A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

yagan

If china is dipping into deflation then as workshop of the world that means demand everywhere must be waning.

Plus I'm not seeing this 40% jump in gas prices, or anything like that in any commodity.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120937606#Comment_120937606

The problem here is that we didn't deal properly with this earlier. This group of people are a relatively small number of borrowers who borrowed beyond their means for houses beyond their means and the banks sold them off as they couldn't repossess as the courts were too sympatethic to borrowers. If they had their houses repossessed and started again with smaller affordable properties, it would have been better in the longer run.

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120957511#Comment_120957511

Plus I'm not seeing this 40% jump in gas prices, or anything like that in any commodity.

I couldn't find this info either. It is future prices though, not current so maybe why you're seeing the same as me?

CPTM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120957432#Comment_120957432

There is an article in the FT about it

https://www.ft.com/content/8b7609dc-9d51-48b6-b608-cbff3a9c1658

Edit: I was able to view that without subscription but clicking on it a second time brought up a request to log in.

Ramasun

China dipping into deflation is not all bad. If it's related to the inflation fighting interest rate rises in Europe and the US, it's a sign the global economy still works. It might also give the FED and ECB reason to pause or end interest rate rises.

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120957590#Comment_120957590

Thank you, this explains it well.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120955310#Comment_120955310

Yes Sweden had some big dips in their property price.

Swedish are heavily indebted as population, their mortgage model was based on paying interest only.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120957914#Comment_120957914

I heard off someone a few months ago that they have a very serious problem on the commercial side of things over there. No idea on it myself, but it was proper crazy numbers involved from what i remember.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120957047#Comment_120957047

Is it not because of Niger and the fact the pipeline from Nigeria is less likely to go ahead. Especially with the Russian mercenaries now getting involved.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120958064#Comment_120958064

No idea, but it does sound like what that article which was kindly posted earlier by someone looks to of caused a bit of a panic.

https://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/europe-gas-surges-40pc-after-chevron-woodside-workers-vote-to-strike-20230810-p5dvav

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120957559#Comment_120957559

...or maybe the problem is, we actually didnt truly deal with the serous dysfunctions within the global financial system, which in fact caused the 08 crash in the first place, the fact that we literally turned a blind eye to all of the corruption, fraud etc within the system, that ultimately lead to the crash, and then bailed the whole thing out, without truly putting real safety measures in place, without actually properly investigating these institutions, and without actually jailing anybody involved, which is now leading us to potentially something far more serious within sectors that are even less regulated than the sectors that caused the 08 crash, such as the shadow banking sector, but no, the problem is actually really with a handful problem borrowers, theres definitely nothing to see here, definitely nothing!

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120958064#Comment_120958064

I thought Niger was based around Uranium, less supply of Uranium worldwide for Power Plants then higher demand for NG for electricity generation - The US really let Africa slip through the cracks, between China and Russia they seem to have a serious grip on Africa at the minute

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120959347#Comment_120959347

...joys of hegemony....

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120959347#Comment_120959347

The gas fields are in Nigeria but the pipeline they are building will connect it to Europe and will pass through Niger. Think it is called the Trans-Saharan pipeline and the guys that carried out the coup in Niger have aligned themselves with Russia and during the last few days Wagner mercenaries have gotten involved in the conflict.

yagan

Australia alone can supply the global supply for uranium for centuries just from known reserves so this Niger story is just another Russian fueled "they need us more than we need them" trope.

All commodities are way down on last year and that's not going to change considering demand from China is waning. If the workshop of the world is flatlining then global demand in all sectors should follow.

This is bad for Russia as we've seen from a previous graph showing the volume of trade in the Russia currency continues a steady decline since the initial shocks after the invasion.

lisasimpson

The WeWork and whole comerical property thing is interesting. The whole work from home thing is turning. In my industry financial services most are back 3 days now with some quite strict on it and i know one company where letters have been issued to some of are not appearing the 3 days. We are gone 3 days and the generally feeling is 4 office days the start of 2024

An IT company near where i live have now gone 4 days in office. Think the hybrid option while end up 1 day 2 max from home for majority of companies.

Think commerical development will slow with existing stock slowly getting taken up. But there is an overflow of it global that will take a few more years to be ulitized

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120960216#Comment_120960216

...by any chance do the Chinese have first dips on those Australian uranium reserves?

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120960253#Comment_120960253

If this is truly the case then commercial property would be doing better. The reality is that there is no end in sight for the pummelling it is currently taking. I wouldn't get too fixated on the ills of WeWork, that seems just someone who badly judged the market and whose offering doesn't fill a real need in the market. Take a look around Dublin at all the offices that are currently in the works, then look at all the "To Let/For Sale" signs that are also peppered around. It just seems a case of too much supply and we all know what follows there.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120960356#Comment_120960356

...and maybe a bit of speculation to booth!

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120960261#Comment_120960261

They have invested in all types of commodity extraction. I think China only accounted for under 2% of Australian exports three decades ago, whereas it's tipped over 40% now. When I worked there the ozzies outside of mining were in complete denial about how dependent they were on China.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120960607#Comment_120960607

ah yea, i know lads that worked there for a while, they said the Chinese were buying up the lot, Australia may have enough resources such as uranium for the rest of the world to use for a very long time, but that doesnt mean the Chinese would actually allow that to happen. global resources are quickly being commandeered by major super powers, if sh1t hits the fan in regards the availability of these critical resources, you can bet your bottom dollar these super powers wont be there to redistribute those resources in an orderly and fair fashion, they ll more than likely give all of us the big fcuk you!

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120960216#Comment_120960216

There is plenty of Uranium but the worlds enrichment capacity is 65% in control of Russia and China, that is more important.

brickster69

That is why no boomerangs have been launched at Rosatom, who have just took majority control of both Kazakhstan's and Uzbekistan's uranuim mines in the last couple of years. This means they have more than half the worlds Uranium and nearly half the worlds enrichment capacity, who is stupid enough to do anything about that ? Mind you, you never know !

A country masquerading as a petrol station LOL.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/europe-is-still-dependant-russia-in-nuclear-sector%3A-nyt

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120960887#Comment_120960887

It's the same with a lot rare earth material refinement. The US recently placed export restrictions on US sources of rare earth material for national supply integrity reasons, yet while these materials were restricted from being sold abroad they still had to go to China for processing before returning to the US.

I think the iphone is the best example of how the US is in denial about how dependent it is on the deep supply and manufacturing chains of China.

brickster69

Spain's CPI and core rates today. Last July was the peak and then it started to drop off quickly in September / October. If prices stay the same as today, this Autumn probably will see the headline rate going up 3-4%. That also depends on interest rate rises not bringing down prices also, which is the case now seen as most places prices are going up ( a little ) on the previous month.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120964601#Comment_120964601

Core rates that high (if replicated elsewhere in the euro area) can only mean more increases from the ECB. I was coming around to the opinion that one more in September might be it but after seeing this I think a second one will be coming as well.

brickster69

Corporate insolvencies 23.8% higher this July than last.

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/insolvenzen-verkehr-lagerei-100.html

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120966053#Comment_120966053

The peak of Spain's inflation rate was 10.8% in July 2022 and ECB interest rates were -.5% that month. It is unbelievable when you look back on it, that it was allowed to get to that point without anyone acting.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967355#Comment_120967355

Well the logic that prevailed was that it was transitory of course, until it wasn't.

Here is an interesting piece in the FT on how the impact of QT is only beginning in the US (I am guessing it will be something similar in Euroland).

“The second trillion worth of balance sheet reduction is likely to have more of an impact,” said Jay Barry, co-head of US rates strategy at JPMorgan. “The first trillion occurred against the backdrop of the federal funds rate moving rapidly higher, and the second trillion matters more because it’s coming against the backdrop of a quicker increase in the pace of Treasury supply.”

https://archive.ph/wjR7n

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967355#Comment_120967355

...and again, how does using rate rising to tackle primarily supply side lead inflation work, when in fact it only truly affects the demand side, and does incredible damage in doing so, and induces immense pressure into credit markets, and ultimately heavily indebted entities!