Softening house market?

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2022 11:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588927#Comment_119588927

yes, but it is truly the only way out of primarily supply side driven inflation, squeezing the money supply will just make matters much worse as less and less money circulates the economy, forcing businesses to close, and unemployment to rise, this in turn makes it far more difficult in servicing debts in both the public and private domains, baring in mind, it was primarily excess private debt that triggered the 08 crash, and by increasing unemployment, this problems will more than likely raise its head again, as it increases the likelihood of non preforming loans and defaults!

again, our current inflationary pressures are not demand side driven, i.e. excess money, but primarily supply side driven, if both public and private sector borrowing decreases at the same time, it significantly increases the likelihood of the above occurring!

markodaly · 08-09-2022 11:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588956#Comment_119588956

You are all over the place.

In one post you give out about QE and excess money, the next post you say that excess money has nothing to do with demand side inflation?

Tell us, if there is too much money chasing too few goods, what generally happens?

Rising interest rates mean that the price of money goes up, which cools demand, which in turn reduces inflation.

You have banged that drum before in other threads, and been found out, I don't want this thread to turn into another one of your soapboxes.

fliball123 · 08-09-2022 12:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588956#Comment_119588956

Wanderer it cant be afforded, it just cant if we borrow more it means paying back more Ireland are small bananas when it comes to global finances we have given ourselves a status of importance due to the number of high tech and phama companies coming here for the tax deals but lets be clear we could borrow another 240Billion and if Russia, Gemany, UK and US continue on the path that those countries are already on we as a country will be no better off no matter how much we borrow Ireland is too open and exposed to other bigger countries finances than any other. If we lose 2/3 of the big companies in here Ireland is going to be in an even bigger sh1tstorm. Ireland is of no significance to these behemoths and they will do what they think is right for their country no matter what pain it inflicts on other countries. Case in point the bailout of 08 German bond holders had Irish debt but we were told we could not default on these boyos and had to pay for other peoples gamble. Now the German economy (in particular their manufacturing) is on the lamb and the whole of the EU is supposed to deal with rolling blackouts to keep these lads afloat.

This countries money spenders have shown they are unable to do the job properly time and time again its in our faces (HSE, Housing, access to disability, transport, Infrastructure, etc, etc the list goes on and on) and giving them more money to throw on to the bonfire is the wrong way to go. If they had a proven track record of sound and steady spending I would say maybe but not when we are already 240 billion in debt or the third most indebted country per capita in the world, Ireland should not be looking for the gold medal when it comes to borrowing.

markodaly · 08-09-2022 1:25pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2022/0908/1321245-ecb-rates/

.75% it is

I personally thought they would stick to .5% as the ECB is always cautious, so this is a bit of a surprise. They also don't rule out anymore rises.. Things may get interesting real fast

fliball123 · 08-09-2022 1:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119589447#Comment_119589447

The Euro is being mauled out in the currency market they had to do something. I am surprised they did not go the full 1% and can see another increase in December

odyssey06 · 08-09-2022 1:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588827#Comment_119588827

The Drumcondra one will go for higher I expect given it has potential to improve.

Addison Road, no parking, and it's a side street off very busy Fairview Strand which is in a heap right now with roadworks - and will be like that until next summer. That might dampen down its price.

Don't know Rialto.

Rothmans · 08-09-2022 1:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119589511#Comment_119589511

Thank you. It's quite hard to gauge to Dublin Market.

Would you have any estimate on how far above the Drumcondra property would go?

MrMusician18 · 08-09-2022 2:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588916#Comment_119588916

Its impossible to know. A recession, even a mild one but that hits big tech could result in dramatic falls in the Dublin market - if all the foreign workers up sticks and leave at the same time.

Strong demand from elsewhere could however support prices.

There are too many moving parts to call this. If you are buying, move somewhere that you can work with in the long term

odyssey06 · 08-09-2022 2:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119589675#Comment_119589675

I could see a bidding war on that one, semi-detached in Drumcondra, €450k at least maybe up to €480k.

It's inside the Croke Park exclusion zone so match days won't be fun unless you're a GAA fan.

ittakestwo · 08-09-2022 3:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119589459#Comment_119589459

The market are anticipating a rise next month too. Maybe the ECB have to rise every month now. They left it too late to raise them.

4% base rate was historically seen as an average base. After the last 10 years we have become use to extraordinary low interest rates. Even after the July and todays increase we are only at 1.25% base rate while inflation is at 9% in the eurozone which is a 40 year high. Makes sence for the increases to keep coming untill inflation comes down.

SummerK · 08-09-2022 7:06pm

I see supply steadily increasing. There are 19,430 properties (incl land) for sale on daft.ie and I think it's a good sign for prospective buyers.

combat14 · 08-09-2022 7:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119590362#Comment_119590362

house prices will struggle if we are looking at multiple sudden sustained rate rises coupled with rampant inflation

Sierra Oscar · 08-09-2022 8:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119589447#Comment_119589447

It looks like the large banks are set to absorb this latest round of rate rises.

They’re certainly using it as an opportunity to encourage tracker customers to move to fixed rates. They’re really gaining back competitiveness that they lost towards some of the specialised new entrant lenders in recent years.

Interest rates up 1.25% and the large banks are yet to pass on the increases to variable rate holders or those entering into new fixed term contracts. Pretty remarkable.

Those huge deposits held by the banks are starting to reap rewards now, whereas they were a noose around their necks for years when the interbank lending rates were negative.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0908/1321368-bank-of-ireland-tracker-mortgage-hike/

Jonnyc135 · 08-09-2022 9:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119589070#Comment_119589070

Sensible and conservative statement, hopefully things are kept conservative in terms of spending, I have my doubts I think the government will do a full Lizz Truss and throw money everywhere in order to pacify the people and buy votes so Sinn Fein can't get in, and if all goes tips up then they'll let Sinn Fein break all their promises when the hard decissions have to be made (that's providing Sinn Fein do what their told by the EU heavy hitters).

A really conservative approach is needed at the min, otherwise things could get alot more ugly when the can has been kicked into oblivion down the road

mcsean2163 · 08-09-2022 9:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119592475#Comment_119592475

Don't think so, last ntma bond issue was over 2% and now the rates have gone up. 3% next? Bonds have to be rolled over and could be 10x interest as it was in January.

€3 million v €30 million per billion is a big difference.

In 2020, interest payments on general government debt amounted to €3.8 billion. In September 2021, nearly three-quarters of debt were at rates of 2 per cent or below.

If we had to pay 3% on our national debt, that'd be €7.3 billion per annum. We're safe at the moment but the German's will not want high inflation. If ECB stays as is over a few years....

Pascal knows we're in trouble, unlikely we'll blow our load early if he has a say.

Jonnyc135 · 08-09-2022 10:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119592645#Comment_119592645

Paschal in fairness is a shrude operator and knows well, I'd be more afraid of that clown Varadkar and his constant craving of populism, I think when they going gets tuff they will cave into populism and blow it

jay0109 · 08-09-2022 10:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119591624#Comment_119591624

Do you know of anyone who's been tracking Daft for sale numbers? Be interesting to see how they look for the past year +

dontmindme · 08-09-2022 10:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119592905#Comment_119592905

~~shrude~~ shrewd

Bass Reeves · 09-09-2022 2:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119592276#Comment_119592276

Most tracker mortgage's are 15+years old. Most have had a great ten years. They have had 10ish+ years of free money. I have a commercial tracker unfortunately it will increase but there is only 7 by 6 monthly repayments left. There was a lot of short term money refinanced over the last 2 years over COVID.

For some it's a case of read them and weep

I made this prediction 10+days ago. I am not sure if it was on this thread or the 2022 property thread.

Sierra Oscar · 09-09-2022 7:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119593586#Comment_119593586

That's true, tracker mortgage customers have had a good run at it. You can tell the banks are desperate to try and get them to switch to variable or fixed rates. To be honest, if I was a tracker mortgage customer I would still think long and hard about switching and do the sums. The markets are pricing in interest rate drops in the US from next year.

Mr Hindley · 09-09-2022 8:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119593033#Comment_119593033

These are the stats that I've been recording - just total number of all properties (incl sites) for sale on Daft. The increase had showed signs of slowing, but speeding up again now.

Former Former Former · 09-09-2022 9:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588827#Comment_119588827

Would the asking prices of these houses be in any way reflective of the prices they sell for?

I sold my previous house in 2021. One estate agent said he'd set the asking price 10 - 20% below what he would expect to get, so as to draw people in and get them bidding. The next guy said he'd pitch the asking price just above what he thought he'd get for it, and if the bidding went up from there, happy days. So the exact same house could have had an asking price of maybe 30 or 40 k higher if I'd gone with the second guy.

Point is: asking prices don't mean a whole lot.

Browney7 · 09-09-2022 10:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119593931#Comment_119593931

Interesting trend. Are these "ads" or "properties"? Many new developments will likely have one ad for multiple properties. Likely that new build as a % of overall supply is at a higher point than in the past.

quokula · 09-09-2022 10:40am

Completely anecdotal, but I've noticed a lot of the houses meeting my search criteria this week have had videos included in the ads - this was a practice that seemed to have stopped the previous few months. Are Estate Agents having to actually do some work to get interest now?

Definitely been an uptick in the number of houses I'm seeing appear too. No drop in asking prices that I've noticed though.

Buddy Bubs · 09-09-2022 11:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594082#Comment_119594082

I had the exact same from my local estate agents when they viewed my house.

Asking prices are a sales strategy and nothing more. Look at property price register for selling prices.

You can normally Google the address and the old ad with asking prices comes up then you can compare asking v selling if you really want, but asking becomes fairly irrelevant after the sale.

Mr Hindley · 09-09-2022 11:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594258#Comment_119594258

Yeah, it would just be 'ads', so as you say, new devs would show up as a single entry. So if the proportion of new devs vs second-hand properties is increasing (which it probably has been), then that graph is masking an even higher increase in availability.