A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717510#Comment_120717510

That's our corporation tax Miguel - how else will we have world class welfare rates without it!!

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717452#Comment_120717452

There's a huge amount of crap we can do without. Living standards to me are clearly defined.

Ireland would have to fall quite a ways to lower the countries core standards. 07/08 didn't even do that.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717510#Comment_120717510

Yeah good look with that, spain. We're not going to give up our corporate tax rate. If you dont like it why not lower yours!

AlmightyCushion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717583#Comment_120717583

Then you don't understand what standard of living means. Standard of living generally refers to the type and quantity of things people can buy/get. A billionaire having to fill the toilets in their yacht with a cheaper brand of champagne is a drop in standard of living. It's not one the average person will lose much sleep over but it is still a drop in that billionaire's standard of living. A person having to upgrade to the latest iPhone every second year instead of every year is a drop in their standard of living. A person having to buy a supermarkets own brand bread instead of Pat the baker or whatever, is a drop in their standard of living even if it is pretty much the same thing. A drop in the standard of living doesn't always affect your day to day life though. e.g. buying a new iPhone every 2 years instead of every year doesn't really affect your day to day life because there is feck all difference between the iPhone 17 and iPhone 18 or what ever version they are on now. Having to go without a smartphone at all because you can't afford to buy a new one to replace your broken one or having to use an old, rubbish smartphone will have an affect on your day to day life.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716694#Comment_120716694

For generation rent life already feels reduced in that while material things have never been more affordable, actual security feels elusive and that's down to domestic political settings. I doubt Ireland will kick off like Britain did with Brexit because we're already inured with the concept of moving country as it suits. I have nephews and nieces with very comfortable lives elsewhere in the EU so while there's options there's hope.

brickster69

EUROZONE TRADE BALANCE (APR) ACTUAL: -11.7B VS 25.6B PREVIOUS; EST 21.5B

Report https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/16948990/6-15062023-AP-EN.pdf/f5969777-27e1-91e0-b022-470584bc4527

brickster69

ECB press conference starting soon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwwxwdgZaNw

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717510#Comment_120717510

He called a snap general election due to terrible results in local elections so he is probably talking tough in advance of the GE. We've heard it all before.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717816#Comment_120717816

That might be the new, globalised, mega megacorp version being peddled but it ain't my version.

Clean water, healthcare, housing, social welfare etc are the ones that count.

You having to deal with the same phone for 2 years is not a stamdatd of livonf drop for the country.

Hotblack Desiato

Housing costs are a major contributor to decreasing standard of living.

Dohnjoe

Did that poster who claimed there was going to be a major collapse by June this year ever come back like they promised?

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718590#Comment_120718590

It is next Thursday (22nd June) that the OP will be back here.

Relax brah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718814#Comment_120718814

Here I am

grumpyperson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717675#Comment_120717675

Yes,race to the bottom will enable us all to better serve our corporate overlords.

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718057#Comment_120718057

Your heart is the right place but you have to consider the economic impact this potential transition means. It doesn't matter what the market is or how ethical they were, if the production within translates to a significant portion of economic activity across the globe then it will mean a hit for everyone. If we saw a move away from cheap labour, we wouldn't only see prices increase. We would see production fall in fragile economies, we would see sales fall everywhere. People would consume less, others would make less or lose their jobs. It might be a step in the right direction but the pain would be felt by all for a while. You're essentially taking heroin off an addict.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718424#Comment_120718424

A contributor yes, but that can have more to do to do with domestic policies than global economics.

Danzy

ECB saying inflation to only get to 2.2 for 2024, average 5.5 this year.

Recession how are you, this is skinning the shin bone, as is.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120720488#Comment_120720488

Hopefully wrong but a recession is looking the best case scenario. All Europe is in a very precarious state more than anywhere else, aside from possibly Switzerland at the moment. Too may plates spinning all at once and difficult to keep them all in the air it seems.

I have always been negative but just this last month or so have become very concerned about what could happen.

Yes the ECB were wrong with predicting inflation, yes they were too late raising rates, yes they printed too much money but every other major central bank got it wrong also. Lagarde get's a lot of stick but probably she inherited a good portion of it IMO, the train had already departed then.

rob316

The people who took 3 years at around 2% that are coming to an end are in for some land when the best they'll get is 5% fixed.

That will rise the average mortgage by around 300 per month

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721798#Comment_120721798

What does that mean to you ? Falling oil prices despite big production cuts, do you think it is a signal of something. I just can't put my finger on it, it does not happen often does it ? Give me a few hours to think about it and i'm sure it will come to me.

Relax brah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721859#Comment_120721859

I think you should go for a 15 minute walk, clear the head and re-read that article imo

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721859#Comment_120721859

Is that why the majority of Saudi oil imports is from Russia now. They must be really upset with them, fancy buying oil and diesel cheap and selling to us for 50% more ( at least ). They make more profit doing that than selling their own, i bet they are laughing their caps off along with the Indians and god knows who else.

Relax brah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721954#Comment_120721954

If a country's inflation rate becomes excessively high, it can trigger recession. When prices for goods and services increase rapidly, dollars become worth less in real terms; inflation also makes debt management easier by reducing interest rates on loans or mortgages and encouraging people to spend their cash; ultimately leading to greater demand for products and services.  

There can be some advantages associated with inflation, though. It makes debt easier to manage through reduced interest rates on loans or mortgages while encouraging consumers to spend money which boosts demand for goods and services. 

Inflation can be caused by many different factors. One common source is when businesses pay more for raw materials or labor to produce goods; these increased costs are then passed onto consumers through higher prices resulting in cost-push inflation.

As another means of inducing inflation, shortages of goods or services are another significant contributor. This can happen for various reasons such as natural disasters that disrupt production chains or higher demand outstripping manufacturing capacities - this phenomenon is known as demand-pull inflation.

 There can be some positive aspects to inflation, such as making loan repayment easier for those in debt. Unfortunately, inflation also raises living costs and reduces purchasing power of citizens.

 this international recession is continuing to wreak havoc on the world's working population. Although measures to support employment could help to mitigate some of its adverse impacts, this global economic slowdown is still have profound ripple effects across millions of lives worldwide due to consumer spending reduction causing businesses to scale back operations reducing in massive job loss and income losses for millions around the world.

We are in a recession, there is no doubt about that.

Relax brah

https://www.dw.com/en/global-recession-could-be-stoked-by-falling-commodity-prices/a-65863457

“No recession”’ some people here living on another planet.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120723444#Comment_120723444

If we are in a recession, it's very unusual, as employment is high, and still rising, and unemployment is low, and not rising.

randomname2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721681#Comment_120721681

Absolutely. Have 2.5 years before end of fixed period and already dreading it.

Geuze

This does not look like a typical recession:

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721506#Comment_120721506

Last year you were concerned about mass global starvation and Europe freezing, this year you've latched onto a thick vein of Twitter CAPSLOCK economic alarmism. You're feeding your own demand for this stuff.

Note how all the "2008 is happening again" types have suddenly gone quiet after piping up during the March bank crisis.

We're in choppy economic waters, maybe it'll get worse, I'm pretty sure we'll see recessions. But all this hyperbole end of the world stuff? Hmm.

highgiant1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120723494#Comment_120723494

I'm sure you're considering this already but if you can you could increase your savings between now and then which will at least help you have a buffer to cushion the blow if there is a significantly higher rate come renewal time. (Note: I appreciate a lot of people may not be able to afford to)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120723595#Comment_120723595

Prof John Fitzgerald on Sunday reiterated that 2008 again notion. The trouble with the full employment scenario is we have more services needed than people to provide them. I was in Marks and Spencer yesterday, 1 member of staff working a checkout alone and a big queue formed; a customer remarked on it and she said “welcome to the new normal”. Much of the time their coffee shop is closed for want of staff. Overall profits can only go down in these situations.