June 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

pauldry

Prec is already on a tear MT in the South and West mostly but rain till now very low in them areas.

I thought IMT was around 14c not 15. How did that happen?

M.T. Cranium

You may have read that before an edit, I had been looking at CET (UK) and IMT values and for a while the post said near 15.0 which is where the CET now finds itself, the IMT as you say is near 14. I edited it again and took out the explanation which at this point is more confusing than helpful.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT stayed at 13.94 and that seems likely to be the peak. Will predict 13.7 as its final value.

There was enough rainfall on Friday in the grid to add 20% to the PRC value and looks like adding about 5-10 per cent a day for most of the way in now, that has PRC up to around 90 per cent already and heading for over 100 now. Valentia alone had 41 mm on Friday. So far in this rainfall event the east has almost escaped but eventually I think it will even out.

SUN would finish below 80 per cent if the rest of the month averaged 50 per cent.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208431#Comment_119208431

I also went for 130%, we could now actually be in with a chance looking at amount of rainfall forecast for next few days.

mr.stonewall

What has fell in the homemade rain gauge (kids bucket in the lawn) is north of 70mm since Thursday night. Big split down the middle of the country on rainfall

M.T. Cranium

IMT has stayed on 13.9 although it lost .06 over the past two days. PRC looks to be close to 90% now. Some locations are slightly above their normals already, others (east and far north) are closer to 60 per cent. The blend is about 90% and will probably ease into the 100-105 range with the additional rainfalls. When I say 90% I mean 90% of total monthly rather than a spot measurement which is likely close to normal now.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 13.9, fourth week average was 14.3, 0.1 below normal. Thinking it will finish on 13.8 (only 13.86 to make 13.9).

MAX 23.9, MIN 2.1

PRC has moved up to 122% thanks to an average of 296% for the fourth week. It will likely finish around 120%.

SUN 85% as the fourth week average was merely 68.8% (413/600). May finish close to 80%.

BONUS scoring already posted.

JULY 2022 thread open for business.

mr.stonewall

Below is a graphic from the farmers journal showing rainfall, SMD and soil temp. It's covers the week from the 22nd to the 28th (our monsoon). Shows the real divide in what feel and the serious difference from West to East. They have a full page to weather weekly

Credit. Irish farmers Journal

M.T. Cranium

IMT 13.8 and PRC close to 120% ... may be the 5th before we see final values confirmed.

May offer some preliminary scoring in the meantime.

M.T. Cranium

Preliminary scoring for June 2022

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS __ TOTALS

__ estimated values ___ 13.8_23.9_2.1_120_080___13.7 JC

Tae laidir ____________ 18 _ 16*_ 02 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 6 ______ 62

Sunflower3 __________ 19 _ 01*_ 09 _ 13 _ 05 ___10 ______ 57

Joe Public ___________ 19 _ 04*_ 20 _ 05 _ 02 ___ 6 ______ 56

Adam240610 _________20 _ 14*_ 17 _ 11 _ 05 ___ 8 ______ 75

Danno ______________ 21 _ 05*_ 10 _ 00 _ 01 ___ 8 ______ 45

Dasa29 _____________ 21 _ 18*_ 06 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 8 ______ 62

Pauldry _____________ 21 _ 20*_ 14 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 6 ______ 73

Artane2002 __________22 _ 10*_ 05 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 4 ______ 51

Dacogawa ___________ 22 _ 10*_ 19 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 5 ______ 76

M.T. Cranium _________22 _ 12*_ 18 _ 10 _ 05 ___11 ______ 78

sryanbruen __________ 22 _ 16*_ 06 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 4 ______ 66

___ Con Sensus ______ 22 _ 12*_ 13 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 8 ______ 68

MrSkinner ___________23 _ 06*_ 17 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 8 ______ 68

Bsal _______________ 23 _ 14*_ 13 _ 05 _ 05 ___10 ______ 70

Jpmarn _____________24 _ 02*_ 10 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 7 ______ 53

waterways __________ 24 _ 03*_ 12 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 6 ______ 54

DOCARCH ___________24 _ 17*_ 17 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 8 ______ 77

Mr stonewall ________ 24 _ 09*_ 13 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 9 ______ 75

Kindred Spirit _______ 23 _ 11*_ 11 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 5 ______ 62

johnmac ____ (-1) ____23 _ 11*_ 19 _ 09_ 05 ___ 5 _ 72-1=71

___ NormaL _________23 _ 11*_ 19 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 8 ______ 75

Appledrop __________ 21 _ 18*_ 18 _ 12 _ 10 ___12 ______ 91

Gonzo _____________ 21 _ 20*_ 03 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 3 ______ 62

__ * __ minimum progression applied to MAX scoring.

will re-post when values are confirmed, and place in scoring order. Congrats to appledrop for one of our highest scores in a while.

__ annual update and category scoring will appear then.

============================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN ___ Max sun 21st

Tae laidir ____________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 094 ___ 3.0h Johnstown

Sunflower3 __________ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 __ 10.0h Johnstown*

Joe Public ___________ 14.4 _ 27.3 _ 2.1 _ 089 _ 120 ___ 8.4h Shannon

Adam240610 _________14.3 _ 25.2 _ 1.8 _ 107 _ 105 __ 14.0h Dublin

Danno ______________ 14.2 _ 26.7 _ 3.1 _ 065 _ 125 __ 14.9h Dublin

Dasa29 _____________ 14.2 _ 24.5 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 110 __ 11.0h Belmullet

Pauldry _____________ 14.2 _ 24.2 _ 1.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 7.4h Casement

Artane2002 __________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 3.6 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 6.8h Dublin

Dacogawa ___________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 097 ___ 8.2h Dublin

M.T. Cranium _________14.1 _ 25.5 _ 2.3 _ 105 _ 105 __ 10.8h Johnstown

sryanbruen __________ 14.1 _ 25.1 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 2.5h Casement

___ Con Sensus ______ 14.1 _ 25.5 _ 2.8 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 8.4h (see below)

MrSkinner ___________14.0 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 100 _ 100 __ 12.0h Dublin

Bsal _______________ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 2.8 _ 090 _ 103 __ 11.0h Valentia

Jpmarn _____________13.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 103 ___ 9.0h Belmullet

waterways __________ 13.9 _ 27.4 _ 2.9 _ 091 _ 109 ___ 6.0h Valentia

DOCARCH ___________13.9 _ 24.9 _ 1.8 _ 095 _ 108 ___ 8.8h Casement

Mr stonewall ________ 13.7 _ 26.2 _ 2.8 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 7.8h Johnstown*

Kindred Spirit _______ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 8.0h Dublin

johnmac ____ (-1) ____13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 103_ 107 ___ 7.0h Belmullet

___ NormaL _________13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.0h (loc'n score tbd)

Appledrop __________ 13.4 _ 24.5 _ 1.9 _ 130 _ 080 __ 12.3h Johnstown

Gonzo _____________ 13.4 _ 24.2 _ 3.8 _ 098 _ 095 ___ 6.3h Dublin

appledrop

91, Sweet baby Jesus, I need to lie down🤪

I recommend having a baby to you all it seems to have worked wonders for my brain🤣

pauldry

Well done Appledrop. The last week deluge helped you! (but not me 😢)

Impressive score.

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring for June 2022

The monthly summary confirms most of the estimates with slight adjustments required for PRC and SUN. The PRC value rounded differently on their graph than on my estimate by a very small amount but it was enough to change some scores, most upwards. The SUN value was basically an extra point for the field except for Appledrop who had the 80% of my first estimate. I also reviewed the MAX scoring and discovered the middle range of the original scores was a little out of order with the lowest six which were okay so a few will notice a slight reduction for MAX, the progression is now closer to the actual differentials. (the original two at 10 and one at 9 should have been 9, 9 and 7)

Despite the changes, Appledrop still has the highest score of this contest year, I think (to be confirmed when I do the annual update in a few minutes). A pat on the back for the others who beat Normal and now I've dislocated my shoulder.

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS __ TOTALS

__ confirmed values ___ 13.8_23.9_2.1_119_085___13.7 JC

Appledrop ___________ 21 _ 18*_ 18 _ 11 _ 09 ___12 ______ 89

M.T. Cranium _________22 _ 12*_ 18 _ 10 _ 06 ___11 ______ 79

DOCARCH ___________ 24 _ 17*_ 17 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 8 ______ 78

Dacogawa ___________ 22 _ 09*_ 19 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 5 ______ 77

___ NormaL __________23 _ 11*_ 19 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 8 ______ 77

Adam240610 _________20 _ 14*_ 17 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 8 ______ 76

Pauldry _____________ 21 _ 20*_ 14 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 6 ______ 75

johnmac ____ (-1) ____ 23 _ 11*_ 19 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 5 _ 74-1=73

Mr stonewall _________ 24 _ 07*_ 13 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 9 ______ 73

Bsal ________________23 _ 14*_ 13 _ 05 _ 06 ___10 ______ 71

___ Con Sensus ______ 22 _ 12*_ 13 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 8 ______ 70

MrSkinner ___________23 _ 06*_ 17 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 8 ______ 70

sryanbruen __________ 22 _ 16*_ 06 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 4 ______ 67

Tae laidir ____________ 18 _ 16*_ 02 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 6 ______ 64

Kindred Spirit ________ 23 _ 11*_ 11 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 5 ______ 63

Dasa29 _____________ 21 _ 18*_ 06 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 8 ______ 63

Gonzo ______________ 21 _ 20*_ 03 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 3 ______ 63

Sunflower3 __________ 19 _ 01*_ 09 _ 14 _ 06 __ 10 ______ 59

Joe Public ___________ 19 _ 04*_ 20 _ 05 _ 03 ___ 6 ______ 57

waterways ___________24 _ 03*_ 12 _ 06 _ 05 ___ 6 ______ 56

Jpmarn _____________ 24 _ 02*_ 10 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 7 ______ 54

Artane2002 __________22 _ 09*_ 05 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 4 ______ 51

Danno ______________ 21 _ 05*_ 10 _ 00 _ 02 ___ 8 ______ 46

__ * __ minimum progression applied to MAX scoring.

__ annual update and category scoring will appear soon.

============================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN ___ Max sun 21st

Tae laidir ____________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 094 ___ 3.0h Johnstown

Sunflower3 __________ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 __ 10.0h Johnstown*

Joe Public ___________ 14.4 _ 27.3 _ 2.1 _ 089 _ 120 ___ 8.4h Shannon

Adam240610 _________14.3 _ 25.2 _ 1.8 _ 107 _ 105 __ 14.0h Dublin

Danno ______________ 14.2 _ 26.7 _ 3.1 _ 065 _ 125 __ 14.9h Dublin

Dasa29 _____________ 14.2 _ 24.5 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 110 __ 11.0h Belmullet

Pauldry _____________ 14.2 _ 24.2 _ 1.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 7.4h Casement

Artane2002 __________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 3.6 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 6.8h Dublin

Dacogawa ___________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 097 ___ 8.2h Dublin

M.T. Cranium _________14.1 _ 25.5 _ 2.3 _ 105 _ 105 __ 10.8h Johnstown

sryanbruen __________ 14.1 _ 25.1 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 2.5h Casement

___ Con Sensus ______ 14.1 _ 25.5 _ 2.8 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 8.4h (see below)

MrSkinner ___________14.0 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 100 _ 100 __ 12.0h Dublin

Bsal _______________ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 2.8 _ 090 _ 103 __ 11.0h Valentia

Jpmarn _____________13.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 103 ___ 9.0h Belmullet

waterways __________ 13.9 _ 27.4 _ 2.9 _ 091 _ 109 ___ 6.0h Valentia

DOCARCH ___________13.9 _ 24.9 _ 1.8 _ 095 _ 108 ___ 8.8h Casement

Mr stonewall ________ 13.7 _ 26.2 _ 2.8 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 7.8h Johnstown*

Kindred Spirit _______ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 8.0h Dublin

johnmac ____ (-1) ____13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 103_ 107 ___ 7.0h Belmullet

___ NormaL _________13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.0h (loc'n score tbd)

Appledrop __________ 13.4 _ 24.5 _ 1.9 _ 130 _ 080 __ 12.3h Johnstown

Gonzo _____________ 13.4 _ 24.2 _ 3.8 _ 098 _ 095 ___ 6.3h Dublin

M.T. Cranium

Annual Scoring Summary Jan to June 2022

The table continues to be ordered by total score. This will change to best 7/9 in September as we get closer to the final stages of the contest.

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER _______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May_Jun _TOTAL _ Best 5/6 (rank) (prev)

_01 _(01) __Appledrop ___________ 67 _ 76 _ 55 _ 68 _ 79 _ 89 __ 434 ____ 379 (1) _ (1)

01.9_(01.3)___ Con Sensus _______ 80 _ 70 _ 56 _ 77 _ 61 _ 70 __ 414 ____ 358 (1.9)_(2.2)

_02 _ (04) __Mr stonewall _________67 _ 70 _ 57 _ 78 _ 68 _ 73 __ 413 ____ 356 (2) _ (3)

_03 _(t02) __MrSkinner __________ 63 _ 63 _ 67 _ 82 _ 66 _ 70 __ 411 ____ 348 (t5)_ (4)

_04 _(05) __ Bsal _______________ 61 _ 67 _ 69 _ 68 _ 73 _ 71 __ 409 ____ 348 (t5)_ (5)

_05 _ (07) __Pauldry _____________78 _ 77 _ 57 _ 55 _ 64 _ 75 __ 406 ____ 351 (4) _ (6)

_06 _(t02) __ Tae laidir ___________70 _ 77 _ 52 _ 66 _ 76 _ 64 __ 405 ____ 353 (3) _ (2)

_t07_(06) __sunflower3 __________ 77 _ 60 _ 61 _ 68 _ 66 _ 59 __ 391 ____ 332 (t9)_ (7)

_t07_ (10) __DOCARCH __________ 78 _ 50 _ 47 _ 77 _ 61 _ 78 __ 391 ____ 344 (7) _ (9)

_09 _ (11) __john mac____________82 _ 53 _ 69 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 __ 385 ____ 332 (t9)_ (t11)

_10 _ (12) __dacogawa ___________78 _ 63 _ 58 _ 50 _ 56 _ 77 __ 382 ____ 332 (t9)_ (t13)

_11 _ (09) __Kindred Spirit ________80 _ 66 _ 48 _ 69 _ 55 _ 63 __ 381 ____ 333 (8) _ (8)

_12 _ (13) __sryanbruen __________65 _ 58 _ 49 _ 67 _ 65 _ 67 __ 371 ____ 322 (t12)_(t13)

12.0_ (15.4)__ NormaL ___________60 _ 57 _ 54 _ 68 _ 55 _ 77 __ 371 ____ 317 (14.5)_(16.0)

_13 _ (08) __Artane2002 _________ 59 _ 70 _ 55 _ 75 _ 60 _ 51 __ 370 ____ 319 (14) _ (10)

_t14_(t14) __Dasa29 _____________72 _ 50 _ 50 _ 65 _ 65 _ 63 __ 365 ____ 315 (16) _ (15)

_t14_(t14) __Gonzo ______________43 _ 49 _ 67 _ 78 _ 65 _ 63 __ 365 ____ 322 (t12)_(t11)

_16 _ (19) __M.T. Cranium ________ 65 _ 45 _ 39 _ 81 _ 46 _ 79 __ 355 ____ 316 (15) _ (17)

_17 _ (16) __Jpmarn _____________54 _ 55 _ 55 _ 76 _ 44 _ 54 __ 338 ____ 294 (18) _ (16)

_t18_(17) __waterways ___________65 _ 45 _ 47 _ 69 _ 54 _ 56 __ 336 ____ 291 (19) _ (18)

_t18_(18) __Joe Public ___________ 50 _ 57 _ 53 _ 66 _ 53 _ 57 __ 336 ____ 286 (20) _ (19)

_20 _ (20) __adam240610 ________ 54 _ 26 _ 54 _ 77 _ 47 _ 76 __ 334 ____ 308 (17) _(t20)

_21 _ (21) __Danno _____________ 30 _ 19 _ 64 _ 81 _ 57 _ 46 __ 297 ____ 278 (21) _(t20)

_22 _ (22) __200motels __________ 57 _ 49 _ --- _ 74 _ --- _ --- __180

_23 _ (23) __Gaoth laidir _________--- _ --- _ 70 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 70

_24 _ (24) __Bazlers ____________ 56 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 56

_25 _ (25) __esposito ____________52 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 52

==================================================

Updated category scoring January to June 2022

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ Total __ Adj

__ Max possible _________150 _120_120_ 90 _ 60 __ 60+ ____ 600 _ 600

Appledrop _____________135 _ 88 _ 72*_ 56*_41 __43*_____ 435 _ 434

___ Consensus _________130 _ 81 _ 67 _ 52 _ 41 __ 43*_____ 414 _ 414

Mr Stonewall ___________118 _ 70 _ 93 _ 51 _ 40 __ 41 _____ 413 _ 413

MrSkinner _____________133 _ 61 _ 53 _ 76 _ 46 __ 42 _____ 411 _ 411

Bsal __________________126 _ 80 _ 62 _ 52 _ 44*__45 _____ 409 _ 409

Pauldry _______________130 _ 82 _ 77 _ 41 _ 41 __ 36 _____ 407 _ 406

Tae laidir ______________128 _ 78 _72*_ 43 _ 41 __ 43*_____ 405 _ 405

DOCARCH _____________122 _ 81 _ 54 _ 55 _ 36 __ 43*_____ 391 _ 391

John mac _____________136 _ 61 _ 61 _ 51 _ 38 __ 39 _____ 386 _ 385

Sunflower3 ____________122 _ 81 _ 54 _ 58 _ 36 __ 40 _____ 391 _ 391

Dacogawa _____________134*_72 _ 61 _ 39 _ 38 __ 38 _____ 382 _ 382

Kindred Spirit __________125 _ 78 _ 52 _ 56*_ 36 __ 34 _____ 381 _ 381

sryanbruen ____________112 _ 88 _ 44 _ 45 _ 44*__38 _____ 371 _ 371

__ NormaL ____________107 _ 74 _ 36 _ 61 _ 43 __ 50 _____ 371 _ 371

Artane2002 ___________ 125 _ 61 _ 62 _ 42 _ 35 __ 45 _____ 370 _ 370

Dasa29 _______________116 _ 79 _ 44 _ 49 _ 39 __ 41 _____ 368 _ 365

Gonzo ________________116 _ 85*_ 43 _ 41 _ 39 __ 41 _____ 365 _ 365

M.T. Cranium __________ 115 _ 56 _ 57 _ 45 _ 39 __ 43*_____ 355 _ 355

Jpmarn _______________ 103 _ 55 _ 48 _ 47 _ 45 __ 40 _____ 338 _ 338

waterways _____________120 _ 55 _ 36 _ 50 _ 44*__31 _____ 336 _ 336

Joe Public______________109 _ 58 _ 61 _ 45 _ 37 __ 27 _____ 337 _ 336

adam240610 ___________109 _ 59 _ 57 _ 39 _ 34 __ 40 _____ 338 _ 334

Danno _________________ 86 _ 69 _ 43 _ 40 _ 27 __ 35 _____ 300 _ 297

200motels _ (3/6) ________56 _ 46 _ 18 _ 28 _ 19 __ 18 _____ 185 _ 180

Gaoth Laidir _(1/6) _______22 _ 15 _ 03 _ 11 _ 07 __ 12 ______ 70 _ 70

Bazlers _ (1/6) __________ 24 _ 07 _ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56

esposito _ (1/6) _________ 24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 03 _ 03 __ 05 ______ 52 _ 52

=======

In the table above, top score in each category is in bold, and second highest in italics. Third place now has an asterisk * .

NormaL now five ahead of top score in bonus category and is ahead of second place among forecasters for PRC.

(that does not change the forecaster rankings shown)

Two tied for top score in MAX so only third is shown in addition to them.

Two tied for third place in MIN and PRC, and three tied for third in SUN.

Two tied for top score (behind Normal) in bonus, then four are tied for third with Con Sensus.

Con Sensus not otherwise ranked 1st to 3rd in any categories (except total score, second).

------------------------------------------------

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

M.T. Cranium

So even with the slight reduction, the score of 89 for Appledrop was the highest since Dec 2019 (when mickger844posts had a 90). Last December Bsal scored 88 and that was the highest score in 2021, matching the high in 2020. All of the high scores were tabulated last December in the year-end contest roundup. There have been eight scores of 90 or higher over the decade or more that I've been keeping score. Johnmac has the highest score of all time, 94 (back in 2013). Artane2002 had a 91 earlier in 2019.

It's easy to find the year end thread, the last comment was around 5th Jan so it's back around page three of the topic menu.

dacogawa

Well done Appledrop, great score!

Wishing your shoulder a speedy recovery M.T.

M.T. Cranium

Should be great by the end of July if you catch my drift.