort of parent that has lead us to where we are now.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861771#Comment_119861771

Well, I would agree with that. I don't think the state should be subsidising the accumulation of assets.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861537#Comment_119861537

Really can you point to the changes? I remember all the warnings before you claim they existed and I don't know of what was introduced about signing a loan like you say. Are you talking about some slight changes to advertisement and promotions?that customer protection was

Not sure why you think customer protection was so lax. What I do remember is the amount of people lying on their applications for mortgages

alwald

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861945#Comment_119861945

I never said they didn't exist nor did I say they were lax. I said that regulators started to focus more on them since 08 and as a result they are greatly enhanced now than ever before.

Quick Google will give you a full list, not only regarding banks and loans but also insurance, pension, investments...

Dr Turk Turkelton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861771#Comment_119861771

If the state was to stop tinkering in the market would it not be up to the banks to decide themselves how many times salary to loan ratio is applied?

For instance if they had a guy who was a sure fire bet to be an earner for his working life they could give him ten times salary?

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861573#Comment_119861573

The self pity of your generation is overdone and driven by media and other interested political parties and the like trying to profit from it. Look to the generations before you that were sent to world wars, my parents bought in the seventies and they hadn't a penny, it was a big deal to have central heating and an indoor toilet . I bought in the Celtic tiger, house value fell to half and nobody gave a sh1t. Stuck in negative equity and still below the price I paid for it in 2006. Only through hard work, sacrifice and effort I managed to build another house in 2013. People now want all the bells and whistles but don't want to pay for it. Fur coat and no knickers mentality.

Beigepaint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119863273#Comment_119863273

More illiterate avacado toast nonsense.

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119864044#Comment_119864044

More excuses. Plenty value out there. I see plenty houses in cork and limerick cities for under 250k.

igord

One thing I see happening first hand is people strongly considering moving out of Ireland and cashing in on their properties they bought in last 5-10 years. With today's prices they are in s good position to close the mortgage and have a small profit. Also with redundancies looming across the tech sector double cash injection is looking as an opportunity to them. Don’t know if the numbers are high enough to reverse property prices but in my circle there is a good amount that are considering the option.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119863273#Comment_119863273

While I won't overly disagree and there is some of that going on but for the most part it's not. We have successful people earning good wages and are priced out of the market. A gard and a nurse back in the seventies would have been blue chip jobs and would have guaranteed that household a modest living. That couple now especially if the are living in Dublin wouldn't have a pot to piss in. The would have realistically a very low probability of saving a deposit in their 20s as their wages would not be high enough until the incremental yearly increases get you to a higher wage in your early 30s. I feel sorry for these people.

Do I feel sorry for someone in a great high paying job and during their 20s the pissed alot of money away travelling here there and everywhere for istaworthy photos and in return have no saving for deposit and because of this excess lifestyle they are accostomed too their become incapable of saving, absolutely not.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119862843#Comment_119862843

The banks have shown themselves to completely incapable of self regulation last time. That is the reason for the LTI restrictions. I don't think anyone wants a completely unregulated market. The banks should have to meet capital requirements etc. The houses/apartments need to be built to a certain standard.

All that is completely different to giving FTB 30k towards a property purchase, or allowing special chosen ones to purchase properties at below market value subsidised by the state.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119864316#Comment_119864316

With the exception of Facebook (meta shambles) Twitter (Musk shambles) and Stripe (expansion shambles), there have not been many rumblings of job losses. I would say a lot of it is fearmongering.

I would only be worried if we start seeing previously profitable tech companies shedding long time staff and blaming the economy.

The Spider

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119864722#Comment_119864722

Well there are a few others in fairness, the likes of zen desk and sales force, although personally I see this as bandwagon jumping, bigger concern is companies trying to roll back remote working, as that was giving a release valve to the Dublin property market, if these guys start looking for people to come back in there’ll be big trouble.

I know a few people in Twitter and they were essentially told they could work from home forever before the whole Musk scenario, now some of them are ok because they’re earning really good money and are in commuter towns or suburbs of Dublin their other halves don’t work, so they can readjust. But there’s a whole other cohort who moved out of Dublin to Sligo, Galway, Cork etc, they’re on ok wages, their other halves work, but on the back of being told they can work from home forever, they cancelled child care etc, so their kids come home from school around 4, do their own thing while they’re working, and obviously they drop them to school.

Now Musk has demanded people back in the office its untenable for those people even if they managed to commute, gong that distance 5 days a week will cost you around 360 a week in petrol, let alone time away from family, I’m going to assume the food is still free in the office so they don’t have to pay for that, childcare if they could somehow get it would be around another 3-400 a week depending on how many kids ages etc.

so that’s an extra 3 grand a month for the pleasure of working in Twitter, I don’t need to tell you that these guys are seeing solicitors in terms of whether what Musk is doing is legal because there’s no way they can do it

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119864890#Comment_119864890

Musk can say what he wants about US employees, there's a world of difference between US labour laws and ours.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out and whether other companies jump on this bandwagon as well!