Softening house market?

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119476774#Comment_119476774

yeah I checked the website and google of course for the previous reports, but its hard to correlate without seeing a trend

like here

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/construction-output

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119476542#Comment_119476542

Extension etc never took off this year. A substantial amount got cancelled. As did one off houses after people got the price. Refurbishment of houses stopped as well. This is reflected in the price of houses that need refurbishment that are for sale with little or no interest.

Why would building be cyclical at present with demand.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119476348#Comment_119476348

Any building material that has carbon tax on it will struggle to drop in price. Ready mix concrete has a carbon tax at present of about 30/cubic meter, there is supposed to be another 8-10 going on it shortly. This would be reflected in concrete blocks prices as well

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119471212#Comment_119471212

There are a lot of factors that make this different from the time of the last housing crash. Doesn't mean it will or it won't happen. But the price of building is completely unsustainable. That coupled with affordability rules changes, lack of competition and interest rate rises make buying a house extremely difficult..on the other hand you have a growing population and ever increasing rents pushing things up on the demand side.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119475007#Comment_119475007

The last crash was a financial meltdown and a credit crunch.

This is the key. So many on Boards keep equating a recession = property crash.

Im not advocating for price growth in a recession as there’s no doubt that an economic downturn can have a negative impact on value. But whilst a recession generally results in people losing their jobs, a recession isn’t automatically bad for everybody, and not all recessions are created equal.

We have a serious supply shortage with huge demand such that even if these two factors converged closer together, provided banks are still lending then its quite feasable house prices do not crash as demand will still exceed supply.

If we get a liquidity crisis....then thats a different story. Its going to be an interesting 6-12 months.

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119476943#Comment_119476943

not sure where you are getting that, its been non stop extensions all summer here, easy to spot with the number of blocks getting delivered

maybe different areas cycle through this at different times

no one can move, so its the only option, id reckon about 10% of the houses in the estate added one last year and this has kept going this year

lads working on them have been non stop

the other options is the shomra, this is busy but less popular

similar number of attic conversions

not familiar with one new builds as thats more a country thing at this stage

the cyclical nature of building is what drove everyone into the building of estates etc back in the celtic tiger

its always been like that, no one wants to start a build or a job in winter

theboringfox

Near us in Cori City it was constant building of extensions but not seen anything new start in area with months. But that's only anecdotal and could easily see another surge soon. We have pressed pause on an extension and looking at buying again instead. I do not see any big crash.

houseyhouse

We’re in Galway City and it feels like every second house on my street is having substantial building work done. Certainly almost every house with kids still at home (vs retired folks who occupy the other half of the houses on the street in our 1970s estate). We’re in a pretty desirable location and there are no renovated houses for sale in the area so the choice is either leave the area or stay and improve

manniot2

Was keeping an eye on a house on daft in North Dublin recently. Asking is 750k and needs at least 100k work. Has been on daft a good while so I thought I’d email the EA, maybe things were cooling….

Current highest offer is 850k with counters expected. Slan go foil

Pussyhands

Brent crude oil has fallen 23% since June on recession fears. Just like oil, building materials can do the same if the recession happens.

We also have an extra 40k Ukrainians in the country in the last 5 months or so, which is driving up rental demand which is a factor for house prices also.

Ukrainians won't be leaving though.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119479846#Comment_119479846

They can but as oil drops further the Government will add back in the 20c/ litre it removed last spring.

Some materials may fall in price like timber however energy hungry material like concrete will struggle to drop much in price. There is a virtual 10% increase coming next month by suppliers of concrete and stone products.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119479901#Comment_119479901

Carbon taxes represent a permanent addition to building costs, we may never see cost of concrete drop much in future

mcsean2163

Myhome properties for sale

30 Jan 2022- 10758

Today - 15,247.

Seems to be trending in the right direction?

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494846#Comment_119494846

this is the selling season, it may not account for all the properties but a good lot of them, no ones trying to sell in Jan

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494846#Comment_119494846

Actually, things have been levelling off in the last few weeks - total on Daft today is roughly the same as this time last week, which is the first time that's happened in a while. Maybe because it's August and there's less activity..?

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119477101#Comment_119477101

We will get a liquidity crisis. Followed by, or alongside, a currency crisis brought on by derivatives hell. When that happens, pretty much all asset valuations apart from precious metals, will tank to their correct level. A liquidity crisis drives all assets down. Then PMs rebound up. The follow-on currency crisis (likely commencing in UK and then EU and others before the dollar itself finally keels and we get 'Bretton Woods III' hammered out - not an easy thing when the world is extremely divided at present).

Just my assessment. The inner workings of the Irish economy and property market will be peripheral to Irish house prices when an EU sovereign debt crisis manifests. Or a currency crisis. Whichever poison the ECB prefers. And its incoming.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494970#Comment_119494970

Imagine a lot are on holiday even if planning selling etc.

10-Sept-2021 -- 12509

Can't see us dropping by nearly 3,000 properties in less than a month... so, looks like more supply and a few developments due to come online soon e.g.

https://youtu.be/CroOwLrqL-w

Is it softening? Fwiw, I don't know.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119495226#Comment_119495226

I have a few friends in the US who are looking to buy. They have said inventory is now markedly increasing given that mtge rates have gone north quite a bit this year. We are not at that stage yet but the ECB is starting to move in that direction. Untll that happens I can't see much of an increase in supply. Most other housing markets I am monitoring are starting to crater. How will we be immune?

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119495717#Comment_119495717

We're a micro economy of pharma and tech. It may continue and if it does demand could remain high etc. Also, lot of other factors.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119496213#Comment_119496213

The market turned in the US once the Fed started raising rates. If the ECB follows suit here in a meaningful way it doesn't matter how niche we are, it will affect demand (principally in the amount that one can borrow).

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119496555#Comment_119496555

It will make no difference to the amount you can borrow unless mortgage rates go above 6%

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119496555#Comment_119496555

ECB won't raise rates, sure their new mechanism invented as of a couple a months ago is to raise rates slowly whilst printing more money to buy PIGS debts. Fighting inflation by slowly tightening the belt and loosing it at the same time by printing more money which just goes into inflating the major asset classes.

These guys seriously are clowns to the highest degree and I could guarantee you what I am after saying they would now likely class me and my opinion as extremist. Anyone that questions there nuts ideas is an extremist.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119496599#Comment_119496599

I wouldn't be betting the farm on the ECB not raising rates that much. The mood music is definitely changing and I haven't seen our own Phil Lane being quoted that much anymore (does he have any credibility left?)

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ecb-mulls-another-big-hike-schnabel-says-inflation-outlook-hasnt-improved-2022-08-18/

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119497490#Comment_119497490

Don't get me started on that guy ha

Balluba

Apologies if this isn’t relevant.

I saw ‘For Sale’ signs outside 2 houses in North County Dublin recently. 2 different houses and 2 different estate agents. I checked on Daft and Myhome and they didn’t feature. I phoned the auctioneers and both said they were not advertising them yet. Has anyone else noticed anything similar or is this just a coincidence?

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119479846#Comment_119479846

The Ukrainians rents will be paid for by the taxpayers. So taxes will have to increase to pay for accommodation. Which will reduce peoples borrowing capacity.

Icantthinkof1

It takes a couple of days after a for sale sign goes up sometimes before the auctioneer/ daft advertises them

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119496599#Comment_119496599

All the ECB has done is bring the interest rate to 0, borrowing money should never be cheaper than saving. I really hope they add 2 more interest hikes this year.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119498278#Comment_119498278

I presume you mean ECB, I'd completely agree companies nowadays are addicted to cheap easy credit as opposed to re investing profits, and likewise there is no way in hell a prudent saver should be charged negative interest rates this just shows that the last few years they promoted getting high on cheap credit as opposed to being conservative with money. Poor policies and poor economics

Q&A

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119498019#Comment_119498019

Yes I've noticed this. As other people say it can take a couple of days for the online side of things to catch up but My guess is it's seasonal factors. A lot of people are in holidays in August. The sale sign use to be the main way of attracting interest whereas now it's probably more email. Easy to miss your daft/myhome alert when you're on holidays. Put the sign up now will catch some people but I can see the sense of waiting a couple of weeks for the online stuff.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119497498#Comment_119497498

Looks like the pressure being ratcheted up.

Germany’s central bank chief has warned that interest rates need to keep rising despite the risk of recession as inflation reaches double-digit levels for the first time since 1951.

Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel told the Rheinische Post that the recent surge in energy prices caused by Russia’s squeeze on gas supplies was likely to drive German inflation above 10 per cent this autumn and keep it elevated next year.

“The issue of inflation will not go away in 2023,” said Nagel. “Supply bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions are likely to continue. Meanwhile, Russia has drastically reduced its gas supplies, and natural gas and electricity prices have risen more than expected.”

He added that “the probability is growing that inflation will be higher than previously forecast and that we will have an average of six before the decimal point next year”, pointing out that this would exceed the 2023 inflation forecast of 4.5 per cent made by the Bundesbank in June.

https://www.ft.com/content/c23d11f4-5aca-463f-9102-44269b289b1f