Softening house market?

dontmindme

Looking at price changes in Dublin at https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges/dublin , there are 130 pages with varying amounts on each page. Not knowing how to extract all the data I just ran through the first twenty pages and see 142 decreases against 56 increases.

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119601226#Comment_119601226

If you click on any property on that list, you'll see stats for number of increases and decreases in the local area over the last 3 months.

I've been tracking this and have these stats. Although something's not quite right, I'm now wondering if I've been capturing stats for just south Dublin vs all Dublin. Either way, definitely a trend there.

Donald Trump

...

Edit. Ignore. Information was already in the post above.

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119595093#Comment_119595093

NZ and Aussies are leaving in their thousands every month to go live in the UK. Its like the 1970s all over again.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119603077#Comment_119603077

Aussies increasing the amount of immigration in as well.

CANBERRA, Australia (AP) — The Australian government announced on Friday it will increase its permanent immigration intake by 35,000 to 195,000 in the current fiscal year as the nation grapples with skills and labor shortages.

https://apnews.com/article/australia-immigration-government-and-politics-2ce40ee71e3b5066f8ab887141ab3e8d

lordleitrim

Economist who predicted 2008 crash sounds alarm bells for Irish property market

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/economist-who-predicted-2008-crash-sounds-alarm-bells-for-irish-property-market-41979523.html

Interesting viewpoints from 4 economists about what may happen for property prices in the coming few years...

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119603701#Comment_119603701

Ah, Jim Power. The self-employed economist who told us all in 2007 that then Irish house prices were sustainable and rubbished any warnings about same.

I find it interesting ("unbelievable" is probably a better word) that there are 17,000 non-performing pre-2008 borrowers. Society shouldn't be bailing those people out to that extent. The market should have been allowed settle rather than being artificially propped up.

Dante

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119603771#Comment_119603771

Grade A spoofer.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119603782#Comment_119603782

Well it is always going to be, at best, educated guesses. But to have been working in that field, and to put yourself forward as some kind of expert while pissing on anyone who was sounding warning bells is fairly bad. The average person on the street can be forgiven for it. But the likes of him should not be let forget it.

manniot2

All these economists are grade a spoofers. I heard McWilliams during covid saying it was a good thing to put the economy into ‘hibernation’ for a while. No it was extremely bad and has led to supply chain mayhem, massive gov debt, inflation, rising interest rates and recession.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119603852#Comment_119603852

Irish government policies have little to no impact on any supply chain issues. Those are global issues.

Risk of recession is mainly due to soaring energy prices which were there from before this year, and have been exacerbated greatly by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

manniot2

Did I say Irish gov policies caused supply chain problems?

Ah yes, the Ukraine is the cause of the recession. There was no inflation pre the invasion of course

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604009#Comment_119604009

I'm sure that printing about 60 billion euros in less and two years and largely releasing it into the domestic economy had not ill effect whatsoever...none at all...

Regarding "alarm bells" for the housing market. I have to giggle a little at that. If a crash started tomorrow, people up and down the country would be dancing with joy. I don't know about the rest of you, but 2008 is starting to seem like the good old days XD.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604009#Comment_119604009

Inflation in 2021 was 2.4%. That's pretty much exactly where the ECB wants it to be so their monetary policy was fine. Then came the war.

Ireland is not in a recession. We'll see where we are in a few months but there is no recession yet.

I'm amazed at the amount of people who actively want the economy to crash. I can only assume they think somehow they'll benefit. You won't. Not with the grasp of economics that you're showing here.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605435#Comment_119605435

That's not really correct, inflation may have been that for the year but, asset price inflation and commodities were spiralling, fertiliser plants had shut in Europe in November 2021, all these prices take atleast 9-10 months to get baked in, all in all the ECB could and should have seen all these signs and started to cool things in Autum 2021, then the war came and turbo charged everything, they fucked up and weel end up living with the consequences

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605500#Comment_119605500

Agreed. Take a look at the tulip bulb commodity of our time, Bitcoin*. It fell to about 4k in early 2020, but got up to nearly 60k a coin in 2021. This mirrors the stock market in general, so it would seem that all of that funny money was going into the asset markets.

Regarding the war, I've heard it said that many of the effects of the war may not yet be fully manifest. I myself would be concerned about the impact on food production from the sanctions, and the general disruption to one of the world's bread-baskets. Food prices will almost certainly go north in the months to come. Add to that rising interest rates, rising energy bills and God knows what other "current things" may be waiting in the hills. One is well justified to say that the good time, they are over.

Of course, we should not worry. At the helm, Ireland has the finest collection of malicious cowards, pension collectors and lunatics in Europe. The ship of state is indeed in good hands...

*Before anyone jumps on me about this, I too delved into crypto. I made about 2k in profits, reinvested it and lost it before pulling out. I'm sticking to my old friends gold and silver from now on....

markodaly

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/9/11/23344956/housing-market-slump-crash-recession-home-prices-utah-arizona-california

More about the housing slump in the US, but this bit jumps out at me.

Another key to this conversation, Palacios said, is even though inventory is still relatively low, high mortgage rates have also had a dramatic impact on demand. Not only have higher mortgage rates priced out would-be buyers, but they’ve also “locked up” homeowners who purchased or refinanced during this “once-in-a-generation financing window.”

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605500#Comment_119605500

ECB knew all of this and had factored it into their models. What they did not factor in was the war.

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, December 2021 (europa.eu)

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606693#Comment_119606693

I think we know now that central banks including the ECB got it very wrong over the past few years. Remember when the Fed was adamant that inflation was transitory?

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606740#Comment_119606740

I don't think we know that at all.

Things were going just fine, inflation was creeping up and rate rises were on the cards... until an evil regime (and massive energy supplier) invaded a sovereign country that also happened to be crucial to global trade.

Blaming the Fed and the ECB for not foreseeing that is a bit odd tbh.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606774#Comment_119606774

Then you have been living under a rock for the past year.

The reputations of central bankers the world over is in tatters. The Economist did a special on this about 6 months ago, and came up with many interesting theories. I suggest you perhaps do some reading first on the matter.

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022-04-23

You can't blame it all on Ukraine, as inflation was already high before the war broke out.

And this is not just an ECB thing, one can point to central bankers the world over from the Bank of England, the Fed, to the Reserve bank in both Australia and NZ for misjudging the situation entirely. Now they are trying to wrestle back control.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606740#Comment_119606740

central banks cant do anything about supply side inflation, raising rates wont help at all...

Claw Hammer

The recession has started. House prices will be going down from now on and for some time to come. Anyone who buys now will regret it. Bidx1 is into 12 pages already and a lot of their lingerers have "new pricing". The vultures are throwing everything possible onto the market to try and get the properties away while there is still some cash around.

To crown it all a builder contacted me last week wanting to know did I want any jobs done. The building industry is contracting with projects being cancelled and odd jobs are starting to look attractive again. It is like 2009 all over again.

alwald

I don't know if house prices, for both new and second hand, will stay the same, go up or down over the next 6/12/18 and 24 months as a result of inflation and the war in Ukraine. What I know for sure is that supply is very tight and any sign of recession will not contribute positively to the supply side whatsoever.

Sierra Oscar

The latest Residential Property Price Index figures should be released by the CSO over the next day or so, should be interesting to see what way the trend is going.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607142#Comment_119607142

Not all recessions are the same. In general through history we've had one every 7-10 years so we were overdue. We all hear about the 2009 recession but many others were very different, and its very rare to see the mass reduction in house prices like we saw in 2009.

In particular we've never gone into a recession with unemployment so low, so while people are still getting salaries which are unaffected or rising with inflation, it's hard to see house prices reducing (although I definitely hope the rate of growth slows significantly).

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607322#Comment_119607322

The 2008 crash in prices was caused by a glut of supply and a sudden paucity of credit. The lack of credit quickly pulled the rug from under the demand for housing, and we saw a correction.

Today, we have a lack of supply and a huge level of demand. I think that we can forget about a large increase on the supply side of things, which means that a crash would only come about with a significant reduction in demand. What could cause that? I don't know, but there will be no crash whilst demand is as high as it is.

One thing, however, is clear. The state wants property to be expensive, and it suits a sizable chunk of the population that it remains so. damn the consequences. I personally think that something will change in the next few years, but nothing happens in a vacuum. We shall see...

OEP

It all depends on how the recession effects job numbers. The cost of mortgages is increasing so that will most likely reduce prices somewhat, however, if there aren't big job losses (particularly in "professional" jobs as they're the ones buying houses) then prices probably won't drop all that much.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607142#Comment_119607142

I have to echo this sentiment, it feels like the point has been crossed where mood and sentiment have shifted. What comes next is a bit of bad data that is quickly dismissed by the vested interests, then some more bad data which is met with defiance. Let's just hope everyone held onto their pandemic savings and didn't splurge them because having a stable income and savings, as always, will be crucial until the bottom is hit in a few years. What is essential in understanding what is going to happen is to understand what created the mess; excessive QE and low for too long rates. To gauge the fallout is to gauge the retraction in QE and the rise in rates. Anything else (eg Brexit, Ukraine etc) is just trimming.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607609#Comment_119607609

Are you basing that on anything in particular or is it more a "I have a feeling" thing