Softening house market?

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119645972#Comment_119645972

Politicians only react to what boomers want, because they will get out and vote.

If more young people got up of their ar$e$ and voted, their voices would help shape public policy.

markw7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119645972#Comment_119645972

Yes because the "boomer generation" are completely different from other humans that came before or after them. Christ thats some crock of sh1t, as if other generations would have done any better.

timmyntc

The term boomer is the most pathetic attempt at discourse going.

Nobody can even define what a boomer is or when they were born - in America it initially made sense as "Boomers" referred to the baby boomer generation - however in Ireland there simply is no parallel since our "baby boom" didnt happen until the early 80s - almost 25-30 years after the US' post-war baby boom.

It is a nonsense term that adds nothing to the discussion other than makes the poster sounds like an angsty teenager.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119646587#Comment_119646587

Well, yes they were. The boomers were the first generation in a long time not to suffer through extreme hardship. The early part of the 20th century saw the two worst wars in human history and one of the worst economic downturns to boot. Those born after the Second World War saw none of this, and they grew up whilst the modern welfare state was on the rise.

Humans are always human, bit the milieu in which we mature can and does have enormous influence on out mindsets and outlooks, and the world has changed greatly in the last few decades. If you want to believe that that this had no bearing on the outlook of that generation, so be it. I choose to believe otherwise, but I don't think that what you think is a "crock of sh1t" simply because I disagree.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119646597#Comment_119646597

It's not a nonsense term. It is a useful, though I will grant you imprecise, term that is used to attempt to understand the past by categorisation.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119646761#Comment_119646761

Everything you've said in that 1st paragraph about boomers does not apply at all to Irish people up until very recently.

Only starting in the 90s was Ireland not in a period of "extreme hardship"

markw7

Yep the conditions produced the behaviour, vast majority of people will act a certain way in certain circumstances. Thats why I think the blaming of "boomers" is a red herring or crock of sh1t as I so eloquently put it, the vast majority of us would have behaved the same way imho.

markw7

Wrong thread

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119646761#Comment_119646761

Its nonsense as it doesn't apply to Ireland. 500,000 people left Ireland between 1945 and 1960

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119647039#Comment_119647039

Maybe not boomer in the US demographic sense, but when you compare the demographic pyramid of the USA for 1970 when boomer bulge was obvious with over half the population under the age of 25 it does chime somewhat with Ireland in 1990 when emigration had declined and 45% of the population was under 25.

It's that cohort that are the comfortable middle now.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119647597#Comment_119647597

They aren't boomers. Though. Current middle agers (and those 25ish in 1990) are Generation X.

So not only did he get the demographic wrong he's blaming it on better living standards which didn't happen till way later.

There a lack of all context here. It completely ignores the privatization of many industries and services in the 1980s as means to balance the books of the state. The Commodification of Housing was a natural extension of that, as such it was means to reduce state costs as it related to housing. At the same time there's an economic and technology boom which exploded in the very late 80s and early 90s.

Really this is looking back with the benefit of hindsight and hindsight is 20:20 vision. But its a distorted hindsight.

Shauna677

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119646597#Comment_119646597

Are you serious, are you forgetting contraception was banned in ireland up until the 80s. There were large families everywhere..

dontmindme

Softening house market?

More properties/choice certainly, whether that translates to value is another thing. Think prices may be starting to slow up. There are certainly many asking price decreases, but what's driving this is the question.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119647686#Comment_119647686

I can't find any stats on it. This was the nearest I could get. Its not that useful as it doesn't show family size as a % of all families. The largest segment by a long way is families of 2-4 in 1981.

Table 3.1

Number of children in household Although there are now more families than ever before, the families in question are smaller and this is reflected in a steady reduction in the numbers of children in family households. As Table 3.1 shows, the number of children aged under 15 living in small households (those with one or two children) rose sharply between 1981 and 2006, while the numbers living in larger households (those with four, five or six or more children) fell equally sharply. For example, in the case of children living in one-child households, the increase was from 118,041 in 1981 to 209,402 in 2006 (a rise of 77 per cent), while in the case of children living in four-child households, the decrease over the same period was from 196,304 to 81,384 (a fall of 59 per cent). In 2006, 62 per cent of children were living in households with one or two children, compared to 35 per cent in 1981, while 13 per cent of children were living in households with four, five or six or more children, compared to 38 per cent in 1981. 

https://thelifeinstitute.net/images/prorfamilies-in-irelandnov2008.pdf

Ubbquittious

Which part isnt true?

Pussyhands

Anyone interested in how the economy will do in the next while needs to listen to Jerome Powells speech which he raised interest rates.

Said they will crush inflation, they will soften the labour market and there will probably be a house price correction.

EU have no choice but to follow the same path. There is going to be greater pain coming in the months ahead. Meta are reportedly looking to cut costs by 10% and reduce the workforce.

The major companies are discussing cuts. It's only a matter of time. We don't have much pain yet. Hope people are prepared and don't get caught on the hop.

greenfield21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119648653#Comment_119648653

Nonsense according to the so called experts on here, these same companies are going to increase wages to keep up with inflation and everyone who dosent get a pay rise will go on strike...housing in Ireland is a hedge against inflation.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119648690#Comment_119648690

No what many posters said was that if you had sustained inflation then wages would increase and so would house prices.

Remember that the EU has multiple economies. It's the inflation in the larger economies it wants to control. When EU bank rate reaches 3% inflation will reduce other than energy inflation.

mike_cork

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119648653#Comment_119648653

For anyone interested this bit from Powell really stood out.

From the Guardian:

"Fed chair Jerome Powell rattled investors last night by insisting, again, that his central bank would keep tightening rates to push down inflation, and wouldn’t rule out a recession.

Powell warned:

We have always understood that restoring price stability while achieving a relatively modest increase in unemployment and a soft landing would be very challenging.

And we don’t know. No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be.”

markodaly

Powell also admits that the housing market is heading for a correction, but that its needed in the greater scheme of things. They are really going after inflation and they wont be reducing rates to rescue the housing market.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-us-housing-market-headed-correction-2022-09-21/

What this means for Ireland is unknown buts is almost unanimous that there will be some type of recession in both the US and EU in the next year or so. Housing will correct is most economies around the world. Will Ireland be immune to this? I doubt it.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649712#Comment_119649712

People who are thinking the housing market will be fine are saying so because they say high inflation is good for higher house prices and higher wages.

What they don't realise is that sustained high inflation is one of the worst things that there could be in an economy from the eyes of the policy makers.

Policy makers would rather have a hard recession with job losses and pain than have high inflation embedded into the economy. High inflation is THAT dangerous. Only small level of inflation is good from policy makers perspective.

All these job announcements made recently, apple etc. I think there's every chance these will eventually be cancelled. There was already a Canadian firm who announced jobs here a couple months back and they've already cancelled these plans.

mike_cork

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649861#Comment_119649861

Purely anecdotal i know-But one of my best friends is an IT Director....Was looking to move recently but was telling me the tech jobs market has really slowed down in the last 3 months with many companies implementing hiring freezes.

He was also telling me- that from what he's hearing there will be layoffs in alot of tech companies in Ireland within the next 6 months. However no one seems to know how severe (or how light for that matter) these layoffs will be.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649884#Comment_119649884

Comments like this always make me laugh when they pop up in this thread:

 that from what he's hearing there will be layoffs in alot of tech companies in Ireland within the next 6 months. However no one seems to know how severe (or how light for that matter) these layoffs will be.

Let's be clear, your mate has no idea whatsoever if there will be layoffs in these companies. Do you think tech companies go around gossiping with each other that they're about to implement layoffs and telling random IT directors what their plans are?

Nobody knows how severe they'll be because nobody knows anything. It is speculation and gossip.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649917#Comment_119649917

It is hardly just 'speculation and gossip'. A lot of IT companies have shed staff. Many companies are not publicising this (possibly through chopping contractors?). Snap went public with their announced cuts.

Meta, as of last year the name of Facebook’s parent company, has long had a practice that employees whose roles are eliminated are subject to termination if they can’t find a new job internally within a month. Many other companies also make efforts to reassign employees whose groups are closed or restructured.

At Meta historically, it was usually only employees that were deemed undesirable who failed to land new positions. Now, affected employees and managers say, workers with good reputations and strong performance reviews are being pushed out on a regular basis.

Snap Inc. is among the outliers in publicly announcing layoffs. The company last week said it would slash about 20% of its staff after growing its head count by around 65% since the end of 2020.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/meta-and-google-are-cutting-staff-just-dont-mention-layoffs-11663778729?mod=hp_lead_pos2

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649964#Comment_119649964

It is pure gossip on here!

"I heard from a mate who heard from a mate who knows someone who works in the canteen at Google who overheard their HR director talking about mass layoffs while he was in having his lunch the other day. ".

That is where we are on this thread now.

Nobody knows if there will be layoffs or how big they will be. Nobody.

The speculation is like a self-fulfilling loop. For example people will read about these supposed layoffs on this thread, then go talk to their friends that they heard about layoffs, and then their friends come back here with "I heard there's going to be layoffs!". And round and round we go.

WSJ articles with actual sources, and company press releases are not comparable in any way to the idle speculation we get on here.

Jmc25

I've been monitoring auctioneera on and off since the start of the year as I think it's a useful indicator of current sale agreed prices - saves ringing actual estate agents to enquire!

Over the last month or so there's been a definite cooling on there (bar one or two mental ones -500k for a 2 bed in Crumlin as mentioned somewhere on this forum already).

I was following a couple of properties in areas I'm interested in and they actually ended up sale agreed at 5ish per cent less than what they would have around March. But they also then appeared back for sale with auctioneera or another estate agent, so clearly the vendor didn't accept the highest offer.

Are we heading back to where we were in 2018/19 where prices remain stable but it's harder and takes longer to sell at those prices?

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649983#Comment_119649983

OK, now that there is a reputable source (I'm sure there are lots more) we can put it to bed that talks of cuts in tech area are not real. We can move on.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649917#Comment_119649917

Comments like yours make me laugh. You think it's all a secret and no one could possibly know what's being talked about in the background.

And when it does finally happen, you'll probably claim people will eventually be right when they keep saying it long enough!

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650334#Comment_119650334

I guarantee nobody here, or any of their friends, or the person down the road they know who works in IT, knows what is being talked about in the background.

The way you think this process works is a bit bizarre, as if the people making these decisions are low level staff, sitting in the canteen gossiping about it and telling their mates.

AySeeDoubleYeh

awec, have you ever worked for a large multinational that employs hundreds of tech staff?

I agree that you'd be wise to take anecdotal stories with a generous pinch of salt, but suggesting that you can guarantee that nobody could know this is honestly a little naive, in terms of how tech staff operate. They have their own dedicated forums where they discuss some of this stuff. And I don't have any insight as I am not part of a tech team, but i have been told, more than once, by staff who do work in this area of layoffs in companies before the info was public. The prevalence of highly paid contractor work in this area has created a community of people who share info very openly with each other.

Again, I would not take that poster's comment as gospel or anything like it, but you should not be speaking so definitively about something you very clearly are not well-informed enough to comment on in those terms.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650386#Comment_119650386

I work for a multinational company with hundreds of tech staff. Of course there is always internal gossip, but it's just that, gossip and guesswork. The economy is looking bad, so there must be layoffs coming, etc etc.

I guarantee you, nobody knows of layoffs. The people who work in the HR departments in Dublin won't even know about layoffs until they are imminent. The people who make the decisions about layoffs, who gets cut and where, are far higher up the food chain.

I have been through numerous rounds of layoffs before, I know how it works.

Will there be layoffs? Probably. But anyone suggesting they've heard there will be is bullshitting you. Everyone is just guessing.

We are getting into university recruitment time now in the tech world, and unfortunately from where I am it is full steam ahead (unfortunately because recruitment is an incredibly mundane and boring process).