A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

rossie1977

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121443029#Comment_121443029

The difference is you can't use GDP to determine Irelands economy.

Over the first nine months of 2023, GDP fell by 1.3% compared to the same period in 2022 however GNP (Gross national product without multinational profits) expanded by 6%

Frank Bullitt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121443029#Comment_121443029

I was told in this thread there is no "technical" recession, it is recession or not.

Seems like there is.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121441079#Comment_121441079

You're very sure about that. They were lowered very rapidly after the last crash.

greyday

One Multinational company in particular has moved the needle enough for Ireland to enter a technical recession, domestic economy its holding up well, Irish unemployment rate has risen from record lows but a fair portion of that would be from seasonal employment declining, no doubt some households are under pressure from interest rate increases on top of high inflation ver past couple of years but typically we would see higher rates of unemployment in a domestic recession, we will likely see unemployment reach 5% but as an open economy and with the USA expected to see rates start dropping next year we will probably benefit from multinational companies loosening the purse strings towards the end of 2024.

The decline in covid medicine sales has hit Irish Corporation tax particularly hard.

brickster69

Sweden, Austria and Denmark entered recession also.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121435961#Comment_121435961

Yeah...I thought it was the most illogical or at the very least poorly written bolox I'd read in a long time

But I was looking forward to the explanation if it turned out I was wrong!

joseywhales

This is an interesting phenomenon that is sure to be politically detrimental. I think maybe it's human nature to be pessimistic. Or maybe people don't understand statistics like median.

realitykeeper

I understand office real estate is seeing a lot of vacancies. But I saw something very interesting the other day and I am fairly sure I wasn`t imagining it. I was walking past the new buildings on Penrose Wharf in Cork and a few of the offices appeared occupied. I know it is a common tactic by realtors to make offices or appartments seem like they are occupied but I didn`t know they went so far. You see, as I looked up at the "occupied" offices, I could see people siting at desks, coats on hangers by the window and so on but what made me realize they were fake was that nobody was moving. Even a person at a desk moves a little bit, but they were all completely still.

It just never occured to me they would use manakins in such a way.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121446803#Comment_121446803

....again, the metrics we use to measure the overall wellness of our economies, have very little meaning to many people now, more and more are becoming disillusioned by such measures, and theyre not that far wrong, as many of these metrics only truly measure the wellness of wealth, and ultimately those that own that wealth, for example, share markets would commonly be used in reporting this wellness, but share ownership is actually not normally distributed, so this information is largely meaningless to the average person.....

...this isnt good for all of us, even those of us that have a share in this ownership of wealth, i.e. ownership of assets etc, we now have a rapidly rising number of people completely disillusioned by such reporting, and theyre starting to turn to extremes, so, get ready!

Shauna677

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121447722#Comment_121447722

You are marvellous to be so observant.

brickster69

US NIIP stood at -6% prior to 2008 and by the end of 2022 it was nearly 80%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_international_investment_position

herbalplants

https://www.ft.com/content/f144f763-873c-4b4d-99e7-5e71ae07316d

8 million Chinese are blacklisted, these are defaulters who are not even allowed to use online payment or buy flight tickets. Debt is rampant in China

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121449820#Comment_121449820

debt is rampant globally, but china is a whole other level of debt.....

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121449820#Comment_121449820

Sure that's like a couple of hundred Irish people as a percentage.

herbalplants

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/fears-multinational-downturn-would-spark-irish-brain-drain/

Officials in the Department of Finance warned that a slide in the multinational sector could prompt a new wave of emigration as part of a triple threat to the Irish economy, along with significant hits to both the country’s corporation

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121446803#Comment_121446803

It's media driven.

We're bombarded with negativity daily. The regular economic good-news stories are rarely reported.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121450027#Comment_121450027

...this is far more than just a negative news stories, theres clearly something very wrong regarding whats occurring amongst younger generations, and theyve decided to turn to extremes to have their issues resolved, this isnt gonna end well....

GHendrix

I think most people in this country have given up. We pay high taxes, have poor services, it’s really difficult to buy a house, cost of living is high. Healthcare is in tatters.

Im 37 and couldn’t tell you what a boom feels like.

A boom these days seems to be be happy you have a job and can just about afford to live.

joseywhales

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121447979#Comment_121447979

Yeah I get the younger generations are disillusioned but I wonder if it's more to do with expectation and inequality rather than outright quality of life.

In the above survey only one of the questions relates to assets or net worth. So it's not all down to markets. Apparently they think that the median income could afford a better lifestyle 30 years ago than today. That's astonishing to me. There's some serious rose tinted glasses. Even think about information technology or better air quality or access to knowledge or even, controversially I'm sure, the proportion of one's income spent on food. Like the price of milk or potatoes or a whole chicken I would say is outrageously low.

I think when people see the lifestyle of a minority of people basically inflating a lavish lifestyle on social media or wherever, it has this weird effect on their perception of how the average person lives. Expectations are out of whack.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121450199#Comment_121450199

I think I would agree with that to some degree at least

Comparison is the thief of joy they (or Roosevelt) say

AlmightyCushion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121449834#Comment_121449834

Your math is a little off there. It is more than 0.5% of their population. 0.5% of the Irish population is 25,000.

GHendrix

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121450199#Comment_121450199

I can’t help but look at my own parents and compare sometimes.

A couple working on very low wages were able to buy a house in the heart of Dublin, buy a car and have family by mid 20s. Mortgage free by 40.

That doesn’t sound half bad to me.

I don’t think anyone has high expectations these days. People are disillusioned because the basics have become so hard to achieve.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121450355#Comment_121450355

I agree, I think the standard of living is not great.

I was last night out in a lovely restaurant, set in a decent area. It is December, the month were previously you could hardly get a booking yet the place was empty on a Saturday December night. Apart from our table of 6 and another table occupied by 3 people, there was nobody in.

That can't be a good sign 👀.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121450348#Comment_121450348

Fair enough, but it depends how it's approached ,I don't see it as an indication of a global recession , also there isn't enough details given of the offense,if they blacklist you for non payment of any fine or fee,example for non payment of tv license, more than 14000 summonses were issued in Ireland last year alone,it will be multiples of it, obviously it must be more serious but I can't see it as a chicken little statistic.

brickster69

Italy heading back to 0% CPI.

timmyntc

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/spotify-will-axe-around-1600-jobs-in-cost-cutting-effort/

so much for the tight labour market - before at 0% rates and covid stimulus it was all about overhiring, now in the first difficult macro environment in decades its all about overfiring

Oscar_Madison

And still they continue to lay off workers -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12822405/Spotify-slashing-17-workforce-affecting-1-500-workers-second-round-cuts-year-months-layoffs-Microsoft-Amazon-Alphabet.html

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121450355#Comment_121450355

Indeed, my parents had the house paid off in their thirties.

Also unemployment at the time was close to 20%, infrastructure was horrendous, cars were rust buckets, goods and services on the shelves were awful, emigration was through the roof, third level education options were abysmal, second-hand clothes were the norm.

Context is important.

Now that we can barely move for luxury SUVs on the road, people just have more money. On top of that there are far more dual income families that there were in the past, houses are of significantly higher quality and many new homes are larger in size. Population has also increased by almost 50% since my parents time. Naturally property prices have gone through the roof.

We've gone from poor country problems, to rich country problems. Having experienced both in my life time I know which I prefer.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121452328#Comment_121452328

Thats a false dichotomy though implying its a binary choice between mass unemployment of the 80s or unattainable housing of the 2020s.

The 90s and 2000s in this country saw private home ownership peak close to 80%, there was not mass unemployment or huge emigration numbers then, nor were the houses that bad*.

We like to discount this period as "ah shure the tiger, we all partied, it wasnt real" except that the majority of those who bought first homes in that period were not overleveraged or property speculators, they were just teachers, gardai, nurses and civil servants buying a home and starting a family. Something nigh on impossible now for people in the same roles.

*defective blocks aside

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121446803#Comment_121446803

One of the simplest yet engaging explanations for this I heard, is that we became so used to low inflation that we are simply incapable of processing that while prices for goods/services have increased noticeably (something we are not used to), median wages and the job markets have in fact kept up for the most part. So real wages have not been hit, but we just notice our grocery bills etc rising and assume that they are less affordable.