Softening house market?

Gusser09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040076#Comment_119040076

If yuo are employed and onb over 40k a year SF consider you well off. In saying that FFG have directly contributed to generation rent and removed done nothing to give young workers the chance to own a property. So it might be time to try something different.

o1s1n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039903#Comment_119039903

The arse didn't immediately fall out, it was a gradual drop in prices till 2012. I was trying to buy a house at the time and kept waiting it out as I could see prices continue to drop year on year and wanted to wait for the absolute bottom. Missed out on it by a year unfortunately! Bought in 2013 when prices had started increasing again.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040086#Comment_119040086

Again. I never mentioned prices. Don't be focused solely on prices. The arse fell out of the market. If you want to focus on prices, consider than many people were recent buyers using 100% mortgages. Government policy, and reluctance of banks to crystalize losses, prevented a rapid realisation of reality.

The reason prices did continue to fall was that very few wanted to buy at that stage. Commercial transactions were faster to be realised. I had a distant relation that sold property for a couple of million who was offered it back by Nama for less than 10% of what he received for it. Unfortunately he didn't have the money to buy it back but those stories are not uncommon. I'm aware of another man who sold land for development at the height. Bought it back for a fraction, then sold it again a couple of years ago. Not a property developer - just a farmer who got lucky with rezoning, then had the cash to buy it back, then got offered money he couldn't refuse to sell it again!

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040100#Comment_119040100

What can they do we are seriously constraint in all avenues we could of gone down before.

Already 250Billion in debt - this will cost more as interest rates go up taking more out of yearly tax take

Already PS and welfare are looking for more to cover off the price of inflation

The question also has to be asked when does the supposed temporary tax of USC get taken away from weighing down the middle income earners.

So what options have SF got - Tax the rich cant see how they will get much from that but I guess its worth a go

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039976#Comment_119039976

there were different time lines inside Dublin and the rest of the country

Dublin topped out in spring 2007 after a relatively short final sharp shoot to the top , for example spring 2007 was considerably higher than spring 2006 but by spring 2008 . prices were lower than spring 2006 , by mid 2009 , prices were 40% below the spring 2007 peak , between then and spring 2012 , the market dropped a further 20% in Dublin for a total of 58% from peak to trough for houses and 62% for apartments , the market might not have rose a huge amount in 2012 in Dublin but it was higher in December than in January , 2013 saw it increase by about 15 % and 2014 saw at least a 20% increase in prices

the top was not reached outside Dublin until early 2008 in some cases , the bottom arrived in Galway and Cork city in 2013 ,a year after Dublin , the commuter belt arrived around the same time though Meath was a lot later getting off the floor than Wicklow or Kildare , Limerick city was incredibly late getting off the floor , the market did not start to rise again until late 2014 and was still barely moving as late as 2017 , it then rose extremely strong every year since , at one point Limerick city was 40% cheaper than Galway city

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040122#Comment_119040122

Maybe people will look back and wonder why we all got so worked up about the great soft landing of 2008 - 2012

Ajai Chopra and the boys just making up excuses to come over for a few pints of Guinness.

Gusser09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040128#Comment_119040128

Not sure what can be done. I'd love to see rather than cut in income tax in the future is a cut in the USC.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040100#Comment_119040100

the problem is multi faceted and nothing to do with any vast conspiracy to enrich property owners , our government are not near competent enough to manage that and besides they prioritise the opinion of the left wing media far too much to attempt it

the core of our problem is we are an extremely open economy and this model is what has allowed us to become much wealthier but like countries like Singapore which are also very open , it results in a big competition for housing where employment centres are , add to that we have both an extremely rigid planning system and an extremely clientelist electoral system , PR means that if one TD in a constituency opposes a development , deputies in the same constituency feel under pressure to do the same for fear of loosing their seat , multi seat constituencies are a curse in this regard , Nimbyism is also entertained and indulged to a huge degree

unfortunately the political class seem unable or unwilling to have a conversation with the population about the consequences of our economic model which encourages large scale immigration , the topic of immigration in any context other than glowing eulogies is heresy in the irish media , I have nothing against software developers from Spain or India but an extremely open economy with a very large multinational base is going to mean very high demand for housing and neither our planning laws or political system is able to keep up with demand for accommodation , there is no conspiracy to enrich landlords etc , there is however a huge reluctance to examine what we have chosen to do , in many ways we are victims of our own success so perhaps we dont want wealth anymore and SF engaging in a bit of wealth destruction might be a good thing if software developers stop coming to Dublin or Google and FB also decide to stop investing , they werent there thirty years ago and houses were affordable

o1s1n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040142#Comment_119040142

Is there a space between 'soft landing' and 'arse falling out' or does everything have to be hyperbolic?

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040199#Comment_119040199

We would have affordable houses and large scale emigration if the situation was like 30 years ago. I don't think it was any different then really, just the people who were able to buy were ones working for the state or some other solid jobs. Lots of people emigrated in the 80s and even into the 90s, they certainly were not able to afford to buy a house.

SuperBowserWorld

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040205#Comment_119040205

Drama Driven Development

Humans are suckers for Drama.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040205#Comment_119040205

The arse fell out of the market in 2008 dude.

It didn't recover or function for a few years. Due to it not functioning, prices continued to fall. when the situation improved and some confidence re-entered, the prices started to rise again.

But he arse did fall out of the market in 2008.

BailMeOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040128#Comment_119040128

Money has nothing to do with the lack of houses being built in Ireland. There is plenty of money available and anyone buying is using their own money via a mortgage. The reason we have a housing issue and why supply is low right now has to do with 1. planning and 2. available workforce to build these houses. There is a huge demand and the market wants to fill that gap but it has just been too difficult to build due to this bs.

I bet that many rushing to buy now at inflated prices will be underwater in a few years as the supply eventually starts to catch up and as many new planning rules start to come into effect. When you drive in and out of any town in Ireland right now you are seeing homes being built absolutely everywhere with 35,000 being built (not enough I know) in 2022 as we need to ramp up to 50k new homes per year for the coming years. I believe this will happen even with bs planning and objection issues however it is happing too slowly for many, unfortunately. What we do know is that once supply catches up then prices will drop as there will be proper competition in the market. I bought in late 2019 but if I hadn't and was still on the market now for a home would probably try to hold out for another 12-24 months. A hard decision I know as we all want the security of a home we can call our own.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040550#Comment_119040550

Of course money has lots to with it and more importantly the money that our government spend. They stopped building social housing over the last decade and in that time frame our population grew by half a million people. They expected the private sector would sort the social housing need that can be seen by scheme after scheme for rent HAP etc. Now when you say 35k houses being built , that is a projection which they have come short of reaching over the last number of years and the amount for sale to the general public is cut to a third of what is built when REITS, Vultures and Social housing needs are addressed.

Calculator123

Unusual choice of words from an Estate Agents in a local news magazine today...

BailMeOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040599#Comment_119040599

Money is not the issue. The government can get as much as they want to build whatever they want and the same is true for well set up and organized developers. (there are at least two raising money on the Irish stock exchange to do just this).

At the current rate, 2022 will see a minimum of 24,000 completed new homes and 10,000+ more in progress or starting.

Again as I said this is not enough and we need 50,000 new completed homes a year to keep up with population growth and people moving here. The biggest hurdle for these is from people who already have homes and who are objecting to all planned development near them. The second biggest issue are developers finding skilled labour to build them.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041247#Comment_119041247

Of course money is the biggest issue the government have 3 ways of getting money and your talking billions (money so it does actually matter unless you think we have a magic money tree out the back) a year over maybe 2 decades to catch up and keep up with the emigration inward numbers. So money does matter as you will be robbing Peter to pay Paul

Three ways for the government to finance what you want.

Cutting services - they have already been cut to shreds and are already p1ss poor for the amount of taxes paid.

More taxes - Income tax is already one of the most progressive regimes in the world. Maybe a different tax??

More borrowing - With rising interest rates we will be paying billions just on the interest of our existing 250Billion borrowing. We cannot continue to borrow on the never never for every 1% we go up in interest rates that 2.5 Billion less we have to spend or find in addtional taxation and already a lot of experts are expecting us to be up at near 2% by the end of next year so either we stop or it will be our kids and grand kids paying and considering they will already find it near to impossible to buy a house and will be asked to retire at 70 I dont think its fair we kick this can continuously down the road.

Planning and skilled labour shortages are a problem but the biggest issue has been the fact that the government have not had the money to build social housing over the last decade and a half as we have been running an annual deficit of what we take in with taxes versus what we pay out and the difference has been borrowed social housing was cut out of government spending and now the deficit of social housing is being met by government competing in both the rental and buying of property with the bog standard punter trying to buy or rent a 3 bed semi d in a burb somewhere.

It is deeply concerning, though not surprising, to see people attempting to downplay the severity of the last financial crisis.

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040086#Comment_119040086

i think you might be confusing what the bottom dropping out of the market means

it means sales dropped off a cliff, this is accurate

not that prices did

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041372#Comment_119041372

Yet there were still sales going on the banks stopped lending at the time it didnt mean people did not want to buy it just meant the access to finance dried up and all I said was that it took 4 years for prices to hit the bottom

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041335#Comment_119041335

do you think the government would be providing the shortfall in housing numbers for free? All social housing? The biggest demand is with working people

Same with property developers, they are quite happy that house prices are going up and they are building house that have already been paid for, this is the reason they arent building enough houses for the demand

2008 was a disaster, they lost control, the last 15 years has been about turning that around

feelings

"No big drop, but the day of excessive pricing is all but gone."

Don't know how you've come to that conclusion. I am keeping an eye out around my area and most are still going 10+% above original asking price.

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041382#Comment_119041382

no you were disagreeing that the market didn't turn very quickly in 2008, it did

prices also dropped fairly quickly, 25% drops in 2008 and 2009 from 10%-20% increases in 2005 2006

people always want to buy, they couldn't it doesn't matter why

you are just plain wrong

BailMeOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041335#Comment_119041335

The government's role in financing new homes is just for social housing. The main and majority requirement for homes are homes being purchased by people who finance themselves via a mortgage so just short-term money is needed to finance the build until they are sold.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041455#Comment_119041455

It didnt turn quickly and your wrong with your %

2008 9.1% drop

2009 18.9% drop

2010 10.8% drop

2011 17.4% drop

2012 4.5% drop

So they did not drop quickly at all. It didn't turn as quickly as you or the other poster is making out - Property prices react slowly to everything and there were lots of gobsh1ts still thinking they couldnt go wrong with buying back in late 2008 and early 2009 then you had some thinking the drops had stopped at the end of 2010 and turning into 2011 and buying thinking that prices will rocket back up. As I say the house prices stats are there to back it up

https://www.moneyguideireland.com/house-price-changes-in-ireland-a-history.html

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041410#Comment_119041410

Well historically government built social housing for those who could not afford to buy that stopped over the last decade and a half after 08 and things like HAP, Help to buy, FTB and affordable housing schemes were all brought to bear in order to rectify this mistake. Add in the county council rental schemes of 20/25 years of guaranteed rents for peoples rentals you can see that they have been scrambling for years to rectify the deficit in social housing

9.1% isn't a quick drop?

🤔

Tombo2001

Lads to be fair ye are both right, things turned quite sharply in 2007 but people were saying for the first 18 months about soft landing, demographics, it'll be grand.

The term 'froze' is an apt description of activity and volumes in the market, transactions fell from 100'000 a year down to 20'000 a year and the drop in monthly volumes was quite rapid. House prices took longer to drop, partly because trade prices reflect what was happening 4-6 months ago as thats how long it can take to close.

And then related to activity above = heaps of sellers were saying "this will bounce back, I am going to wait", in their head the house was worth what it was selling for 9 months previous. Then when they all decided 18 months later that it wasnt going to happen, many of them panicked and thats when the forced selling starts.

One point on this though = anyone whoever thinks that they 'played the housing market' well is usually a pratt, its complete pot luck as to whether you are looking to buy at the point where the market is bottoming out.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041641#Comment_119041641

No over the 12 Month period of 2007 and when the full amount of the price drop was anywhere between 50 to 80% over 4 years.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041647#Comment_119041647

This thread is an absolute classic, great for understanding the Zeitgeist in 2006 https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2055033806/housing-bubble-bursting/p1

Morgan Kelly published an article in 2006 which frightened the crap out of people (and turned out to be very accurate).