Softening house market?

wassie

Yes - but nothing makes a great twitter headline like "house prices now crashing".

Looking at it in historical context prices went completely bonkers since the pandemic, and Sydney, Melbourne & Auckland in particular needed to fall by roughly 30% simply to return to pre-covid levels. Not saying they aren't over valued either, just that the high prices were never sustainable.

Also when comparing to the Irish market its worth noting new mortage holders there are more susceptable to interest raterises as they are more leveraged, compred to here where we have LTIs of 3.5x

In Auckland over 50% of new mortgages had an LTI of over 6x, while in Aus it is just under 25%.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334945#Comment_119334945

The bottom hasn't been reached yet. Prices can go down quicker than they go up.

Even if house prices are not directly impacted in Ireland, the dropping of prices in the US, Canada, NZ will impact us indirectly because people will choose to move to lower cost of living than here.

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119332716#Comment_119332716

would you stretch the graph out across say 5 years? might make some sense then

rob316

I was looking at a few online auctions and I saw a number of bidders actually starting with bids under the asking. I haven't seen that in a good while.

Donald Trump

I don't really following the housing market closely. However I always keep an eye on land for sale.

I noticed something today which caught my eye. Loads of estate agents, all around the country are changing their listings to say "Price X or rent negotiable".

https://www.daft.ie/commercial-properties-for-sale/ireland/agricultural-land

I wonder did daft change their template settings or something? I saw a few earlier in the week to now it appears that all that are being updated are now saying that. Might it just be an error with the site? Or are people thinking they might not get asking? Land appears to be flying though at the minute. Maybe it means lads are half thinking of hanging onto it in case it keeps increasing?

Edit: Must have been a bug on the site. It has been removed now for most listings.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334945#Comment_119334945

Yes, all valid points.

However, as you said, since the pandemic house prices have boomed in those markets, as they have here, so perhaps that is a precursor of what is to come in the Irish market in the next 12-18 months. People forget that house prices in Ireland fell in 2019 and there was no recession then.

Many economists now think that a global recession is a given over the next year and who knows what effect that will have here.

redsheeps

The first graph below is based on data from all 5,229 property price changes on MyHome beginning on 15th July 2021 and ending on 14th July 2022. Note that both July 2021 and July 2022 do not contain full month data but I have turned this data into a percentage in an effort to capture the ratio of changes.

The second graph below shows the actual numbers of price changes from August 2021 to June 2022. I excluded the July 2021 and July 2022 data from this graph because I do not have the data for these 'full' months.

Interpret the data as you like.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119337850#Comment_119337850

Excellent work, really shows the number of price changes downward, gives a clear indication we have peaked and are going to start rolling down the hill.

Donald Trump

Stripe cut their internal valuation by $21 billion.

https://www.independent.ie/business/stripe-reportedly-cuts-valuation-amid-tech-share-crash-41840832.html

And no, I did not post that on the wrong forum by mistake. If the tech sector takes a hammering, that is going to have a direct impact on property prices in Dublin. Which will have knock on effects across the country.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338221#Comment_119338221

21 billion that's some devaluation....holy ****

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338651#Comment_119338651

Well it's 28%. Same article quotes Paypal as being down something like 60%. Any growth firm is going to get hit very bad by rising rates. People are starting to think the Fed might put its base rates up 100bps later in the month. 75bps were expected before this but now some are thinking it might even be 100.

gypsy79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338157#Comment_119338157

Sorry but no it doesnt... it shows that starting prices were over optimistic

I bought Jan this year and houses in not as good condition are going for 25k more than i bought

House price is based mostly on wage inflation rather than actual inflation

DFB-D

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338709#Comment_119338709

I'd have to disagree, I would say house prices are influenced by developers and Fianna Fail (who don't take cash bribes anymore, bank transfer to family members cayman accounts only please 😜)

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119324214#Comment_119324214

No change after another week. I have noticed that the amount coming on daily in Dublin is still reasonably high, so that means that there are now at lot of places going SA. I would have thought we were entering summer season now and not much activity but it still appears to be going strong.

redsheeps

The first graph below shows the total number of properties (excluding sites) on Daft since 30th June. The second graph shows the change (increase/decrease) in number of properties (excluding sites) each day over this same period of time.

Mr Hindley

I've noticed a general pattern that there is a surge of new properties added on a Friday afternoon. Then the number ticks down a bit on Monday (I'm guessing agents tidying their books, dealing with offers from people who had a think over the weekend), then by later in the week it starts to go up again.

I thought the rate of increase in total supply was showing some signs of slowing a little, but it's not clear yet. Total on Daft including sites is now just short of 18,000. In my search area, in south County Dublin, the supply still seems static, so my guess is that in the more popular areas, the new supply is still getting snapped up reasonably quickly, but at the edges of the market, properties are lingering. Even in SCD, I've noticed more re-listings lately of properties that weren't shifting.

theboringfox

Cork market seeing nice increase and bidding seems healthy but less manic. It still only takes two competing bidders to love a house for it to get bid up like mad.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343312#Comment_119343312

Such as this one in Dublin. Up for 450k, sale agreed this week at 710k.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-36-bulfin-road-inchicore-inchicore-dublin-8/3959539

theboringfox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119346730#Comment_119346730

To be fair that house was never truly asking 450k...that is common agent tactic with a done up house to set price low to build up interest and get people into viewings and then a frenzy of bidding. It is big money for terraced house but I imagine the cost of that renovation job has sky rocketed and people bidding know what it would cost to buy doer upper and put the work in....I love how they called out south facing front garden as a feature...

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119346730#Comment_119346730

Honestly will be interesting if the seller actually closes or does a Elon!

pauliebdub

I understand its renovated and looks really well and ready to move into but 710k for a terrace house with 3 small bedrooms is just nuts.

Xidu

No this happens all the time

you2008

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119346730#Comment_119346730

Madness for D8, please kill me 😁

greenfield21

...

greensausage

Its just gone to 18k properties (including sites) for sale on Daft.ie, wonder how long it will take to reach 19k.....

SummerK

Hope increase in supply would soften price increases.

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119349026#Comment_119349026

It's typically been taking 3-4 weeks for the total on Daft to go up by 1,000 - the pace of increase over the last few months is remarkably consistent.

rh5555

A large proportion of economists expect a recession coming pretty soon especially in Europe. Also ECB will raise interest rates (very little) for the first time in a long time which will have an impact on mortgage rates. Considering the mortgage amounts for the very high housing prices are already very high even a small uptick in mortgage rates will have an impact.

Lastly due to the anticipated recessions the majority of tech companies are doing a hiring freeze or have already announced layoffs to be ready if there is a slowdown.

These are the points why there is an increasing supply on sites like daft. However it would be foolish to think it will changes prices dramatically as we all know there is an insane housing shortage for many years now so the limited housing supply will put a floor on how much prices can go down. As most agree this is what we need the most are more houses / apartments etc but we may have to wait for the next government to actually get something going.

Lastly, some people may believe that if there is a recession a percentage of people won't be able to pay their mortgage anymore and foreclose but I strongly believe that homeowners will be bailed out in that situation while if you have cash you may get screwed in some way.

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119349591#Comment_119349591

if there is a recession a percentage of people won't be able to pay their mortgage anymore and foreclose but I strongly believe that homeowners will be bailed out in that situation

Who will bail people out, the government ? LOL

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119349901#Comment_119349901

...if you re a systemically dangerous corporation or financial institution, you re on the pigs back, otherwise, you re probably screwed!