Softening house market?

Ray Palmer · 07-09-2022 11:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119583202#Comment_119583202

Oh I remember these people before 2007. When the crash happened they were all laughing about how they knew it would happen and they would pick up a bargain. They had invested in the stock market instead of property with the belief the property would crash but their stock would maintain value and grow. That came out as a big shock when stocks tanked, they lost their jobs and the banks weren't lending.

They had a reprieve as rents dropped for a bit so they laughed at people in negative equity paying more for a mortgage than rent. People even gave their properties back to the council that they bought with government plan to help them buy as the saw they could rent for less than mortgages.

Buying a property is a marathon not a sprint and people would do well to truely consider their personal circumstances rather than speculation on what the market will do. In the boom days many people bought cars, appliances etc.. on their mortgages. They heard it was cheaper than getting loans but never understood that was on the grounds you paid it back as quickly as a regular loan not just left on your mortgage. That is how we get the partially informed making huge decision without understanding what they are doing. The speculation here is dangerous as it is not fully formed information with people only partially understanding what they are reading on top.

No point in gloating about what is a gamble that you may win at when you never knew it was a gamble

markodaly · 07-09-2022 11:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119583113#Comment_119583113

There is ceratinly issues around housing supply in Canada, so its not all down to speculation.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/housing-affordability-cmhc-report-2030-1.6498898

Each market will be of course slightly different, but if the property market around the Western World is either in decline from a price point of view, or in a crash, I struggle to think how Ireland is exceptional here where we don't see falling prices in the medium term.

MrMusician18 · 07-09-2022 11:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119583435#Comment_119583435

I've seen people on r/Ireland for example absolutely itching for a property crash as they say they cannot afford to buy now. However these same people believe that they will be immune from the headwinds that cause property to crash. There is a complete lack of understanding that in order for prices to fall, property has to be completely unaffordable for those actually buying at the current price or there is some other reason thousands of buyers leave the market.

Those itching for a crash will likely still be priced out due to the unavailability of credit when it comes. I would've loved to have picked up a period redbrick in Rathgar in 2014, going for 450k, but it was a cash only market at the time.

So unless these people are sitting on mountains of inflation eroded cash, they won't be buying in the crash either.

monkeybutter · 07-09-2022 12:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119583640#Comment_119583640

plenty of people did indeed pickup a bargain during the 5 years 2010 to say 2015, either they couldn't buy in 2007 or they just didn't or they were the wrong age

Plenty were unaffected by the downturn as it was largely in one sector.

They put in prudent restrictions on mortages, but you could still get one no problem, it wasn't cash only.

The cost of living will erode ability to save yes and repay, but the cash value itself only matters versus the inflation or deflation in the price of housing, if you have 100k saved an house prices remain static, inflation of energy etc means zilch

spaceHopper · 07-09-2022 12:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119574031#Comment_119574031

I'm lucky we caught the bottom of the market the last crash. The thing is two factors need to be kept in mind, if you delay buying they will be paying back smaller sum over a short time so the cost of servicing the debt could well be the same. Also if you are buying in a falling market forget about a 10% deposit you'll need at least 20%

Bass Reeves · 07-09-2022 12:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119583059#Comment_119583059

Waffle too many terms and conditions. They are looking for long term leases for many small LL that will not suit.

The whole point should be to encourage those with vacant property to rent them. There is a lot of property that is vacant short term that is not going to be rented because of present regs.

What the government is found will have f@@k all I.pact on these. It will not suit tenant's either many tenant's do not want very long term leases. Already they have these unless the LL wants the house back to sell or for a family member. Neither of these want to go e a long-term lease.

So just more regulation for what will probably be a minimal tax allowance

Donald Trump · 07-09-2022 1:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119583809#Comment_119583809

That's fine Bass. You've already displayed many times that you don't understand basic economics. We'll leave it at that.

deirdremf · 07-09-2022 2:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119583059#Comment_119583059

The government must have missed the news about all those TD landlords breaking the law ...

Ray Palmer · 07-09-2022 5:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119583757#Comment_119583757

The down turn was certainly not just one sector unless you call the sector employment. If you think the only sector was construction you weren't an adult at the time. People really don't get price and quantity of sales where talking about house prices. Very Very few people bought at the peak prices hence a crash. Yet when we talk house prices that peak price is often used.

When you say plenty of people got bargains how many are you talking about? There were not many sales and you would have to exclude thoses selling up and buying another property. Were these bargain baggers people who actually saved and waited for the right moment to pounce or just lucky? Their mortgages were also at a higher rate with no access to trackers so cost more to repay.

It really doesn't matter because they are outweighed by the people who had all these plans to pick up a bargain and failed. They weren't just waiting from 2007 they were waiting from 2002 and earlier. So for those people the gamble was huge and didn't pay off. Many were renting all that time so any savings on house purchases was minimum when all things considered. Wait 10 years to buy by al means but don't kid yourself it isn't a gamble.

You are correct about inflation based on house prices and deposits saved if you buy a property. The key being "if" and it also only applies to buying in Ireland and not general value of your money. That is a lot of gambling which everyone is free to do but many don't understand it is a gamble nor understand all the details to calculate if they saved money or not. As I said many people bought cars with mortgages because they heard it was cheaper than a car loan but never understood they had to pay it off as quickly as a car loan. There are people who have been paying for the car they no longer have for over a decade now. That is why these discussions are dangerous to the ill informed as they get support to take risks they don't understand.

monkeybutter · 07-09-2022 5:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585523#Comment_119585523

it was one sector basically, obviously a lot of people associated with it, but if you weren't in it wasn't so bad, most other countries recovered fairly quickly after 2007/2008 with all the funny money printed, we were only slow because of the housing **** up

I was a big boy at the time

tonnes of people bought at the peak, thats how it peaked, many were on the hook for houses never delivered

Its not a gamble if you are priced out of the market right now is it and its not just being priced out there aren't enough houses period, you literally cant buy

People didnt access trackers but that means little when interest rates were so low and the amounts needed to be borrowed so much less and a lot didnt even know what a tracker mortage was in the first place

the property market was more fluid than it is today, more houses sold, more houses for sale

These people are mortage free by now.

Rent was chape at the time because so many were buying

Yes plenty didn't buy into the hype the first time round and were smart

It was entirely different to today mind, as I have said

WhiteWalls · 07-09-2022 9:42pm

I know the word is that we are at Celtic tiger prices in Dublin specifically. What were prices like for your typical three bed semis in the commuter belt during the boom?

For example are prices now the exact same as they were back at the peak of the boom in that type of property?

Ozark707 · 07-09-2022 10:05pm

Over 120 new listings in Dublin today on myhome. I have seen it north of 100 I don't think since I started monitoring this about 6 months ago. The average I would say is about 60. Will be interesting to see if this was a one off.

AySeeDoubleYeh · 07-09-2022 10:29pm

DNG bumped a couple dozen of their properties in Stillorgan/Dundrum/Sandyford today, which I've never seen happen all at once before.

Of course, I've also no idea what - if anything - that means, so go about your business 😁

Ozark707 · 07-09-2022 10:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587472#Comment_119587472

All at the same price as before?

Mr Hindley · 08-09-2022 7:53am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587472#Comment_119587472

Bumped = took down and put up a fresh listing..? Or just sent out an email shot..?

AySeeDoubleYeh · 08-09-2022 8:30am

Apologies, I wasn't clear - email shot and also 'bumped' the listings to top of the list by refreshing the ads. It was striking as they did it all at once for more than a handful of properties, which I haven't seen in several years of checking (almost) daily

GoldFour4 · 08-09-2022 9:29am

I’ve seen that happen a good few times over the last few years with smaller agencies in Dublin. It’s quite annoying cause it makes the actual new listings not stand out on a sort.

Viscount Aggro · 08-09-2022 9:41am

I will be selling a house in the next few months. its 1940s built, not been occupied in last 10 years.

Ive had a few agents looking at it, valuations vary between 500 - 625K.

The house would need rewiring, and I dont have the money to do this.

One agent told me, its worth 500K as it is, or 600K if you do rewiring, painting, carpets.

markodaly · 08-09-2022 9:44am

We will know today what the latest interest rate hike is from the ECB.

Most people think it will be from 0.5% - 0.75%

Claw Hammer · 08-09-2022 10:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588360#Comment_119588360

Sounds like nonsense. Most people underestimate the cost of work on a house and thus bid too much. There is no point in rewiring on it's own. The plumbing and heating need to be done simultaneously when floorboards are up and skirtings off and walls are being chased. After that the external walls need to be insulated which will probably involve new windows. After that it all needs to be re-skimmed then re-painted. 100k wouldn't cover it.

Claw Hammer · 08-09-2022 10:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587288#Comment_119587288

Bidx1 are already at 11 pages listed with an auction scheduled till 29th September. I have never seen it as long before and certainly not 3 weeks before the auction.

bullpost · 08-09-2022 10:39am

House on my estate for sale have just dropped their price by 7%. Dun Laoghaire area and usually a big demand for houses here, this is a first since the crash that this has happened afaik.

AySeeDoubleYeh · 08-09-2022 10:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588555#Comment_119588555

My parents got the house re-wired, painted and carpeted, as well as replacing all internal doors, recently - for far less than 100k. That was in South County Dublin.

jimmybobbyschweiz · 08-09-2022 10:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588369#Comment_119588369

Then we'll have more rate rises into next year, before the whole thing crashes mid-next year. The ECB are incompetent, private sector failures and purely political pawns of the respective dominant parties in the EU - there to preserve the status quo (ie the criminal wealth redistribution from young to old via the asset bubble). What this means is that they move too slowly, lack decisiveness and are not qualified to handle the job of a pan-European economic manager. They were too slow to take the foot off the QE and low interest rate gas pedal and are now too slow to react to official inflation - the economies under their control have turned already while they are now in the throes of a huge policy mistake of raising rates to fight yesterday's demon.

The QE tap needs be turned back on but redirected to more sustainable ventures like SMEs and a green economy. However, the ECB is most likely going to keep raising rates through this dark winter that is coming and forcibly crash the eurozone. Then of course they'll blame Russia, COVID, China etc. Think of it like a storm is coming - we tie down what we have and mitigate damage, that's the best we can do for the next 12-24 months until the bottom is hit and the QE pump gets going again.

AySeeDoubleYeh · 08-09-2022 10:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588645#Comment_119588645

Listed as Glenageary, right? Saw that and thought it was telling - not a terrible price now, given the location.

JohnnyChimpo · 08-09-2022 10:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588360#Comment_119588360

Rewiring, painting and carpets sounds like about ~10k, depending on size of house and if you're willing to do some painting yourself. I suppose the general estate agent line is that it's worth investing in these relatively cheap refurbishments which will easily realise their value, but avoid any major renovation work which would probably not recoup in the current construction labour market.

If you have the cash, and can get an electrician nailed down for a few days to do the rewire (along with all chasing and making good afterwards) you'd be mad not to by the sounds of it.

Best also to see if any plumbing needs doing at the same time.

Not sure if bank or CU would do you a loan for that kind of work, but I don't see why not

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2022 11:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588649#Comment_119588649

the whole structure of the eu, in particular the euro, is a train wreck, raising rates will do nothing to elevate supply side lead inflation, but will make servicing debts even harder, what a train wreck! qe was always designed to support asset owners, and ta hell with everyone else, this is and will ultimately fail, we need a radically different approach, particularly for sme's and households, and as it stands, a significant rise in public borrowing is required throughout the eu, for this to occur, but this requires eu wide agreements, similar to what occurred during covid, but this may never occur!

Rothmans · 08-09-2022 11:14am

Morning folks. Could anybody familiar with the Dublin market give their opinions on the following;

I'm looking at houses in the sub 400k bracket, preferably within 5km of the city, with a minimum of two beds. A big ask, I know. From my Daft searches, I do get a somewhat reasonable hit of properties.

However, I'm very aware of the fact that, in Dublin, houses seem to be going well above asking. But the houses coming back in my results are generally in very poor decorative order and have shocking BER ratings. I'm of the opinion of an earlier poster who said he doesn't care about the BER right now, and am just looking at somewhere to buy.

So my question is, do these houses that I'm referring to (poor decorative order and with BERs of E, F) tend to go well over asking. To give you some context, I am linking 3 houses below. Would the asking prices of these houses be in any way reflective of the prices they sell for?

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-2-addison-road-fairview-fairview-dublin-3/4074957

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-108-herberton-road-rialto-rialto-dublin-8/4047778

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-7-clonliffe-gardens-drumcondra-dublin-3/4036412