A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

greenfield21

It will be interesting to see if the tech rout persists for a while, will we see far greater job losses here than other countries. I doubt any other country is exposed and considering many industries are still doing well.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119848345#Comment_119848345

I don't think that's true. Facebook, Twitter and other volatile companies hit the headlines often, but Ireland has dozens (hundreds?) of MNCs which seem to be solid. The pharma and medtech industries seem to be growing with little signs of stopping.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119848356#Comment_119848356

Yeah but if you had looked at FB this time 2/3 weeks ago you would of said they were solid as well. I am hearing rumblings about Intel in Leixlip as well. This could be the start of a lot of pain for this country not just jobs but a lot of our annual spend is based on recurring high corpo tax

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119848356#Comment_119848356

Yes but look at the corp tax take - a few big MNCs taking big hits to income could significantly impact the state coffers, even if the numbers employed by MNCs changes little.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119848400#Comment_119848400

Paschal promises that the excessive CT receipts are not being booked into permanent expenditure, but like you, I am worried.

https://twitter.com/Paschald/status/1587862940664954881

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119849099#Comment_119849099

Well he has booked this years public sector pay rises into permanent expenditure , no way of putting that genie back in the bottle now

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119847647#Comment_119847647

That €450 is before bills are paid for everything excluding rent.

You're forgetting that a sizeable majority of people rely on a car or two (if wife works) to get to and from work - and possibly have repayments on these vehicles too. They'll certainly have motor tax, insurance, repairs, NCT, tolls and very expensive fuel charges. Also, working people will not get fuel allowance for the winter season either. Any medical issues will be another expense that hits working people, and if they have kids over 7 they're not included in free healthcare schemes. Working families are therefore expected to pay private health insurance.

Remember there are only a few expensive periods in your life.

When you first buy a house and pay the deposit and cost of furnishing

When your children are zero to 4 and you're paying childcare.

When your children go to college and you're paying their way.

After that most working families will get by just fine.

What schools operate a 52-week full lessons year? Childcare costs don't disappear once the child starts school! No, most working families are not getting by just fine, a few might be if they own their home (mortgage paid off) but the majority are getting squeezed.

Only the lucky few get promoted? Luck rarely has anything to do with it. If you're working ten years and haven't gotten a raise or promotion then you're doing something wrong.

Yes, only the lucky few get promoted. Away from the public sector there is no need for an army of managers to manage a few workers - so there is physically limited space for progression. And you're right in a sense that luck has rarely anything to do with it, and rarely hard work either - promotions are for buddies in a good few places, public or private. So, don't try and push the "you're doing something wrong" on people who don't progress up the ladder. Some workers just don't want to and for the proportion that do, it's not physically possible to accommodate them all.

As for your point in getting a raise! The reality is that alot of businesses just cannot afford any more operating costs. SMEs are in a tight spot right now.

greenfield21

Recession getting further away?

https://mobile.twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1589983111067992064

brickster69

Gas cap is impossible. Five months to finally understand 🤣

There is also 6 trillion euro of derivatives currently connected to TTF so that is a non runner also. Now what ?

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1590009272477573123

Relax brah

Zendesk laying off staff in dublin

brickster69

Food inflation rising fast in Hungary last year they spent 7€ billion on energy imports and this year already up to 19€ billion.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1590031967567110144

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119848122#Comment_119848122

The freight companies jacked up the prices so much they made buying from Asia into Europe impossible for many customer. So companies found a manufacturer closer to home in Europe and now the need for freight from China has collapsed. Pure greed is all it is.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119848400#Comment_119848400

Meta is struggling for a while now not 2/3 weeks, the share price is in the gutter.

greenfield21

Meta getting a lot of air time from the Irish media, the world isn't collapsing and it 400 jobs not 4000. A bit mad really. It could be much worse. Meta is only back to the same headcount it had at the start of the year. Graph all the big tech companies and see the crazy hiring since Q1 2020...

El Gato De Negocios

Meta is simply redressing the balance. During the pandemic, online activity spiked and they (and others) hired staff to service this spike however as lockdowns ended and people were able to get out and about, back to offices etc usage returned to pre pandemic levels but the companies were left with a bloated head count. That's not sustainable.

I'd be more concerned with small, independent companies shedding staff, small businesses closing, they are a better indicator of an incoming recession than these super organisations streamlining.

SuperBowserWorld

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853309#Comment_119853309

It's unreal that forecasted growth was based on the covid lockdown model where there were more eyeballs glued to more screens. And not just faceyuck.

That was bad planning 🤣

PokeHerKing

They've been adding between 20 & 30% to their staff count for years. Way more than just the pandemic.

You could say they're going back to 2020 levels but they didn't increase hiring during the pandemic. They just continued hiring at the rate they'd been going for a number of years.

Eclectic Econometrics

Is anyone keeping a tally of the layoffs in Ireland so far?

I think someone said this here already, the real pain will probably be in the new year in SMEs. It may be less headline grabbing but far more devastating. I see spending falling off a cliff in January. There are certain consume goods categories that I really wouldn't want to be in come 2023. That said, Ireland still looks to be on a comparatively decent path. The US looks to be on for a milder recession than the EU. This by extension may help Ireland with a continued decent tax take from the tech sector.

I am not saying it is sunshine and lollipops, but I would take this country's position over, say, the UK at the moment.

Cluedo Monopoly

I would not like to have investments or pensions in commercial property. Between WFH and the tech slowdown, there will be a lot of office space vacant.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119855337#Comment_119855337

Maybe the government will throw cash at this sector in order to prop it up, as it has done with the residential property market. For instance, to provide emergency shelter for asylum seekers and then the public won't notice that this is a backdoor bailout to commercial landlords!

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40871876.html

dollylama

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119855337#Comment_119855337

The commercial property sector in Dublin was on fire long before Covid or WFH was a thing. We spent the latter years of the 2010's gutting and leveling the finest of buildings in Dublin all so they could be turned into pretentious glass boxes, funded by names we'd never heard, to be leased by names we'd never heard of. The old Central Bank on Dame Street a good example.. insane money sunk glorifying this building so WeWork could lease out casual desk space in it! WeWork as your end client on a multi, multi million € rebuild .. mother of God 😅

The fit out costs alone on some of these buildings was absolutely eye watering and could never make sense... floors full of motorised desks at 10k a piece, each with their own air conditioning! The finest most expensive materials and fittings used, ignoring the mountains of perfectly good fittings that were fkd out beforehand. We'd pass these same buildings months, a year later and they'd still have the for lease signs up or at best, some fake company stuck in a corner of one floor.

I'm convinced there was something funky going on in commercial real estate investment back then. These funds are in for a severe hangover

brickster69

Russia likely to cut oil production by 1.5 mbd from December. The US is also to stop the flow of 1 mbd from strategic reserves this month.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russias-Oil-Output-Set-To-Fall-By-15-Million-Bpd-In-December.html

brickster69

US - CPI 7.7% vs expected 7.9%

Core 6.3% vs 6.5% expected

brickster69

Still rising in Germany. Last time at this`level`they`invaded`Poland

https://twitter.com/f_wintersberger/status/1590969207025721345

brickster69

UK economy shrinks in Q3 meaning almost certain in recession now.

The rest of Europe highly probable to be in recession this winter

https://www.dw.com/en/eu-says-eurozone-set-to-fall-into-recession-this-winter/a-63723563

brickster69

Commodities rise across the board on China easing Covid restrictions.

brickster69

Worlds largest metal exchange continues to sell and store Russian metals. Sanity prevails for once.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lme-will-not-ban-russian-metal-its-system-2022-11-11/

brickster69

Due to UN intervention Holland will release 20K tons of fertilizer for Malawi. A total of 240K tons have been held up since sanctions started and have been offered free of charge to needy countries.

Shameful behaviour denying these countries for 6 months.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-netherlands-fertilizers-idAFL1N3271TN

https://twitter.com/sophiadahl1/status/1576277606915133440

brickster69

No hurry lads take your time. Tens of millions of people and businesses waiting to see what is going to be done about energy prices this winter.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Disagreement-Over-Gas-Price-Cap-Threatens-EU-Energy-Crisis-Solutions.html

brickster69

UK food inflation and company failures rising

https://www.cityam.com/confidence-at-all-time-low-soaring-costs-force-half-of-food-manufacturers-to-cut-investment/