Softening house market?

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119080190#Comment_119080190

I don't expect anyone is taking what I say on here as any sort of indicator for market sentiment, in the same way that random people on Facebook are not an indicator of anything.

As for the sell and re-buy comment, I think you're mixing up investing in property with the stock market.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119079159#Comment_119079159

A lot of those houses and prices are people chancing their arms and seeing if anyone bites. It seems at the higher end of the market, people are a little more discerning with what prices they pay, in general. But again it depends.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119080146#Comment_119080146

In fairness, with the record levels of rentals available, it's happening. Lots of small-time property investors are getting out of the game, and now is a good time to be doing it to be fair to them.

Nero2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119080215#Comment_119080215

I take the constant, "prices go down because, supply" as just another indicator they will go down.

So many clueless\uninformed people putting their opinions out there. Makes me laugh.

Xidu

My colleague is biding on a house in Cork city ask price 275k now 7 bidders brought it up to 360k. Crazy

Mad_maxx

i see zero evidence of a softening market , an uncle of mine is sale agreed on a house in Beaumont Dublin 9 and I myself am trying to buy another house in Limerick city , market is red hot , I also went sale agreed on a house outside Newbridge in the past three weeks

Gusser09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081746#Comment_119081746

Wait until hiked interest rates kick in. Things will slow. Not crash but slow.

DaSchmo

The market will probably continue to be hot right up to when the interest rate rise(s) kick in, if anything this will throw more fuel on the fire in the short term as people try to close deals with whatever they are approved for in advance of borrowing conditions changing. As much as it is futile to accurately predict what will happen, it is very likely that this will cause the market to turn as interest rates will be rising for some time - and therefore what people could potentially borrow will be going down over time. Interest rates are deeply negative compared to inflation and inflation looks like it's here to stay until interest rates rise to kill it off. This goes for almost every housing market globally. Look at the US and Canada - where they have started to raise already and the market has started to soften.

Mad_maxx

so little available out there , people will buy what they can

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081792#Comment_119081792

Everyone is thinking like you, that's the problem.

Price essentially does not matter a jot at the moment. But why would price/value ever not be important?

Murph85

There is nowhere near enough supply and the irish government wont touch with a barge pole, anything that would improve the situation, proper vacant property tax, proper rate of lpt, not the current farce/ token gesture. Curbing immigration... these solutions would be deemed radical beyond belief in this corrupt inept banana republic

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081812#Comment_119081812

because

1. renting is much more expensive and there are no rentals available
2. the economy is strong and there is plenty of money around

HerrKapitan

Interest rates will go up for a long time. Its all part of The Great Reset.

Anyone currently buying but not tied into a house purchase should cancel the purchase as soon as possible and not get tied down to huge debt. Its designed that way. You will own nothing.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081852#Comment_119081852

Renting is much more expensive. That gap is going to close with rising interest rates.

Economy with 8%+ inflation is not in a position of strength. A recession is coming.

landofthetree

Australia is set to go bang?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10828173/One-Australias-largest-home-builders-Metricon-battling-cashflow-crisis.html

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081964#Comment_119081964

ah shur thats been coming for a while now, with successive governments continually facilitating a credit boom....

Mad_maxx

Australia and NZ have been in a property bubble for a decade , house prices there are far higher than here , no real message to be drawn

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081812#Comment_119081812

Price is always important. It has never not been important. Buying what you can afford, even with interest rate increases is important, and this is exactly what the lending rules have enforced.

Value is subjective. What some on here continually struggle to grasp is that value is not a purely financial concept.

Murph85

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dublin-in-top-10-least-financially-viable-cities-worldwide-report-1306836.html

what a surprise!

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081928#Comment_119081928

I think from your position you may not be fully understanding the POV of renters right now, not only is it double the price of a mortgage, there's virtually zero supply. This makes it incredibly insecure, if your lease was to end (landlord sells or whatever), it is very difficult to find a new lease. People want out of that market and lifestyle.

Nero2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081979#Comment_119081979

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082025#Comment_119082025

While it is true that Australia is in a bigger bubble and due bigger drops....it really doesnt change the fact that we will also see big drops. Yes we might not see as big drops but comments like this make me think this forum has been infiltrated.

I guarantee this time next year, prices will be done. How much down?, hard to know. There is no free market anymore, it depends on the government. But I would expect AT LEAST 20 percent.

utmbuilder

As soon as authority's stop buying, private buyers still need a decade of supply. Ukrainians will be the new Europeans work hard and get mortgages great for the country tax wise but they will want to buy a home too

stock markets tanking, house prices will be next albeit alot slower

you2008

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119083534#Comment_119083534

Its just the beginning .......

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082826#Comment_119082826

...the reality is, we ve been trying a major global experiment for decades now, and it has catastrophically failed, virtually everywhere its been tried, we have to accept this failure, and do something about it fast, or else.....

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081886#Comment_119081886

More chance of you owning something if you buy then rent cheaper too and with the current option to get a low interest rate fixed for 5 years + you can set your future expenditure on a mortgage so you know what way your finances are for the short to medium trem also if the sh1t hits the fan with a colossal recession and you lose your job Ireland Inc does not do family home repossessions so your quids in. You need to be careful with your advice.

lomb

If interest rates hit 5.5 or 6% which they likely will the market is going to CRASH

Anyone who can fix should fix now for 10 years with a plan to aggressive savings in the interim to repay upto 5 more years of capital at the end of that 10 reducing the mortgage to the balance of 25% of the original (or invest it )depending on prevailing conditions at the time.

I still think its safeish if you can service the loan to buy cheaper property, but the business of handing over half a million+for a 2 or 3 bed in Inchicore, Harolds X etc is crazy. I think Vradkars place is 800k which if you look at it for a cottage with no front garden is lunacy. Its a max 450k property when the crap hits the fan.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082826#Comment_119082826

Not sure I agree Australia and Ireland's property market have not mirrored each other over the last 2 decades so there is no correlation there. IMO there will be a point where prices get too high and add in interest rates getting too high and the cost will factor in more than the current supply issue. Having said that for the next 3/6 months people will be trying to buy in order to get in before interest rates rise, then I can see a 2 year period where we will have prices rising a lot slower and shallower than the last 2 years due to people chasing and thinking if I get a mortgage now my interest rate will be x% less than this time next year as interest rates rise. I can see property prices stalling in about 2 years time. In that time I reckon the green energy shift will have Europe a lot less exposed to exported oil and gas from external supliers meaning costs of building will come down and if Ukraine/Russia end the war it will also help with this regards as well as to over all costs of every day living. So I am calling it a further 3/6 months of higher price increases and then 2 years of more modest increases then prices will flat line for a year and give it another year and I reckon a 5/15% drop as a recession kicks in and then that price going forward will be the new base line. I could be wrong and please I wouldnt buy or sell a house on my theory or any one elses on this site.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084037#Comment_119084037

central banks would be well stupid to do such as thing, as most debts, in both the public and private domains, would probably become unserviceable, leading to a catastrophic economic collapse, i.e. this is very unlikely to occur, we re likely stuck with relatively low rates indefinitely, due to this accumulation of debts

Pussyhands

For anyone saying the stock market is not related to the housing market.

You surely have to accept the housing market is related to the economy?

Yesterday retail giants in America reported earnings. They were bad. The whole market saw it and they all tanked because they know what's coming economically.

Why would Apple or Microsoft tank 25% from their highs if things were going to continue, with everyone buying iPhones and companies buying services from Microsoft?

In september 2008 the government acknowledged we entered a recession but the signs were already there. The ISEQ tanked in 2007 to a 14 year low. Stock markets are liquid so they're forward thinking.

It's worth noting that from April 09 - April 2010 about 75% of those who emigrated were non Irish nationals. We have a LOT more non Irish nationals living and working here now so if there are job losses, then we have a large pool of foreigners who could leave.