A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

rob316

Don't have much sympathy for hospitality, how many passed on the vat rate cut to the consumer? Could be going back up in the budget to 13% you can be sure that will be passed on though and before February when it's not due to rise.

Hotels can taking a running jump they have gouged the punter looking to stay for an event/concert.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119623826#Comment_119623826

Slowing down, costs are still far too high, labour shortages. The government are going to learn a hard lesson that leaving it up to the private sector was foolish, they will only build what is profitable.

amacca

Ye do understand economies of scale right?

And that larger businesses can have loss leaders and write off losses against tax etc etc....more options to absorb some costs to presrve custom etc......something your independent smaller business can't really avail of ???

I'm not saying some didn't take the piss but expecting your average Joe takeaway to keep the rises to the same degree as mc Donald's this time around is amusing tbh

Same with smaller petrol stations that have higher price....smaller tanks less frequent deliveries, they can't forward buy as far into future, you have to be somewhat reasonable.....

Danye

Slowing down or the arse completely falling out of it?

I’m hearing that of jobs scheduled to start early to mid 2023 being postponed or even cancelled. Now as I said, I’m hearing these things.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119623826#Comment_119623826

I reckon there is another 4 to 6 months of people who have agreed deals but there will be some of that who will pull out given our straightened times. Within the construction there will be a lot of ignorance and pigheadedness to the position builders now find themselves in. They are just calling the tune and that will not be the case anymore. The ratio of construction jobs to builders is going to dwindle. They will still be looking to charge lots and lots but people simply now cannot afford it and wont be able to afford it for the foreseeable. They are either going to have to hit the dole , fly away or cut their margins in order to survive.

Shauna677

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119623867#Comment_119623867

Hotels were utter bastards over the summer months, the prices they were charging in dublin especially were nothing short of outrageous

I went to Lidle once war on Ukraine started and took 70 bottles of sunflower oil paying 1.39 per ltr.Today sunflower oil price is 1.49.

The most take a way and other places hiring part timers paying cash ! What minimal wage increase we are talking about? One owner of restaurant was taking girls taxes to his pocket ! And when one girl came to social welfare office she been told that she were Unemployed and any taxes wasn't paid !

VAT is up ? Did they ever paid it ? Mostly surely but there is plenty holes which didn't paid a peny of VAT to Revenue taking VAT from customers !

Raw materials? Same places were Lidl or Aldi taking from ?

What petrol and diesel ? The most has green diesel in them SUV tanks or vans !

The price of energy surely,here they can't do anything about it .

Cryers trying suck extra penny from tax payers pocket ! Did you forget how much sandwich or pint cost at Temple Bar !? Most of them got them COVID loses back in the first month they back and started making profit month after ! Sorry,those who bought property in Spain getting COVID support here took little bit longer !

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119623908#Comment_119623908

The coalition have pinned everything on this housing for all, they will prop up the construction sector and subsidize the market to the last euro so I can't see the arse falling out of it.

Drog79

How does this play out for the average worker, few kids, house they don't see as capitalist investment and mortgage, car, schools, food etc.

Are we looking at mass emigration and 80s style taxes? I'm not sure many will stick around for that shite while we throw billions at public sector and other people's problems.

Dickie10

Only thing is that government /social housing will only keep a minority of construction workers in jobs. The rest being built by the private sector will have nothing being started.

On another note I can see thier being some opportunities in Agriculture, even though fertiliser and concentrate feeds are going throught the roof. The CAP payment is going to be capped at 60k in next 2 years, tillage farmers will off load a lot of rented land when they no longer can get paid on those acres. I see a good bit of quality arable land coming to market in the next 5-10 years, opportunities for those with cash squirrelled away, could be the same with hoousing when the bust comes but i dont think there will be an oversupply as there was in 2008-

Thoughts? "its an ill wind that doesnt blow some good"

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119623826#Comment_119623826

I wrote about it here number of months ago.You could find those comments here.

I am ex carpenter,left sites and workshops because feel smell of recession coming in 2019 and never looked back.I gave to carpentry 30 years and that is more than enough.

When summer started I heard that many heavy machinery coming back to hire plants due with things getting slow.

I found that lads with hands and vans started work at private houses what mean fish started looking for deeper water.Once I was passing village vere whole street with renovations were booming when the last 7 years I found only 1 house been built there.Guys even putting signs with names and phones trying find more jobs on area they are working on.

I know lads which are working on timber frame company which are making timber frame houses for Glenveagh.Glenvegh are big building company which build the houses.They was working every single Saturday on factory and the last week Saturday they were off.I was really surprised ,will see what will happen this week Saturday.

The metal construction company in Dunleer County Louth which was involved in some multinational data centres and places build working only 1 shift when before had 2.

The guys here was telling that Kingspan sales were falling what mean things on sites and building industry going slow.

I think things getting quiet and if you are involved to work on site you need go under the roof asap before heavy rain will start.

gary550

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119622968#Comment_119622968

That's not surprising, different industry but I had the best month in years in August and it's been dead since. Madness, can't figure out. There still seems to be demand but the enquiries seem to be lingering on and holding off for some reason where before the time from enquiry to giving you business was quick.

The media really is not helping, I can understand from a consumer point of view why people are reluctant to continue spending the way they were. Every-time you put on the news, facebook etc it's all negatives about cost of living, electricity bills, unemployment etc. Just a bad cycle of depressing shite.

I feel for people running bigger businesses with loads of staff and big non fixed overhead, there's a storm a coming from the looks of things.

Yurt2

"Glenvegh are big building company which build the houses"

🤣

Seriously, what malfunctioning AI is this???

patnor1011

India just restricted export of some types of rice and put up ridiculous tariffs. Just to remind India export more rice than 4 other biggest exporters combined and 150 countries depends on rice import from India. And the circus is only starting.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/15/moscow-says-power-of-siberia-2-pipeline-to-china-will-replace-nord-stream-2

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-puts-rosneft-deutschland-under-trusteeship-2022-09-16/

Forget about business as usual folks.Those days will never back.Now we will have learn how to live in New reality and the sooner we will do it the better will be for us.

EOQRTL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119624706#Comment_119624706

Lifestyle's will have to be adjusted massively. Unfortunately as per usual it will be the middle and lower classes that will suffer the most as they don't have the finances to pivot to the green agenda.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119623826#Comment_119623826

General talk I am hearing is that in terms of housing projects, most private companies doing housing are going to finish the phases they were on and stall on doing anymore phases until they see what will happen with prices, so basically come October November there will be a big slow down in private companies building houses.

As regard commercial property that ship sailed nearly a year ago, hardly any new big commercial projects coming down the pipeline, I see any Industrial/Commercial building being built at the minute, once they are finished then that will be that. All you have to do is look around Dublin City center, there is nothing but empty span new Rolls Royce office blocks.

Feisar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119624811#Comment_119624811

I was chatting to a supplier that'd be in with the architects, same story, nothing commercial coming.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119624706#Comment_119624706

Germany have lost the plot. Schwedt runs on only Russian oil directly from Druzhba north.If that goes Poland and the Baltics go as well, then everyone is going to scramble around for new supplies of oil. Then again maybe they have some sort of plan.

Something is going to kick off with oil shortly, that's for certain.

Amount of cranes in Dublin are perfect indicator of economy in Ireland.The less them you will see the worst will be condition of economy .

CeCe12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119623826#Comment_119623826

From private contractors I personally know, when they give a potential customer a price for a job, it is good for 7 days. This is due to the rising cost of raw materials. Beyond the 7 days the cost is likely to increase.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625217#Comment_119625217

Yep and the building providers are the same. I believe some of their building material quotes only last 24 hours now. It used to be 3-6 months in the past.

CeCe12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625258#Comment_119625258

Correct scary times.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625217#Comment_119625217

This will be reversing in the next 6 to 12 months.. the 7 day cost will be show that there is a decrease in price or a lot of builders will be joining the dole queue. Costs of raw materials will come down and profit margins will have to narrow to compete. This time last year I got a build done and could only get one guy out to quote and went with him. I wanted to extend again this year in March the guy I had doing the last job upped what he quoted by 30% I said no way too much I will wait. I put the job out there again today and I had 6 builders respond within a week looking to come and have a look. Be interesting to see what price I can get it for but one thing for certain there seems to be a lot more interest from the builders for my job now as apposed to 6 / 12 months ago.

CeCe12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625280#Comment_119625280

I fully expect so. Its crazy. I don't even like to think of next year. The Government have only this week made a rumbling towards acknowledging all this. Apparently since their traditional builders holidays they realise all confidence in the economy is gone. Usually they were used to a high mark up in profit. Out the window now. People, including myself are keeping our hands in our pockets, bracing for 2023.

Danye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625207#Comment_119625207

But it’s to late then. I’m trying to preempt what will happen.

Danye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119624833#Comment_119624833

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119624811#Comment_119624811

Yeah I was talking to somebody who looks after the tenders for a large construction company and he told me they’ve stopped even tendering for commercial projects.

brickster69

US frustrated about the speed of sanctions not working as fast as they hoped, but expect them to take more of an effect next year.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/16/politics/russia-sanctions-ukraine-slow-economic-pain/index.html

Folks ! I finally found the perfect sign of recession coming! The rising amount of cheap SUVs on the roads !

brickster69

The number of companies in England and Wales declared insolvent jumped by 43% in August

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/16/companies-declared-insolvent-in-england-and-wales-jump-by-43