Softening house market?

Mad_maxx

Got a house sold in Kildare ( closed the second week of August) and there is no doubt that prices have cooled a little since

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119796004#Comment_119796004

Can you elaborate on this?

Was speaking to an EA earlier this week and she said the aggression seen during the pandemic and earlier this year is certainly gone from the market.

I guess with a bit more stock would-be buyers are not all vying for the one house in the area that is for sale.

That said, in my experience, good turn-key large detached houses that are family homes in good areas certainly do attract a lot of interest and sell well.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119796159#Comment_119796159

That's the point, my house wasn't close to turn key , not a fixer- upper but at least 30 k required to make it decent

dragonkin

I know two people with houses currently on the market, they’re getting no bids. Houses are priced reasonably imo but not even a sniff of a bidder both up over a month. In a desirable location, commuter village near good jobs. Semi-d houses built in the last 20 years or so without major work needed. EA seemed to think they’d be gone very quickly a few months back.

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119794239#Comment_119794239

I've realised I made a complete arse of the property search I did, with still some filters applied...ugh.

Just to correct the record - "Property for sale in Dublin - 4875 Results" - 200 odd increase from your post just this morning...

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119796545#Comment_119796545

so where was this and how much are the up for?

houseyhouse

It depends on the type of property, I think. We’re selling an apartment in Dublin and have multiple bidders, currently over 10% above asking. We were advised that this time of year would be fine for an apartment, but not a house aimed at families with kids, because they don’t want to move during the school year or close to Christmas.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119796185#Comment_119796185

Did you find that there was just lukewarm interest in your house, while your EA was telling ya there would be bids flying in from all sides?

combat14

Finance Ireland suspends longer term mortgage products

Responding to today's news, Brokers Ireland said the development was "worrying."

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/1026/1331539-finance-ireland-mortgages/

looks like major wobbles happening already in our mortgage lending market .. borrowers are in for a wild ride shortly by the looks of it ...

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119796671#Comment_119796671

Do you understand what you link or do you just link something you see as negative and then make a doomsday prediction off the back of it ?

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119796740#Comment_119796740

In fairness there are direct quotes in the link from a Rachel McGovern, Director of Financial Services of Brokers Ireland where she calls it a worry development, so I wouldn't classify the above comment as OTT.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119796640#Comment_119796640

Mine didn't sell for bids on open market, my tenants bought a house from a family who bought my house, local EA negotiated this triangular deal but I got 39% more for it than fifteen months earlier

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119796740#Comment_119796740

do you understand the exit of multiple banks from the mortgage market here and the removal of long term mortgage products which add much needed certainty to the consumer (e.g. first time buyers) at the present time is indeed a worrying development .. or perhaps you think it is all wonderful & rosy ..

there are no doomsday predictions we will leave that to the dr morgan kellys of this world ...

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797040#Comment_119797040

And do you understand how what is effectively a reseller like finance Ireland would need interest rates to stabilise a bit before it can profitably offer long term mortgages?

if aib , boi or avant pull their 10 year products then id worry, not finance Ireland.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797324#Comment_119797324

If they are indeed only a "reseller" then they actually shouldn't care about the rates. They would just be an middle-man between the consumer and the source of the loan.

If I'm ticketmaster and I make 2 Euro a ticket that I sell, well if the promoter puts his prices up by a tenner, I'll still get my 2 Euro for sitting in the middle. Maybe there might be less tickets sold overall, but that will be the same for all resellers and for the promoter too. The consumer will still be the one to suffer

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797355#Comment_119797355

Thats a stupid unrepresentative straw man .

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119796185#Comment_119796185

There's no value in second hand homes IMO. Looking at the Cork/Waterford market in particular. Why buy a 20 year old house that needs 30k to get it near right, when you can buy new for not much extra and get HTB on top?

Houses in the early 2000s are maybe a C energy rating. Decent, but more expensive to run in the long term with plenty of unknown issues that could crop up anytime. I expect that any large price drops will be in the second hand market, especially for those who haven't seen a lick of paint since they were built.

Personally, I'd sacrifice whatever benefits a second hand house gives for a new house with a new everything that I can just walk in to. Especially with the price of trades and materials making things prohibitively expensive.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797812#Comment_119797812

Not really. A pure reseller wouldn't retain any risk. They would only be acting as a middleman. Stabilizing rates or not would make very little difference to them

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797963#Comment_119797963

I guess a few things.

New homes are usually in poor locations, they have tiny gardens, they are in new estates that could go either way, they are sometimes in the middle of nowhere, they are often hard to get, especially in better locations.

Yes, there are certainly disadvantages to second-hand homes, but certainly, there are huge advantages to them as well.

You can do up a house over time, but you cant move a house. So location normally always wins out.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798135#Comment_119798135

I don't see the difference between homes built 15 years ago to the ones built today. The houses in estates are on the same 1/8 acre, with similar sizes. There are fewer detached houses today, but you'd want to be going back to the 90s to get a nice house, detached, nice location to see those benefits. They ain't building those anymore, so the price is through the roof, and you're still left with a 30 year old house, with 30 year old house problems.

I get what you mean though, location location. I grew up in a house where you'd see your breath on a cold morning. Never again. Underfloor heating all the way!

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798163#Comment_119798163

Well, it is a trade-off. Sure sometimes id love to be in an A2-rated home in the countryside, in the middle of nowhere but I think id go mental. So ill trade that for a house in a better location where I can walk to the pub, shop and school where my kids go to.

New homes in good locations are just as expensive if not more so then older homes, and the demand for them is very high.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797355#Comment_119797355

Binary Donald, you are thinking in binary again.

You cannot resell the ticket if you cannot source funds. The way to access funds is either through the ECB or from fund managers ( either from pension funds or investment funds)

Entities like FI if they borrow from the ECB have to have some much private funds in place. They usually need to acquire bonds for that if they cannot access this bond funding they cannot borrow from the ECB. They needs the right amount of bonds for both the existing and new borrowing.

If the bonds cost too much it makes the new lending too expensive that is why they had to go to nearly 4% a few weeks ago when Irish banks did not really move.

There other funding method pension and investment funds will be keeping as liquid as possible and will want serious returns on 3 or 5 year money.

Think outside the box not in binary. No tickets no 2 euro

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798713#Comment_119798713

Read my posts again Bass and see the post that they were responding to. That poster was implying that this lender not lending was irrelevant as regards providing information regarding the lending market. I merely pointed out that his argument was wrong by highlighting the inconsistency in his argument.

I gather that your post is trying say the same thing as me in verbose - unless you are somehow trying to agree with him? (You are mixing up your stuff about bonds etc. but I am instead assuming what you are trying to say)

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798899#Comment_119798899

You pointed nothing out to be fair, if you think your straw man invalidated anything i said you are mistaken.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797963#Comment_119797963

You will find most new homes come with a hefty premium to be paid and this is mainly down to the developers gobbling up the extras from supports like FTB and other goodies from the government. Sure watch we will see prices stay fairly stable till the start of next year and then prices will increase with the new lending rules as once again any leeway given to buyers the developers thinks its open season for them to take this money.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798996#Comment_119798996

oke doke.

All lenders have access to the capital markets for funding. If you want to state that there is no change in the markets, then why is that reseller not selling any more of those products? What is the change specific to them that you think affects only them and not other parties?

I only used the ticketmaster example as a toy example to try to explain it to you.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799107#Comment_119799107

True, but the houses are built to higher standards than 15 years ago. I know BER can be dodgy, but you can feel the difference in a new house that can hold heat for days. Heat pumps aren't cheap nor is the installation.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799191#Comment_119799191

Some are built to a higher standard some are not and your also paying for that BER rating/heat pump for a new house

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799187#Comment_119799187

If you don't understand the difference between finance ireland (a non bank lender) and a bank then there isnt a toy example simple enough for you.

To turn your question on its head, if the change wasn't specific to them and affected all parties why arent they all removing their 10 year products?

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799258#Comment_119799258

They are the first to pull; likely as a result of difficulty swapping that risk on the market.

Some of the others may be able to self-hedge to an extent or absorb some of the higher cost. And they would have better networks for any OTC stuff. Swap C/Ps might be pricing in a large credit risk to any transaction with them too. That is one component that would be specific to them, but that in itself is almost a proxy for the health of the market (unless they have been doing something wrong)

Regardless, if you assert that they are pulling their products due to IR volatility then it is likely a reflection on overall market conditions. Whether those conditions turn out to be long term or short term is a different matter. But all market participants will be hit by them to some extent