Softening house market?

AySeeDoubleYeh

We can agree on the mundanity of recruitment, if nothing else!

As for the rest of your post - I'd typed out a longer response but suffice it to say that it has been experientially the opposite for me. And I think you would be surprised about how often this type of news leaks (hint - it's more than the never you seem to think it is.)

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650355#Comment_119650355

You don't think these conversations trickle down?

Zuckerberg literally mailed the whole company and said a lot of the employees shouldn't even be working for Facebook!

The staff on the ground hear news from their managers who hear it from their managers all the way up the chain.

I was an employee in a Corp many years ago where there was word going through the company of a major employee announcement in the next day. It was all over the canteen floor, something you say is not possible. It was easy put two and two together to know it was job cuts.

Next day official announcement and the share price bounced 8%.

No one is claiming the low level staff are the decision makers. But executives don't just turn up one morning and decide to cut 10% of staff. Its something that's in the works for months with many other cutting measures such as freezes, business travel cuts, nights out, bonuses, re orgs done before hand. Job cuts are the last resort and the work to decide who gets cut or how many is done long in advance of an announcement.

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650523#Comment_119650523

have you moved out of that rental property with terrible landlord yet?

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650606#Comment_119650606

What has that got to do with his post? His post is perfectly correct. People in large organisations generally know when things are on the up, or when things are starting to wind down. Even if they aren't involved in the actual meetings. You might not know in advance that you are going to be cut, but you might have an idea that people in your section are going to be affected. Budgets are restricted and simple things like vacant positions delayed being filled start to happen. That's the first stage and happens usually a bit in advance of there being an official "hiring freeze". I even remember the local management in a large organisation I worked years ago telling us when we were interviewing people that we probably wouldn't be able to hire them before the hiring freeze came in. It hadn't been officially announced at that time but the management knew it was coming.

Positions that need to be filled urgently might be filled with a temporary contractor rather than taking on another staff member. You might see an influx of "management consultants" coming in to do a "report" etc.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650523#Comment_119650523

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650674#Comment_119650674

You are both missing the point, what you are saying is still all entirely speculation and conjecture.

"They didn't fill Bob's position when he left last month, there must be layoffs coming."

The next day over dinner with the neighbours it becomes "yea, one of the lads on our team left and they didn't backfill, so I think there's going to be layoffs."

Then that neighbour talks to his mate, who works in IT. "Our neighbour works for X, they think layoffs are coming".

And suddenly, that IT worker posts on boards.ie property forum, "I hear there are layoffs coming in tech companies".

Someone else reads it on boards.ie, and tells their mate. "I hear tech companies are planning layoffs!"

And then that other person comes back to boards. "Yea, I also heard there are going to be layoffs! Things are absolutely terrible!"

It's a big game of whispers. It's the 2022 version of "I heard all the MNCs are going to let their employees move anywhere they want, and they're all going to leave Ireland."

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650674#Comment_119650674

Its a question for the other user, needs to answered

i quoted their post so they would see it

Why do you care?

Claw Hammer

All of this talk about the tech sector is not pertinent to this topic. It is specul;ation about what might happen in a sector which may have implications in the future for the property market. As to what is going on in the market I note that Bidxq1 have 11 pages of properties for next weeks auctions. many of the properties are headed "new pricing" and many have been up for auction before. Given that traditionally most B1dx1 properties exceeded their guide price at auction it seems they are meeting resistance on the market and the "wall of money" chasing property is not a high as before. The majority of properties are repos but i note that some are not. Vendors are just trying to get properties away rather than engage in the traditional method of selling.

alwald

Some posters here want property prices to fall at all cost that they even believe in speculation(s) about future layoffs.

Will a recession/layoff happen next year? I don't know and anyone who says they know is literally fooling themselves.

Will a recession next year impact the housing market in Ireland? There is a housing shortage and prices for both buying or renting are high. Any price reduction will result in a pause/stop of new houses to be built which will impact further the housing crisis.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651098#Comment_119651098

There is going to be a bloodbath for SMEs this year in this country, look at consumer confidence, Interest rates, Energy costs, Food costs (general inflation), VAT going back up from 9%, the payments holiday for businesses finishing, Covid supports finished and an increase in the minimum wage that will have other knock on effects on costs of labour. This is before we even mention the condition of the UK (just gone into recession), The US (in a technical recession) and Germany and the issues it is facing. Those 3 countries alone impact out countries finances and fortunes just as much as those of us (both businesses and employees) working and doing business here. There is enough there to suggest there is going to be plenty of lay offs within the next 6/12 months.

alwald

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651123#Comment_119651123

As I said in my post I don't know if a recession/layoffs will happen or not. What I know is that increasing supply is necessary to resolve the housing crisis, and a recession/layoffs will further impact the housing crisis and supply.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651156#Comment_119651156

Well supply is ticking up on myhome and daft still a long way off what is needed having said that lots of younger people will not be hanging around in this country working for high rents and no chance of buying and with the likes of Canada, US and Oz all seeing house prices tumbling they may feel their fortunes would be better served leaving. So if that happens in great numbers and supply keeps going up and emigration starts reversing we may well see some impact on house prices.

alwald

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651190#Comment_119651190

So further speculations from your side regarding emigration, and an exodus of young Irish people, to countries either in recession or technical recession (according to your previous post) with massive layoffs.

zebedy45

Wondering what would it take for new builds to drop in price? I presume this would be a last resort for developers and they would want to maintain a precedence of rising prices each time there is a new phase for sale. And any change to the steady climb in prices would be like an admission of a change in the market.

Would a reduction in prices of new builds be the last thing to drop? And therefore likely to be a long time yet. As things like the second hand market not selling, drop in prices, a period of recession, layoffs, would have to happen first..

Or in a situation of a new phase not selling would the developer have a need to drop prices quickly in order to meet a payment of the financing of the build.

AySeeDoubleYeh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651396#Comment_119651396

Had a development in Wicklow reach out to me this week - stressing that all houses in the development will be HTB, and asking whether I would be willing to purchase of plans or whether I'd want to wait for a show-house first. They're also asking you to specify your exact budget. Maybe others have experienced this, but for me it was a first - and i've registered for more than I care to remember!

zebedy45

I get a sense that developers certainly have more urgency in trying to sell before rising interest rates affect people's budgets any more.

It seems there is a bit of a change to selling before completion. Whereas from my experience developers were holding off until it was fully completed, which complemented the rising prices nicely.

After a delays in a release I was told it would be much better for me to have a show room to view rather than buy off plans. Which is true in some ways. But then again most new builds are an exact copy of each other so it's not difficult to get an idea of what the latest development will be like. Especially when it's the same developer!

I feel like new builds prices will remain stubbornly high even if the second hand market drops

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651473#Comment_119651473

Pretty much every single new build bought the past decade has been sold before the house was built. The majority of people view a show house, then buy off plans based on the show house.

Some very brave people buy before seeing a show house!

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651495#Comment_119651495

I know of 2 people in 2019 who blindly went sale agreed off plans - I thought it was madness. Last time I heard of people doing that was 06.

That people are no longer buying pre-showhouse is not exactly indicative of a slowdown, just that the weird panic between 19 and 21 has abated somewhat. The market is still strong (for now)

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651223#Comment_119651223

It's what is being reported. I mean you have to sit back and look at it logically I know if I was that age and no chance of owning a house and paying about half of my pay if not more on rent I would be gone. As for the the recession the US say they are in a technical recession. A recession is when growth is negative for 2 consecutive quarters. This has happened in the US and the UK are waiting for Septembers figures which by all accounts will be worse than the previous (negative growth) quarter. The reason the label technical is being put on it is so far is the wave of unemployment that normally happens with a recession has not followed YET but there are reports that companies are hitting the wall in the UK at a much increased rate .

https://theliberal.ie/new-survey-reveals-that-7-out-of-10-people-in-the-18-24-age-range-are-considering-leaving-ireland-due-to-rip-off-costs/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/16/companies-declared-insolvent-in-england-and-wales-jump-by-43

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651520#Comment_119651520

It happened quite a lot, probably in most developments over the past decade.

I think in a lot of cases though you had to be in-the-know to get offered the chance.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651098#Comment_119651098

Future layoffs like this one?

https://www.ft.com/content/59134aaa-6ae2-4940-86ab-bf6e2fdc41bd

People losing their jobs is not the only possible negative scenario.

Galwayhurl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651414#Comment_119651414

Which estate is this?

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650168#Comment_119650168

Auctioneera is a bit of a joke site in that all you need to register to make a bid is an email address.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651575#Comment_119651575

The 7 out of 10 is rubbish. That would mean students leaving before college courses are complete. There is a huge pent up demand for travel my son came back after being away for o er four years. Where he went back working there is 2-3 staff a bit younger than him thing of going travelling for a year or so. A friend he went to school is going with his girlfriend they are leaving the 27th to go to Australia for 12-18 months. They got a leave of absence.

You can get any result you like from a survey by loading the way you ask the questions.

If you asked any single person in Ireland.

''would you consider leaving because of the cost of living''

Nearly everyone would say yes. Consideri g and doing it are two different things.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652936#Comment_119652936

dont shoot the messenger it is a sample size it could be lower it could be higher. But what you have to do is put yourself in their shoes would you hang around here with little chance of ever owning your own house if you stay or would you emigrate live, save with a higher possibility of owning your own house.

HerrKuehn

I wouldn't be as dismissive of some of the anecdotal "evidence" of layoffs in the tech industry as some in here. It is certainly the case that there will be some sort of economic contraction here and abroad. The tech industry is important as it is more vulnerable to economic issues in the US. It also provides a lot of the high salary jobs in Ireland. The share options received by tech industry employees probably make up a far bit of deposits.

There are certainly headwinds for the property sector in Ireland, increased costs, rising interest rates, inflation causing reduced spending in the economy etc. It is the most uncertain time for the property market in the last 10 years and I wouldn't like to be making a decision about purchasing now.

markodaly

Exactly 20,000 houses/sites for sale on daft.ie at the moment, so it looks like the 20k barrier is broken.

The question now, will the trend increase over the coming Autumn and winter or will new stock slow down given uncertainty in the world economy?

IWW2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119656484#Comment_119656484

Things are going to get ugly soon. Im expecting numbers to rise, but wont matter, no one will be buying.

SummerK

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119656570#Comment_119656570

I think people will continue to buy if priced reasonably (if et all it makes sense these days) but there might not be a crazy bidding war. You never know as there could be another wave of QE which I don't think may happen but...

kaymin

A neighbour of a friend was speaking with an estate agent about putting her apartment up for sale. She was told if she had put it on the market 4 months ago it would sell fairly quickly for 270-280k. Now, she was told it will take 4+ months and probably sell for between 250-260k

markodaly

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2022/09/24/house-price-growth-in-dublin-slows-significantly-amid-increased-supply-and-higher-interest-rates/

House process growth slowly and significantly in Dublin according to DNG.

Two key things to note, last quarter's growth was only 0.4% and transactions are 13% ahead of last year

More people buying now to lock in the low rates on offer?

I wonder when the banks do pass on the recent ECB increases will that severely dampen sentiment for house buyers.