A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120217482#Comment_120217482

I suppose it (Nordstream sabotage) is to do with European gas supplies, the futility of EU sanctions (only harming ourselves) and the how German economy will be crushed by Putin, brickster's "hot topics" as of Feb 2022.

Promoting and spreading + legitimising such theories about the US being responsible for the pipeline's destruction is, after all, of most benefit to Russia.

Going off on a tangent...I have noted that Brexit has exhausted itself completely now, and posting about it here or elsewhere (in Western social media, comment pages etc.) is no longer of any use to Russia!

[...Brexit - now there was an example of a country "self-sanctioning" for no reason at all and gaining no benefit but unlike the EU sanctions on Russia, brickster69 really dug Brexit back in the day, harder the better - go for it Boris, and show the EU wots wot!...you'd wonder now cui bono?!]

mcsean2163

Nordstream 1 had been in use. We've an energy problem in Europe now.

https://www.politico.eu/article/cheap-us-gas-cost-fortune-europe-russia-ukraine-energy/

the warm winter helped but we probably need to move to nuclear..... fast! It seems unlikely the Russian's destroyed their own pipeline but who knows.... would be very worrying if the US was responsible.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218085#Comment_120218085

What does this have to do with a global recession? The pipeline is gone. Why or how doesn't alter whether there'll be a global recession or not.

It's pretty obvious why you are posting this conspiracy theory nonsense here and not on e.g. See page #1 of the Russia thread. But instead have to hijack this thread.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218475#Comment_120218475

Nordstream 1 was shut down for 'maintance' at the end of August '22, it was due to restart a few days later. Russia then announced that it won't be restarted until sanctions were lifted.

It was shut weeks before the explosion with no sign of it reopening.

brickster69

Credit Suisse back in the news today. Not looking great to be fair with customers withdrawing $120 billion in just 3 months.

https://twitter.com/markets/status/1623565806700208133

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218727#Comment_120218727

Yes. That's why I said 'had' been in use.

newmember2

For the love of God...

would of

would have

would've

brickster69

Russia to cut crude oil production by 500K a day or 5% of output. Counter measures to the oil cap will be announced in 2 weeks.

https://www.breakingthenews.net/news/details/59444606

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218155#Comment_120218155

There is lots of bad news from the losing of 1/4 of million jobs in Tech (the supposed bastion of big wage to average joe) which has really ramped up this year. IN 2022 160k lost jobs in tech, Already in 2023 and we are not even half way through Feb there is already over 100k jobs lost.

https://layoffs.fyi/

Add in the supposed safe bet of property seeing asking prices drop for the fist time in almost a decade.

https://www.myhome.ie/reports/2022/Q4

We are one of the most indebted nations in the world. Every person including our kids owe 44k and the debt we owe is 226Billion and this with increasing interest rates will become much harder to manage and will start taking a massive chunk out of yearly exchequer spend as the debt rolls over onto higher rates going forward.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/every-person-ireland-owes-44000-29128519

We are over reliant on corpo tax and due to the first paragraph here we will not see anywhere near 20 billion in 2023.

Interest rates are putting roughly half a million mortgage holders (317k Non fixed rate mortgages in the country that have seen interest rates increase) to the pin of the collars.

High energy, fuel food costs putting everyone else bar maybe the richest 10% to the pin of their collars.

2022 seen a ramp up of business hitting the wall with a metric of 1 business a day in 2022 hitting the wall and way up from 2021 and 2023 is going to be a blood bath. Up by 29% on years that companies had to deal with covid and lockdowns then add in the knock on effect of leaving someone else out of pocket by up to 2billion so there is impact on other businesses/individuals

https://businessplus.ie/news/insolvencies-up-29pc-covid/

https://www.thinkbusiness.ie/articles/irish-business-failures-pwc-insolvency-barometer-2023/#:~:text=There%20was%20little%20change%20in,compared%20to%202021%20(81).

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/10/03/debts-of-bust-businesses-to-top-2bn-in-2022-and-are-rising-fast-report-finds/

I said it before and I will say it again burying your head in the sand and saying I am alright Jack and things will be fine is not comparable to what people are seeing out there on a daily basis and its not just Ireland we are actually head of the class and mainly due to our corpo taxes last year. The majority of countries expect to be in some kind of recession this year and Ireland unfortunately has one of the most open markets globally and we will be more exposed to other countries finances and the markets due to this.

brickster69

Looks like further cuts to oil production coming for 2023. Demand was already expected to increase 2.2 mbd in 2023 with China slowly getting back to normality. The oil cap was designed to keep prices stable and production high.Now demand will be higher, production lower and prices higher.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-oil-output-dip/32265041.html

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223324#Comment_120223324

And yet for all that heavily cherry picked one sided out of context data that you've painstakingly found, the real top line figures show economic growth and very high rates of employment in Ireland and most developed countries.

Even the UK, by far the weakest major economy after all the destruction the Tories have reaped in recent years, has unexpectedly avoided recession according to numbers released just today. They're still forecast to go into recession, but no other major economies are.

It's a waste of time to go through all the links you provided but to take just one, the Irish housing report, it doesn't say what you think it does. House prices always fall slightly in the final quarter as most major sales happen through the Summer months. As the report says, on average they fall 1.1% in that quarter in any given year but this year they only fell 0.4%, showing real resilience. The year on year data which actually compares like for like shows growth as we all know, and while the previous extreme pace of growth is slowing that is really only a good thing as it is much more sustainable.

lisasimpson

While the irish corporation tax take will take a hit, i dont see it falling off a cliff like what some are expecting. We still have a some v strong multinational in other sectors apart from tech such as pharma, medical decives and finanical services sector

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223529#Comment_120223529

They did a year on year as well and asking prices are down. As I said if you look at my posts I have predicted first 2/3 quarters this year to flatline with regards to growth and Q4 seeing momentum going towards a downturn/recession. UK had virtually zero growth (0.1%) in the last quarter after Q3 contracting that is why they didnt enter a technical recession and you talk about me cherry picking :)

As for no other countries going into a recession the IMF would disagree (but sure what would they know eh)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/01/22/imf-chief-predicts-a-recession-for-developing-countries-in-2023/?sh=248f116079f1

Sure we will see how it goes. Dont bother going through the links it is a waste of time if it does not suit you're "everything is hunky dory" narrative.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223578#Comment_120223578

You speak of major economics yet link to an IMF article specifically highlighting emerging economies.

PokeHerKing

Just heard on the radio there, Lidl to create 700 jobs nationwide and 7.5% wage increase across the board.

Fair play Lidl. Germans a great bunch of lads.

brickster69

Costs for transporting refined products of oil like Diesel, Jet fuel etc. have increased by 280% this week because of extra demand for them for some reason. It's going to get quite expensive getting these specialist ships now, especially considering the time it takes to arrive from places like India, Saudi and the US.

You would of thought people would of thought there was enough ships in place to transport them before banning them.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/the-cost-of-shipping-gasoline-is-soaring-after-russia-sanctions?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&leadSource=uverify%20wall

brickster69

The US made a mistake with it's inflation numbers last month, it actually went up instead of falling. Germany's delayed report also showed a slight increase for December also.

Allinall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120224025#Comment_120224025

That's good news.

Demand for fuel is a sign of ioncreased activity in an economy.

BoxcarWilliam99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223324#Comment_120223324

My company won't give anyone a pay rise. The company put up all of its product costs ie parts, labour, products etc

Im struggling and I know others are struggling. I have cut back buying products and services.

How often is this repeated across the country in SMEs.

Sales of all sorts of products and services must be slowing and the problem then compounds

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223664#Comment_120223664

Sure, only that most of those 700 jobs gained will result in cuts of jobs in other retailers who can not compete to Lidl. With decline of purchasing power people will cut some expenses and will try to save on others. Everyone who start shopping in those brand new Lidl shops will stop spending somewhere else. This is not "growth" but rather some kind of "redistribution".

enricoh

I see astra zeneca are building a new plant here. That's more of a win to me than a lidl job or dominos announcement.

Big issues now for employers with housing, we risk losing investment over it.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/0210/1355914-businesses-struggle-with-effects-of-the-housing-crisis/

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120224673#Comment_120224673

Yes but the extra demand will be coming from just one country. It is what it is now for things like diesel, no escaping from it.

If you were getting just one ship delivered from Russia every day it took 2 days back and forth. Now if you get it from India it takes one ship 30 days back and forth.So to be supplied every day you need 15 times more ships on the sea at once. So not only is the " crude oil " going to be more expensive than before, which makes the end product more expensive than before, you then need 15 times more ships than before. And the funny thing is guess what all these ships run on ? Yes, diesel.

Like i said shipping rates for refined products have risen 282% in a week because of bigger demand for them. Once all of these stocks that have been built up in Europe the last few months have depleted which will take a while, everything is going to shoot up isn't it ?

Unless crude oil falls a fair bit and then it is not so bad. The clowns in charge should be focused on getting prices down not push everything up more.

brickster69

China reducing refined oil product exports due to the economy picking up after the covid lockdowns.

https://archive.ph/bBLwx

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223664#Comment_120223664

When I heard that I thought, cheap stores squeeze out higher income bracket stores and possibly smaller shops. The population is growing but not that much and Lidl likely need to raise wages or lose staff, probably not that big a deal to them given how understaffed Lidl already are.

Another example could be battery farming of hens to add 500 new jobs. Headline not listed, 'free range egg farms to shed 750 jobs.'

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120230432#Comment_120230432

You could say that about everything. One company booming more than likely means other companies selling similar products are losing out.

No idea about staffing numbers in Lidl but I remember a poster on boards that worked for them and was on 50ish K for a supervisor role. Which is decent pay.

Thespoofer

Working in Construction ( roofing ), our company just gave us a small raise.

Speaking to others on site it's hard to tell which way it's gonna go. Alot of people thought things would be fairly quiet now given material rises etc, but it keeps going.

I think a big impact eventually will be the constant attack on use of cash, but maybe that's for another day.

brickster69

Europe's spend on the energy crisis hits 800 billion euro, hopefully just a one off and not a yearly thing.

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/europes-spend-on-energy-crisis-nears-800-billion-euros-3001328

Talk of a new round of boomerangs to be launched including possibly against UAE companies also this week.

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/new-russia-sanctions-winter-forecast-breeding-unicorns/

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120225756#Comment_120225756

Irish SMEs are notoriously bad payers - whether that's staff or suppliers - but certainly know how to charge though.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120235091#Comment_120235091

A lot will not have the wiggle room for pay rises after all of the other increases its not just energy its other areas of spend that a company would have to cover has also rocketed up like insurance. I feel the posters pain but my advise would be to keep your head down and just try and get through the next 2/3 years and if things have not gone back to some normality in that time and they are still on the same pay I would be looking for a new job.

Wolf359f

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/0213/1356293-euro-zone-growth-forecasts/

Little more upbeat assessment of the EU growth. Not sure if positive news is allowed on the thread though!