A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122269321#Comment_122269321

Where was it shallow and short? Because it wasn't in the US or anywhere in Europe.

No one is claiming that every single sector of the economy flatlined, that is not the definition of a recession! Was the Great Depression worse? Sure, but that's not the same thing.

Real GDP growth in 2009 - that's about as global as you are ever going to get.

brickster69

Anti dumping probe started into Eu pork exports by China.

https://www.thepigsite.com/news/2024/06/eu-pork-industry-faces-nightmare-if-china-restricts-imports

herbalplants

Irish economy could be headed for another technical recession

Bank of Ireland revises down its forecast for GDP growth this year to 1%, citing ‘measurement distortions related to the multinational sector’

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334785#Comment_122334785

Apart from the fact that it is actually growing, yes.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334872#Comment_122334872

Wow. All I see in my industry is people cutting their costs, same in my client who is a wealthy Swiss.

Perhaps all rosy in your world.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334785#Comment_122334785

A recession (there's no such thing as a technical recession) needs two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Changing the annual forecast therefore has no direct link to calling it a recession or not, but even at that, as growth is still forecast, it cannot be a recession.

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335187#Comment_122335187

Slow growth doesn't equal a recession....

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334872#Comment_122334872

It feels like the domestic economy is not growing.

Agriculture. A multi billion industry in county cork is on the floor. And tourism and that broader sector are really struggling.

The bulk of the population work in SMEs, that's a rough place at the moment.

Not that anyone in govt notice .

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335187#Comment_122335187

No, my industry is in trouble. But I'm not so cloistered as to think that is reflective of the entire economy.

You have posted a headline about the economy only growing 1%. That is nowhere near a recession.

Wanderer78

what sectors are showing signs of stress at the moment?

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335921#Comment_122335921

Not the big tax paying ones it seems. Entire children’s hospital cost pretty much covered in the overrun from a single month.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/07/03/surging-corporation-tax-hands-government-unprecedented-war-chest-ahead-of-budget/

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335939#Comment_122335939

yea we re blessed with the current situation in regards corporate tax, we d be screwed otherwise

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335947#Comment_122335947

It would be great to see us use the windfall to really accelerate some major infrastructure projects which would also be one off spends. Particularly transport related.

But linked to the above, when you see the sheer volume of negative attention largely immaterial overruns on the children’s hospital generates, I’d probably steer clear of them if in government. You take all the grief early and the benefit only comes years after you’ve been chucked out of government.

Probably be more tempted to waste on some more energy credits…

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335970#Comment_122335970

yup, we re screwing this one up, we urgently need major infrastructure spending, and fast, or we could eventually lose this momentum in fdi, we clearly do not compare to other european countries in regards transport infrastructure, but this wont happen, our policy makers have their heads stuck in the past, thinking we re far less wealthier than we actually are….

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335970#Comment_122335970

Nearly 10 years and 300% increase in projected costs is immaterial?🤣

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336047#Comment_122336047

In the context of our public finances the total cost of the hospital is fairly immaterial, yes. As per above - we just got a €2bn bump on CT alone in a single month.

If you ran the really major infrastructure projects we need the overruns could be really massive. Not worth the potential blowback when payoff isn’t for a decade or more.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336081#Comment_122336081

It's cronyism and the public know it. But it could be worse, we're not Russia or NK.

If we had decent infrastructure than the blow back wouldn't be half as bad when it overshoots by absolute farcical amounts of time and money.

So it's real chicken and egg stuff.

Timing belt

don’t think it’s cronyism it’s more a case of trying to be all things to everyone instead of having vision and delivering on one big investment that would reap benefits for the future and help grow the economy organically.

SpoonyMcSpoon

Irish people prefer to see the government money spent on propping up house prices than being spent on large infrastructure projects. It is nice to be able to get genuinely wealthy in the long term by buying a house in Ireland but it comes at a cost as government money is finite. Just think of the money spent bailing out banks exposed to residential property and all the cash being thrown into the private housing market directly and indirectly by the State; it is staggering and just leaving the housing market alone (in fact unwinding a lot of legislation around planning even) to focus on infrastructure projects would be a better investment and it would insulate the economy from any global crash.

There is a real concentration risk in the economy from the reliance on corporation tax which is effectively stolen tax from other countries the way the superCorps structure their tax affairs which means that any fixing of the loopholes enabling Ireland’s corporation tax take let alone a global recession would severely expose the rest of the country and all the paper wealth in the housing market can quite easily dissipate. Meanwhile we don’t have ambitious infrastructure projects being undertaken and people will wonder where all the money went.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336428#Comment_122336428

You don't think there's cronyism involved in the children's hospital? Just pure incompetence is the other option?

I think we've enough historical evidence to take an educated guess and say it's more likely to be cronyism.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336483#Comment_122336483

…some irish people want to see the value of their property maintaining the current trend of growing, but some parents and grandparents are starting to see this as a major failure of housing policy. government money actually isnt finite, but we ve also managed to convince ourselves it is, the fact that we refuse to run deficits, which is exactly how governments create money, so by having such limits in place, we become addicted to running our economies primarily by credit created money, which is created by our global financial system, which is hardwired to maximize returns, and the easiest way to do that, is to use it to inflate the price of assets such as, and in particular, related to property. this is one of the main reasons why our property prices are not falling, and wont, as the more credit based money enters the system, the higher prices rise, this is evident all over the world now, hence why many countries are now experiencing hyper inflated property prices, this process is also called financialisation.

we probably should all be running slight deficits, and use that money to build, but dont worry, its not gonna happen, credit is the way forward, and hyper inflated property markets….

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122337802#Comment_122337802

Dont think so already rumblings about inheritance caps being increased all they have to do is die and the kids and grandkids will more than likely get a lovely big tax free wind fall the current rate is 335k watch this go up and up. The only thing going to stop this is a c-change in tact and building regs/policy and the gov building in very high numbers the modular homes quick and cheap and the current demand could be quelled in a 2/3 years. But like all other decisions these people make (RTE, Children's Hosp to name but 2 of many) they want the income tax payer to bend over and take it, as we are now the voiceless. The income tax payer is now a group that is never grouped together or taken into consideration and are kept apart through other battles.