Property predictions best guess

gandalf

Tbh my one piece of advice would be to just get on with it.

I was renting then moved back home but kicked the idea around for years before taking the decision to buy. One of my parents died so I was in a good position because of inheritance so my mortgage was around 50% when I bought an apartment in 2006. It's value went down by 60% during the worst of the crash but because my mortgage was small my monthly repayment was a fraction of what some of my friends were paying in rent.

Since I moved into the apartment met the girl of my dreams, got married and started a family and in 2019 we sold the apartment and moved to a house that has increased price by nearly 20%. Again because we had a large amount of equity in the apartment the mortgage is sub 60% and is for 20 years but less than half the current rental rates.

Again this is my story and I was in a privileged position of having money to invest. My rules for looking at a place would be.

1. Pick a location that suits you. For me it was along the M50 southside either inside or outside, ended up slightly outside. Be flexible but don't end up in the boonies like some of my mates did.

2. Do up a list of must haves and nice to haves and think clearly on the items that you are prepared to compromise on. Try to be unemotional when looking at a place and ensure you have the name of a good surveyor/structural engineering in advance of finding a place your interested in.

3. Don't watch the price of your property. It's a home first and you will probably be in a position of paying less than rent for the near to mid future based on what has happened in the rental market.

4. Mortgages can be a f**kin nightmare use a broker and get them to do the footwork in finding you the best deals. I got diagnosed with chronic illness in the middle of the purchasing process for the house and nearly lost the mortgage and the house because I couldn't get mortgage life assurance cover. Luckily I had a policy through work and an old policy from the previous mortgage that I could increase. If you have any health condition do the groundwork on that first.

5. Nike, just do it. You will always find a reason to delay buying but in reality getting a place of your own is rewarding and provides stability that renter's don't have. I had the option to buy a place in my early twenties quite a number of years ago, I decided to buy a car instead and to this day it's the biggest regret of my life. I'd probably be mortgage free now.

At the end of the day we can't control what happens with geopolitics, financial policies etc and whilst you should consider them you should not let it put you off taking the next step. Anyway good luck with whatever decision you make.

Meeoow

I can't see prices dropping. Even with interest rates rising, it just means that working people won't get a mortgage. But councils and vulture funds are still buying up property.

Unfortunately, I think that we are the last generation who will own our homes. It'll be long term renting for most.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119093018#Comment_119093018

...unless theres major social and political upheaval, the situation wont change

Padre_Pio

How much does a house cost in terms of materials and labour?

If prices were to drop considerably, what would cause material or labour prices to drop? Or would houses just have less features and worse build quality?

Looking at standard 3 and 4 bed semis with heat pumps, underfloor, 6 inch insulation etc, wouldn't the standard drop if prices did?

Or would developers be happy making less money for the same product?

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119086074#Comment_119086074

Its kind of amazing that you've written all of this and come to the conclusion prices will go down. You've pretty much written an essay on why we'll never meet our supply needs!

iColdFusion

House prices not likely to drop for the next 3 years, some of the mad bidding may die off but the reality is its only people with good secure jobs that are buying these days and they won't get majorly hit by a recession

House build prices still spiraling so likely building will slow as there aren't that many people that can afford a new 3bed semi that's 360 now compared to 310 a few years ago, less new builds means more 2nd hand demand keeping prices high.

Interest rates are rising already so I'd buy now if you can OP and lock in at decent fixed rate, I'm guessing you are single so you have alot more options than most and should be able to avoid bidding against families.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119093090#Comment_119093090

financial beneficiaries of property are generally reluctant to take a hit, hence the 'need' for policies such as bailouts etc, so.....

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085051#Comment_119085051

This is probably the best post on here amid all the rubbish.

The big picture is that land is finite, that the NDP talks about intensification of usage, that the climate change demands require public transport which means denser housing as well. So like this poster says, steer clear of one-bed apartments, because there will be lots more of them built.

If you can afford one, a three or four-bed semi with a garden, somewhere with public transport (look along the Maynooth line or the Cork line from Dublin) is the way to go. Regardless of what happens to the market generally, they will hold their prices relative to everything else.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119093414#Comment_119093414

...what happens if you have no wish, want or need to be living anywhere near dublin?

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119093419#Comment_119093419

The same advice stands. Buy somewhere that people want to live.

Somewhere that's commuting distance to a city or large town and has good PT links.

People are buying houses in the back arse of nowhere because they can't afford to buy closer to a city. That's all well and good, but if property prices take a dive, then these people will have a limited market if they choose to sell.

Same happened in the last recession. Dubs persuaded to buy in Longford (only 90mins commute!) Then the recession hit and sure only people from Longford want to buy a house in Longford.

Cluedo Monopoly

"Sitting on the sidelines, cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit suicide because frankly the only thing that motivates me is being able to actively change something".

Bertie Ahern 2007

Ahern apologises for suicide remark (rte.ie)

Edit, I found a thread on Bertie's comment from 2007. It has some interesting responses.

Ahern disgraces himself with ''suicide'' comment — boards.ie - Now Ye're Talkin'

"Bertie is fantastic, the economy is in great shape, anyone disagreeing is just sour grapes because Bertie is still in charge - ie Fine Gael supporters, seriously lads get over it, you will have another opportunity in five or six years"

GardenLady

Tell me what you all consider high home costs in Ireland (I'm in the US). What about the greater Dublin area vs other parts of the Republic--Cobh, Killarney, Waterford, Cashel, etc.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119093776#Comment_119093776

average house prices are now roughly 10 times the average industrial wage, this varies a bit from region to region though

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119093776#Comment_119093776

Honestly it varies wildly. Seems like Dublin is off the charts.

I saw these beauties on daft: https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/nephin-road-nephin-road-dublin-7-dublin-7/3620653

I get that they're big houses, but €800k for a house in the ghetto sounds like madness. Walking distance from Cabra garda station and bogie park.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119094284#Comment_119094284

That area has become quite gentrified.

riclad

If you were to buy now think will I be able to pay the loan if interest rates go to 5 per cent, 1 per cent rise equals 30 per cent approx rise in monthly mortage cost I know people who bought in 2006 who are still in negative equity, yes if inflation continues we may go into recession. I think prices might stay as they are, as there is high pent up demand. I think if you live in a city only people on 40k plus will have a chance of buying property. Or maybe people on lower incomes who have acess to local authority homes. No one knows how bad inflation will get, or how long it will take to normalise the supply chain crisis. Oil is now 100 dollars plus, i think we have 10 years left of oil, eg country's like saudia Arabia will run out of oil. Eg oil that is easily acessable by the drilling methods we use now. So I think oil will probably stay at 90 to 100 dollars No one gets a free house. They pay rent based on annual income. We need to build maybe 30k houses , we are building 5k houses a year. Other EU countrys simply build 20 storey apartments blocks to provide supply of affordable housing for middle income, or lower income workers. its cheaper and it reduces traffic and its more energy effecient than building 3bed houses near city's. Houses will remain expensive , there's a limited no of sites to build on where you can build houses near city's.

Xidu

Of course at some point house price will crash and dip like **** for a short term.

it’s a cycle for every 20-30 years.

just like stock market

but nobody can timing when it will happen and how much it will crash and how long it will last.

because governments will interfere in different ways based on the situations

if you have living demand then buy based on your affordability.

because if you hold n wait it could go up n up for years and you will have to pay 15-25k rent per year. Adding that rent you paid it would be the same.

unless you live in your parents house that’s another story.

If u wanna invest then no it’s not a good time.

Xidu

How many people has left Ireland vs how many immigrants?

we need to look at the inflow vs outflow.

i remember back in 2014 the population was 4m? Now almost 5m?

but honestly look the bright sight, if the immigrations brought up the tax income for government it’s good for the whole country. But the government needs to spend those money wisely.

Xidu

Also based on some data. When interest rate goes up 1%, your affordability is less 10%

means if you were able to buy a house at 100k, when interest rate goes up 1%, you can only afford a 90k house.

so even house prices drop, interest rate up, if you are not a cash buyer. Your budget will have to be cut down.

unless you are holding 500k cash and ready to invest. Then definitely worth to wait.

Padre_Pio

There's really little alternative to buying a house, given how broken the renting sector is.

What are your choices? Fight 300 applicants and pay thousands a month for a rental property that's likely poorly kept, or buy an overpriced house and likely pay less in mortgage repayments.

At least with buying you're a master of your own destiny. You won't get evicted, you can do what you like with the place, and regardless of any looming recession you have an asset that you can invest in.

The rental market is broken and likely won't be fixed for at least 5 years. Only a mass exodus of people or the government drastically changing tenancy laws would bring more properties onto the market. Neither is likely to happen IMO. COVID has stress-tested the labour market, so I don't think a recession will see the unemployment we've seen in the past recession, and neither this government or Sinn Fein is going to touch low income families or social welfare.

Personally I'd stay away from apartments as any developer looking to maximise profit will likely try to build thousands of them. Build or buy a one-off if you can. Everyone wants one, and planning restrictions mean there'll always be a shortage. Failing that buy in an estate in an area that has growth potential.

Piriz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119094284#Comment_119094284

i dont disagree that the property advertised is over priced but describing that area as a ghetto is just stupid and most likely you've never been there.

freemickey

Knowing that it's all one giant pyramid scheme reliant on migration and investors, I wouldn't touch it with a 20 foot barge pole.

Gonna collapse.

Easier said than done to avoid, but don't go betting on pyramid schemes, especially at it's pinnacle. Don't pull a 2008-paddy-last, only to be left holding the bucket.

hayse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119096216#Comment_119096216

99% of those immigrants are on the housing council list and on the dole. The only contribution they are making is filling up the sewers.

jo187

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119129547#Comment_119129547

Any evidence to back this up? Pretty vile comment you made.