A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173171#Comment_120173171

If you read the article beyond the headline it looks more like they're removing 100 jobs from a certain function, while hiring for 158 jobs in other functions (and some of the 100 are already being moved to those vacancies rather than actually being laid off)

And this is the problem - 100 layoffs grabs the headlines while 200 hires rarely warrant a mention. The employment rate currently stands at all time highs and there are no job shortages at all while the news articles people seek out and share suggest the opposite of reality.

Sentiment and consumer confidence is everything of course and if enough people believe things are going worse than they actually are, that belief can turn into reality.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120169992#Comment_120169992

No point trying to engage with a poster whose first resort is abuse.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120178280#Comment_120178280

really so calling me clueless is engaging, your not engaging as you don't have a fiddlers what your talking about

Relax brah

Biden meeting on the 1st is an important one. He’s always been good at getting deals done, I suspect the debt ceiling will be raised and approved

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120178296#Comment_120178296

Ah now, we're all clueless really.

@fliball123 "The profits are way down in almost every big tech company"

Sure out of our top 10 contributors to corporate tax, only 2 recorded a slight fall in profits in 2022.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120179174#Comment_120179174

If you re-read my points I am talking about the corpo tax for 2023 will be down on 2022 and profits at the tail end of 2022 seen a large fall off in profits hence the ramping up of the shedding of jobs

Fine Day

There is alot of building going on in the Pharma and med device companies at present here, big expansions in alot of the well known companies. I know they are doing well and all that but maybe they are pumping there money into expansion so they can pay less in corporation tax. I know a 100 million euro expansion is peanuts to these large companies. But still all this building they are doing would make you wonder particularly when they can't get staff to fill the vacancies they have already, where are they going to get people to fill these other roles after expansions are finished.

brickster69

Germany's retail sales in December fell off a cliff, the last 3 months average figure was the worst in the countries history. Europe's largest economy likely in recession now.

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1620316024938659840

brickster69

UK grocery inflation hits all time high. Hopefully nothing happens to set off energy or fuel prices again.

https://uk.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/uk-grocery-price-inflation-rises-to-record-167-kantar-2898288

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120178296#Comment_120178296

I called your post clueless, that is not abuse.

rob316

Groceries prices will go through the roof if the government remove the excise reduction.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120181194#Comment_120181194

That is a staggering level of inflation. Some of the UK inflation is self imposed though - the fact that their rate is the highest by far of the G7 and the coinciding time period with brexit cannot be overlooked.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120181395#Comment_120181395

Everything will go up, the country runs on diesel commercial vehicles.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120181433#Comment_120181433

It is food inflation Elm and believe it or not is not that bad compared to some.

Continued inflation falls for Ireland & Portugal. Back up slightly in France and Spain.

brickster69

Food inflation from Novembers figures, some difference from bottom to top.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120181367#Comment_120181367

Ye started this and then got all precious when I retorted with fact that blew your argument out of the water, its a sure sign when the post just plays the man and not the fact that was in the post. I wont be engaging with you again as I might upset your gentle nature

Geuze

Eurostat data on GDP growth, 2022 Q4:

PRELIMINARY FLASH ESTIMATE

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120181850#Comment_120181850

So Ireland has more or less pulled the EU into growth due to our MNCs and corpo tax. The powers that be must be praying for some relief with regards to the big tech companies shedding jobs and get the profit margins back up. I cant anywhere near 20 Billion coming in for 2023. Any figures on GNP?

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120181880#Comment_120181880

The idea behind the layoffs is increased profit for the MNCs.

However, it would probably not manifest as such IMO due to one off restructure costs (eg severance) would be higher than just paying salaries for the FY. Especially if non US staff are laid off. I know of two large MNC that laid off Irish staff recently and the packages were 6 weeks + statutory in one and 8 weeks + statutory in another. That adds up.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120182047#Comment_120182047

I sense an air of disappointment sweeping over the thread.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120182047#Comment_120182047

Imagine 40 of the world's biggest economies sanction one country to death and they just shrug it off. Unbelievable really !

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183113#Comment_120183113

I knew I'd see this one here as well.

They haven't "shrugged it off", the rise is relative to the drop last year. Prior to the war last year, Russia was on par for a 3% or 4% rise, instead they've dropped (by up to) 6%. Almost a 10% aggregate drop due to sanctions and the war.

For reference they fell 7.8% during the financial crisis.

Obviously many expected or hoped it would be even worse, but hey, when someone has unlimited capital controls and massive nat resources, even with the GDP the size of Italy, they can recover from a near 10% drop. Let's see how they are doing in a couple of years.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183122#Comment_120183122

Because i said it from the start that sanctions against Russia won't work and will only hurt the other side.

So it is nice to get something right.Hopefully i am very wrong about the global economy going to **** though. Especially Europe's.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183211#Comment_120183211

Did you actually bother to read what i said.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183180#Comment_120183180

Sanctions have hurt Russia and they do work. Perhaps not as much as was initially hoped, but this is just the beginning.

The drop last year, coupled with a 0.3% rise for this year is with Russia gaining vast amounts of energy revenue from the previous year due to the war spiking prices, which is not going to last with dropping prices and customers. Not to mention the 300 billion of their assets frozen, which they are unlikely to ever see again.

Can they scrape by? Sure, forever, look at NK. Can they economically fund their war on Europe indefinitely under these conditions? Yeah, not so sure on that one. We'll see over the next few years.

brickster69

Germany was supposed to release it's inflation figures on Wednesday. Unfortunately they will only be able to give an estimate before the ECB's decision on interest rates. Must of lost the calculator or something.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/crucial-euro-zone-inflation-data-will-only-include-estimate-germany-2023-01-30/

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183333#Comment_120183333

Sanctions hurt them but they definitely do not work. They hurt us more actually. Anyway, Russia is moving towards Asia and the rest of the world which did not sanction them. I think they are going to be way better off than the EU in the next few years.

You got your facts mixed up a bit. Russia is at war with Ukraine not the Europe. It is EU who is trying to be at war with Russia.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185560#Comment_120185560

You think Russia will be better off than the EU? Do you realise how much more prosperous the EU is than Russia? Christ

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185962#Comment_120185962

The point is that sanctions always hurt the consumer more than the producer. Any restrictions on trade tend to do that, protectionism is another form of economic sanction and it is widely accepted that the consumer is always worst off.

Producers can usually sell elsewhere - which they are in this case. Chinese and particularly Indian purchases of Russian crude has skyrocketed last year and so far this year. Indian refineries are a gold mine right now for refining and re-selling to Europe. Oil is fungible, nobody really knows where it originally came from so "sanctions dodging" is rife.

Its a good time to be a middleman though

brickster69

People go on about this GDP being the size of Spain and being easy to ruin it's economy was just wrong.

Firstly Spain is in debt up to it's eyeballs Russia is 14% debt to GDP and who knows how much they have tucked away over the years in diamonds and gold. You can guarantee they won't advertise it.

Hypothetically lets imagine the roles were reversed.

Spain gets sanctioned by the West

All air routes closed. No tourism sorry

OIL & gas supplies halted

Sea freight cancelled in and out

Road freight closed in and out

No access to Swift and banks shut off

300 billion frozen

How long do they last and what would be it's GDP in a months time ? They could not last a fortnight, now do it with any other European country the same.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186139#Comment_120186139

But that's utterly irrelevant, nobody is sanctioning Spain. Russia is horrid place to be a citizen right now and that's not changing any time soon.