A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

bb12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119619932#Comment_119619932

you're forgetting that they are also attacking farming here with the 2030 agenda rubbish. every livestock farmer i know are already planning to reduce flocks and herds before this winter sets in and with the new anti-farming policies being set in place, these probably won't be increased again. so agriculture won't be the saviour it was in 2008

brickster69

A few weeks ago the US energy chief sent letters to gas producers asking them to limit exports of gas or they would step in to reduce them. Mainly due to the increase in prices for US consumers that would happen and no doubt with the elections coming up.

Reported in the FT

https://www.ft.com/content/ef4fb2b8-1b28-43f3-b34f-13e98c769e63

No doubt more will come out later but does not look good for winter where far more is needed than now.

https://aw-journal.com/the-us-will-not-be-able-to-increase-the-supply-of-shale-gas-to-europe/

brickster69

Oil exports to be curbed also in the US due to lower production. There just is not enough investment going into oil and gas to increase production, who is going to invest millions in an industry where everyone is saying we want to end it for a green utopia which will come in the next decade.

Russian total oil embargo by the EU starts 6/12/2022 if that goes ahead we could easily see total carnage in the oil markets especially if Russia announce big cuts in production, which you can guarantee they will.

Darth Putin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119619939#Comment_119619939

Winter is coming 😂

brickster69

More details

https://www.newsncr.com/business/us-shale-bosses-tell-europe-theres-no-bailout-coming/

brickster69

EDF expects the corrosion problem at it's reactors to continue through 2024. Production will be less than hoped this winter with 29 billion losses expected.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1570312701003370497

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620178#Comment_119620178

Agriculture was not the "saviour" in 2008. Obviously the industry remained strong but multinationals continued to invest here too.

The biggest risk for FDI is lack of affordable housing for employees which forces massive wage inflation. The government have made a complete balls of our housing market.

I am not too concerned about data centres in Qatar either - very expensive to cool those servers in that climate.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119619879#Comment_119619879

Depressing but very true unfortunately.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119619443#Comment_119619443

Ridiculous post, history tells us inflation is not permanent, why would it be different this time around?

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620608#Comment_119620608

I don't know what you mean by this post, I never mentioned inflation in what I posted, I said food prices will never come back down to where they were as that would mean deflation in food prices which is extremely unlike given the circumstances, again hence they will plateu meaning disinflation not deflation.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620640#Comment_119620640

Apologies, I mean the food inflation. Why do you think food prices will remain high? The 1970s was the same, inflation / food prices etc went sky high, didn't last too long, or let me guess, this time it's different?

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119619644#Comment_119619644

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119619879#Comment_119619879

It might be but there is some merit in what he is saying there is going to be a blood bath for SMEs this winter/Spring 2023. I wouldnt go as far as saying they wont be able to afford social welfare but something is going to have to give. The idea that we can support our own workers and our poor and then top it up with refugees from every other country is going to come back and bite us in the a$$

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620645#Comment_119620645

Prices typically dont come down, wages instead rise.

Food prices have never been as cheap as they were pre the oil crisis in 70s.

The question is - will see enough wage inflation in the euro to bring relative food prices down? Not in the next decade I'd say, as EU industry doesnt have a good medium term outlook.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620706#Comment_119620706

So you suggest support SMEs to keep jobs ? The energy prices not gonna fall and people after paying bills not gonna buy more when prices will rising.So supporting SMEs you will simply creating zombies.Were you gonna find money for it ? Sell bonds to ECB ? ECB printing money will create more inflation.Sell to investors ? At what rate ?

If you will let SMEs die same story with unemployed.Were you gonna find money ? Sell bonds to ECB, investors?

Bring more unqualified emigrants and pay social welfare to them ? HAPs ? When only 900 houses left for rent in country? Were money gona come from ? Again,bonds,ECB printer ?

Bring taxes up ripping middle class of and making country less attractive for investors on market with unqualified labour and high energy prices ? Good Luck !

System collapsed!

PokeHerKing

The only thing we can guarantee is that some of us will thrive, some will survive and some will die.

By all means keep up to date with the wider world but trying to predict the end of days is an odd kink.

More likely to get a bang of a bus whilst posting your link to boards then witness some sort of mad max event in the western world.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620826#Comment_119620826

Not sure one thing for certain is we wont be able to borrow our way out like last time and income tax is already surpassing the law of diminishing returns with how ridiculous our welfare system is and how it competes with work. The ECB may step in and do what they did with Italy in order to create more money in the country. I have the horrible feeling that you may be right on a lot of what your saying I cant see any easy choices the can cannot be kicked down the road this time. I cannot see it collapsing entirely as even when Greece was a complete basket case and when Ireland's government continued spending money like confetti after the 08 crash and the tax based collapsed the IMF came to rescue I can see the IMF in here again at some point in the next 5 years. There will be some denial in government, for example the government will have choices to make, for example to pay public sector pay next year if they do they are digging a grave for the countries finances.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620709#Comment_119620709

You bet me too it, well answered

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620851#Comment_119620851

The IMF left too early the last time. Many of the proposed reforms were left undone. Instead of reducing the number of quangos, FG created the biggest and most expensive quango of all time (Irish Water) and then tried to privatise it!!

And despite years of a booming economy, out debt per capita ratio is highest in EU.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620845#Comment_119620845

Well there is a huge uptick in social unrest and not just here but globally and protests are starting to gain a lot of traction. The fact is people are more socially aware now than ever before with politicians not being able to hide away from the social media spotlight and everyone now understands the amount of waste our spend supports and I can only see this unrest going in an upward trajectory as inflation , high energy costs and continued spend on waste continues to exist. The government have zero wiggle room we are tied into the Euro project and facing a decimation of our tax base over the next 12/24 months and allowing a system of global welfare paid by local taxes in this country. The numbers do not stack up for it to be able to continue. Throw in the 240Billion in debt and it will not be long before the government have unfortunate decisions forced upon them by the IMF. I reckon they will be back in within 5 years.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620908#Comment_119620908

Id argue there's just more coverage. Same as weather events. Always happened but we're just being bombarded with every snippet from every corner of the globe now a days so it's causing certain personalities to obsess over it.

I could be talking pony of course and maybe you and others on here are correct and the end is nigh. Personally, I've always been fairly financially prudent/stable. But after that I'm balls to the wall enjoying life as much as I can.

Can't control much more than that in life so why stress? Unless it gives you enjoyment then have at it I suppose. Whatever floats our boat as they say.

Will be very interesting to see how will hospitality sector packed by refugees will survive this winter with cost of energy coming and shortage on cheap labour market.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620930#Comment_119620930

You say obsessed, I say it means people are better informed. People understand Ireland's open economy is impacted by external forces and when countries like the UK, Germany and the US are all struggling and going through the mill they understand that Ireland is too open to all 3 of these countries not to feel some effect. But if the Irish government and media where to be listened to and no one else. They spout out about growth (even do its lower than expected and going lower), GDP (even do its falsely skewed upwards by MNCs), and a bulging tax take (even do this has been swelled by over taxing income and a huge increase in VAT receipts from things like high energy costs) and then they can turn around on this basis and give huge public sector (including the government) pay increases further putting the foot on the neck of the tax payer.

I don't think the end is nigh by the way, I think the can of our debt that has been kicked down the road for 15 years has ran out of road. I don't think there is the political will to do what is necessary to try and turn our finances around as those in power get 5 years and its not about what's good for the country its all about what will get me re-elected come voting season. The IMF will be back in here within 5 years.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620984#Comment_119620984

I mean I'm not doubting a recession or anything but they're not rare either so I don't see why people on this thread are predicting that signs of an impending recession is a sign of the destruction of our country. Its a bizzare view imo.

The 06/07 crash didn't affect me at all. It affected half my social circle due to them all being trades. Most of them are now in similar circumstances to me, they had a tougher route here but they still got there.

War/conscription/natural disaster are the only true doomsday imo. That would suck balls on many levels.

But I think economic armageddon is unlikely, the system is controlled by humans. Why would we self destruct it? We'll just find ways to rejig it and survive as always.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621031#Comment_119621031

I think you have to understand how deep we are in. The last recession was bad and we as a country could and did borrow our way out of it. That option is not there (or it is there but it will have a very high impact on our debt and the amount we pay back with very high interest rates) . I don't think Ireland will be destroyed but I can see another long period of austerity coming down the tracks as you cannot just continue to borrow and over tax income. The other side of this is we don't know how mad Putin and if the EU continue to supply the Ukraine god knows what he might do? So for me I got through the last recession as people who had steady jobs were more or less ok with the exception of the large increases in taxation. This time I cannot see anyone escaping pain and real financial pain. Already we have hyper inflation and interest rising. A good marker for where we are will be xmas.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621067#Comment_119621067

Id agree on Putin and I put that down with war armageddon. I'm also not naive enough to think that severe energy shortages couldnt/wouldn't cause social unrest.

Its the collapse of Western democracy that some on here are proclaiming that Im questioning.

Hardships yes but cest la vie, tis a tale old as time.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620984#Comment_119620984

I wouldn't agree that the public sector pay deal is excessive even though I wouldn't give it to TDs or councillors. Inflation drives wage inflation and 7% over 2 years isn't bad considering previous cuts and minimal increases. I thought the unions would reject it to be honest.

I am seeing massive wage inflation in the tech sector due to inflation and lack of talent (housing crisis to blame somewhat). 10-20% pay increases.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621067#Comment_119621067

No. We don't have hyperinflation. You are being hyper.

In 1981 and 1982 the interest rate was 16%.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621120#Comment_119621120

It shouldn't of been given at all. It has put the government in the awkward position of giving a section of workers a pay rise and there will be an expectation in the budget now that people get tax reductions in order to help everyone else with inflation. They cannot give these rises on one hand saying ah inflation and giving their own pockets more money and then come up with temporary measures for the rest of us as its speaking out of both sides of your mouth. Inflation is either temporary or its fixed its not a case where its fixed for the public sector and temporary for everyone else. The budget that is coming if income tax is not brought down significantly I can see there being an election next year. Look the pay cuts were given due to the IMF coming in and telling us the sector was over paid and today they are 20%+ paid more (and that is before these pay rises kick in) than the private sector throw in a pension they don't fully cover and a perk most in the private sector cannot afford, it will be hard to stand over the next pay rise for the public sector next year when our tax take is decimated from SMEs hitting the wall.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621136#Comment_119621136

Well lets see what it is by the end of the current cycle.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621164#Comment_119621164

Hmmm. So before we progress, do you admit you were wrong on the hyperinflation statement?

In 1981 and 1982 the mortgage interest rate was 16%. I remember my parents struggling to pay the interest alone.