Softening house market?

StevenToast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765222#Comment_119765222

Or rename the thread....

Hardening house market?

The Spider

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764083#Comment_119764083

Yes but salaries in Liverpool are half what they are in Dublin, a UX designer in Liverpool for instance will be doing well to get 35k, in Dublin it’ll be between 70 and 90k I just use that as an example, there are many other professions, UK overall salaries are way below Ireland

The Spider

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764179#Comment_119764179

More than likely keeps them out of power, like it or not the vast majority of people want to see house prices rising, over 70%of people in Ireland own their own house, they don’t want to see their primary wealth asset devalue, and a funny thing happens when people buy a house, almost instantly they want prices to rise, sure they’ll be a few who don’t,but the vast majority do

The Spider

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764927#Comment_119764927

See what I mean about when people buy a house, they instantly switch to the side of wanting property prices to increase, because no one wants negative equity, it’s hilarious everyone wants low house prices until they buy, and then boom, I hope I didn’t overpaying buy at the top, they see the prices rising and a huge sigh of relief.

Ubbquittious

Captain Paschel shoving all the throttles forward again with the new mortgage rules. No wonder so many TDs are land lords if they are able to fine tune the housing market to the extent they are

ghostofchrimbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766568#Comment_119766568

Guaranteed failure.

Taken to a logical extreme, a person sits in a one bedroom apartment "worth" one billion euros. Well that's great, except in order to fulfill some semblance of normality and the thrust toward creating a family, say, a 3 bedroom home is now "worth" 10 billion. Not going to work out.

Similarly, a family living in a family home are faced with the prospect of their children living with them to the grave because, lo and behold, the children cannot afford a billion euro apartment.

Nevermind the other direct consequences like people on the streets, students in tents, forced emigration. Nevermind the indirect consequences either. The bare fact of this doolally idea is farcical enough.

There are many ways to cut this, basically, get rich quick scheme, but in the end everyone loses, all for the sake of notional values that 99% will never realise. It's degenerative effect on society is happening in real time, right now. And what good is that paper value to most people as it is? Zero.

IWW2900

Housing market is on the way down as long as rates keep going up.

Latest news on the multiple increase is the powers showing their hand. They are trying to limit and slow down the decrease. Probably trying to keep things relatively stable over Christmas period, which is shaping up to be unstable for world economies.

Its sadly hilarious that they as usual choose to put the ordinary person in danger. But I do think this move indicates that they are expecting to see rates continue to rise. They cant simple lower rates to keep asset bubbles inflating anymore.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766568#Comment_119766568

I really dont see why people who bought a house they live in would want to see property prices rise? I understand why people do if they bought a property as an investment, that's understandable. House prices only matter if you plan on selling again soon after buying unless of course your leasing your property.

houseyhouse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766874#Comment_119766874

Were you not just talking about your fear of negative equity???

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119748302#Comment_119748302

Most private sector companies are not the public sector banks or an MNC , pay rises in the private sector will not be as widespread as people think, companies have an awful lot more to pay out for the day to day running of companies and payrises for the foreseeable in the private sector (for the majority) will not be happening

Fantana2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764290#Comment_119764290

I’m a potential second time buyer, this will not actually mean I will be able to borrow more. I was over the 20% with the potential equity on my current house already but the 3.5 was my limiting factor and this has not changed.

almostover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764286#Comment_119764286

SF will become FF of the 90s and 00s if they get into government. That much is certain. They'll resort to populism much in the same way FF did.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766652#Comment_119766652

It has nothing to do with Captain Paschal or the government. The CB is independent of government. It has been reviewing the borrowing rates for the last 8-10 months. They would have had submission's from interested parties, but whether the department of finance or government made a submission is not clear at present. However I suspect there will be an FOI request to the CB to see who did make submissions. We will have to wait and see when these are published.

byrne249

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766568#Comment_119766568

I just don't believe most people care, one way or the other, 90% of those 70% aren't moving any time soon and the prices are simply a curiosity. The idea of 'wealth' in a house should be hung out to dry after the revolution in any case :)

Ubbquittious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767355#Comment_119767355

If there was any reason to keep such a submission quiet it would have been done discreetly on a golf course or tennis club

Bluefoam

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766874#Comment_119766874

Because equity is security...

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766874#Comment_119766874

Just to point out that if house prices jump, you may be able to refinance your existing mortgage at more competitive rates (all else equal) due to a better LTV ratio. So the price can matter in that scenario

The Spider

Oh they care, prices go up people feel richer whether they sell or not, they spend more and feel happier there’s enough research on this if you Google it.

Applying this just to Ireland is silly, every economy relies on house prices rising it creates wealth, look at the gentrification of areas that were rundown to bits, the renewal of Smithfield wouldn’t have happened without rising house prices.

Wouldn’t have attracted all the trendy restauraunts, cafes, pubs etc.

you only have to look at Netflix to see the property porn programmes to know that this is global.

As to people saying oh everyone will be priced out there’s one thing they’re leaving out - inflation in the 70s a house was 5 grand tops, I have personal experience of seeing redbricks in ranelagh in the early 90s at sub 100k a pop,

I was renting a 2 bed in drumcondra for 350 a month in 1995 but my salary which was codnsidered pretty good at the time was 11grand a year I came away with 760 a month, so it’s not like house prices will rise but everybody’s wages stays the same.

Donald Trump

A simplistic thing for people to remember is that if they have borrowed 4X their wages, then their debt will accrue at four times their interest rate in terms of their salary.

i.e. take on a 4X debt and if rates go to 5%, then an amount equal to 20% of your gross salary will be accruing on your debt. If you are on 100k, borrow 400k, then at a 5% rate, the interest will be accruing at a rate of 20k per year. That would be coming out of your net salary (assuming you want to keep "ahead" of the capital)

I was checking out US rates there earlier today. The standard mortgage over there is a 30-year fixed. That's running at over 7%. It's not that long ago that you could get one almost as low as 2.5% or so.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766212#Comment_119766212

House market erection?

FWIW, not convinced there's another leg up.

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766212#Comment_119766212

Yes, new title...

Irish Central Bank Inflating The House Market?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768040#Comment_119768040

You will get a five year fixed for 5.6 %. Remember as well in the USA there is the jingle mail option. Mortgage loans in the USA are non recourse.

Obviously the lenders cannot access longterm deposits/funding at low rates. Historically there has been a large variation in there 30 years rate. That 2.5% rate was a tad above that and it was a historical low. Over a 50 year period the median would be 5% but the average a tad above that

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh

Again DT you are waffling

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768362#Comment_119768362

Stop with the BS projecting Bass. We have all come to learn that when you accuse someone else of "waffling" it simply means you just don't understand something.

You cannot point out a single thing in my post that is incorrect. Not one single thing. You may attempt to come up with some strawman, but it only yourself who waffles on here.

Cllr_Dermod_Fahy

Christopher O'Sullivan, FF TD, on the Tonight Show letting the cat out of the bag of what FF/FG want. He says loosening the lending rules will mean there is more demand. Reading between the lines, he is called out that what he means is more demand means higher prices which means higher profits for builders.

It's utterly depressing.

Not only do we need more houses, we need them to come down in price! More houses at higher prices, what a bleak thought.

The thing is that the more house prices go up, the more unequal society is. Someone who bought in 2017 has a much smaller mortgage than someone buying now yet everyone is in the same job market. And that's before you get into the situation of someone who bought 10 years ago.

A shameful situation that the housing market has become. Politicians and bankers should be ashamed of themselves.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768362#Comment_119768362

As a point of clarity only 11 states in the US allow jingle mail.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-style-jingle-mail-could-hit-canada-2017-4?r=US&IR=T

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768528#Comment_119768528

You'll be accused of waffling

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768528#Comment_119768528

While technically yes there is less likely hood even in recourse states for deficiency judgements to be sought. As well in the US you have much easier bankruptcy laws. Finally you have a flexibility option of upping and leaving everything behind and moving elsewhere and starting afresh. While technically you have the same option in the EU language is a significant barrier

Sono

I want to trade up if possible, have equity in current house, wages have increased considerably for both of us in the past 6 years.

Today’s new rules doesn’t change anything for us, if anything the houses we are in the market for might go up slightly and prices us out of the market.

We have 2 young children and saving for a move but the amount we are saving doesn’t meet the rate the house prices are increasing.

My own tuppence worth I don’t see the market softening at all unfortunately on the back of this news.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768575#Comment_119768575

I think part of the point of today was not to change anything for people like you. By buying 6 years ago you’ve essentially already had a small lotto win.

The changes were today were intended to try give FTBers some sort of a leg up to compete with those with large unearned equity gains.

Sono

That’s fair enough and I get we weren’t really the ones targeted.

We will simply have to sit this out for a while and see what happens in the next couple of years.

On a side note I thought winning the lotto would feel better!!