A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216246#Comment_119216246

What the government or media say is of no consequence regarding your assertion. The government doesn't decide if we're in recession, the media don't decide if we're in recession, public sentiment doesn't decide if we're in recession.

Recession is 2 consecutive quarters of economic decline. If you have this, you're in recession. If you don't, you're not. It's black and white, it's not subjective.

We are not in recession right now, but we might (or are likely to, depending on your view) end up in one.

joseywhales

The Fed or government policy can only do so much. We are living in a world of deteriorating resources, unless we get some unprecedented innovation, that is what will drive economic patterns in the future

Roberto_gas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119215970#Comment_119215970

Recession is not official until a reason is attached ! Take your pick !

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216235#Comment_119216235

True, but the difference is now that the currency is getting weaker by the day. Seen as Japan are 99% dependent on energy imports which are priced in USD and every raw material it's industries need to make things are priced in USD a big wave is appearing on the horizon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216466#Comment_119216466

Unfortunately information about recession you getting from politicians and media.They Decide when recession "starting"

So I would like ask you again : Do you believe that politicians and media tell you truth ?

Yes or No ?

If you will answer Yes then we could finish speak about recession.

If No then you should understand that they telling lies for many reasons.

Yes or No ?

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216607#Comment_119216607

Japan has approx 1.3 trillion in USD reserves. I'm not saying they are weather-proof, but they are well placed to ride this one out.

And that's just its sovereign reserves. It's large importing and exporting firms (think Toyota, Mitsubishi etc) will have their own dollar warchests all over the world to call on.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216769#Comment_119216769

Many countries started get rid of US dollars in trade.Who will need USA dollar when dollar will be used only in USA colonies ? For example Russia doesn't accept dollars anymore the only rubbles.Saudi Arabia gona sell oil to China for Yuan only.How much USA dollar will worth in Japan reserves after inflation in USA ?

Forget about yesterday power of dollar :) Russian ruble covered by oil gas and wheat.USA dollar covered only by FED pinky promises.

Welcome to new reality.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216842#Comment_119216842

Delusional

Have you your trip booked to Ukraine yet? Your country is calling you. Or is it you don't want to end up rotting in a ditch in Donbas because your comrades don't have the time to give you a proper burial? That's the reality of your Russian compatriots as you cheerlead from afar in a safe democratic country. Weeping Russian mothers and a country crumbling from within for the whims of a fascist.

Have the courage of your convictions and email the guys in Orwell Road how to volunteer.

enricoh

Surprised at the drop off in spending from the very start of the year. That was before much of the petrol, ESB , gas rises. It could easily be a bloodbath on the high street next winter.

A good few companies have warehoused tax owed to revenue due to COVID , it may be more beneficial to write off some of it to keep them in the game

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/sharp-drop-in-clothes-shopping-in-dublin-raises-recession-alarm-41763605.html

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216735#Comment_119216735

well, I have more faith in them than I do in the opinion of a Russian on boards.ie

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216735#Comment_119216735

You are talking absolute rubbish.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216937#Comment_119216937

Media and politicians represent lobby and bussiness groups which has financial interest.

Politicians are bussiness representatives which come to politic seeking money and power and are working for business one or other way.

Politics are pop and rock n roll songs singers.The better songs they sing the more coins ( votes ) from public they getting.

When you think they will tell you about recession comming ?

Och,sorry,they all Saints for you which telling you truth and nothing except the truth.

Keep call it rubbish and believe to rubbish you getting from them.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216990#Comment_119216990

I'm not really sure how to make it any clearer.

Politicians and the media are irrelevant. What they tell us doesn't matter.

Relax brah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119217127#Comment_119217127

Media is very relevant

Pussyhands

The Federal Reserve said it would do what is needed to get prices under control, reiterating that price stability is necessary to support a strong labor market and calling its commitment to reining in inflation “unconditional.” 

“The committee is acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials,” the Fed said in its semi-annual report to Congress released Friday. “The committee’s commitment to restoring price stability -- which is necessary for sustaining a strong labor market -- is unconditional.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-17/fed-says-commitment-to-restoring-price-stability-unconditional#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%20said%20it,reining%20in%20inflation%20%E2%80%9Cunconditional.%E2%80%9D

They're largely to blame for the situation we're in but at least they're looking to correct it. The ECB are purposely driving the bus off the cliff and will take 90% of the eurozone with it. Scumbags.

Geuze

The current inflation is not mainly due to excessive aggregate demand.

It is due to a combination of QE plus energy issues plus supply chain issues.

So increasing interest rates to choke off AD is not the correct response.

Yet some people on here are complaining that the central banks aren't increasing rates fast enough.

I'm curious as to why people are calling for more pain to be imposed on themselves?

Personally, I think some increases in rates are warranted, at least to bring them back to more normal long-term levels.

Push Record button on folks and record all media and politicians talks about no recession started or comming.

I still remember Bertie's and bonkers songs before recession started in Ireland in 2008.

We will have great laugh soon .

It's funny already see what is going on on markets and listen them talks from parallel reality they live in.

Arthur Daley

I am well aware of the supply chain issues in the motor trade and wouldn't deny it.

But surely if supply is blocked across all sectors (food, building products etc) to such an extent, that equals a dramatic fall in output, and that equals recession.

Can they credibly have it both ways, a dramatic, significant fall in supply of goods, and no fall in output/recession. Surely if we are going to blame supply, you'd have to try to be honest that large parts of the World and certain sectors are in recession.

Vicxas

We could already be in a recession in all but name, house prices are starting to collapse across the pond:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/distressed-deals-pile-up-in-canada-s-once-booming-housing-market-1.1780269

kevthegaff

Taxes from fossils fuels should be directly funded to offshore/onshore Wind, solar, hydro and possibly Atomic and major upgrade of our electricity grid. This in time would bring down cost of energy and lessen the usage of fossil fuels. At least u could sell this to the public than more public pay rises and wer still in this predicament

joseywhales

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119218744#Comment_119218744

In fairness Canada's housing market should have popped about a decade ago. Some price drops after people made multiples in appreciation over a few years is no big deal. Same with stocks and bonds particularly since 2020 but even before. If you get a 50% return followed by a 20% decline, from passive investment, you should hardly be too upset.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119218689#Comment_119218689

What politician is saying there is no recession coming? You're talking bluff there.

You say we're in recession now. Show us the GDP or modified GNI figures evidencing this.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119220073#Comment_119220073

Don't ask for things you not prepared listen because you will not hear them any way.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119220269#Comment_119220269

When we get reported GDP or modifed GNI figures showing consecutive quarterly decline, we are in recession. Until then, you're talking pony as per usual.

Any sign of you going to to whatever the Russian equivilent of Parris Island is? Your country and the trenches of Donbas are still calling.

buried

Russia might be ruled by former NKVD/KGB creeps who refuse to "f**k off" but this country is currently ruled by a totally foreign corporate/NGO and banking regime who may actually decide to "f**k off" whenever they feel like it, but probably won't because we tolerate it, until those entities decide to "f**k off" anyways. Hard to know who is in the worst position really.

Sonic the Shaghog

In fairness "the swamp of fascists your homeland has become" is a bit much, sounds like you are taring the entire Russian population, fair enough for Putin and his supporters but try not to let the hatred consume you against an entire people

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119220566#Comment_119220566

If you took my contribution that I'm tarring the entire population, I'm not. But the political system, "official Russia" and a large swathe of the population have been overtaken by fascist sentiment, and it is ascendant in the country regrettably

I'm entirely comfortable with what I've posted. The poster's crocodile tears about "racism" when he's been cheerleading the Putin war are just that, crocodile tears.

In any case, it may be useful to get back to the topic of the thread while our friend has gone to the head teacher with his puffed up complaint.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119218350#Comment_119218350

Maybe those with no mortgage or a long fixed term mortgage, who also have cash in the bank are looking for higher interest rates…….

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119220751#Comment_119220751

Same as banks give money to those who build same they give money to those who buy property.

Other words bank give money to builder and earn from it and give money to buyer which buy built property from builder and also earn from it.

Partly situation in Ireland look like builder in Ireland getting money from local bank but main money comming from USA or China because there is shortage of local buyers to buy property in Ireland.

The main government of Ireland targets since 2008 was Bring back price of property and get as much property buyers as possible.

Because local property buyers buying 10 houses for example and coockoos and investment funds buy 30-150 in one go the main government targets was create market for those who buy more and pay more.Did you hear about companies like REIT before 2008 ?

So when money will stop coming from abroad the building industry in Ireland will be dead.

Nobody care about local Irish families can't afford buy property.The Main target is jobs taxes and prices.If people can't afford buy house nobody care about it.

So when recession will start in USA then investment funds and coockoos from there will start Sell Off in Ireland and building sites in Ireland will stoped ( slow down already)

I know lads who work on timber frame factory which do houses for Glenveagh and Cairns .Factory do over time and hiring people at the moment.

On another side is hire plants were guys saying that things are mad quiet for the Summer and heavy machinery leaving sites.Also some lads from building sites already selling them sets of tools and emigrating.

Something not right.