Softening house market?

HopsAndJumps

There is a massive slow down in interest. I viewed 2 houses and two duplexes in Dublin. at about the 300k mark. Nobody else viewed the first 3 and just two others showed up to the last viewing.

Earlier in the summer there was a queue around the corner to get into the houses. The auctioneer mentioned that the slowdown is huge and that people are getting turned down for mortgages, that's why so many houses are going sale agreed and then going back on the market.

Q&A

Seasonal factors at play with people only coming back from holidays now. Might expect a pick up in the market now.

Perhaps increases in ECB rates have people spooked but this could play the other way too where people try to move quickly and lock in cheaper rates now.

As long as there's a property shortage and high employment prices should remain resilient.

lisasimpson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119523430#Comment_119523430

Cannot see a slowdow in limerick or the general midwest for a while. In the last 5 years Limerick has had big job announcements from the some big pharma such as Edward life sciences regenorn, Lilly and expanding financial services in midwest. On top on that in communter towns like nenagh thurles, templemore and newport there have been no new developments in years. Ive heard of sale where a property was never evem advertised 6 months ago. There was so much demand for 1 house in an estate the auctioneer gave 1st refusal of this particular house to unsuccessful bidders of the 1st one

HopsAndJumps

A friend at work is going selling and buying in Mullingar now. Slow down there too, some houses going for under asking.

Balluba

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119530232#Comment_119530232

If the ECB decide on a 75 basis points interest rate hike in September it could happen that many more houses will sell for under the asking price.

Shauna677

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119530232#Comment_119530232

You cant blame people for hesitating in making the biggest purchase of their lives, theres a global slowdown, theres an energyy crisis, a war thats not abating, far too much uncertainty, you would want to be off your head in buying a house right now.

WhiteWalls

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119535200#Comment_119535200

Talk is cheap but you would also want to be off your head in paying the rents that people are paying now. Plenty of couples for example on the pot for 3/4 years talking about buying while also flusing over 20k a year down the said pot

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119535200#Comment_119535200

I was shouting almost those exact words to anyone who’d listen back in 2020 when the world was ending with COVID.

It turned out to be the most expensive decision of my life.

Not saying you won’t be right this times around, but timing the property market is incredibly difficult and the movements often don’t seem to make much sense.

WhiteWalls

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119530047#Comment_119530047

There is most certainly not a massive slowdown in interest in Dublin amyway. Also I can't picture an EA saying that unless he's particularly bad at his job

Drog79

We offered 50 thousand over asking against another bidder who was ready to go with cash a few weeks ago.... Cash was king and our bid not taken. 50 is a lot to refuse.

But it gave us pause for thought, the taking fright has begun. I think we're content to watch for another year now.

WhiteWalls

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119535338#Comment_119535338

What's the big advantage when it comes to the cash for a vendor?

Q&A

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119535390#Comment_119535390

A quick sale as less moving parts.

No having to listen to how the purchasers house sale fell through our how the bank won't lend them the extra money etc.

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119535338#Comment_119535338

Wonder was it an institutional investor with the cash.

Ozark707

Interesting analysis released by myhome.ie. Coupled with the figures released by the bankers federation last week it would indicate a slowdown in the number of places that would otherwise have been sold.

The research included a survey of close to 2,900 prospective homebuyers and renters for MyHome, which is owned by The Irish Times media group. The report’s authors found that the rise in the cost of living is “having a significant effect on property market sentiment”.

MyHome’s research found that almost half of prospective homebuyers surveyed said rises in the cost living had affected their ability to buy, while the same was true of almost two-thirds of prospective new renters. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they had finance in place to allow them to buy over the next year, but only 54 per cent were confident they would be able to buy in that period.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/08/29/cost-of-living-crisis-makes-it-harder-to-afford-to-move-say-homebuyers/

Shauna677

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/08/27/david-mcwilliams-china-is-experiencing-a-giant-property-crash-ireland-could-be-next/

Interesting article.

"The warning from China is that property goes bad and when it does, the entire economic edifice is threatened because so many are vested. We’ve seen this movie. We are at the same game as the Chinese, although at a different stage of the credit cycle. People think that because there’s a shortage of property, we will not have a property slump. We can because it’s all about price and today Irish property prices are way out of whack with incomes and are sustained only by panic and its better sounding counterpart, confidence.

Banking And Payments"

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119535686#Comment_119535686

We have indeed seen this movie. I can't see us faring as badly as China (though who knows what the CCP will ultimately do in stepping in to prop up the market).

HopsAndJumps

"There is most certainly not a massive slowdown in interest in Dublin amyway. Also I can't picture an EA saying that unless he's particularly bad at his job"

The auctioneer was leaving so she told us what was going on in the market.

HopsAndJumps

"You cant blame people for hesitating in making the biggest purchase of their lives, theres a global slowdown, theres an energyy crisis, a war thats not abating, far too much uncertainty, you would want to be off your head in buying a house right now."

Unfortunately due to age, a baby and rents, we have to buy and in a place in an area that we don't want.

lordleitrim

In my locality in West Dublin, I've been keeping an eye in properties near me on DAFT for the last 2 years as I'm half thinking of moving. What I've observed is up to about 4 months ago, properties appeared and went sale agreed in a matter of weeks however since about May or June I've seen most properties just remain on Daft for 3+ months. I've also noticed properties reappear suggesting a lot of fallen through sales. I've a feeling the expected 0.75% ECB rate rise next month will only accelerate this pattern as banks and buyers get more spooked at their abilities to finance homes.

mcsean2163

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/897353/millionaires-row-in-limerick-surge-in-property-sales-in-excess-of-500-000.html

In all of 2021, 47 homes changed hands for over €500,000.

So far this year it's 55. I wonder is that a reflection of last years end of year strength or are prices continuing to escalate in Limerick?

landofthetree

We could be looking at unemployment of 15-20% by this time next year.

Small businesses are going to shut down in record numbers over the winter due to energy costs. Even the bigger ones won't be able to cope. Going to have a huge impact on house prices.

OEP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119540980#Comment_119540980

Where are you pulling that number out of?

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541769#Comment_119541769

My own prediction.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/small-irish-coffee-shop-shocked-27863592

10,000 euros to run a small cafe for two months. This is before the huge increases coming this winter. No small business sustain these sort of price increases.

OEP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541851#Comment_119541851

Right. At the height of the previous recession, unemployment hit 15% and our current unemployment rate is at a 21 year low of 4.2%. So you're predicting it's going to be 15% - 20% within the next year?

Claw Hammer

That is all in the future. the here and now on the ground is that people are getting mortgage approval and bidding.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541851#Comment_119541851

Small coffee shops are going to be closing all over as so many WFH now. Meanwhile banks are screaming for staff. Good move to the bank as a job over a coffee shop and good for the economy. There are tons of jobs on offer that aren't retail while retail can't get staff at the moment. Just a changing job market.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119542786#Comment_119542786

So will we become a country where we dont eat or socialize out? Pubs, restaurants and coffee shops will and are closing down and will continue to do so during the winter, now think about that, what is the one thing we like about going away - eating out , having a pint, the closing down of these places will have a knock on effect to both people coming to live here and people coming to holiday here. Also those working from home will see a huge increase in their elecy bill.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541851#Comment_119541851

There has to be more to the story than that. 10k for 2 months of electricity is bananas.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119542885#Comment_119542885

No just that there will be businesses closing. You want to make it out like a post apocalyptic world where everything is destroyed. Things are changing is all. Local coffee shops have popped up in neighbourhoods where there were none. I am happy to pay the electricity to save commute times and better comfort than the office. I won't mourn another coffee shop closing

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119542960#Comment_119542960

We will only know this in hindsight, but can you see the majority of small and medium businesses being able to stay afloat with the energy price increase and other areas hedging into higher inflation, the expectation that pay should rise to meet inflation and trying to turn a profit.? A lot of our SMEs were on life support through out Covid and with the Covid supports disappearing and an expectation for the company to get back to business and survive and get through the upcoming recession is crazy as their customer base is also been hit with inflation and energy price increases and this will mean less disposable income. Already our consumer confidence is at its lowest since Covid began. You say your happy to pay the elecy bill as it offsets the commute, yet there is talk of energy prices doubling from what is today not everyone will be able to afford it.

You may not mourn the coffee shop closing but if any of our MNCs decide Ireland's culture (ye know the fact you can no longer go out and have a coffee in that coffee shop your no longer mourning) and landscape is no longer suitable for their employees they may well tuck tail and run. 10 companies pay 55% of our corpo taxes in this country. If the MNCs start flaking Ireland Inc is goosed.

Usually in a recession no one can see when it starts exactly or when it finishes and its normally in hindsight, but the one coming this winter/Spring 2023 is the exception, due to the fact we are heading into winter which means we as either a person or a company use more energy and that is going to hit every other area within the economy with regards to how much discretionary spend we are left with.