What Will happen when Generation Rent Retire?

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119070348#Comment_119070348

I really think this is a factor. At the same time they compare that their parents etc could buy in the 80’s. Not mentioning often that they bought the house and have no furniture for 5 years only a mattress on the floor and an old couch and a rented TV if they were lucky. No holidays. No takeaways. No subscriptions. No gym memberships. No Amazon deliveries. No Next clothing deliveries.

A big reality that needs to be faced is that you may not be able to choose where you live and your salary will choose it.

I know the above doesn’t apply to everyone. And I am lucky to have been handed an education and assistance from my parents so talk is cheap. But the county is awash with money. All you have to do is look at the pubs in big cities on a Saturday night, the Chinese takeaways on a Friday evening, the hotel bars at Sunday lunchtime.

oceanman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119088172#Comment_119088172

you obviously didnt take any time to think out your overly simplistic solution....what do you think will happen the price of houses when everyone upskills to better paying jobs?.....you are just taking a bad situation and making it worse.

This is done by design to keep a subscription model, keep people renting, no ownership. That means the owners like goverments, big coperations, REITs, pension funds, keep a steady profit coming in with rents and also they own the underlying asset, which value is high due to scarcity in houses.

To compare now with the 80s is riduclous, totally different time, little to no immigration, people had families early like 20s, fertility rate was high, councils were building houses so young couples would have got their own house, none of this housesharing nonsense. And even though they didnt have the entertainments of today, the communites were much stronger because people went out and talked to each other, they went to the pub more so then than today but I think it was more for the social aspect instead of getting hammered drunk.

Today, the fertility rate is low, people having children in their 30s if at all, immigration is high, house sharing is high, even people sharing rooms in places like Dublin is common. House building is dependent on the private sector, jobs are more high tech and can be more stressful, which is probably why alot of this entertainment stuff is todo with people destressing. Personally I would prefer live in more simpler times.

Now you have a stiuation where the older people who own a house, is wealthy just simply by owning a house, in places like dublin they could rent out a room and earn the equivalent of a part time salary for doing it.

Esse85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119096785#Comment_119096785

Everyone won't tho, will they?

Why worry about absolute terms like you're doing, it's as ridiculous as saying, "what if everyone goes to Tesco at the same time to do their shopping and theres no food left".

oceanman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119097219#Comment_119097219

im just pointing out that your so called solution wouldnt work even by chance everyone did adopt it....all it would do is drive house prices higher.

Esse85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119097788#Comment_119097788

It will work for anyone looking to increase their wage.

Everyone wants to increase their wage the same way everyone wants to be fit and healthy, however again that takes effort and discipline, which means it rules out the vast majority who desire an outcome but won't take action to achieve it.

Yurt2

Avacado Toast

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119098146#Comment_119098146

Avacado Toast can seem an easy reply. It show a lazy attitude. There is never an easy solution. At present their average house in Ireland costs 280k. The average full-time worker earns nearly 49k. That would suggest that the average working couple can easily buy the average house.

However we all make choices. Those choices determine how we live. But many people want an easy life. They often want a lifestyle they cannot afford.

Dublin is a capital city. Capital cities are expensive to live in. On the outskirts of other large urban centers in Ireland other than Dublin housing is from affordable to very affordable. But a lot of people want that life where you are near everything from concerts, matches, and an airport to where you can go anywhere. But so do many people. This put pressure on prices. Those that make the most effort are those that can afford to live there.

There is choices but if the attitude is that any change is Avacado Toast then it as easy excuse

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099450#Comment_119099450

Quoting the 'average salary' is so gilb to be almost meaningless. There's a long running thread on another part of boards that picks apart this in granular detail.

But here's a wee primer: the last statistical release from CSO that gives distributed earnings at a household level (released 2019), had it that just 14 percent of households gave a gross income of 100k. We don't have up to date figures but let's be extremely generous and say it's 20 percent now (it's likely not).

You say that the 'average couple' can easily afford 'the average' house. The reality is, it's about 1 in 5 households can afford the 'average house' in the current market. That's not even accounting for regional variations and where people are at in their career cycle.

Crudely speaking, 4 out of 5 households, should they be in the market for a house and had they not a property to leverage for a higher mortgage (this is an important qualifier), could not afford 'the average house'.

So for all the sanctimony about choices, people doing the avacado toast and Netflix posting, what are the vast vast majority on the lower end of the income distribution (and it's not actually that low all things considered) supposed to do? Sit and swivel?

There's a genuine structural problem at play that needs addressing, and a slow motion societal car crash underway, and it has very little to do with Amazon Prime or Ryanair city breaks. The sooner the body politic and the home and hosed section of society reconcile themselves with this the better. Because we're all going to end up paying a heavy price for this in 20-30 years, if you're a home owner or not.

riclad

I think you spend maybe 2 or 3 days a week working on the house you move in when the house is finished I m not saying it suits everyone the point is you get the house cheap you are not paying 300k plus the program is on YouTube grand designs it's about 15 years old the houses are built to standard build regs and there's qualified experts on site to help with specific things like doors roofs etc. It would be like a basic experiment project just to see is it viable does it help people on low income to buy a house

Eg start off with 20 to 30 houses on council owned land

Obviously it would need young people who are fit and maybe with a interest in DIY

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099716#Comment_119099716

People on the lower end of the income spectrum just don't earn enough to purchase a property. I don't think you will ever have a situation where the majority of people can buy homes.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119100732#Comment_119100732

Again, gilb.

My point was illustrative of the scale of the problem. The other poster was making a blithe point about the average Joe being able to afford the average house so everything is tickety-boo and it's an attitude and Netflix issue.

A cursory look at the facts is that that it's bullsh*t. When 4 out of every 5 households would struggle to get a mortgage based on income (again note my qualification in the post), we have a deep problem that extends far into the middle class and middle of the income distribution. These are the people that hold up the economy and in previous decades had no issue in aspiring to home owneship. We actually want this cohort of people to be able to reasonably access affordable housing for a whole host of reasons economically.

Again, I'll reiterate, prepare yourself for the next 20 years or so when the effects of collapsing homeownership really begins to bite. You may not think it's not your problem, but it's coming to everyone's door like it or not.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101078#Comment_119101078

Houses are much higher spec than the concrete boxes that were built in the 80's. Building a house currently is also quite labour intensive. Unfortunately the type of skilled labour you need to build a house or apartment is also paid significantly more than average. I think the state should look at reducing development costs overall, rather than a certain percentage of affordable homes which only benefit the chosen ones.

In 20 years time it will be up to the state to house retirees who cannot house themselves. I am preparing for my situation as best as I can. I am not responsible for others. It certainly wasn't my decision to have completely unfunded PS and state pensions.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102075#Comment_119102075

It will most certainly come to your door via higher taxtation and the state pension system will probably come into question. Don't count on that that provision being there for you like it is for pensioners now at the levels we have now.

You can shrug your shoulders now by all means, but you don't have the benefit of saying you weren't told.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102109#Comment_119102109

Yep. Here in the UK, over 95% of pensioners own their own home outright. Today's generation rent will collapse that system if it's not radically changed when they get older and they'll likely be catered to by multiple parties because older people do actually vote.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102131#Comment_119102131

I don't think people realise the demographic and economic jackpot that current pensioners enjoy*. The population pyramid was and is utterly to their favour; if they bought property in the 70s or 80s and had a fixed interest rate mortgage they made off like utter bandits with house price appreciation from the 90s to early 2000s; even if they didn't have fixed rate, if they rode out the interest rate hikes of the 80s, wage inflation largely nullified the negative effects;

A political decision was by in large made to insulate them from the worst effects of the GFC and the price was exacted on the young; and they'll live out their golden years on the back of Bertie era pension auction politics.

*I'm not saying this generation didn't work hard, but they are in many respects an incredibly fortuitous generation the manner in which a lot of macro economic dumb luck and political sacred cow policies shaped their prospects for the better. The picture for prime age workers now is a lot less pretty, and it has fanny all to do with Netflix subscriptions.

Dial Hard

I hate this "If you just sacrificed absolutely everything in your life for 10+ years, you'd be able to buy a house" nonsense.

I'm 40 and earn a pretty good salary. I'm also single, and renting. Those two things mean I am never going to be in a position to buy a house. Cancelling my (shared) Netflix subscription and subsisting on beans on toast isn't going to change that.

The fact is that unless you're lucky enough to have parents that will give you a massive leg-up in the form of the guts of a deposit or allowing you to live at home completely rent-free for years, this "Just pull yourself up by your own bootstraps like I did" nonsense simply doesn't apply to the vast majority of single people, and I suspect many couples too.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102109#Comment_119102109

I don't need you to tell me that, but fundamentally the housing situation of lower income groups is not something I have any control over since I neither work for the state nor am involved in housing provision. I think it would be good if we could take a long term view here, but the electorate only thinks short term. During the bubble we had the option of increased PS pay/take people out of the tax net OR long term investment in infrastructure. Of course we went with the short term option and we always do that. The event that changed my mind was the water charges protest, I just realised that we will never have a country where we invest for the long term.

So, given that I am not in any position to change someone else's situation, I can only really look at potential risks to my own. If we have higher taxes, I can move abroad and work remotely. I assume there will be some change to the state pension, so I am not expecting to get it, it will be a bonus if I do.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102219#Comment_119102219

Single people are getting absolutely steamrollered in the current housing set-up. I do feel for people in that position. And for whatever good it'll do, any positive state intervention will be conceived, designed and implemented with the traditional family unit prioritised first, second and last.

MakersMark

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102214#Comment_119102214

Not too late for you to work hard my friend!

I've worked hard my whole life, lost nearly everything in 2009 and worked my way back up to where I'm in a very strong position. Not luck.

I dont buy Starbucks or €8 pints.

I see generation X,Y,Z all maxed out on loans for cars they can't afford, €1300 phones and covered in the latest fast fashion, not to mention going on multiple holidays to impress their Instagram mates.

You cant have it all.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102262#Comment_119102262

I work plenty hard "my friend", not fond of the drink and am not a coffee drinker.

Your post was pointless.

You're also oblivious to my housing situation or what my station is in life (I'm a homeowner if it pleases you to know), I'm making points based on cold hard facts about where we are and are heading with housing on a macro level.

Starbucks, Netflix, Amazon, Tenerife or the smile on a dog's face have f*ckall to do with it.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102219#Comment_119102219

By 40 you should have a decent amount put by, you have had half your working life already pretty much. It is much easier to save when you are younger as you might be willing to put up with house shares etc. Some people find saving a lot easier than others. You certainly don't need to have parents give you a leg up for feck sake.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102320#Comment_119102320

Reality check: I don't know his circumstances, but if he's 40 he's of the age where his earning potential was severely impacted by the GFC.

He's single, and on the crude 'average house' metric that people are fond of peddling he'll need to be earning close to 100k to be extended a mortgage in an urban area, and definitely Dublin.

That's approx. 3-4 percent of the population that have an income of over 100k. I don't know if he's earning anything close to that, but I'll take it that he's not, and he shouldn't have to be to reasonably expect that a secure sustainable housing situation is within his grasp.

He's swimming against the current and no amount of patronising posts about Sunday brunch will change that fact under the current housing dispensation.

Your posts are laced with sanctimony and a profound ignorance of economic reality.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102411#Comment_119102411

I didn't mention anything about brunch or coffee. I think we need to drill the idea into people's heads that when you finish education, the clock is ticking to retirement, you need to start accumulating, becoming better off year on year. So, although his earnings may have been affected by the GFC, he will also have had the bubble time (I am only a year older). The fact is that you can have 2 people, both earning the same, one with a saving mentality and the other living month to month, wait 10 years and there will be a huge difference in their living standards.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102258#Comment_119102258

That's where I am. It's horrible. I feel like I obeyed all the rules in that I worked hard, got a good job with a great University, avoided drugs and the like and managed to just under double my salary in ten years. My reward is housesharing so I may as well have not bothered.

I read the other day that UK house prices jumped by over two grand last year. The received wisdom from NIMBY's and conservatives is that we don't buy avocadoes and ditch Netflix but that makes sod all difference as house prices outpace both wage increases where they exist and inflation.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102443#Comment_119102443

Newsflash: Depending on his p.a. earnings, he could have a 30 or 40 percent deposit saved and still not be extended a mortgage in current market conditions, and will likely find himself outbid at every turn even if he did. I know several single people in this position on solid money (and because of their jobs, no, they can't move to the sticks).

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119078735#Comment_119078735

maybe they’ll have to, when the government want to CPO that house in Whitehall, 100,000 offered and a one or two bedroom apartment in Balbriggan…that some pensioner just died in.

immigration is at runaway levels.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-plfp/populationandlabourforceprojections2017-2051/populationprojectionsresults/

NOBODY who can address this crisis is about to or wants to.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102480#Comment_119102480

If he has 30-40% deposit, which is certainly doable over 18 years saving, then he is in a good position. He might not be able to afford an average house as he has below average household income I assume. He can borrow 3.5 times income and use his savings, this should be enough for an apartment even if it isn't in his preferred area.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102522#Comment_119102522

Do you know how much he earns? how much he has saved? How much he is expending on rent each month? What his job is and does he need to live in realistic proximity to it in an emergency? (I'm thinking of healthcare workers here).

You're slyly floating the idea that he's feckless and it's his problem and his problem alone. When really, if you wake up and smell the coffee, this is a society-wide and country-wide macro crisis that will balls-up the state in the next couple of decades.

It would be easier to post "I don't give a sh*t, I've got mine" and be done with it, because that's all your posts are really saying, reformulated for each reply.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102594#Comment_119102594

What do you think the solution is? Realistically we can either have a state where people pay high taxes and the state provides more in the way of services including housing OR we can have a situation, like now, where we have a million outside the income tax net and the state provides rubbish services. What we can't have is so many people contributing nothing in taxes AND the state providing much better services IMO.

I have no idea what the guy's situation is, but ultimately he is responsible for it. I have no control over what someone else does or does not. I have contributed a lot to the state over the years and gotten very little in return for it.